The Farrell and Shapiro condition revisited

The purpose of this paper is to study the consequences of using the Farrell and Shapiro (1990) sufficient condition for merger approval to sectors in which a downstream horizontal merger may also affect upstream firms. As will be shown below, in some circumstances the sign of the relevant external effect can no longer be established by considering the merger as a sequence of in finitesimal mergers, each corresponding to a marginal change in output.Mergers

Ownership Structure of Cable Networks and Competition in Local Access

In this paper, we discuss the role of cable television networks and their ownership structure in promoting competition in the local access market. First, we show that the dual ownership of a local telephone network and a cable network, compared with separate ownership, may increase or decrease incentives to invest in upgrading the cable television network. Second, we argue that separate ownership of the two networks is important to promote competition in local access.Cable Networks, Local Access, Competition

SEAM: A Small-Scale Euro Area Model With Forward-Looking Elements

This paper presents a small-scale estimated macro model for the euro area (SEAM) designed primarily to generate forecasts and to evaluate the dynamic response of the economy to unanticipated and anticipated shocks. One crucial feature of SEAM is the presence of forward-looking elements, which makes the model forecasts more robust to the 'Lucas critique', since it allows economic decisions to be moulded by the future impact of 'surprise' policy actions. In what concerns the reliability of the model-simulations, the inclusion of forward-looking behaviour enriches the dynamics of the response of the model's endogenous variables to exogenous shocks. Although the SEAM does not have the richness of full-scale macroeconometric models, as apparent interalia, by the absence of a steady-state analogue and also of some relationships important for a better characterisation of the euro area economy, the model has been shown to deliver reasonable forecasts and responses to shocks that are consistent with conventional wisdom.

Investment, dynamic consistency and the sectoral regulator's obective

We explore the separation of powers between the legislative and the executive branch of government as a way of overcoming the dynamic consistency problem of regulatory policy towards investment. We model the industry as a regulated duopoly. The incumbent is a vertically integrated firm that owns a wholesaler and a retailer. The entrant owns a retailer. Either retailer needs access to the input produced by the wholesaler to operate. The incumbent can make an investment that improves the quality of the input produced by the wholesaler. The regulator sets the access price and is unable to commit. The legislator sets the regulator's objective function and is able to commit. We derive general conditions under which having the legislator distort the regulator's objective function away from social welfare allows increasing the range of parameter values for which it is possible to induce socially desirable investment. --Investment,Dynamic Consistency,Regulator's Objective

Can Vertical Separation Reduce Non-Price Discrimination and Increase Welfare?

We investigate if vertical separation reduces non-price discrimination and increases welfare. Consider an industry consisting of a vertically integrated firm and an independent retailer, which requires access to the vertically integrated firm's wholesaler services. The wholesaler can degrade the quality of input it supplies to either of the retailers. Discrimination occurs if one of the retailers is supplied an input of lower quality than its rival. We show that separation of the vertically integrated firm reduces discrimination against the independent retailer, although it does not guarantee no-discrimination. Furthermore, with separation, the wholesaler may discriminate against the vertically integrated firm's retailer. Vertical separation impacts social welfare through two e¤ects. First, through the double-marginalization effect, which is negative. Second, through the quality degradation effect, which can be positive or negative. Hence, the net welfare impact of vertical separation is negative or potentially ambiguous.Vertigal integration; Vertical separation; Non-price discrimination.

The Farrell and Shapiro condition revisited

The purpose of this paper is to study the consequences of using the Farrell and Shapiro (1990) sufficient condition for merger approval to sectors in which a downstream horizontal merger may also affect upstream firms. As will be shown below, in some circumstances the sign of the relevant external effect can no longer be established by considering the merger as a sequence of in finitesimal mergers, each corresponding to a marginal change in output

The effects of oil dependence on growth volatility

In this thesis, we analyze the relationship between dependence on oil exports and growth volatility, controlling for other determinants. We collect annual data from 1995 to 2015 on a sample of 42 oil net exporting countries and use the standard system generalized methods of moments (GMM) approach developed by Arellano and Bover (1995) and Blundell and Bond (1998). We also investigate the channels that moderate this effect through macroeconomic policies suggested by policymakers and we find evidence that supports the mitigating effect of financial development, institutional quality and human capital on the transmission of oil dependence on growth volatility

Equity research - Diageo Plc

Mestrado em FinançasEste relatório contém uma estimação detalhada e respetiva avaliação do valor intrínseco das acções da Diageo, relativamente a junho de 2018, de acordo com o projeto final do Mestrado de Finanças do ISEG. Este projeto segue o formato recomendado pelo Instituto CFA. Diageo foi escolhida devido ao interesse pela indústria das bebidas alcoólicas assim como pela boa reputação da empresa. O preço-alvo foi calculado através de um método de avaliação absoluto, mais especificamente o método do Flow to Equity (FTE). Adicionalmente, foi utilizado um método de avaliação relativo, o método dos Múltiplos Comparáveis. Uma simulação de Monte Carlo e uma análise de sensibilidade foram também realizadas de modo a complementar a análise. Com um preço-alvo de £30.65 para junho de 2018, representando um potencial de valorização de 12.59%, face ao preço atual de £27.22, do dia 30 de junho de 2018, a nossa recomendação final para a Diageo é MANTER, tendo em conta os riscos que poderão afetar o desempenho da empresa. A nossa avaliação do risco estima um risco médio para a empresa.This report contains a detailed estimation and the respective valuation of Diageo's intrinsic share value for June 2018, according to ISEG's Master in Finance final work project. This project follows the recommended format by the CFA Institute. Diageo Plc was chosen due to the interest in the alcoholic beverages industry and due to the firm's good reputation. The price target was computed through an absolute valuation method, more specifically the Flow to Equity (FTE) method. Additionally, a relative valuation method was used, the Comparable Multiples method. A Monte Carlo simulation and sensitivity analysis were also performed in order to complement the analysis. With a price target of £30.65 for June 2018, representing an upside potential of 12.59% from June 30th, 2018, current price of £27.22, our final recommendation for Diageo Plc is to HOLD, considering the risks that may affect the firm's performance. Our risk assessment estimates a medium risk for the firm.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

O efeito do treino na detecção direta da mentira

Dissertação (mestrado)—Universidade de Brasília, Instituto de Psicologia, Departamento de Processos Psicológicos Básicos, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ciências do Comportamento, 2013.A mentira é um tema bastante estudado atualmente no exterior, mas no Brasil, existem poucas pesquisas a respeito do tema. Uma das técnicas para avaliar a detecção de mentira é a medida direta. Nesta técnica, o observador é instruído a analisar o comportamento, as emoções, as expressões faciais e a postura corporal de outra pessoa, com o objetivo de indicar se ela está dizendo verdade ou não. São necessários estudos nesta área para maior conhecimento das ciências que lidam com o comportamento humano. O objetivo deste estudo foi analisar a detecção direta da mentira pela observação das expressões faciais e avaliar o efeito da técnica do treino no Grupo Experimental. Participaram deste estudo 73 policiais militares da Academia de Polícia de Brasília, subdivididos em dois grupos (Controle e Experimental). O experimento foi composto por três etapas. Primeiramente, os participantes assistiram a dez vídeos com discursos de pessoas e julgaram, se estas falavam verdade ou mentiam, através da Escala de Percepção da Mentira na Comunicação (etapa de pré-teste). Em seguida, o Grupo Experimental foi submetido a um treinamento para detectar a mentira. Por fim, ambos os grupos assistiram dez vídeos novos com o mesmo propósito (etapa pós-teste). Os resultados constatam que o efeito do treino é válido e eficaz. A experiência profissional pode ter importância na detecção, embora o GE (sem experiência) teve maior confiança em suas respostas, no teste de detecção da mentira. Ressalta-se, ainda, que o GC obteve melhores resultados com relação à percepção do outro falando verdade ou mentira. ______________________________________________________________________________ ABSTRACTLying is a widely studied topic abroad, but in Brazil yet, there are few researches about this subject. One of the techniques to evaluate lie detection is the direct measure. In this technique, the viewer is instructed to analyze the behavior, emotions, facial expressions and body posture of someone else, in order to indicate whether the person is telling the truth or not. Studies are needed in this area for a greater knowledge of the sciences that deal with human behavior. The main objective in this study was to analyze the direct detection of lies through observation of the facial expressions and to evaluate the effect of training in the Experimental Group. The study included 73 police officers of the Police Academy in Brasilia, subdivided into two groups (Control and Experimental). The experiment consisted of three stages. First, participants watched ten videos with speeches of people and judged if they spoke the truth or lied by the Perception Scale Lies in Communication (pre-test). Then the experimental group underwent to a training to detect the lie. Finally, both groups watched ten new videos for the same purpose (the post-test). The results indicates that the effect of training is valid and effective. The professional experience may be important in detection, although EG (without experience) had greater confidence in their answers, in the lie detection test. It is noteworthy also that the CG obtained better results regarding the perception of others speaking the truth or lies

ICT and in-service teachers’ training: numbers and trends

This article presents some results of a national study developed in 2004, in Portugal, on the characterization of ICT in-service teachers’ training, offered by training certified institutions supported by PRODEP (Program for Educational Development in Portugal). “ICT AND IN-SERVICE TEACHERS’ TRAINING: A NEW REALITY INTERPRETATION” is a research study that quantified the accomplished courses from 2000 to 2003, as well as their length and audience. It also tried to collect signs of the evolution of ICT teachers’ training, regarding course type and mode, topics, expectations and evaluation. This study proved to be quite encouraging, not only for the conclusions we came across but also for the recommendations we considered judicious to leave, concerning ICT in-service teachers’ training.This article presents some results of a national study developed in 2004, in Portugal, on the characterization of ICT in-service teachers’ training, offered by training certified institutions supported by PRODEP (Program for Educational Development in Portugal). “ICT AND IN-SERVICE TEACHERS’ TRAINING: A NEW REALITY INTERPRETATION” is a research study that quantified the accomplished courses from 2000 to 2003, as well as their length and audience. It also tried to collect signs of the evolution of ICT teachers’ training, regarding course type and mode, topics, expectations and evaluation. This study proved to be quite encouraging, not only for the conclusions we came across but also for the recommendations we considered judicious to leave, concerning ICT in-service teachers’ training