On the sub-optimality cost of immediate annuitization in DC pension funds

We consider the position of a member of a defined contribution (DC) pension scheme having the possibility of taking programmed withdrawals at retirement. According to this option, she can defer annuitization of her fund to a propitious future time, that can be found to be optimal according to some criteria. This option, that adds remarkable flexibility in the choice of pension benefits, is not available in many countries, where immediate annuitization is compulsory at retirement. In this paper, we address and try to answer the questions: "Is immediate annuitization optimal? If it is not, what is the cost to be paid by the retiree obliged to annuitize at retirement?". In order to do this, we consider the model by [7] and extend it in two different ways. In the first extension, we prove a theorem that provides necessary and sufficient conditions for immediate annuitization being always optimal. The – not surprising – result is that compulsory immediate annuitization turns out to be sub-optimal. We then quantify the extent of sub-optimality, by defining the sub-optimality cost as the loss of expected present value of consumption from retirement to death and measuring it in many typical situations. We find that it varies in relative terms between 6% and 40%, depending on the risk aversion. In the second extension, we make extensive numerical investigations of the model and seek the optimal annuitization time. We find that the optimal annuitization time depends on personal factors such as the retiree's risk aversion and her subjective perception of remaining lifetime. It also depends on the financial market, via the Sharpe ratio of the risky asset. Optimal annuitization should occur a few years after retirement with high risk aversion, low Sharpe ratio and/or short remaining lifetime, and many years after retirement with low risk aversion, high Sharpe ratio and/or long remaining lifetime. This paper supports the availability of programmed withdrawals as an option to retirees of DC pension schemes, by giving an idea about the extent of loss in wealth suffered by a retiree who cannot choose programmed withdrawals, but is obliged to annuitize immediately on retirement.Defined contribution pension scheme; decumulation phase; optimal annuitization time; cost of sub-optimality

High quality exports and consumers’ trust: a development perspective

We analyze the impact of the effectiveness of internal regulation for the development of internal and export markets for credence goods, particularly for a developing country which is an exporter (or a potential exporter). In the model, since goods of actual different quality can be sold as high quality goods, expected quality is a function of consumers’ beliefs about the effectiveness of regulation. Foreign consumers, who cannot observe foreign regulation as closely as domestic ones, may partly base their expectations on the level of development of the exporting country. Low effectiveness, negative stereotype and low consumers’ trust may cause a failure in the market for high quality, and there may be a trap of underdevelopment and no high quality exports. The main policy implications are that increasing the effectiveness of regulation improves export prospects; standard setting and enforcement by external actors, such as supermarkets, or NGOs in the case of certain niche markets, is likely to be beneficial

Optimal time of annuitization in the decumulation phase of a defined contribution pension scheme

In this paper, we consider the problem of finding the optimal time of annuitization for a retiree of a defined contribution pension scheme having the possibility of choosing her own investment and consumption strategy. We exploit the model introduced by Højgaard - Vigna (2010), who formulate the problem as a combined stochastic control and optimal stopping problem. They select a quadratic loss function that penalizes both the deviance of the running consumption rate from a desired consumption rate and the deviance of the final wealth at the time of annuitization from a desired target. We make extensive numerical investigations to address relevant issues such as optimal annuitization time, size of final annuity upon annuitization, extent of improvement when annuitization is not immediate and comparison between optimal annuitization and immediate annuitization. We find that the optimal annuitization time depends on personal factors such as the retiree's risk aversion and her subjective perception of remaining lifetime. It also depends on the financial market, via the Sharpe ratio of the risky asset. Optimal annuitization should occur a few years after retirement with high risk aversion, low Sharpe ratio and/or short remaining lifetime, and many years after retirement with low risk aversion, high Sharpe ratio and/or long remaining lifetime. Moreover, we show rigorously that with typical values of the model's parameters, a pension system where immediate annuitization is compulsory for all individuals is sub-optimal within this model. We measure the cost of sub-optimality in terms of loss of expected present value of consumption from retirement to death, and we find that the cost of sub-optimality, in relative terms, varies between 6% and 40%, depending on the risk aversion. This result gives an idea about the extent of loss in wealth suffered by a retiree who cannot choose programmed withdrawals, but is obliged to annuitize immediately on retirement all her wealth.Dened contribution pension scheme, decumulation phase, optimal annuitization time, cost of sub-optimality.

Constrained portfolio choices in the decumulation phase of a pension plan

This paper deals with a constrained investment problem for a defined contribution (DC) pension fund where retirees are allowed to defer the purchase of the annuity at some future time after retirement. This problem has already been treated in the unconstrained case in a number of papers. The aim of this work is to deal with the more realistic case when constraints on the investment strategies and on the state variable are present. Due to the difficulty of the task, we consider the basic model of [Gerrard, Haberman & Vigna, 2004], where interim consumption and annuitization time are fixed. The main goal is to find the optimal portfolio choice to be adopted by the retiree from retirement to annuitization time in a Black and Scholes financial market. We define and study the problem at two different complexity levels. In the first level (problem P1), we only require no short-selling. In the second level (problem P2), we add a constraint on the state variable, by imposing that the final fund cannot be lower than a certain guaranteed safety level. This implies, in particular, no ruin. The mathematical problem is naturally formulated as a stochastic control problem with constraints on the control and the state variable, and is approached by the dynamic programming method. We give a general result of existence and uniqueness of regular solutions for the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation and, in a special case, we explicitly compute the value function for the problem and give the optimal strategy in feedback form. A numerical application of the special case - when explicit solutions are available - ends the paper and shows the extent of applicability of the model to a DC pension fund in the decumulation phase.pension fund; decumulation phase; constrained portfolio; stochastic optimal control; dynamic programming; Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation

Pension Funds with a Minimum Guarantee: A Stochastic Control Approach

In this paper we propose and study a continuous time stochastic model of optimal allocation for a defined contribution pension fund with a minimum guarantee. Usually, portfolio selection models for pension funds maximize the expected utility from final wealth over a finite horizon (the retirement time), whereas our target is to maximize the expected utility from current wealth over an infinite horizon since we adopt the point of view of the fund manager. In our model the dynamics of wealth takes directly into account the flows of contributions and benefits and the level of wealth is constrained to stay above a solvency level. The fund manager can invest in a riskless asset and in a risky asset but borrowing and short selling are prohibited. We concentrate the analysis on the effect of the solvency constraint, analyzing in particular what happens when the fund wealth reaches the allowed minimum value represented by the solvency level. The model is naturally formulated as an optimal stochastic control problem and is treated by the dynamic programming approach. We show that the value function of the problem is a regular solution of the associated Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation. Then we apply verification techniques to get the optimal allocation strategy in feedback form and to study its properties. We finally give a special example with explicit solution.In this paper we propose and study a continuous time stochastic model of optimal allocation for a defined contribution pension fund with a minimum guarantee. Usually, portfolio selection models for pension funds maximize the expected utility from final wealth over a finite horizon (the retirement time), whereas our target is to maximize the expected utility from current wealth over an infinite horizon since we adopt the point of view of the fund manager. In our model the dynamics of wealth takes directly into account the flows of contributions and benefits and the level of wealth is constrained to stay above a solvency level. The fund manager can invest in a riskless asset and in a risky asset but borrowing and short selling are prohibited. We concentrate the analysis on the effect of the solvency constraint, analyzing in particular what happens when the fund wealth reaches the allowed minimum value represented by the solvency level. The model is naturally formulated as an optimal stochastic control problem and is treated by the dynamic programming approach. We show that the value function of the problem is a regular solution of the associated Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation. Then we apply verification techniques to get the optimal allocation strategy in feedback form and to study its properties. We finally give a special example with explicit solution.Refereed Working Papers / of international relevanc

Credence goods, consumers’ trust in regulation and high quality exports

We analyze the impact of the effectiveness of internal regulation for the development of internal and export markets for credence goods, focusing on food products, particularly for a developing country which is an exporter (or a potential exporter).  In the model, since goods of actual different quality can be sold as high quality goods, expected quality is a function of consumers’ beliefs about the effectiveness of regulation.  Foreign consumers, who cannot observe foreign regulation as closely as domestic ones, may partly base their expectations on the level of development of the exporting country. Low effectiveness, negative stereotype and low consumers’ trust may cause a failure in the market for high quality, and there may be a trap of underdevelopment and no high quality exports. The main policy implications are that increasing the effectiveness of regulation improves export prospects; standard setting and enforcement by external actors, such as supermarkets, or NGOs in the case of certain niche markets, is likely to be beneficial.

Constrained Portfolio Choices in the Decumulation Phase of a Pension Plan

This paper deals with a constrained investment problem for a defined contribution (DC) pension fund where retirees are allowed to defer the purchase of the annuity at some future time after retirement. This problem has already been treated in the unconstrained case in a number of papers. The aim of this work is to deal with the more realistic case when constraints on the investment strategies and on the state variable are present. Due to the difficulty of the task, we consider the basic model of [Gerrard, Haberman & Vigna, 2004], where interim consumption and annuitization time are fixed. The main goal is to find the optimal portfolio choice to be adopted by the retiree from retirement to annuitization time in a Black and Scholes financial market. We define and study the problem at two different complexity levels. In the first level (problem P1), we only require no short-selling. In the second level (problem P2), we add a constraint on the state variable, by imposing that the final fund cannot be lower than a certain guaranteed safety level. This implies, in particular, no ruin. The mathematical problem is naturally formulated as a stochastic control problem with constraints on the control and the state variable, and is approached by the dynamic programming method. We give a general result of existence and uniqueness of regular solutions for the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation and, in a special case, we explicitly compute the value function for the problem and give the optimal strategy in feedback form. A numerical application of the special case - when explicit solutions are available - ends the paper and shows the extent of applicability of the model to a DC pension fund in the decumulation phase.This paper deals with a constrained investment problem for a defined contribution (DC) pension fund where retirees are allowed to defer the purchase of the annuity at some future time after retirement. This problem has already been treated in the unconstrained case in a number of papers. The aim of this work is to deal with the more realistic case when constraints on the investment strategies and on the state variable are present. Due to the difficulty of the task, we consider the basic model of [Gerrard, Haberman & Vigna, 2004], where interim consumption and annuitization time are fixed. The main goal is to find the optimal portfolio choice to be adopted by the retiree from retirement to annuitization time in a Black and Scholes financial market. We define and study the problem at two different complexity levels. In the first level (problem P1), we only require no short-selling. In the second level (problem P2), we add a constraint on the state variable, by imposing that the final fund cannot be lower than a certain guaranteed safety level. This implies, in particular, no ruin. The mathematical problem is naturally formulated as a stochastic control problem with constraints on the control and the state variable, and is approached by the dynamic programming method. We give a general result of existence and uniqueness of regular solutions for the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation and, in a special case, we explicitly compute the value function for the problem and give the optimal strategy in feedback form. A numerical application of the special case - when explicit solutions are available - ends the paper and shows the extent of applicability of the model to a DC pension fund in the decumulation phase.Non-Refereed Working Papers / of national relevance onl

The Management of Decumulation Risks in a Defined Contribution Pension Plan

The aim of the paper is to lay the theoretical foundations for the construction of a flexible tool that can be used by pensioners to find optimal investment and consumption choices in the distribution phase of a defined contribution pension plan. The investment/consumption plan is adopted until the time of compulsory annuitization, taking into account the possibility of earlier death. The effect of the bequest motive and the desire to buy a higher annuity than the one purchasable at retirement are included in the objective function. The mathematical tools provided by dynamic programming techniques are applied to find closed-form solutions: numerical examples are also presented. In the model, the tradeoff between the different desires of the individual regarding consumption and final annuity can be dealt with by choosing appropriate weights for these factors in the setting of the problem. Conclusions are twofold. First, we find that there is a natural time-varying target for the size of the fund, which acts as a sort of safety level for the needs of the pensioner. Second, the personal preferences of the pensioner can be translated into optimal choices, which in turn affect the distribution of the consumption path and of the final annuity