44 research outputs found
Modelling total solar irradiance since 1878 from simulated magnetograms
We present a new model of total solar irradiance (TSI) based on magnetograms
simulated with a surface flux transport model (SFTM) and the SATIRE (Spectral
And Total Irradiance REconstructions) model. Our model provides daily maps of
the distribution of the photospheric field and the TSI starting from 1878. We
first calculate the magnetic flux on the solar surface emerging in active and
ephemeral regions. The evolution of the magnetic flux in active regions is
computed using a surface flux transport model fed with the observed record of
sunspot group areas and positions. The magnetic flux in ephemeral regions is
treated separately using the concept of overlapping cycles. To model the
ephemeral region cycles, we assume that their length and amplitude are related
to that of the sunspot cycles. We then use a version of the SATIRE model to
compute the TSI. The area coverage and the distribution of different magnetic
features as a function of time, which are required by SATIRE, are extracted
from the simulated magnetograms and the modelled ephemeral region magnetic
flux. Previously computed intensity spectra of the various types of magnetic
features are employed. Our model reproduces the PMOD composite of TSI
measurements starting from 1978 at daily and rotational timescales more
accurately than the previous version of the SATIRE model computing TSI over
this period of time. The simulated magnetograms provide a more realistic
representation of the evolution of the magnetic field on the photosphere and
also allow us to make use of information on the spatial distribution of the
magnetic fields before the times when observed magnetograms were available. We
find that the secular increase in TSI since 1878 is fairly stable to
modifications of the treatment of the ephemeral region magnetic flux
Sunspot areas and tilt angles for solar cycles 7-10
Extending the knowledge about the properties of solar cycles into the past is
essential for understanding the solar dynamo. This paper aims at estimating
areas of sunspots observed by Schwabe in 1825-1867 and at calculating the tilt
angles of sunspot groups. The sunspot sizes in Schwabe's drawings are not to
scale and need to be converted into physical sunspot areas. We employed a
statistical approach assuming that the area distribution of sunspots was the
same in the 19th century as it was in the 20th century. Umbral areas for about
130,000 sunspots observed by Schwabe were obtained, as well as the tilt angles
of sunspot groups assuming them to be bipolar. There is, of course, no polarity
information in the observations. The annually averaged sunspot areas correlate
reasonably with sunspot number. We derived an average tilt angle by attempting
to exclude unipolar groups with a minimum separation of the two alleged
polarities and an outlier rejection method which follows the evolution of each
group and detects the moment it turns unipolar at its decay. As a result, the
tilt angles, although displaying considerable scatter, place the leading
polarity on average 5.85+-0.25 closer to the equator, in good agreement with
tilt angles obtained from 20th-century data sets. Sources of uncertainties in
the tilt angle determination are discussed and need to be addressed whenever
different data sets are combined. The sunspot area and tilt angle data are
provided online.Comment: accepted for publication in Astron. & Astrophy
Limits to solar cycle predictability: Cross-equatorial flux plumes
Within the Babcock-Leighton framework for the solar dynamo, the strength of a
cycle is expected to depend on the strength of the dipole moment or net
hemispheric flux during the preceding minimum, which depends on how much flux
was present in each hemisphere at the start of the previous cycle and how much
net magnetic flux was transported across the equator during the cycle. Some of
this transport is associated with the random walk of magnetic flux tubes
subject to granular and supergranular buffeting, some of it is due to the
advection caused by systematic cross-equatorial flows such as those associated
with the inflows into active regions, and some crosses the equator during the
emergence process.
We aim to determine how much of the cross-equatorial transport is due to
small-scale disorganized motions (treated as diffusion) compared with other
processes such as emergence flux across the equator. We measure the
cross-equatorial flux transport using Kitt Peak synoptic magnetograms,
estimating both the total and diffusive fluxes. Occasionally a large sunspot
group, with a large tilt angle emerges crossing the equator, with flux from the
two polarities in opposite hemispheres. The largest of these events carry a
substantial amount of flux across the equator (compared to the magnetic flux
near the poles). We call such events cross-equatorial flux plumes. There are
very few such large events during a cycle, which introduces an uncertainty into
the determination of the amount of magnetic flux transported across the equator
in any particular cycle. As the amount of flux which crosses the equator
determines the amount of net flux in each hemisphere, it follows that the
cross-equatorial plumes introduce an uncertainty in the prediction of the net
flux in each hemisphere. This leads to an uncertainty in predictions of the
strength of the following cycle.Comment: A&A, accepte
Reconstruction of spectral solar irradiance since 1700 from simulated magnetograms
We present a reconstruction of the spectral solar irradiance since 1700 using
the SATIRE-T2 (Spectral And Total Irradiance REconstructions for the Telescope
era version 2) model. This model uses as input magnetograms simulated with a
surface flux transport model fed with semi-synthetic records of emerging
sunspot groups. We used statistical relationships between the properties of
sunspot group emergence, such as the latitude, area, and tilt angle, and the
sunspot cycle strength and phase to produce semi-synthetic sunspot group
records starting in the year 1700. The semisynthetic records are fed into a
surface flux transport model to obtain daily simulated magnetograms that map
the distribution of the magnetic flux in active regions (sunspots and faculae)
and their decay products on the solar surface. The magnetic flux emerging in
ephemeral regions is accounted for separately based on the concept of extended
cycles whose length and amplitude are linked to those of the sunspot cycles
through the sunspot number. The magnetic flux in each surface component
(sunspots, faculae and network, and ephemeral regions) was used to compute the
spectral and total solar irradiance between the years 1700 and 2009. This
reconstruction is aimed at timescales of months or longer although the model
returns daily values. We found that SATIRE-T2, besides reproducing other
relevant observations such as the total magnetic flux, reconstructs the total
solar irradiance (TSI) on timescales of months or longer in good agreement with
the PMOD composite of observations, as well as with the reconstruction starting
in 1878 based on the RGO-SOON data. The model predicts an increase in the TSI
of 1.2[+0.2, -0.3] Wm-2 between 1700 and the present. The spectral irradiance
reconstruction is in good agreement with the UARS/SUSIM measurements as well as
the Lyman-alpha composite.Comment: 13 pages, 10 figure
Can surface flux transport account for the weak polar field in cycle 23?
To reproduce the weak magnetic field on the polar caps of the Sun observed
during the declining phase of cycle 23 poses a challenge to surface flux
transport models since this cycle has not been particularly weak. We use a
well-calibrated model to evaluate the parameter changes required to obtain
simulated polar fields and open flux that are consistent with the observations.
We find that the low polar field of cycle 23 could be reproduced by an increase
of the meridional flow by 55% in the last cycle. Alternatively, a decrease of
the mean tilt angle of sunspot groups by 28% would also lead to a similarly low
polar field, but cause a delay of the polar field reversals by 1.5 years in
comparison to the observations.Comment: 9 pages, 8 figures, Space Science Reviews, accepte
Solar dynamo model with nonlocal alpha-effect
The first results of the solar dynamo model that allows for the diamagnetic
effect of inhomogeneous turbulence and the nonlocal alpha-effect due to the
rise of magnetic loops are discussed. The nonlocal alpha-effect is not subject
to the catastrophic quenching related to the conservation of magnetic helicity.
Given the diamagnetic pumping, the magnetic fields are concentrated near the
base of the convection zone, although the distributed-type model covers the
entire thickness of the convection zone. The magnetic cycle period, the
equatorial symmetry of the field, its meridional drift, and the
polar-to-toroidal field ratio obtained in the model are in agreement with
observations. There is also some disagreement with observations pointing the
ways of improving the model.Comment: To appear in Astronomy Letters, 10 pages, 5 figure
Recovering Joys Law as a Function of Solar Cycle, Hemisphere, and Longitude
Bipolar active regions in both hemispheres tend to be tilted with respect to
the East West equator of the Sun in accordance with Joys law that describes the
average tilt angle as a function of latitude. Mt. Wilson observatory data from
1917 to 1985 are used to analyze the active-region tilt angle as a function of
solar cycle, hemisphere, and longitude, in addition to the more common
dependence on latitude. Our main results are as follows: i) We recommend a
revision of Joys law toward a weaker dependence on latitude (slope of 0.13 to
0.26) and without forcing the tilt to zero at the Equator. ii) We determine
that the hemispheric mean tilt value of active regions varies with each solar
cycle, although the noise from a stochastic process dominates and does not
allow for a determination of the slope of Joys law on an 11-year time scale.
iii) The hemispheric difference in mean tilt angles, 1.1 degrees + 0.27, over
Cycles 16 to 21 was significant to a three-sigma level, with average tilt
angles in the northern and southern hemispheres of 4.7 degrees + 0.26 and 3.6
degrees + 0.27 respectively. iv) Area-weighted mean tilt angles normalized by
latitude for Cycles 15 to 21 anticorrelate with cycle strength for the southern
hemisphere and whole-Sun data, confirming previous results by Dasi-Espuig,
Solanki, Krivova, et al. (2010, Astron. Astrophys. 518, A7). The northern
hemispheric mean tilt angles do not show a dependence on cycle strength. vi)
Mean tilt angles do not show a dependence on longitude for any hemisphere or
cycle. In addition, the standard deviation of the mean tilt is 29 to 31 degrees
for all cycles and hemispheres indicating that the scatter is due to the same
consistent process even if the mean tilt angles vary.Comment: 13 pages, 4 figures, 3 table
Coronal Magnetic Field Evolution from 1996 to 2012: Continuous Non-potential Simulations
Coupled flux transport and magneto-frictional simulations are extended to simulate the continuous magnetic-field evolution in the global solar corona for over 15 years, from the start of Solar Cycle 23 in 1996. By simplifying the dynamics, our model follows the build-up and transport of electric currents and free magnetic energy in the corona, offering an insight into the magnetic structure and topology that extrapolation-based models cannot. To enable these extended simulations, we have implemented a more efficient numerical grid, and have carefully calibrated the surface flux-transport model to reproduce the observed large-scale photospheric radial magnetic field, using emerging active regions determined from observed line-of-sight magnetograms. This calibration is described in some detail. In agreement with previous authors, we find that the standard flux-transport model is insufficient to simultaneously reproduce the observed polar fields and butterfly diagram during Cycle 23, and that additional effects must be added. For the best-fit model, we use automated techniques to detect the latitude–time profile of flux ropes and their ejections over the full solar cycle. Overall, flux ropes are more prevalent outside of active latitudes but those at active latitudes are more frequently ejected. Future possibilities for space-weather prediction with this approach are briefly assessed
The Maunder minimum (1645-1715) was indeed a grand minimum: a reassessment of multiple datasets
Aims.
Although the time of the Maunder minimum (1645–1715) is widely known as a period of extremely low solar activity, it is still being debated whether solar activity during that period might have been moderate or even higher than the current solar cycle (number 24). We have revisited all existing evidence and datasets, both direct and indirect, to assess the level of solar activity during the Maunder minimum.
Methods.
We discuss the East Asian naked-eye sunspot observations, the telescopic solar observations, the fraction of sunspot active days, the latitudinal extent of sunspot positions, auroral sightings at high latitudes, cosmogenic radionuclide data as well as solar eclipse observations for that period. We also consider peculiar features of the Sun (very strong hemispheric asymmetry of the sunspot location, unusual differential rotation and the lack of the K-corona) that imply a special mode of solar activity during the Maunder minimum.
Results.
The level of solar activity during the Maunder minimum is reassessed on the basis of all available datasets.
Conclusions.
We conclude that solar activity was indeed at an exceptionally low level during the Maunder minimum. Although the exact level is still unclear, it was definitely lower than during the Dalton minimum of around 1800 and significantly below that of the current solar cycle #24. Claims of a moderate-to-high level of solar activity during the Maunder minimum are rejected with a high confidence level