The capacity of refugia for conservation planning under climate change

Refugia – areas that may facilitate the persistence of species during large-scale, long-term climatic change – are increasingly important for conservation planning. There are many methods for identifying refugia, but the ability to quantify their potential for facilitating species persistence (ie their “capacity”) remains elusive. We propose a flexible framework for prioritizing future refugia, based on their capacity. This framework can be applied through various modeling approaches and consists of three steps: (1) definition of scope, scale, and resolution; (2) identification and quantification; and (3) prioritization for conservation. Capacity is quantified by multiple indicators, including environmental stability, microclimatic heterogeneity, size, and accessibility of the refugium. Using an integrated, semi-mechanistic modeling technique, we illustrate how this approach can be implemented to identify refugia for the plant diversity of Tasmania, Australia. The highest- capacity climate-change refugia were found primarily in cool, wet, and topographically complex environments, several of which we identify as high priorities for biodiversity conservation and management

A Pilot study of the Sharing Risk Information Tool (ShaRIT) for Families with Hereditary Breast and Ovarian Cancer Syndrome

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Individuals who carry deleterious BRCA mutations face significantly elevated risks of breast, ovarian, and other cancers. These individuals are also responsible for informing relatives of their increased risk for carrying the family BRCA mutation. Few interventions have been developed to facilitate this family communication process.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We developed the Sharing Risk Information Tool (ShaRIT), a personalized educational intervention, to support BRCA carriers as they discuss BRCA positive results and their implications with relatives. We conducted a pilot study of 19 BRCA carriers identified through the University of California San Francisco Cancer Risk Program. Our study had two aims: 1) to assess the feasibility and acceptability of ShaRIT, and 2) describe characteristics associated with increased family communication and BRCA testing. Participants in our study were divided into two groups: those who had not received ShaRIT as part of their genetic counseling protocol (control group, n = 10) and those who received ShaRIT (n = 9).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>All 9 women who received ShaRIT reported that it was a useful resource. Characteristics associated with increased sharing and testing included: female gender, degree of relationship, and frequency of communication. Increased pedigree knowledge showed a trend toward higher rates of sharing.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Both participants and genetic counselors considered ShaRIT a well-received, comprehensive tool for disseminating individual risk information and clinical care guidelines to Hereditary Breast and Ovarian Cancer Syndrome families. Because of this, ShaRIT has been incorporated as standard of care at our institution. In the future we hope to evaluate the effects of ShaRIT on family communication and family testing in larger populations of BRCA positive families.</p

Association of tamoxifen use and reduced risk of contralateral breast cancer for BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers

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Host-Associated Bacteriophage Isolation and Preparation for Viral Metagenomics.

Prokaryotic viruses, or bacteriophages, are viruses that infect bacteria and archaea. These viruses have been known to associate with host systems for decades, yet only recently have their influence on the regulation of host-associated bacteria been appreciated. These studies have been conducted in many host systems, from the base of animal life in the Cnidarian phylum to mammals. These prokaryotic viruses are useful for regulating the number of bacteria in a host ecosystem and for regulating the strains of bacteria useful for the microbiome. These viruses are likely selected by the host to maintain bacterial populations. Viral metagenomics allows researchers to profile the communities of viruses associating with animal hosts, and importantly helps to determine the functional role these viruses play. Further, viral metagenomics show the sphere of viral involvement in gene flow and gene shuffling in an ever-changing host environment. The influence of prokaryotic viruses could, therefore, have a clear impact on host health

The Gnat and the Bull: Do Climate Outlook Forums Make a Difference?

Little has been documented about the benefits and impacts of the recent growth in climate services, despite a growing call to justify their value and stimulate investment. Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs), an integral part of the public and private enterprise of climate services, have been implemented over the last 20 years with the objectives of producing and disseminating seasonal climate forecasts to inform improved climate risk management and adaptation. In proposing guidance on how to measure the success of RCOFs, we offer three broad evaluative categories that are based on the primary stated goals of the RCOFs: 1) quality of the climate information used and developed at RCOFs; 2) legitimacy of RCOF processes focused on consensus forecasts, broad user engagement, and capacity building; and 3) usability of the climate information produced at RCOFs. Evaluating the quality of information relies largely on quantitative measures and statistical techniques that are standardized and transferrable, but assessing the RCOF processes and perceived usability of RCOF products will necessitate a combination of quantitative and qualitative social science methods that are sensitive to highly variable regional contexts. As RCOFs have taken up different formats and procedures to adapt to diverse institutional and political settings and varied technical and scientific capacities, objective evaluation methods adopted should align with the goals and intent of the evaluation and be performed in a participatory, coproduction manner where producers and users of climate services together design the evaluation metrics and processes. To fully capture the potential benefits of the RCOFs, it may be necessary to adjust or recalibrate the goals of these forums to better fit the evolving landscape of climate services development, needs, and provision

Evaluating the Quality of Research into a Single Prognostic Biomarker: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of 83 Studies of C-Reactive Protein in Stable Coronary Artery Disease

Background Systematic evaluations of the quality of research on a single prognostic biomarker are rare. We sought to evaluate the quality of prognostic research evidence for the association of C-reactive protein (CRP) with fatal and nonfatal events among patients with stable coronary disease. Methods and Findings We searched MEDLINE (1966 to 2009) and EMBASE (1980 to 2009) and selected prospective studies of patients with stable coronary disease, reporting a relative risk for the association of CRP with death and nonfatal cardiovascular events. We included 83 studies, reporting 61,684 patients and 6,485 outcome events. No study reported a prespecified statistical analysis protocol; only two studies reported the time elapsed (in months or years) between initial presentation of symptomatic coronary disease and inclusion in the study. Studies reported a median of seven items (of 17) from the REMARK reporting guidelines, with no evidence of change over time. The pooled relative risk for the top versus bottom third of CRP distribution was 1.97 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.78–2.17), with substantial heterogeneity (I2 = 79.5). Only 13 studies adjusted for conventional risk factors (age, sex, smoking, obesity, diabetes, and low-density lipoprotein [LDL] cholesterol) and these had a relative risk of 1.65 (95% CI 1.39–1.96), I2 = 33.7. Studies reported ten different ways of comparing CRP values, with weaker relative risks for those based on continuous measures. Adjusting for publication bias (for which there was strong evidence, Egger's p<0.001) using a validated method reduced the relative risk to 1.19 (95% CI 1.13–1.25). Only two studies reported a measure of discrimination (c-statistic). In 20 studies the detection rate for subsequent events could be calculated and was 31% for a 10% false positive rate, and the calculated pooled c-statistic was 0.61 (0.57–0.66). Conclusion Multiple types of reporting bias, and publication bias, make the magnitude of any independent association between CRP and prognosis among patients with stable coronary disease sufficiently uncertain that no clinical practice recommendations can be made. Publication of prespecified statistical analytic protocols and prospective registration of studies, among other measures, might help improve the quality of prognostic biomarker research

A cross-sectional survey of the prevalence of environmental tobacco smoke preventive care provision by child health services in Australia

Background: Despite the need for a reduction in levels of childhood exposure to environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) being a recognised public health goal, the delivery of ETS preventive care in child health service settings remains a largely unstudied area. The purpose of this study was to determine the prevalence of ETS preventive care in child health services; differences in the provision of care by type of service; the prevalence of strategies to support such care; and the association between care support strategies and care provision. Method: One-hundred and fifty-one (83%) child health service managers within New South Wales, Australia completed a questionnaire in 2002 regarding the: assessment of parental smoking and child ETS exposure; the provision of parental smoking cessation and ETS-exposure reduction advice; and strategies used to support the provision of such care. Child health services were categorised based on their size and case-mix, and a chi-square analysis was performed to compare the prevalence of ETS risk assessment and ETS prevention advice between service types. Logistic regression analysis was used to examine associations between the existence of care support strategies and the provision of ETS risk assessment and ETS exposure prevention advice. Results: A significant proportion of services reported that they did not assess parental smoking status (26%), and reported that they did not assess the ETS exposure (78%) of any child. Forty four percent of services reported that they did not provide smoking cessation advice and 20% reported they did not provide ETS exposure prevention advice. Community based child and family health services reported a greater prevalence of ETS preventive care compared to other hospital based units. Less than half of the services reported having strategies to support the provision of ETS preventive care. The existence of such support strategies was associated with greater odds of care provision. Conclusions: The existence of major gaps in recommended ETS preventive care provision suggests a need for additional initiatives to increase such care delivery. The low prevalence of strategies that support such care delivery suggests a potential avenue to achieve this outcome