A New Framework for Analyzing and Managing Macrofinancial Risks of an Economy

The high cost of international economic and financial crises highlights the need for a comprehensive framework to assess the robustness of national economic and financial systems. This paper proposes a new comprehensive approach to measure, analyze, and manage macroeconomic risk based on the theory and practice of modern contingent claims analysis (CCA). We illustrate how to use the CCA approach to model and measure sectoral and national risk exposures, and analyze policies to offset their potentially harmful effects. This new framework provides economic balance sheets for inter-linked sectors and a risk accounting framework for an economy. CCA provides a natural framework for analysis of mismatches between an entity's assets and liabilities, such as currency and maturity mismatches on balance sheets. Policies or actions that reduce these mismatches will help reduce risk and vulnerability. It also provides a new framework for sovereign capital structure analysis. It is useful for assessing vulnerability, policy analysis, risk management, investment analysis, and design of risk control strategies. Both public and private sector participants can benefit from pursuing ways to facilitate more efficient macro risk accounting, improve price and volatility discovery, and expand international risk intermediation activities.

Nebraska Home Rule Project: Nebraska Municipal Survey

The purpose of the survey was to collect information from Nebraska municipal officials on how state government affects their operations and to identify potential areas for improvement

Cobalt complexes: correlation of redox potential with effectivity as oxygenation catalysts

The redox potential of a series of cobalt(II) chelates correlates with their properties as either oxygen carriers or phosphine oxidation catalysts

Precipitation probabilities in the North Central States

Cover title.Includes bibliographical references

New Framework for Measuring and Managing Macrofinancial Risk and Financial Stability

This paper proposes a new approach to improve the way central banks can analyze and manage the financial risks of a national economy. It is based on the modern theory and practice of contingent claims analysis (CCA), which is successfully used today at the level of individual banks by managers, investors, and regulators. The basic analytical tool is the risk-adjusted balance sheet, which shows the sensitivity of the enterprise’s assets and liabilities to external “shocks.” At the national level, the sectors of an economy are viewed as interconnected portfolios of assets, liabilities, and guarantees—some explicit and others implicit. Traditional approaches have difficulty analyzing how risks can accumulate gradually and then suddenly erupt in a full-blown crisis. The CCA approach is well-suited to capturing such “non-linearities” and to quantifying the effects of asset-liability mismatches within and across institutions. Risk-adjusted CCA balance sheets facilitate simulations and stress testing to evaluate the potential impact of policies to manage systemic risk.

Planetary astronomy

The authors profile the field of astronomy, identify some of the key scientific questions that can be addressed during the decade of the 1990's, and recommend several facilities that are critically important for answering these questions. Scientific opportunities for the 1990' are discussed. Areas discussed include protoplanetary disks, an inventory of the solar system, primitive material in the solar system, the dynamics of planetary atmospheres, planetary rings and ring dynamics, the composition and structure of the atmospheres of giant planets, the volcanoes of IO, and the mineralogy of the Martian surface. Critical technology developments, proposed projects and facilities, and recommendations for research and facilities are discussed

Book Reviews

Understanding Biblical Theology: A Comparison of Theory and PracticeEdward W. Klink III and Darian R. Lockett Grand Rapids: Zondervan 2012, 193 pp. paper, $17.99 ISBN: 978-0310-49223-8Reviewed by Ruth Anne Reese Prepositions and Theology in the Greek New TestamentMurray J. Harris Grand Rapids: Zondervan 2012, 304 pp. cloth,$42.99 ISBN: 978-0310-49392-1 Reviewed by Dale F. Walker The New Testament: A Historical and Theological IntroductionDonald Alfred Hagner Grand Rapids: Baker Academic 2012, 896 pp. cloth, $49.99 ISBN: 978-0-8010-3931-7 Reviewed by Randall Hardman Contextualization in World Missions: Mapping and Assessing Evangelical ModelsA. Scott Moreau Grand Rapids: Kregel Publications 2012, 429 pp. paper,$28.99 ISBN: 978-0-8254-3389-4 Reviewed by Robert A. Danielson The Right Church: Live Like the First ChristiansCharles E. Gutenson Nashville: Abingdon Press 2012, 194 pp. paper, $14.99ISBN: 978-1-4267-4911-7Reviewed by Brian Yeich Interfaith Dialogue in PracticeDaniel S. Brown, Jr., ed. Kansas City: Rockhurst University Press 2012, 160 pp. paper,$30.00 ISBN: 978-1-886761-32-2 Reviewed by Robert A. Danielso

Measuring Galaxy Star Formation Rates From Integrated Photometry: Insights from Color-Magnitude Diagrams of Resolved Stars

We use empirical star formation histories (SFHs), measured from HST-based resolved star color-magnitude diagrams, as input into population synthesis codes to model the broadband spectral energy distributions (SEDs) of ~50 nearby dwarf galaxies (6.5 < log M/M_* < 8.5, with metallicities ~10% solar). In the presence of realistic SFHs, we compare the modeled and observed SEDs from the ultraviolet (UV) through near-infrared (NIR) and assess the reliability of widely used UV-based star formation rate (SFR) indicators. In the FUV through i bands, we find that the observed and modeled SEDs are in excellent agreement. In the Spitzer 3.6micron and 4.5micron bands, we find that modeled SEDs systematically over-predict observed luminosities by up to ~0.2 dex, depending on treatment of the TP-AGB stars in the synthesis models. We assess the reliability of UV luminosity as a SFR indicator, in light of independently constrained SFHs. We find that fluctuations in the SFHs alone can cause factor of ~2 variations in the UV luminosities relative to the assumption of a constant SFH over the past 100 Myr. These variations are not strongly correlated with UV-optical colors, implying that correcting UV-based SFRs for the effects of realistic SFHs is difficult using only the broadband SED. Additionally, for this diverse sample of galaxies, we find that stars older than 100 Myr can contribute from <5% to100% of the present day UV luminosity, highlighting the challenges in defining a characteristic star formation timescale associated with UV emission. We do find a relationship between UV emission timescale and broadband UV-optical color, though it is different than predictions based on exponentially declining SFH models. Our findings have significant implications for the comparison of UV-based SFRs across low-metallicity populations with diverse SFHs.Comment: 22 pages, 15 figures, ApJ accepte