Using Real Options to Evaluate Investments in Ethanol Facilities

This paper uses real option analysis to evaluate investment decisions in ethanol facilities. First, we consider the option to expand the scale of a conventional ethanol plant. Second, we evaluate the option to choose a production technology given three drymilling choices – a conventional natural gas-fueled plant, a stover-fueled plant, and a stover-plus-syrup-fueled plant. We develop input-output coefficients and annual cash flow projections for a hypothetical small ethanol plant (50 million gallon capacity) using available industry and market price data. Scenario analysis is done to evaluate the effect of profitability and volatility on the option to expand. We find that the best decision during 2001-07 is often to expand, since the net present values of the investment project are positive. However, there are states in the binomial tree where it is best to wait. In relatively few such states the expansion project is simply rejected. During the early part of the period low profitability and high volatility more frequently favor strategies of waiting to invest until prices and profitability improve. During the latter part of the period (2005-07), profitability is sharply higher and most often the best strategy is to invest in the expansion. This result is consistent with the observed rapid increase in industry production capacity during 2005- 07. However, more recent market developments, sharply higher corn and natural gas prices and slightly higher ethanol prices during late 2007-early 2008, have combined to sharply reduce expected plant cash flow and profitability and cash flow volatility. The implication is that plant investment plans in 2008 would be increasingly placed on hold, which the real option model correctly predicts. The real option analysis of technology choice indicates that the stover-fueled technologies are most often chosen when compared to a natural gas-fueled conventional technology based on the prices that existed during 2001-2007.Financial Economics, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

The radiative decay of ψ(3770)\psi(3770) into the predicted scalar state X(3700)

We calculate the radiative decay width of the $\psi(3770)$ into the dynamically generated scalar resonance X(3700) which is predicted in a previous paper. The results show that it is possible that the upgraded BEPC-II facility will generate enough statistics in order to observe this decay and thus confirm the existence of the X(3700).Comment: 5 pages, 1 figur

Generalizing the transition from amplitude to oscillation death in coupled oscillators

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Catalytic RNA and synthesis of the peptide bond

We are studying whether the L-19 IVS ribozyme from Tetrahymena thermophila can catalyze the formation of the peptide bond when it is supplied with synthetic aminoacyl oligonucleotides. If this reaction works, it could give us some insight into the mechanism of peptide bond formation and the origin of coded protein synthesis. Two short oligoribonucleotides, CCCCC and a protected form of CCCCU were prepared; the former was made by the controlled hydrolysis of Poly(C), and the later by multistep chemical synthesis from the protected monomers. The homopentamer was then aminocylated using C-14 labelled Boc-protected glycine imidazolide. This aminoacylated oligo-nucleotide has now been shown to enter the active site of the L-19 IVS, and aminoacyl transfer, and peptide bond formation reactions are being sought. Our synthesis of CCCCU made us aware of the inadequacy of many of the 2'- hydroxyl protecting groups that are in use today and we therefore designed a new 2'- protecting group that is presently being tested

A new metric for rotating charged Gauss-Bonnet black holes in AdS spaces

This paper presents a new metric for slowly rotating charged Gauss-Bonnet black holes in higher dimensional anti-de Sitter spaces. Taking the angular momentum parameter $a$ up to second order, the slowly rotating charged black hole solutions are obtained by working directly in the action.Comment: 11 pages and accepted by Chin. Phys.

Experimental implementation of high-fidelity unconventional geometric quantum gates using NMR interferometer

Following a key idea of unconventional geometric quantum computation developed earlier [Phys. Rev. Lett. 91, 197902 (2003)], here we propose a more general scheme in such an intriguing way: $\gamma_{d}=\alpha_{g}+\eta \gamma _{g}$, where $\gamma_{d}$ and $\gamma_{g}$ are respectively the dynamic and geometric phases accumulated in the quantum gate operation, with $\eta$ as a constant and $\alpha_{g}$ being dependent only on the geometric feature of the operation. More arrestingly, we demonstrate the first experiment to implement a universal set of such kind of generalized unconventional geometric quantum gates with high fidelity in an NMR system.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figure