Sound and Fury: McCloskey and Significance Testing in Economics

For about twenty years, Deidre McCloskey has campaigned to convince the economics profession that it is hopelessly confused about statistical significance. She argues that many practices associated with significance testing are bad science and that most economists routinely employ these bad practices: “Though to a child they look like science, with all that really hard math, no science is being done in these and 96 percent of the best empirical economics. . .” (McCloskey 1999). McCloskey’s charges are analyzed and rejected. That statistical significance is not economic significance is a jejune and uncontroversial claim, and there is no convincing evidence that economists systematically mistake the two. Other elements of McCloskey’s analysis of statistical significance are shown to be ill-founded, and her criticisms of practices of economists are found to be based in inaccurate readings and tendentious interpretations of their work. Properly used, significance tests are a valuable tool for assessing signal strength, for assisting in model specification, and for determining causal structure.statistical significance, economic significance, significance testing, regression analysis, econometric methodology, Deirdre McCloskey, Neyman-Pearson testing

Using a cognitive architecture to examine what develops

Different theories of development propose alternative mechanisms by which development occurs. Cognitive architectures can be used to examine the influence of each proposed mechanism of development while keeping all other mechanisms constant. An ACT-R computational model that matched adult behavior in solving a 21-block pyramid puzzle was created. The model was modified in three ways that corresponded to mechanisms of development proposed by developmental theories. The results showed that all the modifications (two of capacity and one of strategy choice) could approximate the behavior of 7-year-old children on the task. The strategy-choice modification provided the closest match on the two central measures of task behavior (time taken per layer, r = .99, and construction attempts per layer, r = .73). Modifying cognitive architectures is a fruitful way to compare and test potential developmental mechanisms, and can therefore help in specifying “what develops.

Further evidence for increased macrophage migration inhibitory factor expression in prostate cancer

BACKGROUND: Macrophage migration inhibitory factor (MIF) is a cytokine associated with prostate cancer, based on histologic evidence and circulating (serum) levels. Recent studies from another laboratory failed to document these results. This study's aims were to extend and confirm our previous data, as well as to define possible mechanisms for the discrepant results. Additional aims were to examine MIF expression, as well as the location of MIF's receptor, CD74, in human prostatic adenocarcinoma compared to matched benign prostate. METHODS: MIF amounts were determined in random serum samples remaining following routine PSA screening by ELISA. Native, denaturing and reducing polyacrylamide gels and Western blot analyses determined the MIF form in serum. Prostate tissue arrays were processed for MIF in situ hybridization and immunohistochemistry for MIF and CD74. MIF released into culture medium from normal epithelial, LNCaP and PC-3 cells was detected by Western blot analysis. RESULTS: Median serum MIF amounts were significantly elevated in prostate cancer patients (5.87 ± 3.91 ng/ml; ± interquartile range; n = 115) compared with patients with no documented diagnosis of prostate cancer (2.19 ± 2.65 ng/ml; n = 158). ELISA diluent reagents that included bovine serum albumin (BSA) significantly reduced MIF serum detection (p < 0.01). MIF mRNA was localized to prostatic epithelium in all samples, but cancer showed statistically greater MIF expression. MIF and its receptor (CD74) were localized to prostatic epithelium. Increased secreted MIF was detected in culture medium from prostate cancer cell lines (LNCaP and PC-3). CONCLUSION: Increased serum MIF was associated with prostate cancer. Diluent reagents that included BSA resulted in MIF serum immunoassay interference. In addition, significant amounts of complexed MIF (180 kDa under denaturing conditions by Western blot) found in the serum do not bind to the MIF capture antibody. Increased MIF mRNA expression was observed in prostatic adenocarcinoma compared to benign tissue from matched samples, supporting our earlier finding of increased MIF gene expression in prostate cancer

Identifying Primordial Substructure in NGC 2264

We present new Spitzer Space Telescope observations of the young cluster NGC2264. Observations at 24 micron with the Multiband Imaging Photometer has enabled us to identify the most highly embedded and youngest objects in NGC2264. This letter reports on one particular region of NGC2264 where bright 24 micron sources are spatially configured in curious linear structures with quasi-uniform separations. The majority of these sources (~60% are found to be protostellar in nature with Class I spectral energy distributions. Comparison of their spatial distribution with sub-millimeter data from Wolf-Chase (2003) and millimeter data from Peretto et al. (2005) shows a close correlation between the dust filaments and the linear spatial configurations of the protostars, indicating that star formation is occurring primarily within dense dusty filaments. Finally, the quasi-uniform separations of the protostars are found to be comparable in magnitude to the expected Jeans length suggesting thermal fragmentation of the dense filamentary material.Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJL, 5 pages, 4 figures. Color version available from the following webpages: http://cfa-www.harvard.edu/~pteixeir/ and http://cfa-www.harvard.edu/~clada

Spitzer 24 micron Survey of Debris Disks in the Pleiades

We performed a 24 micron 2 Deg X 1 Deg survey of the Pleiades cluster, using the MIPS instrument on Spitzer. Fifty four members ranging in spectral type from B8 to K6 show 24 micron fluxes consistent with bare photospheres. All Be stars show excesses attributed to free-free emission in their gaseous envelopes. Five early-type stars and four solar-type stars show excesses indicative of debris disks. We find a debris disk fraction of 25 % for B-A members and 10 % for F-K3 ones. These fractions appear intermediate between those for younger clusters and for the older field stars. They indicate a decay with age of the frequency of the dust-production events inside the planetary zone, with similar time scales for solar-mass stars as have been found previously for A-stars.Comment: accepted to Ap

Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics for Relativistic Heavy Ion Collisions

The method of smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) is developped appropriately for the study of relativistic heavy ion collision processes. In order to describe the flow of a high energy but low baryon number density fluid, the entropy is taken as the SPH base. We formulate the method in terms of the variational principle. Several examples show that the method is very promising for the study of hadronic flow in RHIC physics.Comment: 14 pages, 8figure

Discovery of a 0.15" Binary Brown Dwarf 2MASSJ 1426316+155701 With Gemini/Hokupa'a Adaptive Optics

Use of the highly sensitive Hokupa'a curvature wavefront sensor has allowed for the first time direct adaptive optics (AO) guiding on brown dwarfs and VLM stars (SpT=M7-L2). An initial survey of 9 such objects discovered one 0.15" binary (2MASSJ 1426316+155701). The companion is about half as bright as the primary (Delta K = 0.61+/-0.05$, Delta H = 0.70+/-0.05) and has even redder colors H-K=0.59+/-0.14 than the primary. The blended spectrum of the binary has been previously determined to be M9.0. We modeled a blend of an M8.5 template and a L1-L3 template reproducing a M9.0 spectrum in the case of Delta K = 0.61+/-0.05,Delta H = 0.70\pm0.05$. These spectral types also match the observed H-K colors of each star. Based the previously observed low space motion and $H_{\alpha}$ activity we assign an age of $0.8^{+6.7}_{-0.3} Gyr$. Utilizing this age range and the latest DUSTY models of the Lyon group we assign a photometric distance of $18.8^{+1.44}_{-1.02} pc$ and masses of $M_{A}=0.074^{+0.005}_{-0.011} M_\odot$ and $M_{B}=0.066^{+0.006}_{-0.015} M_\odot$. We therefore estimate a system separation of $2.92_{+0.22}^{-0.16}AU$ and a period of $13.3{+3.18}^{-1.51} yr$ respectively. Hence, 2M1426 is among the smallest separation brown dwarf binaries resolved to date

Numerical Simulation of Illumination and Thermal Conditions at the Lunar Poles Using LOLA DTMs

We are interested in illumination conditions and the temperature distribution within the upper two meters of regolith near the lunar poles. Here, areas exist receiving almost constant illumination near areas in permanent shadow, which were identified as potential exploration sites for future missions. For our study a numerical simulation of the illumination and thermal environment for lunar near-polar regions is needed. Our study is based on high-resolution, twenty meters per pixel and 400 x 400 km large polar Digital Terrain Models (DTMs), which were derived from Lunar Orbiter Laser Altimeter (LOLA) data. Illumination conditions were simulated by synthetically illuminating the LOLA DTMs using the horizon method considering the Sun as an extended source. We model polar illumination for the central 50 x 50 km subset and use it as an input at each time-step (2 h) to evaluate the heating of the lunar surface and subsequent conduction in the sub-surface. At surface level we balance the incoming insolation with the subsurface conduction and radiation into space, whereas in the sub-surface we consider conduction with an additional constant radiogenic heat source at the bottom of our two-meter layer. Density is modeled as depth-dependent, the specific heat parameter as temperature-dependent and the thermal conductivity as depth- and temperature-dependent. We implemented a fully implicit finite-volume method in space and backward Euler scheme in time to solve the one-dimensional heat equation at each pixel in our 50 x 50 km DTM. Due to the non-linear dependencies of the parameters mentioned above, Newton's method is employed as the non-linear solver together with the Gauss-Seidel method as the iterative linear solver in each Newton iteration. The software is written in OpenCL and runs in parallel on the GPU cores, which allows for fast computation of large areas and long time scales