Could detection and attribution of climate change trends be spurious regression?

Since the 1970s, scientists have developed statistical methods intended to formalize detection of changes in global climate and to attribute such changes to relevant causal factors, natural and anthropogenic. Detection and attribution (D&A) of climate change trends is commonly performed using a variant of Hasselmann’s “optimal fingerprinting” method, which involves a linear regression of historical climate observations on corresponding output from numerical climate models. However, it has long been known in the field of time series analysis that regressions of “non-stationary” or “trending” variables are, in general, statistically inconsistent and often spurious. When non-stationarity is caused by “integrated” processes, as is likely the case for climate variables, consistency of least-squares estimators depends on “cointegration” of regressors. This study has shown, using an idealized linear-response-model framework, that if standard assumptions hold then the optimal fingerprinting estimator is consistent, and hence robust against spurious regression. In the case of global mean surface temperature (GMST), parameterizing abstract linear response models in terms of energy balance provides this result with physical interpretability. Hypothesis tests conducted using observations of historical GMST and simulation output from 13 CMIP6 general circulation models produced no evidence that standard assumptions required for consistency were violated. It is therefore concluded that, at least in the case of GMST, detection and attribution of climate change trends is very likely not spurious regression. Furthermore, detection of significant cointegration between observations and model output indicates that the least-squares estimator is “superconsistent”, with better convergence properties than might previously have been assumed. Finally, a new method has been developed for quantifying D&A uncertainty, exploiting the notion of cointegration to eliminate the need for pre-industrial control simulations

Questionnaire identifying management practices surrounding calving on spring-calving dairy farms and their associations with herd size and herd expansion

peer-reviewedHealthy calves are fundamental to any profitable dairy enterprise. Research to-date, has focused on year-round calving systems which experience many different challenges compared to spring-calving systems. The objective of the present study was to determine the on-farm dry cow, calving, and colostrum management practices of spring-calving dairy production systems, and quantify their associations with herd size and herd expansion status (i.e. expanding or not expanding). Information on these management practices was available from a survey of 262 Irish spring-calving dairy farmers, representative of the Irish national population. Herd expansion in the 2 years before, and the year that the survey was conducted was not associated with any of the management practices investigated. Fifty-three percent of respondents had an average calving season length of 10 to14 weeks with 35% of herds having a longer calving season. Previous research in cattle has documented that both colostrum source and feeding management are associated with the transmission of infectious disease from cow to calf. In the present study 60% of respondents fed calves colostrum from their own dam; however, 66% of those respondents allowed the calf to suckle the dam, 23% of survey respondents fed calves pooled colostrum. Larger herds were more likely (P<0.01) to use pooled colostrum supplies, while smaller herds were more likely (P<0.05) to allow the calf to suckle the dam. The majority (86%) of respondents had stored supplies of colostrum; average-sized herds had the greatest likelihood of storing colostrum (P<0.05), compared to other herd sizes; larger sized herds had a lesser likelihood (P<0.05) of storing colostrum in a freezer, compared to other herd sizes. Although freezing colostrum was the most common method used to store colostrum (54% of respondents), 17% of respondents stored colostrum at room temperature, 29% of which stored it at room temperature for greater than 4 days. The results from the present study indicate that a particular focus needs to be placed on calving and colostrum management because this study has highlighted a number of areas which are below international standards, and may have repercussions for calf health. Furthermore, management practices on larger farms could be improved and, as these represent the future of dairy farming, a focus needs to be placed on them. Expanding herds are not a particular concern as herd expansion, independent of herd size, does not seem to be associated with calving and colostrum management practices on Irish spring-calving dairy herds

The effect of colostrum storage conditions on dairy heifer calf serum immunoglobulin G concentration and preweaning health and growth rate

peer-reviewedThe objective of the present study was to compare serum IgG concentration, weight gain, and health characteristics in Irish spring-born dairy calves fed colostrum stored using a range of conditions. Immediately after birth, 75 dairy heifer calves were assigned to 1 of 5 experimental colostrum treatments: (1) fresh pasteurized colostrum, fed immediately after pasteurization; (2) fresh colostrum, fed immediately after collection but not pasteurized; (3) colostrum stored unpasteurized at 4°C in a temperature-controlled unit for 2d before being fed to calves; (4) colostrum stored unpasteurized at 13°C in a temperature-controlled unit for 2d before being fed to calves; and (5) colostrum stored unpasteurized at 22°C in a temperature-controlled unit for 2d before being fed to calves. All colostrum had IgG concentrations >50g/L and was fed to calves promptly after birth. Blood samples were obtained from calves via the jugular vein at 0h (before colostrum feeding) and at 24h of age to determine the rate of passive transfer of IgG; individual calf live-weights were recorded to monitor weight gain (kg/d) from birth to weaning. Colostrum stored in warmer conditions (i.e., 22°C) had >42 times more bacteria present and a pH that was 0.85 units lower and resulted in a serum IgG concentration that was almost 2 times lower compared with colostrum that was pasteurized, untreated, or stored at 4°C for 2d. Colostrum stored at 4°C for 2d had more bacteria present than pasteurized and fresh colostrum but did not result in reduced calf serum IgG concentrations. Average daily weight gain from birth to weaning did not differ among treatments. Even if colostrum has sufficient IgG (>50g/L) but cannot be fed to calves when freshly collected, storage at ≤4°C for 2d is advisable to ensure adequate passive transfer when it is consumed by the calf

Surface Turbulent Fluxes From the MOSAiC Campaign Predicted by Machine Learning

Reliable boundary-layer turbulence parametrizations for polar conditions are needed to reduce uncertainty in projections of Arctic sea ice melting rate and its potential global repercussions. Surface turbulent fluxes of sensible and latent heat are typically represented in weather/climate models using bulk formulae based on the Monin-Obukhov Similarity Theory, sometimes finely tuned to high stability conditions and the potential presence of sea ice. In this study, we test the performance of new, machine-learning (ML) flux parametrizations, using an advanced polar-specific bulk algorithm as a baseline. Neural networks, trained on observations from previous Arctic campaigns, are used to predict surface turbulent fluxes measured over sea ice as part of the recent MOSAiC expedition. The ML parametrizations outperform the bulk at the MOSAiC sites, with RMSE reductions of up to 70 percent. We provide a plug-in Fortran implementation of the neural networks for use in models

Surface critical exponents at a uniaxial Lifshitz point

Using Monte Carlo techniques, the surface critical behaviour of three-dimensional semi-infinite ANNNI models with different surface orientations with respect to the axis of competing interactions is investigated. Special attention is thereby paid to the surface criticality at the bulk uniaxial Lifshitz point encountered in this model. The presented Monte Carlo results show that the mean-field description of semi-infinite ANNNI models is qualitatively correct. Lifshitz point surface critical exponents at the ordinary transition are found to depend on the surface orientation. At the special transition point, however, no clear dependency of the critical exponents on the surface orientation is revealed. The values of the surface critical exponents presented in this study are the first estimates available beyond mean-field theory.Comment: 10 pages, 7 figures include

'Drowning in here in his bloody sea' : exploring TV cop drama's representations of the impact of stress in modern policing

The Criminal Justice System is a part of society that is both familiar and hidden. It is familiar in that a large part of daily news and television drama is devoted to it (Carrabine, 2008; Jewkes, 2011). It is hidden in the sense that the majority of the population have little, if any, direct contact with the Criminal Justice System, meaning that the media may be a major force in shaping their views on crime and policing (Carrabine, 2008). As Reiner (2000) notes, the debate about the relationship between the media, policing, and crime has been a key feature of wider societal concerns about crime since the establishment of the modern police force. He outlines the recurring themes in post-war debates in this field. For Conservatives there has been an ongoing concern that the media is criminongenic, as it serves to undermine traditional institutions, including the police. From the viewpoint of radical criminology, the impact of the media is two-fold: it exaggerates legitimate concerns about crime and emphasises the bureaucratic and other restrictions under which the police operate (Reiner, 2000). This is seen as undermining due process and legitimatising what can be termed a ‘maverick’ approach to policing. An early example of this can be seen in Clint Eastwood’s Dirty Harry movies (Siegel, 1971) where Harry Callaghan acts as a one-man law enforcement system outside of the formal legal process, a process portrayed as corrupt, inefficient, and concerned with offenders’ rights rather than protecting victims. From a policing perspective, Reiner (2000) argues that film and TV drama creates a simplistic narrative of crime solving that is almost completely divorced from the reality of modern police work, a finding consistent with more recent work by Cummins et al., (2014)

Whole genome analysis of a schistosomiasis-transmitting freshwater snail

Biomphalaria snails are instrumental in transmission of the human blood fluke Schistosoma mansoni. With the World Health Organization's goal to eliminate schistosomiasis as a global health problem by 2025, there is now renewed emphasis on snail control. Here, we characterize the genome of Biomphalaria glabrata, a lophotrochozoan protostome, and provide timely and important information on snail biology. We describe aspects of phero-perception, stress responses, immune function and regulation of gene expression that support the persistence of B. glabrata in the field and may define this species as a suitable snail host for S. mansoni. We identify several potential targets for developing novel control measures aimed at reducing snail-mediated transmission of schistosomiasis

Multiple roles for plant glutathione transferases in xenobiotic detoxification

Discovered 40 years ago, plant glutathione transferases (GSTs) now have a well-established role in determining herbicide metabolism and selectivity in crops and weeds. Within the GST superfamily, the numerous and plant-specific phi (F) and tau (U) classes are largely responsible for catalyzing glutathione-dependent reactions with xenobiotics, notably conjugation leading to detoxification and, more rarely, bioactivating isomerizations. In total, the crystal structures of 10 plant GSTs have been solved and a highly conserved N-terminal glutathione binding domain and structurally diverse C-terminal hydrophobic domain identified, along with key coordinating residues. Unlike drug-detoxifying mammalian GSTs, plant enzymes utlilize a catalytic serine in place of a tyrosine residue. Both GSTFs and GSTUs undergo changes in structure during catalysis indicative of an induced fit mechanism on substrate binding, with an understanding of plant GST structure/function allowing these proteins to be engineered for novel functions in detoxification and ligand recognition. Several major crops produce alternative thiols, with GSTUs shown to use homoglutathione in preference to glutathione, in herbicide detoxification reactions in soybeans. Similarly, hydroxymethylglutathione is used, in addition to glutathione in detoxifying the herbicide fenoxaprop in wheat. Following GST action, plants are able to rapidly process glutathione conjugates by at least two distinct pathways, with the available evidence suggesting these function in an organ- and species-specific manner. Roles for GSTs in endogenous metabolism are less well defined, with the enzymes linked to a diverse range of functions, including signaling, counteracting oxidative stress, and detoxifying and transporting secondary metabolites