A New Approach to Analyzing Convergence and Synchronicity in Growth and Business Cycles: Cross Recurrence Plots and Quantification Analysis

Convergence and synchronisation of business and growth cycles are important issues in the efficient formulation of euro area economic policies, and in particular European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy. Although several studies in the economics literature address the issue of synchronicity of growth within the euro area, this is the first study to address this issue using cross-recurrence analysis. The main findings are that member state growth rates had largely converged before the introduction of the euro, but there is a wide degree of different synchronisation behaviours which appear non-linear in nature. Many of the euro area member states display what is termed here as "intermittency" in synchronization, although this is not consistent across countries or members of the euro area. These differences in synchronization behaviors could cause problems in future implementation of euro area monetary policy.Euro area; business cycles; growth cycles; recurrence plots; recurrence quantification analysis; non-stationarity; complex systems; surrogate analysis.

Is Economic Growth Synchronicity Higher in Europe than Elsewhere?

Synchronization of growth rates are an important feature of international business cycles, particularly in relation to regional integration projects such as the single currency in Europe. Synchronization of growth rates clearly enhances the effectiveness of European Central Bank monetary policy, ensuring that policy changes are more attuned to the dynamics of growth and business cycles in the majority of euro area member states. In this paper a dissimilarity metric is constructed by measuring the topological differences between the GDP growth patterns in recurrence plots for individual countries. The results show that synchronization of growth rates were higher among the euro area member states during the second half of the 1980s and from 1997 to roughly 2002. Apart from these two time periods, euro area member states do not appear to be more synchronized than a group of major international countries, suggesting that apart from specific times when European integration initiatives were being implemented, globalization was the dominant factor behind international business cycle synchronization

Measuring the intermittent synchronicity of macroeconomic growth in Europe. ACES Cases No. 2010.1

Synchronization of growth rates are an important feature of international business cycles, particularly in relation to regional integration projects such as the single currency in Europe. Synchronization of growth rates clearly enhances the effectiveness of European Central Bank monetary policy, ensuring that policy changes are attuned to the dynamics of growth and business cycles in the majority of member states. In this paper a dissimilarity metric is constructed by measuring the topological differences between the GDP growth patterns in recurrence plots for individual countries. The results show that synchronization of growth rates were higher among the Euro area member states during the second half of the 1980s and from 1997 to roughly 2002. Apart from these two time periods, Euro area member states do not appear to be more synchronized than a group of major international countries, signifying that globalization was the major cause of international business cycle synchronization

A New Approach to Analyzing Convergence and Synchronicity in Growth and Business Cycles: Cross Recurrence Plots and Quantification Analysis

Convergence and synchronisation of business and growth cycles are important issues in the efficient formulation of euro area economic policies, and in particular European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy. Although several studies in the economics literature address the issue of synchronicity of growth within the euro area, this is the first study to address this issue using cross-recurrence analysis. The main findings are that member state growth rates had largely converged before the introduction of the euro, but there is a wide degree of different synchronisation behaviours which appear non-linear in nature. Many of the euro area member states display what is termed here as "intermittency" in synchronization, although this is not consistent across countries or members of the euro area. These differences in synchronization behaviors could cause problems in future implementation of euro area monetary policy

A New Approach to Analyzing Convergence and Synchronicity in Growth and Business Cycles: Cross Recurrence Plots and Quantification Analysis

Convergence and synchronisation of business and growth cycles are important issues in the efficient formulation of euro area economic policies, and in particular European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy. Although several studies in the economics literature address the issue of synchronicity of growth within the euro area, this is the first study to address this issue using cross-recurrence analysis. The main findings are that member state growth rates had largely converged before the introduction of the euro, but there is a wide degree of different synchronisation behaviours which appear non-linear in nature. Many of the euro area member states display what is termed here as "intermittency" in synchronization, although this is not consistent across countries or members of the euro area. These differences in synchronization behaviors could cause problems in future implementation of euro area monetary policy

Effectiveness of Remotely Delivered Interventions to Simultaneously Optimize Management of Hypertension, Hyperglycemia and Dyslipidemia in People With Diabetes: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials

Background: Remotely delivered interventions may be more efficient in controlling multiple risk factors in people with diabetes. Purpose: To pool evidence from randomized controlled trials testing remote management interventions to simultaneously control blood pressure, blood glucose and lipids. Data Sources: PubMed/Medline, EMBASE, CINAHL and the Cochrane library were systematically searched for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) until 20th June 2021. Study Selection: Included RCTs were those that reported participant data on blood pressure, blood glucose, and lipid outcomes in response to a remotely delivered intervention. Data Extraction: Three authors extracted data using a predefined template. Primary outcomes were glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), total cholesterol (TC), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-c), systolic and diastolic blood pressure (SBP & DBP). Risk of bias was assessed using the Cochrane collaboration RoB-2 tool. Meta-analyses are reported as standardized mean difference (SMD) with 95% confidence intervals (95%CI). Data Synthesis: Twenty-seven RCTs reporting on 9100 participants (4581 intervention and 4519 usual care) were included. Components of the remote management interventions tested were identified as patient education, risk factor monitoring, coaching on monitoring, consultations, and pharmacological management. Comparator groups were typically face-to-face usual patient care. Remote management significantly reduced HbA1c (SMD -0.25, 95%CI -0.33 to -0.17, p<0.001), TC (SMD -0.17, 95%CI -0.29 to -0.04, p<0.0001), LDL-c (SMD -0.11, 95%CI -0.19 to -0.03, p=0.006), SBP (SMD -0.11, 95%CI -0.18 to -0.04, p=0.001) and DBP (SMD -0.09, 95%CI -0.16 to -0.02, p=0.02), with low to moderate heterogeneity (I²= 0 to 75). Twelve trials had high risk of bias, 12 had some risk and three were at low risk of bias. Limitations: Heterogeneity and potential publication bias may limit applicability of findings. Conclusions: Remote management significantly improves control of modifiable risk factors

Comparative analysis of microRNA expression in mouse and human brown adipose tissue

BACKGROUND: In small mammals brown adipose tissue (BAT) plays a predominant role in regulating energy expenditure (EE) via adaptive thermogenesis. New-born babies require BAT to control their body temperature, however its relevance in adults has been questioned. Active BAT has recently been observed in adult humans, albeit in much lower relative quantities than small mammals. Comparing and contrasting the molecular mechanisms controlling BAT growth and development in mice and humans will increase our understanding or how human BAT is developed and may identify potential therapeutic targets to increase EE. MicroRNAs are molecular mechanisms involved in mouse BAT development however, little is known about the miRNA profile in human BAT. The aims of this study were to establish a mouse BAT-enriched miRNA profile and compare this with miRNAs measured in human BAT. To achieve this we firstly established a mouse BAT enriched-miRNA profile by comparing miRNAs expressed in mouse BAT, white adipose tissue and skeletal muscle. Following this the BAT-enriched miRNAs predicted to target genes potentially involved in growth and development were identified. METHODS: MiRNA levels were measured using PCR-based miRNA arrays. Results were analysed using ExpressionSuite software with the global mean expression value of all expressed miRNAs in a givensample used as the normalisation factor. Bio-informatic analyses was used to predict gene targets followed by Ingenuity Pathway Analysis. RESULTS: We identified 35 mouse BAT-enriched miRNAs that were predicted to target genes potentially involved in growth and development. We also identified 145 miRNAs expressed in both mouse and human BAT, of which 25 were enriched in mouse BAT. Of these 25 miRNAs, miR-20a was predicted to target MYF5 and PPAR&gamma;, two important genes involved in brown adipogenesis, as well as BMP2 and BMPR2, genes involved in white adipogenesis. For the first time, 69 miRNAs were identified in human BAT but absent in mouse BAT, and 181 miRNAs were expressed in mouse but not in human BAT. CONCLUSION: The present study has identified a small sub-set of miRNAs common to both mouse and human BAT. From this sub-set bioinformatics analysis suggested a potential role of miR-20a in the control of cell fate and this warrants further investigation. The large number of miRNAs found only in mouse BAT or only in human BAT highlights the differing molecular profile between species that is likely to influence the functional role of BAT across species. Nevertheless the BAT-enriched miRNA profiles established in the present study suggest targets to investigate in the control BAT development and EE

Identification of MicroRNAs Linked to Regulators of Muscle Protein Synthesis and Regeneration in Young and Old Skeletal Muscle

Over the course of ageing there is a natural and progressive loss of skeletal muscle mass. The onset and progression of age-related muscle wasting is associated with an attenuated activation of Akt-mTOR signalling and muscle protein synthesis in response to anabolic stimuli such as resistance exercise. MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are novel and important post-transcriptional regulators of numerous cellular processes. The role of miRNAs in the regulation of muscle protein synthesis following resistance exercise is poorly understood. This study investigated the changes in skeletal muscle miRNA expression following an acute bout of resistance exercise in young and old subjects with a focus on the miRNA species predicted to target Akt-mTOR signalling

LGBT+ Youth Perspectives on Sexual Orientation and Gender Identity Questions in the Growing Up in Ireland Survey: A Qualitative Study

The increasing importance of identifying lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender (LGBT+) populations is a key driver in changes to demographic data collection in representative surveys of youth. While such population-based data are rare, Growing Up in Ireland (GUI), an Irish, government-funded, longitudinal survey, includes sexual orientation and gender identity (SOGI) measurements. This qualitative study responds to a query from the GUI study team and aims to identify how best to collect SOGI data in future waves of GUI. A university Human Research Ethics Committee granted approval for online consultations with LGBT+ youth (n = 6) with experiential expertise in policy making. The research is underpinned by rights-based public patient involvement (PPI) with recorded discussions, which were transcribed and imported into NVivo 12, generating the theme “recognition in research, policy and society”. This co-created article, with the LGBT+ young PPI Panel members, commends the inclusion of SOGI data in GUI and recommends changes in question placement and phrasing. Aligning with best practice, the PPI members provide a template for wording on consecutive sex and gender questions, expanded sexual orientation identity categories and maintaining the existing well-phrased transgender question from GUI. This offers potential to improve the quality of the SOGI data collected and the experience of those completing the questionnaire. These findings extend beyond GUI, with relevance for surveys with youth populations. This paper underscores the potential and benefits of participatory approaches to research with youth and views their role beyond simply as sources of data