“Valoración y riesgo financiero en el caso de una aerolínea”. Caso Avianca S.A.

En este documento se hará la evaluación y el análisis del valor financiero de la compañía Aerovías del continente americano AVIANCA SA, basándose en sus estados financieros reportados en los años 2011 a 2015, y evaluando los cambios en sus propuestas de valor a los accionistas, así como los cambios de estructuras en la compañía -- Tomando en cuenta los fines de una valoración de empresas, que toma principalmente los valores económicos de sus activos empresariales, se realizarán análisis profundos y recomendaciones para la toma de decisiones de la compañía -- Adicionalmente se realizará un análisis de riesgos financieros, tomando en cuenta todos los cambios que se presentan actualmente en el mercado, tanto a nivel financiero como en las decisiones y acciones de las competencia

Modelo estadístico para la predicción del índice estandarizado de sequía pluviométrica (IESP) en Andalucía

La comunicación aborda el diseño de un modelo estadístico de predicción dinámica de la sequía en Andalucía y su persistencia en un horizonte temporal de 12 meses a partir de los datos históricos (1950-2012) del Índice Estandarizado de Sequía Pluviométrica (IESP) en 243 observatorios de Andalucía. Se emplea un algoritmo kNN (k-Nearest Neighbors), que busca las situaciones pasadas más similares a la actual y predice el futuro promediando lo que ocurrió a continuación en dichas situaciones. Los resultados producen porcentajes de error muy reducidos. El modelo se está aplicando en rutina en el Sistema de Información de Climatología Ambiental (CLIMA) de la Consejería de Medio Ambiente de la Junta de Andalucía (http://www.climasig.es).This paper presents a statistical model for the dynamical prediction of drought in Andalusia. The drought index used is the IESP, which stands for Índice Estandarizado de Sequía Pluviométrica in Spanish, and has been applied to historical observation series (1950-2012) for 243 observatories. A kNN (k-Nearest Neighbors) algorithm is used to predict the future situations by averaging the past instances that are most similar to the current one. The application of a validation procedure on the available data shows that this model leads to very small percentages of failed predictions. The model is being applied by the Environment Ministry of the Andalusian Government to monitor drought in the region

Darbepoetin Versus Epoetin Alfa for the Correction of Anemia in Cancer Patients Receiving Radiotherapy or Chemoradiotherapy Treatment

Introduction Anemia is the most frequent hematological disturbance in cancer patients, with prevalence between 30% and 90%, depending on the type of tumor, the antitumor treatment, and other factors (infection, malnutrition, bleeding, tumor infiltration of the bone marrow). A number of erythropoietic agents have shown to be effective in increasing the hemoglobin (Hb) levels, reducing the requirements for transfusion, and improving quality of life. The objective of this study is to compare darbepoetin alfa and epoetin alfa when used to correct anemia in cancer patients who are receiving radiotherapy or radiochemotherapy. Material and methods A prospective study of 125 consecutive patients with anemia (Hb < 13 g/dL in males or < 12 g/dL in females) who were undergoing treatment with radiotherapy (RT) or radiochemotherapy (RCT) in our department were enrolled between March 2003 and March 2005. The treatment for the anemia was either darbepoetin alfa 150 mcg/week (62 patients, group 1) or epoetin alfa 40,000 IU/week (63 patients, group 2). Patients received iron supplements in both groups. Treatment was administered in a consecutive manner depending on tumor type. If the increase in Hb was < 1 g/dL after 4 weeks of treatment, the dose was increased to 300 mcg/week in group 1 or to 60,000 IU/week in group 2. The treatment was terminated when a Hb value of ≥ 15 g/dL was reached during RT treatment, a Hb value of ≥ 14 g/dL was reached if the RT had been completed, or after 16 weeks of treatment whatever the Hb value. The mean age of patients was 63.36 ± 11.27 years, 67% were male. No significant differences were observed between the 2 groups in tumor type or stage, previous treatments, or intent to treat with RT or RCT. Results Comparing group 1 and group 2 by intent to treat, the mean Hb at the start of treatment with the study drug was 12.1 g/dL vs 11.8 g/dL, the proportion of patients whose dose was increased was19.7% vs 24.6%, the need for transfusion was 3.2% in each group, the duration of erythropoietic treatment was 6.5 weeks in both groups, and 2 patients in group 2 restarted treatment with epoetin alfa. The percentage of patients who responded (defined as an increase in the Hb ≥ 2 g/dL in the absence of transfusions) was of 72.6% and 66.7%, respectively. Four vascular adverse events were observed, 2 in each group. No significant differences were observed with respect to the baseline, week 4, and week 12 levels of endogenous erythropoietin, serum iron,% saturation, and ferritin. The increase in Hb 1 month after the final administration of the study drug was 2.21 g/dL in group 1 and 2.46 g/dL in group 2 (p = ns). Conclusions The results of our study demonstrate that both treatments are equally effective in correcting anemia in cancer patients undergoing RT or RCT

Procesos de evaluación médica en el área clínica. Análisis cualitativo a través de la experiencia de docentes y estudiantes

Evaluation processes in clinical practice have not been well, being their study focused on the technical issues concerning these processes. This study tried an approach to the evaluation processes through the analysis of perceptions from teachers and students about the methodology of evaluation considering the teachinglearning processes performed in a clinical practice of the Medicine Program –Universidad El Bosque from Bogota. With this purpose we conducted interviews with teachers and students searching the manner in which the evaluative, learning and teaching processes are done; then we analyzed the perception from both agents concerning the way these processes are related. The interviews were categorized bath deductively and inductively, and then contrasted with some current theories of learning, teaching and evaluation in medicine. The study showed that nowadays the evaluation and, in general, the educative processes are affected by several factors which are associated to the manner the professional practice is developed, and the educative process of the current teachers. We concluded there is no congrency between the approach of the evaluation, mainly conductivist, and the learning and teaching strategies mainly constructivist. This fact cause dissent in teachers and students.Los procesos de evaluación en la práctica clínica médica han sido poco investigados, perfilándose su estudio a la manera técnica de realizarlos. Este estudio buscó realizar una aproximación a los procesos de evaluación clínica en medicina mediante la valoración de las percepciones de docentes y estudiantes acerca de los métodos de evaluación a la luz de los procesos de enseñanza y aprendizaje llevados a cabo en una rotación clínica del programa de Medicina de la Universidad El Bosque en Bogotá. Con este fin se realizaron entrevistas a docentes y estudiantes, indagando sobre la manera como se dan los procesos de evaluación, enseñanza y aprendizaje; posteriormente, se analizó la percepción de ambos agentes sobre la forma como se relacionan dichos procesos. Estas entrevistas fueron categorizadas de manera deductiva e inductiva y contrastadas con las diferentes teorías existentes en enseñanza, aprendizaje y evaluación médicas. Se evidenció que en la actualidad, la evaluación y en general el proceso educativo son afectados por factores asociados a cómo se desarrolla el ejercicio profesional y por la forma en que se desarrolló el proceso educativo de los actuales docentes. Se concluyó que hay incoherencia frente al enfoque de la evaluación primordialmente conductista, en relación con las estrategias de enseñanza y aprendizaje utilizadas enmarcadas en el constructivismo, lo cual se manifiesta en inconformidad de docentes y estudiantes

Short communication: Effect of αS1-casein (CSN1S1) and κ-casein (CSN3) genotypes on milk composition in Murciano-Granadina goats

The effects of the caprine alpha(S1)-casein (CSN1S1) polymorphisms on milk quality have been widely demonstrated. However, much less is known about the consequences of the kappa-casein (CSN3) genotype on milk composition in goats. Moreover, the occurrence of interactions between CSN3 and CSN1S1 genotypes has not been investigated. In this study, an association analysis between CSN1S1 and CSN3 genotypes and milk quality traits was performed in 89 Murciano-Granadina goats. Total milk yield as well as total protein, fat, solids-not-fat, lactose, alpha(S1)-casein (CSN1S1), and alpha(S2)-casein (CSN1S2) contents were recorded every other month during a whole lactation (316 observations). Data analysis using a linear mixed model for repeated observations revealed no interaction between the CSN1S1 and CSN3 genotypes. With regard to the effect of the CSN3 locus, AB and BB genotypes were significantly associated with higher levels of total casein and protein content compared with the AA CSN3 genotype. In strong contrast with French breeds, the CSN1S1 genotype did not affect protein, casein, and fat concentrations in Murciano-Granadina goats. These results highlight the importance of taking into consideration the CSN3 genotype when performing selection for milk composition in dairy goats

Método para el análisis del proceso : “Alquiler de maquinaria” utilizando BPM y BI

La estandarización de un proceso en una empresa es importante, pues la orientación del mismo sirve para entender el funcionamiento de su negocio. Por esto aplicó este concepto a INGECONS, empresa dedicada a la construcción que presta el servicio de alquiler de maquinaria, actualmente se lleva un proceso manual donde su información no es usada para análisis, no se efectúan controles sobre el flujo de dinero para insumos y solo una persona tiene conocimiento sobre la ejecución de este proceso, implicando desconocimiento para la empresa e ineficiencias dentro del mismo. Inicialmente se realiza la modelación de la situación actual del proceso de alquiler de maquinaria se analizan las actividades actuales y se simula con un tiempo establecido de 999 días con 24 horas cada día para todo el proceso. Posterior a esto, se proponen mejoras en la trazabilidad de información y gestión, orientación del servicio al cliente y productividad que agreguen valor tomando por ejemplo medidas de acuerdo a los resultados de los gráficos de control de ACPM, formularios e indicadores para la correcta toma de decisiones. Adicionalmente se realiza un análisis sobre los costos que incurren en la ejecución del proceso haciendo cambios en la asignación de actividades. Después de analizar el proceso, se obtienen mejoras en las tres categorías, por ejemplo, se tiene un tiempo del proceso inicial de 102 días y se logra reducir a 62 días mejoras en tiempos de respuesta al cliente e.t.c.Se concluye que la falta de control sobre el proceso hace que los flujos de dinero efectivo para el consumo de ACPM por tipo de maquina tenga una variabilidad alta y la única manera de reducirá es implementar estas medidas de control y seguimiento de la información.The standardization of a process in a company is important, since its orientation is used to understand the performance of the company. This is the reason this concept was applied at INGECONS, a company focused on construction that offers machinery for rent as a service, currently there is a manual process where the information is not used for analysis, there is no control over cash flow for supplies and only one person has knowledge over the execution of this process, this means the company is ignorant of the process and the it is inefficient. Initially, the current machinery rent process situation is modeled, and the current activities are analyzed. It is simulated with a stablished time of 999 days with 24 hours each day for the entire process. After this, improvements are proposed in information traceability and management, orientation to customer service y productivity that add value such as actions according to results from diesel fuel control graphics, forms and indicators for appropriate decision making. Additionally, an analysis about the cost regarding the execution of the process is made making changes in activities assignations. After analyzing the results there are improvements in the three categories, such as, the duration of the initial process was 102 days and it was reduced to 62 days, improvement in reply timing for customers, etc. It is concluded that the lack of control over the process results in cash flows for the consumption of diesel fuel for each machine have high variability and that the only way to reduce it is to implement these actions and information traceability.Ingeniero (a) IndustrialPregrad

Asignación de espacios en tiempo real por medio de un modelo basado en agentes (ABM)

Currently, the search for study spaces on a university campus is one of the biggest problems faced by a student because this population, in many cases, exceeds the physical resources of the campuses. Linear models are not feasible to face these types of situations since the large volume of information implied by the study spaces and groups generates data overflow. An alternative to address these situations is a multiagent model which allows assignments dynamically and in real time through interactions between agents, a methodology that due to its characteristics allows progress towards the implementation of a Smart Campus. A model of agents makes possible a “conversation” between agents representing study spaces and groups of students, achieving an assignment similar to what usually happens in real life. It is necessary to highlight that because it is a dynamic model, new groups can be entered even when the model has already been running for a certain time. This implies that, in the long run, the agent model should not be rerun if there is any variation, which is not the case in a linear model. For this reason, this study aimed to implement a multiagent model in the Eclipse development platform for the simulation of different scenarios to assign study spaces to groups of students in real time. To validate the operation of the multiagent model, capacity tests were carried out that sought to know the limitations regarding the amount of data that could be entered, as well as optimality tests in which the objective was to compare the results obtained from an agent model with those of a linear model. Throughout the development of this study, the agent model was compared with a linear model and it was found that this provided results close to the level of a model that could obtain an optimal solution. The results obtained, both in the linear model and in the multiagent model, were subjected to a validator to determine if the results were correct. For a second stage, it was decided to activate the negotiation function, which allowed the groups to give in on their tool requirements in real time. On this occasion, the results were even higher to those of the optimal model, since when input parameters were changed while the model was running, alternative solutions were found that allowed groups to access spaces that were still available, and that in a first instance its assignment was not possible.Ingeniero (a) IndustrialPregrad

Using participatory action research to reimagine community mental health services in Colombia: a mixed-method study protocol

Introduction Mental healthcare systems are challenged by how they hear and respond to what marginalised communities experience as drivers of mental distress. In Colombia, this challenge intersects with wider challenges facing post-conflict reconstruction. Our pilot study will explore the feasibility and acceptability of a participatory approach to developing community-led participatory interventions for community mental health systems strengthening and mental health improvement, in two sites in Caquetá, Colombia. Methods and analysis The project is divided into three distinct phases aligned with community participatory action research cycles: diagnostic, intervention and evaluation. This allows us to use a participatory approach to design a community-led, bottom-up intervention for mental health systems strengthening and the promotion of mental health and well-being. The diagnostic phase explores local understandings of mental health, mental distress and access to mental health services from community members and health providers. The intervention stage will be guided by a participatory Theory of Change process. Community priorities will inform the development of a participatory, learning and action (PLA) informed group intervention, with a community linkage forum. The pilot of the PLA intervention will be evaluated using MRC process evaluation guidelines. Ethics and dissemination This project has received ethical approval from two sources. Universidad de Los Andes (2021-1393) and the University College London (16127/005). Dissemination of findings will include academic publications, community forums, policy briefs and visual media (cartoons, pod casts and short films)

Effects of αs1-casein (CSN1S1) and κ-casein (CSN3) genotypes on milk coagulation properties in Murciano-Granadina goats

The effects of the caprine αs1-casein (CSN1S1) polymorphisms on milk quality and cheese yield have been widely studied in French and Italian goat breeds. Much less is known about the consequences of κ-casein (CSN3) genotype on the technological and coagulation properties of goat milk. In the current study, we have performed an association analysis between polymorphisms at the goat CSN1S1 and CSN3 genes and milk coagulation (rennet coagulation time, curdling rate and curd firmness) and technological (time to cutting of curd and cheese yield) properties. In this analysis, we have included 193 records from 74 Murciano-Granadina goats (with genotypes constituted by different combinations of alleles B, E and F of the gene CSN1S1 and alleles A and B of the gene CSN3) distributed in three herds, which were collected bimonthly during a whole lactation. Data analysis, using a linear mixed model for repeated observations, revealed significant associations between CSN1S1 genotypes and the rate of the curdling process. In this way, milk from EE goats had a significantly higher curdling rate than milk from BB individuals (PAB, P<0·05) but not on cheese yield. No interaction between the CSN1S1 and CSN3 genotypes was observed.This work was funded by a grant from the Spanish Ministry of Education and Science (AGL2002-04304-C03-02- GAN).Peer reviewe