Stellar populations -- the next ten years

The study of stellar populations is a discipline that is highly dependent on both imaging and spectroscopy. I discuss techniques in different regimes of resolving power: broadband imaging (R~4), intermediate band imaging (R~16, 64), narrowband spectral imaging (R~256, 1024, 4096). In recent years, we have seen major advances in broadband all-sky surveys that are set to continue across optical and IR bands, with the added benefit of the time domain, higher sensitivity, and improved photometric accuracy. Tunable filters and integral field spectrographs are poised to make further inroads into intermediate and narrowband imaging studies of stellar populations. Further advances will come from AO-assisted imaging and imaging spectroscopy, although photometric accuracy will be challenging. Integral field spectroscopy will continue to have a major impact on future stellar population studies, extending into the near infrared once the OH suppression problem is finally resolved. A sky rendered dark will allow a host of new ideas to be explored, and old ideas to be revisited.Comment: Invited review, IAUS 241, "Stellar Populations as Building Blocks of Galaxies," eds. Vazdekis, Peletier. 12 pages, 1 table. (The sideways table should print ok; there are 10 columns.

Estimating Mean and Standard Deviation from the Sample Size, Three Quartiles, Minimum, and Maximum

Background: We sometimes want to include in a meta-analysis data from studies where results are presented as medians and ranges or interquartile ranges rather than as means and standard deviations. In this paper I extend a method of Hozo et al. to estimate mean and standard deviation from median, minimum, and maximum to the case where quartiles are also available.Methods: Inequalities are developed for each observation using upper and lower limits derived from the minimum, the three quartiles, and the maximum. These are summed to give bounds for the sum and hence the mean of the observations, the average of these bounds in the estimate. A similar estimate is found for the sum of the observations squared and hence for the variance and standard deviation.Results: For data from a Normal distribution, the extended method using quartiles gives good estimates of sample means but sample standard deviations are overestimated. For data from a Lognormal distribution, both sample mean and standard deviation are overestimated. Overestimation is worse for larger samples and for highly skewed parent distributions. The extended estimates using quartiles are always superior in both bias and precision to those without.Conclusions: The estimates have the advantage of being extremely simple to carry out. I argue that as, in practice, such methods will be applied to small samples, the overestimation may not be a serious problem

Retrospective cohort study of false alarm rates associated with a series of heart operations: the case for hospital mortality monitoring groups

OBJECTIVE: To examine the efficacy of different methods of detecting a high death rate and determining whether an increase in deaths after heart transplantation could be explained by chance. DESIGN:Retrospective analysis of deaths after heart transplantation. Seven methods were used: mortality above national average, mortality excessively above national average, test of moving average mortality, test of number of consecutive deaths, sequential probability ratio test (SPRT), cusum graph with v-mask, and CRAM chart. The national average mortality was not available and a rate of 15% was used instead as the benchmark. SETTING: Regional cardiothoracic unit. PARTICIPANTS: All 371 patients who received a heart transplant in the programme, 1986-2000. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: 30 day survival after transplantation. RESULTS: All methods provided evidence that the 30 day mortality had been high at some stage. The probability that the finding was a false positive depended on which test was used. At the end of the series the average mortality, sequential probability ratio, and cusum tests indicated a level of deaths higher than the benchmark while the remaining four tests yielded negative results. CONCLUSIONS:If the decision to test for outlying mortality is made retrospectively, in the light of the data, it is not possible to determine the false positive rate. Prospective on-site mortality monitoring with the CRAM chart is recommended as this method can quantify the death rate and identify periods when an audit of cases is indicated, even when data from other institutions are not available. A hospital mortality monitoring group can routinely monitor all deaths in the hospital, by specialty, using hospital episode statistics (HES) data and appropriate statistical methods

Teaching statistics to medical students using problem-based learning: the Australian experience

Background: Problem-based learning (PBL) is gaining popularity as a teaching method in UK medical schools, but statistics and research methods are not being included in this teaching. There are great disadvantages in omitting statistics and research methods from the main teaching. PBL is well established in Australian medical schools. The Australian experience in teaching statistics and research methods in curricula based on problem-based learning may provide guidance for other countries, such as the UK, where this method is being introduced. Methods: All Australian medical schools using PBL were visited, with two exceptions. Teachers of statistics and medical education specialists were interviewed. For schools which were not visited, information was obtained by email. Results: No Australian medical school taught statistics and research methods in a totally integrated way, as part of general PBL teaching. In some schools, statistical material was integrated but taught separately, using different tutors. In one school, PBL was used only for 'public health' related subjects. In some, a parallel course using more traditional techniques was given alongside the PBL teaching of other material. This model was less successful than the others. Conclusions: There are several difficulties in implementing an integrated approach. However, not integrating is detrimental to statistics and research methods teaching, which is of particular concern in the age of evidence-based medicine. Some possible ways forward are suggested

Agreement between methods of measurement with multiple observations per individual

Limits of agreement provide a straightforward and intuitive approach to agreement between different methods for measuring the same quantity. When pairs of observations using the two methods are independent, i.e., on different subjects, the calculations are very simple and straightforward. Some authors collect repeated data, either as repeated pairs of measurements on the same subject, whose true value of the measured quantity may be changing, or more than one measurement by one or both methods of an unchanging underlying quantity. In this paper we describe methods for analysing such clustered observations, both when the underlying quantity is assumed to be changing and when it is not

The large scale distribution of warm ionized gas around nearby radio galaxies with jet-cloud interactions

Deep, narrow-band Halpha observations taken with the TAURUS Tunable Filter (TTF) on the 4.2m WHT telescope are presented for two nearby radio galaxies with strong jet-cloud interactions. Although the brightest emission line components are closely aligned with the radio jets --- providing nearby examples of the ``alignment effect'' most commonly observed in high redshift (z > 0.5) radio galaxies --- lower surface brightness emission line structures are detected at large distances (10's of kpc) from the radio jet axis. These latter structures cannot be reconciled with anisotropic illumination of the ISM by obscured quasar-like sources, since parts of the structures lay outside any plausible quasar ionization cones. Rather, the distribution of the emission lines around the fringes of the extended radio lobes suggests that the gas is ionized either by direct interaction with the radio components, or by the diffuse photoionizing radiation fields produced in the shocks generated in such interactions. These observations serve to emphasise that the ionizing effects of the radio components can extend far from the radio jet axes, and that deep emission line imaging observations are required to reveal the true distribution of warm gas in the host galaxies. We expect future deep imaging observations to reveal similar structures perpendicular to the radio axes in the high-z radio galaxies.Comment: 18 pages, 4 figures, to be published in MNRA

A solution to Darwin’s dilemma of 1859 : Exceptional preservation in Salter’s material from the late Ediacaran Longmyndian Supergroup, England

Peer reviewedPostprin

Instability of Rotationally Tuned Dipolar Bose-Einstein Condensates

The possibility of effectively inverting the sign of the dipole-dipole interaction, by fast rotation of the dipole polarization, is examined within a harmonically trapped dipolar Bose-Einstein condensate. Our analysis is based on the stationary states in the Thomas-Fermi limit, in the corotating frame, as well as direct numerical simulations in the Thomas-Fermi regime, explicitly accounting for the rotating polarization. The condensate is found to be inherently unstable due to the dynamical instability of collective modes. This ultimately prevents the realization of robust and long-lived rotationally tuned states. Our findings have major implications for experimentally accessing this regime.Comment: 9 pages with 5 figure

Clinically important differences in the intensity of chronic refractory breathlessness

Context: Clinically important differences in chronic refractory breathlessness are ill defined but important in clinical practice and trial design. Objectives: To estimate the clinical relevance of differences in breathlessness intensity using distribution and patient anchor methods. Methods: This was a retrospective data analysis from 213 datasets from four clinical trials for refractory breathlessness. Linear regression was used to explore the relationship between study effect size and change in breathlessness score (0-100 mm visual analogue scale) and to estimate the change in score equivalent to small, moderate, and large effect sizes. Pooled individual blinded patient preference data from three randomized controlled trials were analyzed. The difference between the mean change in Day 4 minus baseline scores between preferred and non-preferred arms was calculated. Results: There was a strong relationship between change in score and effect size (P = 0.001; R 2 = 0.98). Values for small, moderate, and large effects were -5.5, -11.3, and -18.2 mm. The participant preference change in score was -9 mm (95% CI, -15.8, -2.1) (P = 0.008). Conclusion: This larger dataset supports a clinically important difference of 10 mm. Studies should be powered to detect this difference