Study of seasonality, impact of promotions and demand forecasting methods: based on the example of a company

Demand forecasting might be a challenging activity for any company. Actually, it is extremely difficult to predict the future trends, due to constant changes and increasing of complexity. An effective sales forecasting can become a core competence and help to surpass the competition. The present document was developed to assess the current ABC company’s demand forecasting method and to understand which factors can influence the sales of the company. Therefore, an analysis of seasonality, impact of promotions and forecasting methods was conducted. Thus, in this report both a forecasting method for the subcategory Ice Cream and an adjustment of promotions were suggested, allowing then for more accurate forecasting results

Relationships between nutrient composition of flowers and fruit quality in orange trees grown in calcareous soil

To determine if flower nutrient composition can be used to predict fruit quality, a field experiment was conducted over three seasons (1996-1999) in a commercial orange orchard (Citrus sinensis (L.) Osbeck cv. 'Valencia Late', budded on Troyer citrange rootstock) established on a calcareous soil in southern Portugal. Flowers were collected from 20 trees during full bloom in April and their nutrient composition determined, and fruits were harvested the following March and their quality evaluated. Patterns of covariation in flower nutrient concentrations and in fruit quality variables were evaluated by principal component analysis. Regression models relating fruit quality variables to flower nutrient composition were developed by stepwise selection procedures. The predictive power of the regression models was evaluated with an independent data set. Nutrient composition of flowers at full bloom could be used to predict the fruit quality variables fresh fruit mass and maturation index in the following year. Magnesium, Ca and Zn concentrations measured in flowers were related to fruit fresh mass estimations and N, P, Mg and Fe concentrations were related to fruit maturation index. We also established reference values for the nutrient composition of flowers based on measurements made in trees that produced large (> 76 mm in diameter) fruit.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Microtus cabrerae (Rodentia: Cricetidae)

Microtus cabrerae Thomas, 1906, or Cabrera’s vole, is a medium-sized arvicoline, and one of the largest Microtus species. M. cabrerae is an Iberoccitane endemic, which is currently restricted to the Iberian Peninsula, where it presents a highly fragmented distribution. The species is the sole extant representative of the anagenetic Iberomys lineage with origin in the early Pleistocene. M. cabrerae is primarily restricted to wet habitats dominated by tall grasses, sedges, and rushes. The species has experienced strong population declines mainly during the past 10 years, particularly due to agricultural intensification. M. cabrerae is currently classified by the International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources as ‘‘Near Threatened,’’ and is listed in the Habitats Directive and Bern Convention, thus requiring appropriate conservation measures

The use of sighting data to analyse Iberian lynx habitat and distribution

1. Over a large part of its very restricted and fragmented range, Iberian lynx Lynx pardinus occur in remote mountainous country at low density, where the only information about the species comprises records of incidental sightings obtained by inquiry. In this study we developed an approach for quantifying lynx-habitat relationships and distribution patterns from sighting data, using records from western Algarve (Portugal) in 1990-95. 2. Habitat was described in terms of land cover, topography, human disturbance and rabbit abundance, in 25-km(2) cells surrounding lynx sightings and at random locations within the study area. 3. Lynx sightings were consistently associated with predictable habitat features. Sighting probabilities estimated from a logistic regression model increased with the abundance of rabbits and the proportion of land covered by tall Mediterranean maquis, and declined with road density and the amount of developed land. This model identified correctly 85.7% of lynx sightings; at the same time only 20.7% of the random locations were misclassified. 4. Indices of human presence were never associated positively with lynx sightings, suggesting that observation patterns were not influenced by the spatial distribution of potential observers. 5. Kriging was used to interpolate spatially between sighting probabilities derived from the logistic model in order to produce a map of sighting potential for the Iberian lynx in western Algarve. Jack-knife resampling assessed the accuracy of this map. Three well-defined areas of high sighting potential were identified, probably representing the lynx core areas in this region. 6. Our analysis of lynx sighting records suggests that these data may provide a first approximation to lynx habitat and distribution when further information is lacking. The application of this approach to other ran and reclusive species is discussed.This study was funded by the Instituto da Conservação da Natureza (ICN) and by the European Union (Project LIFE B4±3200/94/767)info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Filling gaps in a large reserve network to address freshwater conservation needs

Freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity are among the most threatened at global scale, but efforts for their conservation have been mostly peripheral to terrestrial conservation. For example, Natura 2000, the world's largest network of protected areas, fails to cover adequately the distribution of rare and endangered aquatic species, and lacks of appropriate spatial design to make conservation for freshwater biodiversity effective. Here, we develop a framework to identify a complementary set of priority areas and enhance the conservation opportunities of Natura 2000 for freshwater biodiversity, using the Iberian Peninsula as a case study. We use a systematic planning approach to identify a minimum set of additional areas that would help i) adequately represent all freshwater fish, amphibians and aquatic reptiles at three different target levels, ii) account for key ecological processes derived from riverscape connectivity, and iii) minimize the impact of threats, both within protected areas and propagated from upstream unprotected areas. Addressing all these goals would need an increase in area between 7 and 46%, depending on the conservation target used and strength of connectivity required. These new priority areas correspond to subcatchments inhabited by endangered and range restricted species, as well as additional subcatchments required to improve connectivity among existing protected areas and to increase protection against upstream threats. Our study should help guide future revisions of the design of Natura 2000, while providing a framework to address deficiencies in reserve networks for adequately protecting freshwater biodiversity elsewhere.We acknowledge funding support provided by Griffith University and Ramon y Cajal Program (RYC-2013-13979) to VH. PB and AFF were supported by EDP Biodiversity Chair. PS was supported by a grant funded by FCT (SFRH/BPD/39067/2007)

Quem tem medo do lobo mau?

This essay intends to reflect, even if on a preliminary way, on the three concepts concerning the theme and experience of the contemporary refuge – hostility, hospitality and welcoming – in the light of a aesthetic perspective, searching to think of ways to enunciate and the plastic strategies used in the exposition “R de Resistencia o la verguenza de ser hombre” (2018), em Madri, as a denouncement to the violent actions perpetrated by the Nacional States against those requesting asylum. Starting from two ponderings: a) how to plasticly give way to a global, constant and unstable phenomenon, having in mind the internal and external political reverberations in the recipient countries?; and b) when and in which measure the pain of another stopped being a concern of the human being?; the intention is to analise the exposition and its aesthetic dimensions.Key-Words: aesthetic; immigration; refugee; art; contemporaryRESUMOEste ensaio se empenha em refletir, ainda que de forma preliminar, sobre três conceitos caros ao tema e à experiência do refúgio contemporâneo – hostilidade, hospitalidade e acolhimento – à luz de uma perspectiva estética, procurando pensar as formas de enunciação e as estratégias plásticas utilizadas na exposição “R de Resistencia o la vergüenza de ser hombre” (2018), em Madri, como denúncia às ações violentas perpetradas pelos Estados Nacionais contra os solicitantes de refúgio. Partindo de dois questionamentos: a) como dar conta plasticamente de um fenômeno global, constante e instável, tendo em vista as reverberações políticas internas e externas nos países receptores?; e b) quando e em que medida a dor do outro deixou de ser uma preocupação do ser humano?; pretende-se analisar a exposição e suas dimensões estéticas.Palavras-chave: estética; imigração; refúgio; arte; contemporâneo ABSTRACTThis essay intends to reflect, even if on a preliminary way, on the three concepts concerning the theme and experience of the contemporary refuge – hostility, hospitality and welcoming – in the light of a aesthetic perspective, searching to think of ways to enunciate and the plastic strategies used in the exposition “R de Resistencia o la verguenza de ser hombre” (2018), em Madri, as a denouncement to the violent actions perpetrated by the Nacional States against those requesting asylum. Starting from two ponderings: a) how to plasticly give way to a global, constant and unstable phenomenon, having in mind the internal and external political reverberations in the recipient countries?; and b) when and in which measure the pain of another stopped being a concern of the human being?; the intention is to analise the exposition and its aesthetic dimensions.Key-Words: aesthetic; immigration; refugee; art; contemporar

Use of tree hollows by a Mediterranean forest carnivore

Although tree hollows seem to be key structures for a wide range of forest mammals, their importance for Mediterranean forest carnivores remain poorly understood. Here we address this issue, by analysing daily resting site use by 21 radio-collared common genets. Tree hollows were used far more frequently during the wet season (October–April; 73.1% of daily locations) than in the dry season (May–September; 47.6%). Nests and underground dens were the second and third most frequently used resting sites, respectively, in both wet (17.5% and 9.4%) and dry (34.1% and 18.3%) seasons. Each individual reused a large percentage of its resting sites (65.7%). Some resting sites (17.3%) were used by more than one individual, but simultaneous sharing was exceedingly rare (0.56% of daily locations). Hollow use probability during the wet season varied little in relation to environmental variables, though there was a tendency to be higher away from riparian habitats (>50 m) and to be lower in sites with very high shrub cover (>80%). Environmental influences were responsible for more variability in the dry season, when hollow usage was highest in hot days, in days with precipitation, far from riparian habitats, close to sources of human disturbance, in landscapes dominated by continuous forest habitats, and in sites with low shrub cover. Results support the importance of tree hollows for Mediterranean forest carnivores, probably because they provide safe shelter against unfavourable weather, predators and human disturbance. However, results also revealed the importance of riparian trees, which offer support for building nests close to sources of water and food during the dry season. Considering home range size and the average number of hollow-bearing trees used by each genet, we recommend that management of cork and holm oak forests should strive to safeguard at least 4.6 hollow-bearing trees per 100 ha, while simultaneously maintaining large riparian trees. This will improve the resting habitat for common genets, while presumably favouring also other Mediterranean carnivores

Assessing landscape functional connectivity in a forest carnivore using path selection functions

Context Understanding connectivity patterns in relation to habitat fragmentation is essential to landscape management. However, connectivity is often judged from expert opinion or species occurrence patterns, with very few studies considering the actual movements of individuals. Path selection functions provide a promising tool to infer functional connectivity from animal movement data, but its practical application remains scanty. Objectives We aimed to describe functional connectivity patterns in a forest carnivore using path-level analysis, and to explore how connectivity is affected by land cover patterns and road networks. Methods We radiotracked 22 common genets in a mixed forest-agricultural landscape of southern Portugal. We developed path selection functions discriminating between observed and random paths in relation to landscape variables. These functions were used together with land cover information to map conductance surfaces. Results Genets moved preferentially within forest patches and close to riparian habitats. Functional connectivity declined with increasing road density, but increased with the proximity of culverts, viaducts and bridges. Functional connectivity was favoured by large forest patches, and by the presence of riparian areas providing corridors within open agricultural land. Roads reduced connectivity by dissecting forest patches, but had less effect on riparian corridors due to the presence of crossing structures. Conclusions Genet movements were jointly affected by the spatial distribution of suitable habitats, and the presence of a road network dissecting such habitats and creating obstacles in areas otherwise permeable to animal movement. Overall, the study showed the value of path-level analysis to assess functional connectivity patterns in human-modified landscapes

Species traits, patch turnover and successional dynamics: when does intermediate disturbance favour metapopulation occupancy?

Research articleBackground: In fragmented landscapes, natural and anthropogenic disturbances coupled with successional processes result in the destruction and creation of habitat patches. Disturbances are expected to reduce metapopulation occupancy for species associated with stable habitats, but they may benefit species adapted to transitory habitats by maintaining a dynamic mosaic of successional stages. However, while early-successional species may be favoured by very frequent disturbances resetting successional dynamics, metapopulation occupancy may be highest at intermediate disturbance levels for species with mid-successional habitat preferences, though this may be conditional on species traits and patch network characteristics. Here we test this ‘intermediate disturbance hypothesis’ applied to metapopulations (MIDH), using stochastic patch occupancy simulation modelling to assess when does intermediate disturbance favour metapopulation occupancy. We focused on 54 virtual species varying in their habitat preferences, dispersal abilities and local extinction and colonization rates. Long-term metapopulation dynamics was estimated in landscapes with different habitat amounts and patch turnover rates (i.e. disturbance frequency). Results: Equilibrium metapopulation occupancy by late-successional species strongly declined with increasing disturbance frequency, while occupancy by early-successional species increased with disturbance frequency at low disturbance levels and tended to level-off thereafter. Occupancy by mid-successional species tended to increase along with disturbance frequency at low disturbance levels and declining thereafter. Irrespective of habitat preferences, occupancy increased with the amount of habitat, and with species dispersal ability and colonisation efficiency. Conclusions: Our study suggests that MIDH is verified only for species associated with mid-successional habitats. These species may be particularly sensitive to land use changes causing either increases or decreases in disturbance frequency. This may be the case, for instance, of species associated with traditional agricultural and pastoral mosaic landscapes, where many species disappear either through intensification or abandonment processes that change disturbance frequencyinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio