Quantitative forecast model for the application of the Black-Litterman approach

The estimation of expected security returns is one of the major tasks for the practical implementation of the Markowitz portfolio optimization. Against this background, in 1992 Black and Litterman developed an approach based on (theoretically established) expected equili-brium returns which accounts for subjective investors' views as well. In contrast to historical estimated returns, which lead to extreme asset weights within the Markowitz optimization, the Black-Litterman model generally results in balanced portfolio weights. However, the existence of investors' views is crucial for the Black-Litterman model and with absent views no active portfolio management is possible. Moreover, problems with the implementation of the model arise, as analysts' forecasts are typically not available in the way they are needed for the Black-Litterman-approach. In this context we present how analysts' dividend forecasts can be used to determine an a-priori-estimation of the expected returns and how they can be integrated into the Black-Litterman model. For this purpose, confidences of the investors' views are determined from the number of analysts' forecasts as well as from a Monte-Carlo simulation. After introducing our two methods of view generation, we examine the effects of the Black-Litterman approach on portfolio weights in an empirical study. Finally, the perfor-mance of the Black-Litterman model is compared to alternative portfolio allocation strategies in an out-of-sample study. --analysts' earnings forecasts,discount rate effect,equity premium puzzle,implied rate of return

Margins of Multinational Labor Substitution

Multinational labor demand responds to wage differentials at the extensive margin, when a multinational enterprise (MNE) expands into foreign locations, and at the intensive margin, when an MNE operates existing affiliates across locations. We derive conditions for parametric and nonparametric identification of an MNE model to infer elasticities of labor substitution at both margins, controlling for location selectivity. Prior studies have rarely found foreign wages or operations to affect employment. Our strategy detects salient adjustments at the extensive margin for German MNEs. With every percentage increase in German wages, German MNEs allocate 2,000 manufacturing jobs to Eastern Europe at the extensive margin and 4,000 jobs overall.multinational enterprise, location choice, sample selectivity, labor demand, translog cost function, nonparametric estimation

Margins of multinational labor substitution

Multinational labor demand responds to wage differentials at the extensive margin, when a multinational enterprise (MNE) expands into foreign locations, and at the intensive margin, when an MNE operates existing affiliates across locations. We derive conditions for parametric and nonparametric identification of an MNE model to infer elasticities of labor substitution at both margins, controlling for location selectivity. Prior studies rarely found foreign wages or operations to affect employment. Our strategy detects salient adjustments for German MNEs. With a one-percent increase in German wages, German MNEs add 2,000 manufacturing jobs in Eastern Europe at the extensive margin and 4,000 jobs overall; a converse one-percent drop in Eastern European wages is associated with an overall withdrawal of 730 MNE jobs from Germany. --Multinational enterprise,location choice,multiple sample selectivity,labor demand,translog cost function,nonparametric estimation

The effect of FDI on job separation

A novel linked employer-employee data set documents that expanding multinational enterprises retain more domestic jobs than competitors without foreign expansions. In contrast to prior research, a propensity score estimator allows enterprise performance to vary with foreign direct investment (FDI) and shows that the foreign expansion itself is the dominant explanatory factor for reduced worker separation rates. Bounding, concomitant variable tests, and robustness checks rule out competing hypotheses. The finding is consistent with the idea that, given global factor price differences, a prevention of enterprises from outward FDI would lead to more domestic worker separations. FDI raises domestic-worker retention more pronouncedly among highly educated workers and for expansions into distant locations. --Multinational enterprises,international investment,demand for labor,worker layoffs,linked employer-employee data

En busca de tinterillos. Intermediarios en el mundo indígena ecuatoriano durante el siglo XX (Debates)

Este artículo aborda el papel de los abogados semiprofesionales, conocidos como tinterillos, en las comunidades indígenas de la sierra ecuatoriana, a partir de mediados del siglo XIX, quienes adquirieron una presencia aparentemente ubicua en las comunidades rurales del Ecuador. Muchas veces los tinterillos fueron parte de las élites locales con algo de educación. Inspiraban respeto entre los indígenas (quienes, en su mayoría, eran analfabetos) debido a su habilidad a manejar documentos escritos. Estos intermediarios comúnmente explotaron su posición privilegiada para su propio beneficio económico, social y político. Sin embargo, los indígenas llegaron a depender del apoyo de los tinterillos para denunciar ante el gobierno los abusos de los terratenientes. En ocasiones, en lugar de sentirse impotentes o víctimas, los indígenas aprendieron a negociar sus relaciones con esos intermediarios para su beneficio. El estudio de los tinterillos permite examinar las relaciones de poder que se negociaron entre diferentes culturas y a través de profundas divisiones de clase.This article anaylises the role of semiprofessional lawyers, known as tinterillos, in indigenous communities in the Ecuadorian mountains, from the mid-19th century, who acquired a seemingly ubiquitous presence in rural communities of Ecuador. Often tinterillos were local elites with some education. They inspired respect among Indians (most of whom were illiterate) due to their ability to handle written documents. These middlemen commonly exploited their position to their own economic, social and political benefit. However, the Indians came to depend on the support of tinterillos to report the abuses of landowners to the government. Sometimes, instead of feeling powerless or as victims, the Indians learned to negotiate their relationships with these intermediaries for their own benefit. The study of tinterillos allows us to examine the relationships of power that were negotiated between different cultures and through profound class divisions

Offshoring and the onshore composition of tasks and skills

We analyze the relationship between offshoring and the onshore workforce composition in German multinational enterprises (MNEs), using plant data that allow us to discern tasks, occupations, and workforce skills. Offshoring is associated with a statistically significant shift towards more non-routine and more interactive tasks, and with a shift towards highly educated workers. The shift towards highly educated workers is in excess of what is implied by changes in either the task or the occupational composition. Offshoring to low-income countries—with the exception of Central and Eastern European countries—is associated with stronger onshore responses. We find offshoring to predict between 10 and 15 percent of observed changes in wage-bill shares of highly educated workers and measures of non-routine and interactive tasks

Review of Bighorse The Warrior

Bighorse The Warrior recounts the story of Gus Bighorse, a Navajo warrior who lived through attacks by Kit Carson and the United States Army, the Navajos\u27 Long Walk, and the death of thousands of his people in the nineteenth century. In the oral history tradition of the Navajo people, Bighorse passed his stories on to his children, and this book stands as a tribute to the clarity and accuracy of that tradition. In this interesting and readable personal account, his daughter Tiana Bighorse gives voice to his memory. This book is not the story of a tragic victimization of the Navajos but of the triumph of human vision and courage

Conserved substitution patterns around nucleosome footprints in eukaryotes and Archaea derive from frequent nucleosome repositioning through evolution.

Nucleosomes, the basic repeat units of eukaryotic chromatin, have been suggested to influence the evolution of eukaryotic genomes, both by altering the propensity of DNA to mutate and by selection acting to maintain or exclude nucleosomes in particular locations. Contrary to the popular idea that nucleosomes are unique to eukaryotes, histone proteins have also been discovered in some archaeal genomes. Archaeal nucleosomes, however, are quite unlike their eukaryotic counterparts in many respects, including their assembly into tetramers (rather than octamers) from histone proteins that lack N- and C-terminal tails. Here, we show that despite these fundamental differences the association between nucleosome footprints and sequence evolution is strikingly conserved between humans and the model archaeon Haloferax volcanii. In light of this finding we examine whether selection or mutation can explain concordant substitution patterns in the two kingdoms. Unexpectedly, we find that neither the mutation nor the selection model are sufficient to explain the observed association between nucleosomes and sequence divergence. Instead, we demonstrate that nucleosome-associated substitution patterns are more consistent with a third model where sequence divergence results in frequent repositioning of nucleosomes during evolution. Indeed, we show that nucleosome repositioning is both necessary and largely sufficient to explain the association between current nucleosome positions and biased substitution patterns. This finding highlights the importance of considering the direction of causality between genetic and epigenetic change

Offshoring and the Onshore Composition of Tasks and Skills

We analyze the relationship between o®shoring and the onshore workforce composition tasks, occupations, and workforce skills. O®shoring is associated with a statistically signi¯cant shift towards more non-routine and more interactive tasks, and with a shift towards highly educated workers. Moreover, the shift towards highly educated work- ers is in excess of what is implied by changes in either the task or the occupational composition. Whether o®shored activities are located in low-income or high-income countries does not alter the direction of the relationship. We ¯nd o®shoring to predict between 10 and 15 percent of observed changes in wage-bill shares of highly educated workers and measures of non-routine and interactive tasks.trade in tasks, multinational firms, demand for labor, linked-employer-employee data

The CIA in Ecuador

In The CIA in Ecuador, Marc Becker draws on recently released US government surveillance documents on the Ecuadorian left to chart social movement organizing efforts during the 1950s. Emphasizing the competing roles of the domestic ruling class and grassroots social movements, Becker details the struggles and difficulties that activists, organizers, and political parties confronted. He shows how leftist groups, including the Communist Party of Ecuador, navigated disagreements over tactics and ideology, and how these influenced shifting strategies in support of rural Indigenous communities and urban labor movements. He outlines the CIA's failure to understand that the Ecuadorian left was rooted in local social struggles rather than being bankrolled by the Soviet Union. By decentering US-Soviet power struggles, Becker shows that the local patterns and dynamics that shaped the development of the Ecuadorian left could be found throughout Latin American during the cold war