Improving the FEH statistical procedures for flood frequency estimation

This report recommends changes to the procedures contained in the Flood Estimation Handbook (FEH), which have been adopted as standard practice by the principal bodies engaged in flood frequency estimation in the UK and, in particular, by the Environment Agency. These procedures provide estimates of the flows that will occur in rivers on moderately rare occasions: flow values that have an exceedance probability in any given year of 50 per cent (a 2-year return period) to 1 per cent (a 100-year return period), or even more rare. In the majority of cases where such estimates are required, the locations affected will be ungauged and too far from established river gauging stations to provide data records that can be immediately transferred. The changes recommended arise, in part, because the HiFlows-UK project has led to the creation of a much-improved database of systematically recorded flood data. Not only are the data records now much longer than those used previously but the HiFlows-UK project put substantial effort into the quality control and assessment of the whole data-set. This means that the data available for analysis have been dramatically improved. Another influence on the renewed procedures has been feedback from users of the FEH, both informal and formal. Without substantially changing the overall framework of the methodology, most technical details of the method have been updated to improve the performance of the procedure. The updates include significant improvements to the theoretical statistical framework underlying the method. In addition, it has been possible to consider some new descriptors of catchment topography and local climate that have been proposed since the FEH study. In particular, a new descriptor that measures floodplain extent has been devised and is now included in the improved procedures. This report is largely a technical description of the studies that have led to the new recommendations. The folllowing are the key improvements. • A new regression model for estimating the median annual maximum flood (QMED) at ungauged catchments (Chapter 4). • An improved procedure for the use of donor catchments for estimation of QMED at ungauged catchments (Chapter 5). • An improved procedure for formation of pooling groups and estimation of pooled growth curves (Chapter 6). Flood estimates produced by the new procedures can be substantially different from those produced using the original FEH procedures. On taking the catchments whose data have been analysed as typical examples, and treating them as if they were ungauged, the ratios of the new estimates to the FEH estimates indicate the following changes. • The changes in QMED range from 0.55 to 2.01, with half being greater than 1.15 (25 per cent of the ratios are less than 1.00, and 25 per cent are greater than 1.24). • For floods with an annual probability of exceedance of 1 per cent (the 1 per cent flood), the changes range from 0.48 to 2.24, with half being greater than 1.14 (25 per cent of the ratios are less than 0.97 and 25 per cent are greater than 1.32). For both QMED and the 1 per cent flood, the new procedure produced lower estimates than the FEH in the East of England, whereas increases in both quantities were generally observed in West England, Wales and Scotland

Introductory programming: a systematic literature review

As computing becomes a mainstream discipline embedded in the school curriculum and acts as an enabler for an increasing range of academic disciplines in higher education, the literature on introductory programming is growing. Although there have been several reviews that focus on specific aspects of introductory programming, there has been no broad overview of the literature exploring recent trends across the breadth of introductory programming. This paper is the report of an ITiCSE working group that conducted a systematic review in order to gain an overview of the introductory programming literature. Partitioning the literature into papers addressing the student, teaching, the curriculum, and assessment, we explore trends, highlight advances in knowledge over the past 15 years, and indicate possible directions for future research

Effects of antiplatelet therapy on stroke risk by brain imaging features of intracerebral haemorrhage and cerebral small vessel diseases: subgroup analyses of the RESTART randomised, open-label trial

Background Findings from the RESTART trial suggest that starting antiplatelet therapy might reduce the risk of recurrent symptomatic intracerebral haemorrhage compared with avoiding antiplatelet therapy. Brain imaging features of intracerebral haemorrhage and cerebral small vessel diseases (such as cerebral microbleeds) are associated with greater risks of recurrent intracerebral haemorrhage. We did subgroup analyses of the RESTART trial to explore whether these brain imaging features modify the effects of antiplatelet therapy

T cell phenotypes in COVID-19 - a living review

COVID-19 is characterized by profound lymphopenia in the peripheral blood, and the remaining T cells display altered phenotypes, characterized by a spectrum of activation and exhaustion. However, antigen-specific T cell responses are emerging as a crucial mechanism for both clearance of the virus and as the most likely route to long-lasting immune memory that would protect against re-infection. Therefore, T cell responses are also of considerable interest in vaccine development. Furthermore, persistent alterations in T cell subset composition and function post-infection have important implications for patients’ long-term immune function. In this review, we examine T cell phenotypes, including those of innate T cells, in both peripheral blood and lungs, and consider how key markers of activation and exhaustion correlate with, and may be able to predict, disease severity. We focus on SARS-CoV-2-specific T cells to elucidate markers that may indicate formation of antigen-specific T cell memory. We also examine peripheral T cell phenotypes in recovery and the likelihood of long-lasting immune disruption. Finally, we discuss T cell phenotypes in the lung as important drivers of both virus clearance and tissue damage. As our knowledge of the adaptive immune response to COVID-19 rapidly evolves, it has become clear that while some areas of the T cell response have been investigated in some detail, others, such as the T cell response in children remain largely unexplored. Therefore, this review will also highlight areas where T cell phenotypes require urgent characterisation

The role and uses of antibodies in COVID-19 infections: a living review

Coronavirus disease 2019 has generated a rapidly evolving field of research, with the global scientific community striving for solutions to the current pandemic. Characterizing humoral responses towards SARS-CoV-2, as well as closely related strains, will help determine whether antibodies are central to infection control, and aid the design of therapeutics and vaccine candidates. This review outlines the major aspects of SARS-CoV-2-specific antibody research to date, with a focus on the various prophylactic and therapeutic uses of antibodies to alleviate disease in addition to the potential of cross-reactive therapies and the implications of long-term immunity

Convalescent plasma in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 (RECOVERY): a randomised controlled, open-label, platform trial

SummaryBackground Azithromycin has been proposed as a treatment for COVID-19 on the basis of its immunomodulatoryactions. We aimed to evaluate the safety and efficacy of azithromycin in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19.Methods In this randomised, controlled, open-label, adaptive platform trial (Randomised Evaluation of COVID-19Therapy [RECOVERY]), several possible treatments were compared with usual care in patients admitted to hospitalwith COVID-19 in the UK. The trial is underway at 176 hospitals in the UK. Eligible and consenting patients wererandomly allocated to either usual standard of care alone or usual standard of care plus azithromycin 500 mg once perday by mouth or intravenously for 10 days or until discharge (or allocation to one of the other RECOVERY treatmentgroups). Patients were assigned via web-based simple (unstratified) randomisation with allocation concealment andwere twice as likely to be randomly assigned to usual care than to any of the active treatment groups. Participants andlocal study staff were not masked to the allocated treatment, but all others involved in the trial were masked to theoutcome data during the trial. The primary outcome was 28-day all-cause mortality, assessed in the intention-to-treatpopulation. The trial is registered with ISRCTN, 50189673, and ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04381936.Findings Between April 7 and Nov 27, 2020, of 16 442 patients enrolled in the RECOVERY trial, 9433 (57%) wereeligible and 7763 were included in the assessment of azithromycin. The mean age of these study participants was65·3 years (SD 15·7) and approximately a third were women (2944 [38%] of 7763). 2582 patients were randomlyallocated to receive azithromycin and 5181 patients were randomly allocated to usual care alone. Overall,561 (22%) patients allocated to azithromycin and 1162 (22%) patients allocated to usual care died within 28 days(rate ratio 0·97, 95% CI 0·87–1·07; p=0·50). No significant difference was seen in duration of hospital stay (median10 days [IQR 5 to >28] vs 11 days [5 to >28]) or the proportion of patients discharged from hospital alive within 28 days(rate ratio 1·04, 95% CI 0·98–1·10; p=0·19). Among those not on invasive mechanical ventilation at baseline, nosignificant difference was seen in the proportion meeting the composite endpoint of invasive mechanical ventilationor death (risk ratio 0·95, 95% CI 0·87–1·03; p=0·24).Interpretation In patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19, azithromycin did not improve survival or otherprespecified clinical outcomes. Azithromycin use in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 should be restrictedto patients in whom there is a clear antimicrobial indication

The health outcomes and costs of people attending an interdisciplinary chronic disease service in regional Australia: protocol for a longitudinal cohort investigation

Background: Rates of chronic disease are escalating around the world. To date health service evaluations have focused on interventions for single chronic diseases. However, evaluations of the effectiveness of new intervention strategies that target single chronic diseases as well as multimorbidity are required, particularly in areas outside major metropolitan centres where access to services, such as specialist care, is difficult and where the retention and recruitment of health professionals affects service provision. Methods. This study is a longitudinal investigation with a baseline and three follow-up assessments comparing the health and health costs of people with chronic disease before and after intervention at a chronic disease clinic, in regional Australia. The clinic is led by students under the supervision of health professionals. The study will provide preliminary evidence regarding the effectiveness of the intervention, and evaluate the influence of a range of factors on the health outcomes and costs of the patients attending the clinic. Patients will be evaluated at baseline (intake to the service), and at 3-, 6-, and 12-months after intake to the service. Health will be measured using the SF-36 and health costs will be measured using government and medical record sources. The intervention involves students and health professionals from multiple professions working together to treat patients with programs that include education and exercise therapy programs for back pain, and Healthy Lifestyle programs; as well as individual consultations involving single professions. Discussion. Understanding the effect of a range of factors on the health state and health costs of people attending an interdisciplinary clinic will inform health service provision for this clinical group and will determine which factors need to be controlled for in future observational studies. Preliminary evidence regarding changes in health and health costs associated with the intervention will be a platform for future clinical trials of intervention effectiveness. The results will be of interest to teams investigating new chronic disease programs particularly for people with multimorbidity, and in areas outside major metropolitan centres. Trial registration. Australia and New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry: ACTRN12611000724976