Measuring Volatility in Dairy Commodity Prices

The policy environment facing the EU dairy industry continues to undergo considerable change under WTO and CAP reform. Movement away from supply management by the EU and a more liberal global agricultural trading system will involve greater price volatility for dairy commodities. It is anticipated that EU dairy prices will more closely align with world prices. World prices are both lower and more volatile than EU prices and it is further assumed that this increased volatility will be transmitted to EU prices. Price volatility is a concern for a number of reasons as it adds challenges for business planning, debt repayment, and, in some cases, solvency. Representative EU and world butter and SMP (Skim Milk Powder) prices are considered and using the ARMA and GARCH framework their volatility is quantified.Price Volatility, ARMA, GARCH, Butter, SMP, Dairy Policy, Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety,

Managing Price Risk in a Changing Policy Environment: The Case of the EU Dairy Industry

The EU dairy industry faces an unprecedented level of change. The anticipated removal of milk quotas and the move to a less restricted global trade environment will provide the industry with both opportunities and challenges. The primary challenge will be the need for the industry to deal with more volatile prices. Active management of the risks associated with these more volatile prices will help to place the industry in a more competitive position. However this will require the industry and policy makers to embrace a new set of tools. For example the US dairy industry has been much more active in the management of risk and lessons from their experience provide a valuable insight into which tools may be more appropriate in an EU context.Dairy, Risk Management, EU, US,

Phylogenomic analysis of a 55.1 kb 19-gene dataset resolves a monophyletic Fusarium that includes the Fusarium solani Species Complex

Scientific communication is facilitated by a data-driven, scientifically sound taxonomy that considers the end-user¿s needs and established successful practice. In 2013, the Fusarium community voiced near unanimous support for a concept of Fusarium that represented a clade comprising all agriculturally and clinically important Fusarium species, including the F. solani species complex (FSSC). Subsequently, this concept was challenged in 2015 by one research group who proposed dividing the genus Fusarium into seven genera, including the FSSC described as members of the genus Neocosmospora, with subsequent justification in 2018 based on claims that the 2013 concept of Fusarium is polyphyletic. Here, we test this claim and provide a phylogeny based on exonic nucleotide sequences of 19 orthologous protein-coding genes that strongly support the monophyly of Fusarium including the FSSC. We reassert the practical and scientific argument in support of a genus Fusarium that includes the FSSC and several other basal lineages, consistent with the longstanding use of this name among plant pathologists, medical mycologists, quarantine officials, regulatory agencies, students, and researchers with a stake in its taxonomy. In recognition of this monophyly, 40 species described as genus Neocosmospora were recombined in genus Fusarium, and nine others were renamed Fusarium. Here the global Fusarium community voices strong support for the inclusion of the FSSC in Fusarium, as it remains the best scientific, nomenclatural, and practical taxonomic option availabl

Energy intake and energy expenditure of pre-professional female contemporary dancers

Many athletes in aesthetic and weight dependent sports are at risk of energy imbalance. However little is known about the exercise and eating behaviours of highly trained dance populations. This investigation sought to determine the energy intake and energy expenditure of pre-professional female contemporary dancers. Twenty-five female contemporary dance students completed the study. Over a 7-day period, including five week days (with scheduled dance training at a conservatoire) and two weekend days (with no scheduled dance training at the conservatoire), energy intake (self-reported weighed food diary and 24 h dietary recall) and expenditure (tri-axial accelerometry) were recorded. Mean daily energy intake and expenditure were different over the 7-day period (P = 0.014) equating to an energy deficit of -356 ± 668 kcal·day-1 (or -1.5 ± 2.8 MJ·day-1). Energy expenditure was not different when comparing week and weekend days (P = 0.297). However daily energy intake (P = 0.002), energy availability (P = 0.003), and energy balance (P = 0.004) were lower during the week compared to the weekend, where energy balance became positive. The percentage contribution of macronutrients to total energy intake also differed; with higher fat (P = 0.022) and alcohol (P = 0.020), and lower carbohydrate (P = 0.001) and a trend for lower protein (P = 0.051) at the weekend. Energy balance and appropriate macronutrient intake are essential for maintaining the demands of training, performance and recovery. Whilst aesthetics are important, female contemporary dancers may be at risk of the numerous health and performance impairments associated with negative energy balance, particularly during periods of scheduled training

Breast cancer management pathways during the COVID-19 pandemic: outcomes from the UK ‘Alert Level 4’ phase of the B-MaP-C study

Abstract: Background: The B-MaP-C study aimed to determine alterations to breast cancer (BC) management during the peak transmission period of the UK COVID-19 pandemic and the potential impact of these treatment decisions. Methods: This was a national cohort study of patients with early BC undergoing multidisciplinary team (MDT)-guided treatment recommendations during the pandemic, designated ‘standard’ or ‘COVID-altered’, in the preoperative, operative and post-operative setting. Findings: Of 3776 patients (from 64 UK units) in the study, 2246 (59%) had ‘COVID-altered’ management. ‘Bridging’ endocrine therapy was used (n = 951) where theatre capacity was reduced. There was increasing access to COVID-19 low-risk theatres during the study period (59%). In line with national guidance, immediate breast reconstruction was avoided (n = 299). Where adjuvant chemotherapy was omitted (n = 81), the median benefit was only 3% (IQR 2–9%) using ‘NHS Predict’. There was the rapid adoption of new evidence-based hypofractionated radiotherapy (n = 781, from 46 units). Only 14 patients (1%) tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 during their treatment journey. Conclusions: The majority of ‘COVID-altered’ management decisions were largely in line with pre-COVID evidence-based guidelines, implying that breast cancer survival outcomes are unlikely to be negatively impacted by the pandemic. However, in this study, the potential impact of delays to BC presentation or diagnosis remains unknown

Active Versus Passive Investing - An Analysis of UK Equity Markets, 1991-2005

This study examines the pattern of active versus passive trading in UK equities over the period 1991-2005. We describe a metric to analyse trading activity and volumes in the UK FTSE350 and AIM markets, with emphasis on industrial and size-based effects. Our findings indicate that active stock picking has been consistently declining in the UK market over the period studied for all markets, size quintiles and in virtually every industrial sector. Moreover, trading patterns reveal a pronounced size effect with significantly less stock picking in larger capitalisation stocks vis-à-vis smaller stocks. Patterns of investment in the AIM suggest an increase in index trading over time but higher overall levels of stock picking relative to the FTSE350 list

Active Versus Passive Investing - An Analysis of UK Equity Markets, 1991-2005

This study examines the pattern of active versus passive trading in UK equities over the period 1991-2005. We describe a metric to analyse trading activity and volumes in the UK FTSE350 and AIM markets, with emphasis on industrial and size-based effects. Our findings indicate that active stock picking has been consistently declining in the UK market over the period studied for all markets, size quintiles and in virtually every industrial sector. Moreover, trading patterns reveal a pronounced size effect with significantly less stock picking in larger capitalisation stocks vis-à-vis smaller stocks. Patterns of investment in the AIM suggest an increase in index trading over time but higher overall levels of stock picking relative to the FTSE350 list

The Seasoned-Equity Issues of UK Firms: Market Reaction and Issuance Method Choice

This study examines the seasoned equity issues of companies traded on the London Stock Exchange. Recent regulatory changes have allowed UK firms more discretion in choice of issue approach, and this has led many firms to issue through placing in preference to a rights issue. Having first documented the trend towards increasing use of placings, we go on to identify an interesting subset of placings that are less likely to be anticipated by the market, and find a significant positive market reaction to such placings, which contrasts with the significant negative reaction we find for issues by rights. We also examine the choice of seasoned equity issuance method, focusing on the choice between placings versus rights issues. We develop a model to explain the choice of equity issue method that achieves a high level of predictive accuracy. Copyright Blackwell Publishers Ltd, 2006.

Managing Price Risk in a Changing Policy Environment: The Case of the EU Dairy Industry

The EU dairy industry faces an unprecedented level of change. The anticipated removal of milk quotas and the move to a less restricted global trade environment will provide the industry with both opportunities and challenges. The primary challenge will be the need for the industry to deal with more volatile prices. Active management of the risks associated with these more volatile prices will help to place the industry in a more competitive position. However this will require the industry and policy makers to embrace a new set of tools. For example the US dairy industry has been much more active in the management of risk and lessons from their experience provide a valuable insight into which tools may be more appropriate in an EU context

Measuring Volatility in Dairy Commodity Prices

The policy environment facing the EU dairy industry continues to undergo considerable change under WTO and CAP reform. Movement away from supply management by the EU and a more liberal global agricultural trading system will involve greater price volatility for dairy commodities. It is anticipated that EU dairy prices will more closely align with world prices. World prices are both lower and more volatile than EU prices and it is further assumed that this increased volatility will be transmitted to EU prices. Price volatility is a concern for a number of reasons as it adds challenges for business planning, debt repayment, and, in some cases, solvency. Representative EU and world butter and SMP (Skim Milk Powder) prices are considered and using the ARMA and GARCH framework their volatility is quantified