Measurement error in a multi-level analysis of air pollution and health: a simulation study.

BACKGROUND: Spatio-temporal models are increasingly being used to predict exposure to ambient outdoor air pollution at high spatial resolution for inclusion in epidemiological analyses of air pollution and health. Measurement error in these predictions can nevertheless have impacts on health effect estimation. Using statistical simulation we aim to investigate the effects of such error within a multi-level model analysis of long and short-term pollutant exposure and health. METHODS: Our study was based on a theoretical sample of 1000 geographical sites within Greater London. Simulations of "true" site-specific daily mean and 5-year mean NO2 and PM10 concentrations, incorporating both temporal variation and spatial covariance, were informed by an analysis of daily measurements over the period 2009-2013 from fixed location urban background monitors in the London area. In the context of a multi-level single-pollutant Poisson regression analysis of mortality, we investigated scenarios in which we specified: the Pearson correlation between modelled and "true" data and the ratio of their variances (model versus "true") and assumed these parameters were the same spatially and temporally. RESULTS: In general, health effect estimates associated with both long and short-term exposure were biased towards the null with the level of bias increasing to over 60% as the correlation coefficient decreased from 0.9 to 0.5 and the variance ratio increased from 0.5 to 2. However, for a combination of high correlation (0.9) and small variance ratio (0.5) non-trivial bias (> 25%) away from the null was observed. Standard errors of health effect estimates, though unaffected by changes in the correlation coefficient, appeared to be attenuated for variance ratios > 1 but inflated for variance ratios < 1. CONCLUSION: While our findings suggest that in most cases modelling errors result in attenuation of the effect estimate towards the null, in some situations a non-trivial bias away from the null may occur. The magnitude and direction of bias appears to depend on the relationship between modelled and "true" data in terms of their correlation and the ratio of their variances. These factors should be taken into account when assessing the validity of modelled air pollution predictions for use in complex epidemiological models

Impact of long-term elosulfase alfa treatment on respiratory function in patients with Morquio A syndrome

OBJECTIVE: To present long-term respiratory function outcomes from an open-label, multi-center, phase 3 extension study (MOR-005) of elosulfase alfa enzyme replacement therapy (ERT) in patients with Morquio A syndrome. METHODS: In part 1 of MOR-005, patients initially randomized to ERT in the 24-week pivotal study (MOR-004) remained on their regimen (2.0 mg/kg/week or every other week); placebo patients were re-randomized to one of the two regimens. During part 2, all patients received elosulfase alfa 2.0 mg/kg/week. Respiratory function was one of the efficacy endpoints evaluated in MOR-005. Change from MOR-004 baseline to 120 weeks of treatment for the combined population was determined and compared with results from untreated patients from a Morquio A natural history study (MorCAP). RESULTS: Maximum voluntary ventilation (MVV) improved up to week 72 and then stabilized; forced vital capacity (FVC) and forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) increased continuously over 120 weeks. Mean increases in the modified per-protocol population was 9.2 % for FVC, 8.8 % for FEV1, and 6.1 % for MVV after 120 weeks. All patients ≤14 years showed respiratory improvements, presumably in part related to growth; however, these were greater in treated patients. For those >14 years, treated patients showed improvements, while deterioration occurred in untreated. Altogether, the improvements were significantly greater (P < 0.05) in treated patients. CONCLUSIONS: Long-term ERT is associated with sustained improvements in respiratory function in Morquio A. In younger patients (≤14 years), some improvement may be ascribed to growth. In older patients, other mechanisms, e.g., decreased glycosaminoglycan storage, are likely involved

Long-term endurance and safety of elosulfase alfa enzyme replacement therapy in patients with Morquio A syndrome

Long-term efficacy and safety of elosulfase alfa enzyme replacement therapy were evaluated in Morquio A patients over 96weeks (reaching 120weeks in total from pre-treatment baseline) in an open-label, multi-center, phase III extension study. During this extension of a 24-week placebo-controlled phase III study, all patients initially received 2.0mg/kg elosulfase alfa either weekly or every other week, prior to establishment of 2.0mg/kg/week as the recommended dose, at which point all patients received weekly treatment. Efficacy measures were compared to baseline of the initial 24-week study, enabling analyses of changes over 120weeks. In addition to performing analyses for the entire intent-to-treat (ITT) population (N=173), analyses were also performed for a modified per-protocol (MPP) population (N=124), which excluded patients who had orthopedic surgery during the extension study or were non-compliant with the study protocol (as determined by ≥20% missed infusions). Six-minute walk test (6MWT) was the primary efficacy measure; three-minute stair climb test (3MSCT) and normalized urine keratan sulfate (uKS) were secondary efficacy measures. Mean (SE) change from baseline to Week 120 in 6MWT distance was 32.0 (11.3)m and 39.9 (10.1)m for patients receiving elosulfase alfa at 2.0mg/kg/week throughout the study (N=56) and 15.1 (7.1)m and 31.7 (6.8)m in all patients combined, regardless of dosing regimen, for the ITT and MPP populations, respectively. Further analyses revealed that durability of 6MWT improvements was not impacted by baseline 6MWT distance, use of a walking aid, or age. Mean (SE) change at Week 120 in the 3MSCT was 5.5 (1.9) and 6.7 (2.0)stairs/min for patients receiving elosulfase alfa at 2.0mg/kg/week throughout the study and 4.3 (1.2) and 6.8 (1.3)stairs/min in all patients combined, regardless of dosing regimen, for the ITT and MPP populations, respectively Across all patients, mean (SE) change at Week 120 in normalized uKS was -59.4 (1.8)% and -62.3 (1.8)% in the ITT and MPP populations, respectively. In the absence of a placebo group, significance of the sustained improvements could not be evaluated directly. However, to provide context for interpretation of results, comparisons were performed with untreated patients from a Morquio A natural history study. In contrast to the results of the extension study, the untreated patients experienced constant uKS levels and a gradual decline in endurance test results over a similar period of time. Differences from the untreated natural history study patients were significant for 6MWT, 3MSCT, and uKS outcomes for the cohort of patients receiving optimal dosing throughout the study and for all cohorts pooled together, for both ITT and MPP populations (P<0.05). Safety findings were consistent with those of the initial 24-week study, with no new safety signals identified

The role of enzyme replacement therapy in severe Hunter syndrome—an expert panel consensus

Intravenous enzyme replacement therapy (ERT) with idursulfase for Hunter syndrome has not been demonstrated to and is not predicted to cross the blood–brain barrier. Nearly all published experience with ERT with idursulfase has therefore been in patients without cognitive impairment (attenuated phenotype). Little formal guidance is available on the issues surrounding ERT in cognitively impaired patients with the severe phenotype. An expert panel was therefore convened to provide guidance on these issues. The clinical experience of the panel with 66 patients suggests that somatic improvements (e.g., reduction in liver volume, increased mobility, and reduction in frequency of respiratory infections) may occur in most severe patients. Cognitive benefits have not been seen. It was agreed that, in general, severe patients are candidates for at least a 6–12-month trial of ERT, excluding patients who are severely neurologically impaired, those in a vegetative state, or those who have a condition that may lead to near-term death. It is imperative that the treating physician discuss the goals of treatment, methods of assessment of response, and criteria for discontinuation of treatment with the family before ERT is initiated. Conclusion: The decision to initiate ERT in severe Hunter syndrome should be made by the physician and parents and must be based on realistic expectations of benefits and risks, with the understanding that ERT may be withdrawn in the absence of demonstrable benefits

Neotropical Bats: Estimating Species Diversity with DNA Barcodes

DNA barcoding using the cytochrome c oxidase subunit 1 gene (COI) is frequently employed as an efficient method of species identification in animal life and may also be used to estimate species richness, particularly in understudied faunas. Despite numerous past demonstrations of the efficiency of this technique, few studies have attempted to employ DNA barcoding methodologies on a large geographic scale, particularly within tropical regions. In this study we survey current and potential species diversity using DNA barcodes with a collection of more than 9000 individuals from 163 species of Neotropical bats (order Chiroptera). This represents one of the largest surveys to employ this strategy on any animal group and is certainly the largest to date for land vertebrates. Our analysis documents the utility of this tool over great geographic distances and across extraordinarily diverse habitats. Among the 163 included species 98.8% possessed distinct sets of COI haplotypes making them easily recognizable at this locus. We detected only a single case of shared haplotypes. Intraspecific diversity in the region was high among currently recognized species (mean of 1.38%, range 0–11.79%) with respect to birds, though comparable to other bat assemblages. In 44 of 163 cases, well-supported, distinct intraspecific lineages were identified which may suggest the presence of cryptic species though mean and maximum intraspecific divergence were not good predictors of their presence. In all cases, intraspecific lineages require additional investigation using complementary molecular techniques and additional characters such as morphology and acoustic data. Our analysis provides strong support for the continued assembly of DNA barcoding libraries and ongoing taxonomic investigation of bats

Grand Challenges in global eye health: a global prioritisation process using Delphi method

Background: We undertook a Grand Challenges in Global Eye Health prioritisation exercise to identify the key issues that must be addressed to improve eye health in the context of an ageing population, to eliminate persistent inequities in health-care access, and to mitigate widespread resource limitations. Methods: Drawing on methods used in previous Grand Challenges studies, we used a multi-step recruitment strategy to assemble a diverse panel of individuals from a range of disciplines relevant to global eye health from all regions globally to participate in a three-round, online, Delphi-like, prioritisation process to nominate and rank challenges in global eye health. Through this process, we developed both global and regional priority lists. Findings: Between Sept 1 and Dec 12, 2019, 470 individuals complete round 1 of the process, of whom 336 completed all three rounds (round 2 between Feb 26 and March 18, 2020, and round 3 between April 2 and April 25, 2020) 156 (46%) of 336 were women, 180 (54%) were men. The proportion of participants who worked in each region ranged from 104 (31%) in sub-Saharan Africa to 21 (6%) in central Europe, eastern Europe, and in central Asia. Of 85 unique challenges identified after round 1, 16 challenges were prioritised at the global level; six focused on detection and treatment of conditions (cataract, refractive error, glaucoma, diabetic retinopathy, services for children and screening for early detection), two focused on addressing shortages in human resource capacity, five on other health service and policy factors (including strengthening policies, integration, health information systems, and budget allocation), and three on improving access to care and promoting equity. Interpretation: This list of Grand Challenges serves as a starting point for immediate action by funders to guide investment in research and innovation in eye health. It challenges researchers, clinicians, and policy makers to build collaborations to address specific challenges. Funding: The Queen Elizabeth Diamond Jubilee Trust, Moorfields Eye Charity, National Institute for Health Research Moorfields Biomedical Research Centre, Wellcome Trust, Sightsavers, The Fred Hollows Foundation, The Seva Foundation, British Council for the Prevention of Blindness, and Christian Blind Mission. Translations: For the French, Spanish, Chinese, Portuguese, Arabic and Persian translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section

Mortality from cutaneous melanoma: evidence for contrasting trends between populations

In recent years several reports have been published concerning trends in melanoma mortality in different countries, some of which have indicated that rates are beginning to fall. Many of these reports, however, have been based on small populations and have used different forms of statistical analysis. Our objective was to analyse systematically to what degree the epidemic of melanoma mortality had evolved similarly in different populations and whether there were any divergent trends that might increase our understanding. Instead of using all available data, we focused on countries with a minimum time series of 30 years and a minimum of 100 deaths annually in at least one sex from melanoma. We first inspected sex-specific age-standardized mortality rates and then performed age-period-cohort modelling. We found that the increase in mortality observed after 1950 was more pronounced in the age group 60–79. Statistical modelling showed a general increase in mortality rates in generations born after the turn of the century. Downturns in mortality, essentially in women and starting with generations born just before World War II, were found in Australia (where the earliest decreases were noted), the Nordic countries and the USA. Small decreases in rates in more recent generations were found in the UK and Canada. However, in France, Italy and Czechoslovakia, mortality rates were seen to be still increasing in recent cohorts. Our analysis suggests that populations are at different places on the melanoma mortality epidemic curve. The three trend patterns we observed are in agreement with time differences between populations with respect to the promotion of sun protection and the surveillance of pigmented skin lesions. © 2000 Cancer Research Campaig

Species identification by experts and non-experts: comparing images from field guides

Accurate species identification is fundamental when recording ecological data. However, the ability to correctly identify organisms visually is rarely questioned. We investigated how experts and non-experts compared in the identification of bumblebees, a group of insects of considerable conservation concern. Experts and non-experts were asked whether two concurrent bumblebee images depicted the same or two different species. Overall accuracy was below 60% and comparable for experts and non-experts. However, experts were more consistent in their answers when the same images were repeated, and more cautious in committing to a definitive answer. Our findings demonstrate the difficulty of correctly identifying bumblebees using images from field guides. Such error rates need to be accounted for when interpreting species data, whether or not they have been collected by experts. We suggest that investigation of how experts and non-experts make observations should be incorporated into study design, and could be used to improve training in species identification

Socio-demographic, behavioural and cognitive correlates of work-related sitting time in German men and women

Background: Sitting time is ubiquitous for most adults in developed countries and is most prevalent in three domains: in the workplace, during transport and during leisure time. The correlates of prolonged sitting time in workplace settings are not well understood. Therefore, the aim of this study was to examine the gender-specific associations between the socio-demographic, behavioural and cognitive correlates of work-related sitting time. Methods: A cross-sectional sample of working German adults (n = 1515; 747 men; 43.5 ± 11.0 years) completed questionnaires regarding domain-specific sitting times and physical activity (PA) and answered statements concerning beliefs about sitting. To identify gender-specific correlates of work-related sitting time, we used a series of linear regressions. Results The overall median was 2 hours of work-related sitting time/day. Regression analyses showed for men (β = -.43) and for women (β = -.32) that work-related PA was negatively associated with work-related sitting time, but leisure-related PA was not a significant correlate. For women only, transport-related PA (β = -.07) was a negative correlate of work-related sitting time, suggesting increased sitting times during work with decreased PA in transport. Education and income levels were positively associated, and in women only, age (β = -.14) had a negative correlation with work-related sitting time. For both genders, TV-related sitting time was negatively associated with work-related sitting time. The only association with cognitive correlates was found in men for the belief ‘Sitting for long periods does not matter to me’ (β = .10) expressing a more positive attitude towards sitting with increasing sitting durations. Conclusions: The present findings show that in particular, higher educated men and women as well as young women are high-risk groups to target for reducing prolonged work-related sitting time. In addition, our findings propose considering increasing transport-related PA, especially in women, as well as promoting recreation-related PA in conjunction with efforts to reduce long work-related sitting times

Rationale and design of BISTRO: a randomized controlled trial to determine whether bioimpedance spectroscopy guided fluid management maintains residual kidney function in incident haemodialysis patients

Background: Preserved residual kidney function (RKF) and normal fluid status are associated with better patient outcomes in incident haemodialysis patients. The objective of this trial is to determine whether using bioimpedance technology in prescribing the optimal post-dialysis weight can reduce the rate of decline of RKF and potentially improve patient outcomes. Methods/Design: 516 patients commencing haemodialysis, aged >18 with RKF of > 3 ml/min/1.73 m2 or a urine volume >500 ml per day or per the shorter inter-dialytic period will be consented and enrolled into a pragmatic, open label, randomized controlled trial. The intervention is incorporation of bioimpedance spectroscopy (BI) determination of normally hydrated weight to set a post-dialysis target weight that limits volume depletion, compared to current standard practice. Clinicians and participants will be blinded to BI measures in the control group and a standardized record capturing management of fluid status will be used in all participants. Primary outcome is preservation of residual kidney function assessed as time to anuria (≤100 ml/day or ≤200 ml urine volume in the short inter-dialytic period). A sample size of 516 was based upon a cumulative incidence of 30% anuria in the control group and 20% in the treatment group and 11% competing risks (death, transplantation) over 10 months, with up to 2 years follow-up. Secondary outcomes include rate of decline in small solute clearance, significant adverse events, hospitalization, loss of vascular access, cardiovascular events and interventions, dialysis efficacy and safety, dialysis-related symptoms and quality of life. Economic evaluation will be carried out to determine the cost-effectiveness of the intervention. Analyses will be adjusted for patient characteristics and dialysis unit practice patterns relevant to fluid management. Discussion: This trial will establish the added value of undertaking BI measures to support clinical management of fluid status and establish the relationship between fluid status and preservation of residual kidney function in incident haemodialysis patients. Trial registration: ISCCTN Number: 11342007, completed 26/04/2016; NIHR Portfolio number: CPMS31766; Sponsor: Keele University Keywords: Fluid status, Body composition, Residual kidney function, Haemodialysis, Bioimpedance, Fluid management, Health economic