71 research outputs found

    Scalable and Sustainable: How to Build Anticipatory Capacity into Social Protection Systems

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    Climate shocks contribute to a significant share of the humanitarian burden, and are a key factor in increasing poverty and food insecurity. Social protection is increasingly recognised as an instrument to help build resilience to climate risks through long-term, large-scale national systems. However, most experiences to date have focused on social protection’s role for chronic needs, or at best, shock-response, rather than on anticipation and prevention. This article argues that social protection can support more effective resilience building at scale by integrating early action and preparedness. We propose a concrete solution, namely linking a Forecast-based Financing mechanism to a social protection system to enable anticipatory actions based on forecast triggers and guaranteed funding ahead of a shock. Such a system may enhance scalability, timeliness, predictability and adequacy of social protection benefits. Key considerations for success of this emerging approach include sound analysis of forecast, risks, cost and benefits, and ring-fenced funding

    Perceptions on diversity in cardiology: A survey of cardiology fellowship training program directors

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    Background The lack of diversity in the cardiovascular physician workforce is thought to be an important driver of racial and sex disparities in cardiac care. Cardiology fellowship program directors play a critical role in shaping the cardiology workforce. Methods and Results To assess program directors\u27 perceptions about diversity and barriers to enhancing diversity, the authors conducted a survey of 513 fellowship program directors or associate directors from 193 unique adult cardiology fellowship training programs. The response rate was 21% of all individuals (110/513) representing 57% of US general adult cardiology training programs (110/193). While 69% of respondents endorsed the belief that diversity is a driver of excellence in health care, only 26% could quote 1 to 2 references to support this statement. Sixty-three percent of respondents agreed that our program is diverse already so diversity does not need to be increased. Only 6% of respondents listed diversity as a top 3 priority when creating the cardiovascular fellowship rank list. Conclusions These findings suggest that while program directors generally believe that diversity enhances quality, they are less familiar with the literature that supports that contention and they may not share a unified definition of diversity. This may result in diversity enhancement having a low priority. The authors propose several strategies to engage fellowship training program directors in efforts to diversify cardiology fellowship training programs

    Identification of PDL-1 as a novel biomarker of sensitizer exposure in dendritic-like cells

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    The development of novel in vitro methods to assess risks of allergic sensitization are essential in reducing animal testing whilst maintaining consumer safety. The main research objectives of this study were to identify novel biomarkers to assess the sensitization predictability of chemicals. Phenotypic and cytokine responses of moDCs and MUTZ-3 cells were investigated following application of contact sensitizers; dinitrochlorobenzene (DNCB), cinnamaldehyde (Cin), eugenol (E), isoeugenol (IE), P-phenylenediamine (PPD) and non-sensitizers; salicyclic acid (SA) and sodium lauryl sulphate (SLS). CD86 was up-regulated on MUTZ-3 cells in response to DNCB, Cin and PPD, however, moDCs only modulated CD86 in response to DNCB and E. PDL-1 (Programmed death receptor ligand-1) proved a promising sensitization biomarker in MUTZ-3 cells where up-regulation occurred in response to DNCB, Cin, IE and PPD. Additionally, moDC-expressed PDL-1 was modulated in response to Cin, IE and E thus demonstrating improved sensitizer predictability when compared with CD86. MCP-1 and RANTES were identified as biomarkers of DNCB exposure but MCP-1 did not show any change in expression above controls for the other sensitizers investigated. However, RANTES was increased in MUTZ-3 cells by both DNCB and Cin. Our findings highlight novel biomarkers which, in MUTZ-3 cells, could be taken forward within a multiple biomarker in vitro assay ensuring strong and reliable predictability. © 2010 Elsevier Ltd

    Climate change increased extreme monsoon rainfall, flooding highly vulnerable communities in Pakistan

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    As a direct consequence of extreme monsoon rainfall throughout the summer 2022 season Pakistan experienced the worst flooding in its history. We employ a probabilistic event attribution methodology as well as a detailed assessment of the dynamics to understand the role of climate change in this event. Many of the available state-of-the-art climate models struggle to simulate these rainfall characteristics. Those that pass our evaluation test generally show a much smaller change in likelihood and intensity of extreme rainfall than the trend we found in the observations. This discrepancy suggests that long-term variability, or processes that our evaluation may not capture, can play an important role, rendering it infeasible to quantify the overall role of human-induced climate change. However, the majority of models and observations we have analysed show that intense rainfall has become heavier as Pakistan has warmed. Some of these models suggest climate change could have increased the rainfall intensity up to 50%. The devastating impacts were also driven by the proximity of human settlements, infrastructure (homes, buildings, bridges), and agricultural land to flood plains, inadequate infrastructure, limited ex-ante risk reduction capacity, an outdated river management system, underlying vulnerabilities driven by high poverty rates and socioeconomic factors (e.g. gender, age, income, and education), and ongoing political and economic instability. Both current conditions and the potential further increase in extreme peaks in rainfall over Pakistan in light of anthropogenic climate change, highlight the urgent need to reduce vulnerability to extreme weather in Pakistan

    Detecting the human fingerprint in the summer 2022 western-central European soil drought

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    In the 2022 summer, western-central Europe and several other regions in the northern extratropics experienced substantial soil moisture deficits in the wake of precipitation shortages and elevated temperatures. Much of Europe has not witnessed a more severe soil drought since at least the mid-20th century, raising the question whether this is a manifestation of our warming climate. Here, we employ a well-established statistical approach to attribute the low 2022 summer soil moisture to human-induced climate change using observation-driven soil moisture estimates and climate models. We find that in western-central Europe, a June-August root zone soil moisture drought such as in 2022 is expected to occur once in 20 years in the present climate but would have occurred only about once per century during preindustrial times. The entire northern extratropics show an even stronger global warming imprint with a 20-fold soil drought probability increase or higher, but we note that the underlying uncertainty is large. Reasons are manifold but include the lack of direct soil moisture observations at the required spatiotemporal scales, the limitations of remotely sensed estimates, and the resulting need to simulate soil moisture with land surface models driven by meteorological data. Nevertheless, observation-based products indicate long-term declining summer soil moisture for both regions, and this tendency is likely fueled by regional warming, while no clear trends emerge for precipitation. Finally, our climate model analysis suggests that under 2C global warming, 2022-like soil drought conditions would become twice as likely for western-central Europe compared to today and would take place nearly every year across the northern extratropics.</p
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