The Caspian Sea level forced by the atmospheric circulation, as observed and modelled

The Caspian Sea Level (CSL) has experienced large fluctuations with wide-reaching impacts on the population on the coastal regions and on the economy. The CSL variability is dominated by the variability of precipitation over the Volga River basin. The precipitation during summer plays a dominant role and can explain the two major events that happened in the 1930s (drop) and after 1977 (rise). Impacts are expected from global warming due to enhanced greenhouse gas concentrations; especially the precipitation over the Volga River basin is expected to increase. It is, however, compensated more or less by increased evaporation over the Caspian Sea (CS) itself. It is shown that the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (Hamburg) models are able to simulate most processes relevant for the CSL variability quite realistically, i.e., within the uncertainty of observational data. The simulations suggest a slight increase of the CSL in the 21st century; but due to a large variability of precipitation over the Volga River basin a statement concerning the future development of the CSL cannot be made with confidence at the moment. r 2007 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved

Impacts from SSTs, ENSO, stratospheric QBO and global warming on Hurricanes over the North Atlantic

Processes affecting hurricane development over the North Atlantic like the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are discussed. Global coupled climate model simulations cannot answer directly the question on enhancement of hurricane activities (or its absence) under increased greenhouse gas concentrations because of their too coarse resolution. Therefore large-scale quantities that affect hurricane formation are investigated in a future warmer climate. More frequent or more intense hurricanes are expected from an increase in the local SST, from more latent heat flux from the ocean to the atmosphere, from more westerly winds in the tropical stratosphere that reduces the occurrence of strong easterly phases of the QBO and from a more moist-unstable stratification of the atmosphere. However, a stronger vertical wind shear similar to the difference between El Niño and La Niña events suggests fewer hurricanes in the northern Atlantic. Also a more dry-stable atmosphere would lead to fewer hurricanes. Of the various forcing factors, the impact of wind shear appears to be more decisive, i.e. with a strong wind shear over the tropical Atlantic like during El Niño events strong hurricanes hardly happen while impacts from SSTs over the tropical Atlantic are less significant. As there are some factors favouring an increase of hurricane activity in a future climate and others favouring a decrease, it remains so far difficult to estimate their joint effect and to suggest any decisive trend. The area of hurricane development is limited among others by an increase of vertical wind shear towards the north and south from a minimum at 5-10˚N. This wind shear pattern does not change in a future climate and has the potential of superseding impacts from ocean warming. A need for very long time series for obtaining robust results becomes obvious. Here at least 50 years of data were used

Vegetation context and climatic limits of the Early Pleistocene hominin dispersal in Europe

The vegetation and the climatic context in which the first hominins entered and dispersed in Europe during the Early Pleistocene are reconstructed, using literature review and a new climatic simulation. Both in situ fauna and in situ pollen at the twelve early hominin sites under consideration indicate the occurrence of open landscapes: grasslands or forested steppes. The presence of ancient hominins (Homo of the erectus group) in Europe is only possible at the transition from glacial to interglacial periods, the full glacial being too cold for them and the transition interglacial to glacial too forested. Glacial–interglacial cycles forced by obliquity showed paralleled vegetation successions, which repeated c. 42 times during the course of the Early Pleistocene (2.58–0.78 Ma), providing 42 narrow windows of opportunity for hominins to disperse into Europe. The climatic conditions of this Early Pleistocene vegetation at glacial-interglacial transitions are compared with a climatic simulation for 9 ka ago without ice sheet, as this time period is so far the best analogue available. The climate at the beginning of the present interglacial displayed a stronger seasonality than now. Forest cover would not have been hampered though, clearly indicating that other factors linked to refugial location and soils leave this period relatively free of forests. Similar situations with an offset between climate and vegetation at the beginning of interglacials repeated themselves throughout the Quaternary and benefitted the early hominins when colonising Europe. The duration of this open phase of vegetation at the glacial–interglacial transition was long enough to allow colonisation from the Levant to the Atlantic. The twelve sites fall within rather narrow ranges of summer precipitation and temperature of the coldest month, suggesting the hominins had only a very low tolerance to climate variability

A comparison of climate simulations for the last glacial maximum with three different versions of the ECHAM model and implications for summer-green tree refugia

This is an open access article. The official link can be found below.Model simulations of the last glacial maximum (21 ± 2 ka) with the ECHAM3 T42 atmosphere-only, ECHAM5-MPIOM T31 atmosphere-ocean coupled and ECHAM5 T106 atmosphere-only models are compared. The topography, land-sea mask and glacier distribution for the ECHAM5 simulations were taken from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase II (PMIP2) data set while for ECHAM3 they were taken from PMIP1. The ECHAM5-MPIOM T31 model produced its own sea surface temperatures (SST) while the ECHAM5 T106 simulations were forced at the boundaries by this coupled model SSTs corrected from their present-day biases and the ECHAM3 T42 model was forced with prescribed SSTs provided by Climate/Long-Range Investigation, Mapping, and Prediction project (CLIMAP). The SSTs in the ECHAM5-MPIOM simulation for the last glacial maximum (LGM) were much warmer in the northern Atlantic than those suggested by CLIMAP or Overview of Glacial Atlantic Ocean Mapping (GLAMAP) while the SSTs were cooler everywhere else. This had a clear effect on the temperatures over Europe, warmer for winters in western Europe and cooler for eastern Europe than the simulation with CLIMAP SSTs. Considerable differences in the general circulation patterns were found in the different simulations. A ridge over western Europe for the present climate during winter in the 500 hPa height field remains in both ECHAM5 simulations for the LGM, more so in the T106 version, while the ECHAM3 CLIMAP-SST simulation provided a trough which is consistent with cooler temperatures over western Europe. The zonal wind between 30° W and 10° E shows a southward shift of the polar and subtropical jets in the simulations for the LGM, least obvious in the ECHAM5 T31 one, and an extremely strong polar jet for the ECHAM3 CLIMAP-SST run. The latter can probably be assigned to the much stronger north-south gradient in the CLIMAP SSTs. The southward shift of the polar jet during the LGM is supported by palaeo-data. Cyclone tracks in winter represented by high precipitation are characterised over Europe for the present by a main branch from the British Isles to Norway and a secondary branch towards the Mediterranean Sea, observed and simulated. For the LGM the different models show very different solutions: the ECHAM3 CLIMAP-SST simulation shows just one track going eastward from the British Isles into central Europe, while the ECHAM5 T106 simulation still has two branches but during the LGM the main one goes to the Mediterranean Sea, with enhanced precipitation in the Levant. This agrees with an observed high stand of the Dead Sea during the LGM. For summer the ECHAM5 T106 simulation provides much more precipitation for the present over Europe than the other simulations, thus agreeing with estimates by the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). Also during the LGM this model makes Europe less arid than the other simulations. In many respects the ECHAM5 T106 simulation for the present is more realistic than the ECHAM5 T31 coupled simulation and the older ECHAM3 T42 simulation, when comparing them with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis or the GPCP precipitation data. For validating the model data for the LGM, pollen, wood and charcoal analyses were compared with possible summer-green tree growth from model estimates using summer precipitation, minimum winter temperatures and growing degree days (above 5 °C). The ECHAM5 T106 simulation suggests for more sites with findings of palaeo-data, likely tree growth during the LGM than the other simulations, especially over western Europe. The clear message especially from the ECHAM5 T106 simulation is that warm-loving summer-green trees could have survived mainly in Spain but also in Greece in agreement with findings of pollen or charcoal. Southern Italy is also suggested but this could not be validated because of absence of palaeo-data. Previous climate simulations of the LGM have suggested less cold and more humid climate than that reconstructed from pollen findings. Our model results do agree more or less with those of other models but we do not find a contradiction with palaeo-data because we use the pollen data directly without an intermediate reconstruction of temperatures and precipitation from the pollen spectra

Impact of the European Russia drought in 2010 on the Caspian Sea level

This article has been made available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund - Copyright @ 2011 Arpe et al.The hydrological budgets of the Volga basin (VB) and the Caspian Sea (CS) have been analysed. The components of the water balance for the CS were calculated for the period 1993 to 2010 with emphasis on summer 2010 when a severe drought developed over European Russia. A drop in precipitation over the VB in July 2010 occurs simultaneously with a decrease in evaporation for the same area, an increase of evaporation over the CS itself and a drop of the Caspian Sea level (CSL). The drop in the precipitation over the VB cannot lead to an instantaneous drop of the CSL because the precipitated water needs some months to reach the CS. The delay is estimated here to be 1 to 3 months for excessive precipitation in summer, longer for deficient precipitation and for winter cases. However, the evaporation over the CS itself is considered to be responsible for a simultaneous drop of the CSL from July to September 2010. The impact on the CSL from the precipitation deficit over the VB occurs in the months following the drought. The water deficit from July to September 2010 calculated from the anomalous precipitation minus evaporation over the VB would decrease the CSL by 22 cm, of which only 2 cm had been observed until the end of September (observed Volga River discharge anomaly). So the remaining drop of 20 cm can be expected in the months to follow if no other anomalies happen. In previous studies the precipitation over the VB has been identified as the main cause for CSL changes, but here from a 10 cm drop from beginning of July to end of September, 6 cm can be directly assigned to the enhanced evaporation over the CS itself and 2 cm due to reduced precipitation over the CS. Further periods with strong changes of the CSL are also investigated, which provide some estimates concerning the accuracy of the analysis data. The investigation was possible due to the new ECMWF interim reanalysis data which are used to provide data also for sensitive quantities like surface evaporation and precipitation. The comparison with independent data and the consistency between such data for calculating the water budget over the CS gives a high confidence in the quality of the data used. This investigation provides some scope for making forecasts of the CSL few months ahead to allow for mitigating societal impacts.This article is a contribution to the European project Marie Curie, CLIMSEAS – PIRSES-GA-2009-247512: “Climate Change and Inland Seas: Phenomena, 20 Feedback and Uncertainties. The Physical Science Basis”

Prediction of the Caspian Sea level using ECMWF seasonal forecasts and reanalysis

This article is made available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits any use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author(s) and the source are credited.The hydrological budget of the Caspian Sea (CS) is investigated using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts interim reanalysis (ERAi) and seasonal forecast (FCST) data with the aim of predicting the Caspian Sea Level (CSL) some months ahead. Precipitation and evaporation are used. After precipitation events over the Volga River, the discharge (Volga River discharge (VRD)) follows with delays, which are parameterized. The components of the water budget from ERAi and FCSTs are integrated to obtain time series of the CSL. Observations of the CSL and the VRD are used for comparison and tuning. The quality of ERAi data is sufficiently good to calculate the time variability of the CSL with a satisfactory accuracy. Already the storage of water within the Volga Basin allows forecasts of the CSL a few months ahead, and using the FCSTs of precipitation improves the CSL forecasts. The evaporation in the seasonal forecasts is deficient due to unrealistic sea surface temperatures over the CS. Impacts of different water budget terms on the CSL variability are shown by a variety of validation tools. The importance of precipitation anomalies over the catchment of the Volga River is confirmed, but also impacts from the two southern rivers (Sefidrud and Kura River) and the evaporation over the CS become obvious for some periods. When pushing the FCSTs beyond the limits of the seasonal FCSTs to 1 year, considerable forecast skill can still be found. Validating only FCSTs by the present approach, which show the same trend as one based on a statistical method, significantly enhances the skill scores

River inflow and salinity changes in the Caspian Sea during the last 5500 years

Pollen, spores and dinoflagellate cysts have been analysed on three sediment cores (1.8–1.4 m-long) taken from the south and middle basins of the Caspian Sea. A chronology available for one of the cores is based on calibrated radiocarbon dates (ca 5.5–0.8 cal. ka BP). The pollen and spores assemblages indicate fluctuations between steppe and desert. In addition there are some outstanding zones with a bias introduced by strong river inflow. The dinocyst assemblages change between slightly brackish (abundance of Pyxidinopsis psilata and Spiniferites cruciformis) and more brackish (dominance of Impagidinium caspienense) conditions. During the second part of the Holocene, important flow modifications of the Uzboy River and the Volga River as well as salinity changes of the Caspian Sea, causing sea-level fluctuations, have been reconstructed. A major change is suggested at ca 4 cal. ka BP with the end of a high level phase in the south basin. Amongst other hypotheses, this could be caused by the end of a late and abundant flow of the Uzboy River (now defunct), carrying to the Caspian Sea either meltwater from higher latitudes or water from the Amu-Daria. A similar, later clear phase of water inflow has also been observed from 2.1 to 1.7 cal. ka BP in the south basin and probably also in the north of the middle basin

The effects of sampling frequency on the climate statistics of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast General Circulation Model

The effects of sampling frequency on the first- and second-moment statistics of selected European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model variables are investigated in a simulation of ''perpetual July'' with a diurnal cycle included and with surface and atmospheric fields saved at hourly intervals. The shortest characteristic time scales (as determined by the e-folding time of lagged autocorrelation functions) are those of ground heat fluxes and temperatures, precipitation and runoff, convective processes, cloud properties, and atmospheric vertical motion, while the longest time scales are exhibited by soil temperature and moisture, surface pressure, and atmospheric specific humidity, temperature, and wind. The time scales of surface heat and momentum fluxes and of convective processes are substantially shorter over land than over oceans. An appropriate sampling frequency for each model variable is obtained by comparing the estimates of first- and second-moment statistics determined at intervals ranging from 2 to 24 hours with the ''best'' estimates obtained from hourly sampling. Relatively accurate estimation of first- and second-moment climate statistics (10% errors in means, 20% errors in variances) can be achieved by sampling a model variable at intervals that usually are longer than the bandwidth of its time series but that often are shorter than its characteristic time scale. For the surface variables, sampling at intervals that are nonintegral divisors of a 24-hour day yields relatively more accurate time-mean statistics because of a reduction in errors associated with aliasing of the diurnal cycle and higher-frequency harmonics. The superior estimates of first-moment statistics are accompanied by inferior estimates of the variance of the daily means due to the presence of systematic biases, but these probably can be avoided by defining a different measure of low-frequency variability. Estimates of the intradiurnal variance of accumulated precipitation and surface runoff also are strongly impacted by the length of the storage interval. In light of these results, several alternative strategies for storage of the EMWF model variables are recommended

Eavaluation of the hydrological cycle in the ECHAM5 model

This study investigates the impact of model resolution on the hydrological cycle in a suite of model simulations using a new version of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM). Special attention is paid to the evaluation of precipitation on the regional scale by comparing model simulations with observational data in a number of catchments representing the major river systems on the earth in different climate zones. It is found that an increased vertical resolution, from 19 to 31 atmospheric layers, has a beneficial effect on simulated precipitation with respect to both the annual mean and the annual cycle. On the other hand, the influence of increased horizontal resolution, from T63 to T106, is comparatively small. Most of the improvements at higher vertical resolution, on the scale of a catchment, are due to large-scale moisture transport, whereas the impact of local water recycling through evapotranspiration is somewhat smaller. At high horizontal and vertical resolution (T106L31) the model captures most features of the observed hydrological cycle over land, and also the local and remote precipitation response to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. Major deficiencies are the overestimation of precipitation over the oceans, especially at higher vertical resolution, along steep mountain slopes and during the Asian summer monsoon season, whereas a dry bias exists over Australia. In addition, the model fails to reproduce the observed precipitation response to ENSO variability in the Indian Ocean and Africa. This might be related to missing coupled air–sea feedbacks in an AGCM forced with observed sea surface temperatures