Probabilistic floodplain hazard mapping: managing uncertainty by using a bivariate approach for flood frequency analysis

Floods are a global problem and are considered the most frequent natural disaster world-wide. Many studies show that the severity and frequency of floods have increased in recent years and underline the difficulty to separate the effects of natural climatic changes and human influences as land management practices, urbanization etc. Flood risk analysis and assessment is required to provide information on current or future flood hazard and risks in order to accomplish flood risk mitigation, to propose, evaluate and select measures to reduce it. Both components of risk can be mapped individually and are affected by multiple uncertainties as well as the joint estimate of flood risk. Major sources of uncertainty include statistical analysis of extremes events, definition of hydrological input, channel and floodplain topography representation, the choice of effective hydraulic roughness coefficients. The classical procedure to estimate flood discharge for a chosen probability of exceedance is to deal with a rainfallrunoff model associating to risk the same return period of original rainfall, in accordance with the iso-frequency criterion. Alternatively, a flood frequency analysis to a given record of discharge data is applied, but again the same probability is associated to flood discharges and respective risk. Moreover, since flood peaks and corresponding flood volumes are variables of the same phenomenon, they should be, directly, correlated and, consequently, multivariate statistical analyses must be applied. This study presents an innovative approach to obtain flood hazard maps where hydrological input (synthetic flood design event) to a 2D hydraulic model has been defined by generating flood peak discharges and volumes from: a) a classical univariate approach, b) a bivariate statistical analysis, through the use of copulas. The univariate approach considers flood hydrographs generation by an indirect approach (rainfall-runoff transformation using input rainfall hydrographs derived from IDF curves) and a direct approach (statistical inference on measured flood peaks). In the bivariate approach synthetic hydrographs were generated by means two different approaches: an indirect one, where rainfall were generated by a stochastic bivariate rainfall generator to be entered a distributed conceptual rainfall-runoff model that consisted of a soil moisture routine and a flow routing routine; and a direct one, where stochastic generation of flood peaks and flow volumes have been obtained via copulas, which are capable to describe and model the correlation between these two variables. Finally, to highlight the advantages of the presented approach, probabilistic flood hazard maps (including uncertainty) derived by bivariate models are compared to maps from univariate analysis. The procedure is applied to a real case study located in the southern part of Sicily, Italy, where flood hazard and risk maps have been obtained and compared

Effects of Forest Fires on Flood Frequency Curves in a Mediterranean Catchment/Effets d'incendies de for�t sur les courbes de fr�quence de crue dans un bassin versant M�diterran�en

The effect of land-use change on the flood frequency curve (FFC) in a natural catchment is analysed. To achieve this, a simple methodology for the derivation of FFCs in land-use change scenarios is proposed. The adopted methodology, using a stochastic model in Monte Carlo simulation of FFCs, was found to provide a useful framework for detecting changes in flood magnitudes in both pre- and post-fire conditions. In particular, the importance of the antecedent soil moisture condition in the determination of the flood frequency distribution was analysed. The analysis of FFCs for pre- and post-fire conditions shows an increase in the average value of Curve Number and a decrease in the catchment time lag. The derivation of FFCs shows a clear increase in flood quantiles. For the post-fire conditions, the FFC exhibits higher quantiles of the peak discharges showing a reduction in frequency of occurrence. This variation is more significant for low-return period quantiles than for high-return period quantiles. The results of the catchment studies reported here support the hypothesis that the hydrological response of the watershed changes as a result of fire, especially during the first years following a fire event

Influence of storm drain inlet locations on urban pluvial flooding hazard at local scale

The assessment of the impact of surface drainage conditions and the related effect on urban flooding is the general aim of the present research study. Aim of the work presented here is to assess the impact of surface drainage conditions and the related effect on urban flooding. The main objective is to analyze the surface drainage efficiency by evaluating the influence of storm drain inlet location on pluvial flooding. In this study the FLURB-2D propagation model has been used, a two-dimensional inertial model based on the Saint Venant equations and it was, originally, developed with a different purpose. This study focuses on the impact of surface drainage system, in terms of positioning, number, on pluvial flood hazard, actually, four different hypothetical scenarios for the location of the drain inlets were considered. The methodological approach presented in this study is applied in a real case study in the town of Messina (Italy) The area is, entirely, densely urbanized, with streets and blocks with limited pervious parts. The drainage system is mainly separated from the sewer system and there is no stormwater drainage system

Quantitative plant taphonomy: the cosmopolitan Mesozoic fern Weichselia reticulata as a case study

A quantitative approach to plant taphonomy focusing on preservation type and fragment size is tested by comparing 3338 Weichselia reticulata fragments from 25 Lower Cretaceous localities of different ages and depositional environments. Moreover, palaeobiological insights are also obtained from the taphonomic analyses. In the case of the specimens of Weichselia reticulata included in this work, charred remains are the most frequent preservation type, and are the smallest and most homogeneous in size, probably due to the fragmentation of the fronds while burning and to the fact that burnt fragments are more fragile and break easily during the initial abrasion and attrition produced by transport. The size of charred fragments varies depending on the depositional environment, suggesting that biostratinomic processes, and not fire temperature, are the main cause for size differences, and providing valuable insight into the distance the remains might have travelled from production to final deposition. The taphonomic analysis suggests that Weichselia reticulata is allochthonous in all the localities analysed, and that its habitat would have been prone to fire and not far from freshwater systems. This case study shows promising results that can be implemented on different plant groups and chronostratigraphic ages, allowing for the proposal of a taphonomic modelWe would like to thank to the support of three grants awarded to CB-M by the SYNTHESYS Project http:// www.synthesys.info/ financed by the European Community Research Infrastructure Action under the FP7 Integrating Activities Program: BE-TAF-6350, FR-TAF-6323, GB-TAF6933. CB-M is supported by a Margarita Salas CA1/RSUE/2021–00703 scholarship from the Universidad Autonoma de Madrid and Ministerio de Universi- dades de Espana. This work is part of the project PID2019- 105546GB-I00 of the Ministerio de Ciencia e Inovación de Españ

Estilos de crianza familiar y violencia escolar en adolescentes de Lima Norte

In order to determine the relationship between family parenting styles and levels of school violence, this study was carried out among adolescents between 12 and 18 years of age living in various districts of northern Lima, the sample consisted of 300 participants of both sexes. The study of applied type and under the non-experimental cross sectional design with descriptive - explanatory approach, is carried out using 2 instruments; the questionnaire of family parenting styles (ECF-29) Estrada et al. (2017) and the school violence scale of Emler and Reicher (1995) and adapted by Estévez et al. (2005). The results showed that there is significant association (p=.000) between family parenting styles and levels of school violence in adolescents. They showed greater school violence in the group with authoritarian and overprotective family upbringing. On the other hand, the authoritarian parenting style is directly related to school violence, as is the case with the indulgent style, but not with the democratic parenting style.Con la finalidad de determinar la relación entre los estilos de crianza familiar y los niveles de violencia escolar, se lleva a cabo este estudio en adolescentes de 12 a 18 años que viven en los diversos distritos de Lima Norte, la muestra no probabilística estuvo conformada por 300 participantes de ambos sexos. El estudio de tipo aplicado y bajo el diseño no experimental de corte transversal con enfoque descriptivo – explicativo, se lleva a cabo empleando 2 instrumentos; el cuestionario de estilos de crianza familiar (ECF-29) Estrada et al. (2017) y la escala de violencia escolar de Emler y Reicher (1995) y adaptada por Estévez et al. (2005). Los resultados demostraron que existe asociación significativa (p=,000) entre los estilos de crianza familiar y los niveles de violencia escolar en los adolescentes. Evidenciando mayor violencia escolar en el grupo procedente de crianza familiar autoritaria y sobreprotectora. Por otro lado, el estilo de crianza autoritario se relaciona de forma directa con la violencia escolar, sucede lo mismo con el estilo indulgente, no así con el estilo de crianza familiar democrático

Control de inventario y su incidencia en la liquidez de la empresa TRANSPORTES JHERSY SAC, Lima, Ate periodo 2020

La presente investigación titulada “Control de inventario y su incidencia en la liquidez de la empresa TRANSPORTES JHERSY SAC, Lima, Ate periodo 2020”, tuvo como objetivo “determinar la relación que existe entre el control de inventarios y la liquidez en la empresa mencionada”, este proceso permite control adecuado de recursos en cualquier empresa, considerando a las materias primas o insumos, productos auxiliares destinados para la elaboración de un producto, esta gestión y control de inventarios son administrados mediante políticas y procedimientos establecidos que se relacionan con los planes de toda organización. La investigación es de tipo aplicada, con un diseño no experimental, transversal, descriptivo, correlacional, aplicando un método hipotético deductivo; donde se aplicó un instrumento para recolección de datos a una muestra para aplicar un cuestionario a expertos de la empresa TRANSPORTES JHERSY SAC, involucrados con la investigación y sustento en el programa SPSS25 Statistics para medir la correlación y la comprobación de las hipótesis, se determinó una correlación positiva mínima entre ambas variables control de inventarios y la liquidez. Concluyendo, que el control de inventarios se relaciona directamente con liquidez en empresa TRANSPORTES JHERSY SAC en el periodo 2019-2020

Urban landscape and infection risk in free-roaming cats

Altres ajuts: Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) CEECIND/01428/2018. FEDER UID/AMB/50017/2019Despite public concern on the role of free-roaming cats as reservoirs of zoonotic agents, little is known about the influence of urban and peri-urban landscapes on the exposure risk. We evaluated the seroprevalence of three zoonotic agents (Chlamydia felis, Coxiella burnetii and Toxoplasma gondii) in domestic cats (Felis catus). Two hundred and ninety-one free-roaming cats were trapped in Murcia municipality (Southeast Spain), and their sera were tested for specific antibodies against T. gondii using a modified agglutination test (MAT), and for C. felis, C. burnetii and feline immunodeficiency virus (FIV) antibodies with ELISA technique. Pathogen seroprevalence at 95% CI was calculated for each sex and age category (up to and over 12 months) and compared with a chi-squared test. The role of human population density and urban landscape characteristics on the risk of pathogen exposure in the cat population was explored using generalized linear models. Seropositivity against a single pathogen was found in 60% of the cats, while 19% was seropositive for two or three pathogens. Seroprevalence of C. felis was 8% (CI: 5-11), 37% (CI: 31-42) for C. burnetii and 42% (CI: 36-47) for T. gondii. In addition to these three pathogens, FIV seropositivity was low (1%, CI: −0.1 to 2) and adult cats were more likely to be seropositive to C. burnetii than young individuals (OR: 2.3, CI: 1.2-4.2). No sex or age class differences in seroprevalence were observed for the rest of the pathogens. Seropositivity was correlated with water surface areas for C. felis, and not with crop areas. Coxiella burnetii seropositivity was correlated with the percentage of urban areas (continuous with only buildings and discontinuous, that include buildings, parks, and pedestrian and urban green areas), human population size and peri-urban areas with shrubs, and not correlated with other agricultural landscapes (orchards and crop areas). However, the seroprevalence of T. gondii was only associated with agricultural landscapes such as orchards. The detection of hotspot areas of high pathogen exposure risk is the basis for municipal services to implement surveillance and risk factor control campaigns in specific-risk areas, including (a) efficient health management of urban cat colonies by geographical location, population census and health status monitoring of the components of each cat colony, (b) improvement of hygiene and sanitary conditions at the feeding points of the cat colony and (c) free-roaming cat trapping for health monitoring and, in the long term, to know the evolution of the health status of their populations

Plataforma web para turismo receptivo e interno

De acuerdo al World Economic Forum, el Perú ocupa el puesto 51 entre 136 paises con altos índices de competitividad de viajes y turismo. Más de 6´740,247.00 de turistas extranjeros y nacionales realizan turismo en el Perú, según PROMPERU. Además, informa que hay una población de más de 1500 000 de turistas que están deseosos de conocer lugares nuevos. Es por ello que mediante este proyecto se busca aprovechar los recursos y riquezas que tiene el Perú y exponerlo al mundo. De esta manera, la industria del turismo se fortalecerá y contribuirá al PBI del Perú, mediante la creación de empleo y el desarrollo de infraestructura de las zonas turísticas. La tecnología móvil ha hecho posible que los turistas tengan variedad de ofertas sobre distintas zonas turísticas, también la facilidad de reservar y pagar por este medio. De acuerdo a google travel, indica que mas 74% de las personas planean sus viajes por internet y el resto lo hace por una agencia de viajes. Esto se debe a la interaccion entre el ser humano y lo digital. Por ello, el marketing digital y la tecnología móvil son piezas clave para fomentar las zonas turísticas en especial zonas no tan promocionadas pero que tienen riquezas que envidiar. Los paquetes turísticos que ofrece “VIVE VIAJA VAMOS” se caracterizarán por cumplir los estándares de calidad. Esto estará garantizado por la evaluación de Dircetur. La venta en línea de paquetes turísticos de destinos no tradicionales, incluyen desde los pasajes, hospedaje y actividades turísticas. La plataforma web permitirá al operador turístico mostrar las riquezas de sus regiones y que el cliente tenga a su disponibilidad la variedad de ofertas a tiempo real. El desarrollo de estos lugares no tan promocionados fortalecerá más aún la industria del turismo.According to the World Economic Forum, Perú ranks 51 among 136 countries with high index of compettividad travel and tourism. More than 6'740,247.00 of foreign tourists as nationals made tourism in Peru, according to PROMPERU. It also informs that there is a population of more than 1500 000 tourists who are eager to know new places.That is why this project seeks to take advantage of the resources and wealth that Peru has and expose it to the world. In this way, the tourism industry will be increasingly strengthened and contribute to the PBI of Peru, through the creation of employment and the development of infrastructure in tourist areas. Mobile technology has made it possible for tourists to have a variety of offers on different tourist areas, as well as the ease of booking and paying by this means. According to Google Travel, indicates that more 74% of people plan their trips online and the rest do it for a travel agency. This is due to the interaction between the human being and the digital. For this reason, digital marketing and mobile technology are key elements to promote tourist areas in areas not so highly promoted but that have wealth to envy. The tour packages offered by "VIVE VIAJA VAMOS" will be characterized by aquality standards, this will be guaranteed by the evaluation of the Dircetur. The online sale of turistic packages of non-traditional destinations, including from the tickets, lodging and tourist activities. the web platform will allow the tour operator shows the wealth of their regions and services and that the client or tourist has at his/her disposal the variety of offers in real time. The development of these places not so highly promoted will further strengthen the tourism industry.Trabajo de investigació