Assessment of nitrogen oxides and ground-level ozone behavior in a dense air quality station network: Case study in the Lesser Antilles Arc

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Forecast Horizon and Solar Variability Influences on the Performances of Multiscale Hybrid Forecast Model

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Predictive spatio-temporal model for spatially sparse global solar radiation data

International audienceThis paper introduces a new approach for the forecasting of solar radiation series at a located station for very short time scale. We built a multivariate model in using few stations (3 stations) separated with irregular distances from 26 km to 56 km. The proposed model is a spatio temporal vector autoregressive VAR model specifically designed for the analysis of spatially sparse spatio-temporal data. This model differs from classic linear models in using spatial and temporal parameters where the available pre-dictors are the lagged values at each station. A spatial structure of stations is defined by the sequential introduction of predictors in the model. Moreover, an iterative strategy in the process of our model will select the necessary stations removing the uninteresting predictors and also selecting the optimal p-order. We studied the performance of this model. The metric error, the relative root mean squared error (rRMSE), is presented at different short time scales. Moreover, we compared the results of our model to simple and well known persistence model and those found in literature

Preliminary assessment of two spatio-temporal forecasting technics for hourly satellite-derived irradiance in a complex meteorological context

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Assesment of two spatio temporal forecasting technics for hourly satellite derived irradiance for a study case in the Caribbean isalnds

International audienceSolar forecasts are essential for grid-connected solar photovoltaics (PV) as penetration increases. This increase leads to increased grid variability and uncertainty that must be managed by power system operators and/or PV plant owners. Better solar forecasting tools contribute to facilitating this management. This work examines two spatio-temporal approaches for short-term forecasting of global horizontal irradiance using gridded satellite-derived irradiance as experimental support. The first approach is a spatio-temporal vector autoregressive (STVAR) model combined with a statistical process for op-timum selection of input variables. The second is an existing operational cloud motion vector (CMV) model, a deterministic approach. An evaluation of the predictive performance of these models is investigated for a case study area in the Caribbean Islands. This region is characterized by a large diversity of microclimates and land/sea contrasts, creating a challenging solar forecasting context. Using scaled persistence as a reference, we benchmark the performance of the two spatio-temporal models over an extended 220×220 km domain, and for three specific, climatically distinct locations within this domain. We also assess the influence of intra-day solar resource variability on model performance. Exploiting this observation could lead to better forecast performance by harnessing the strengths and minimizing the weaknesses of both models for different conditions/locations. In a subsequent investigation, a blended model CMV/STVAR will be developed, by combining the strengths of a purely physical approach and those of a purely statistical approach. Operationally, such an approach would mesh with operational industry-targeted forecast services that exploit gridded satellite remote sensing resources

Determination of the marine potential energy in the French West Indies for the building of energy converter pilot

International audienceThe French West Indies are composed by the archipelago of GUADELOUPE(61 • W 16 • N) and the island of MARTINIQUE(61 • W 14 • N), and located in the Lesser Antilles Arc. The most part of the whole islands have a volcanic origin. This Islands are not electrically connect, like the other English and Spanish speaker Island. The electrical networks of this island are completely isolated. The needs of electrical energy grow with the development of the air conditioning, the industrial production, the street lighting and the news technologies. To ask to the needs, all the electrical energy are product locally. Actually the most part of the electrical production In the both territory of the French West Indies are with fuel, follow by coal, hydraulic production, wind generator and solar panel. In spite of the lesser dimension of the two territories, the construction and the maintains of electrical network are very expensive, cause by the archipelago situation and the strong variation of the topography. The FWI have two big facades on the east on the Atlantic Ocean and on the West on the Caribbean Sea. This Geographical situation give the island a great advantage on the exploitation of the marine energy resources. The using of marine resources for product electricity seem natural. The prospective work start since 2004 are presented in this work. Two principals goals are determined: to evaluate the real marine energy potential in the zone of the FWI and to define the size of pilots of marine energy converters. The four most potential marine energy of the FWI will present and analyze. A classification of this resource in function of the exploitation possibility in the zone and the geographical repartition of the needs are presented. Our classification give the OTEC, followed by the wave energy, The Offshore Wind Generator and sea current energy. On this classification a particular attention of the conception and the sizing of a pilot for the OTEC and a wave energy converter have be done. The detail of this conception will be present. One of this two converters is in advance applied project, and a large part of it will be present too