Deep Learning to Estimate Biological Age From Chest Radiographs

OBJECTIVES The goal of this study was to assess whether a deep learning estimate of age from a chest radiograph image (CXR-Age) can predict longevity beyond chronological age. BACKGROUND Chronological age is an imperfect measure of longevity. Biological age, a measure of overall health, may improve personalized care. This paper proposes a new way to estimate biological age using a convolutional neural network that takes as input a CXR image and outputs a chest x-ray age (in years) as a measure of long-term mortality risk. METHODS CXR-Age was developed using CXR from 116,035 individuals and validated in 2 held-out testing sets: 1) 75% of the CXR arm of PLCO (Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial) (N = 40,967); and 2) the CXR arm of NLST (National Lung Screening Trial) (N = 5,414). CXR-Age was compared to chronological age and a multivariable regression model of chronological age, risk factors, and radiograph findings to predict all-cause and cardiovascular mortality with a maximum 23 years and 13 years of follow-up, respectively. The primary outcome was observed mortality; results are provided for the testing datasets only. RESULTS In the PLCO testing dataset, a 5-year increase in CXR-Age carried a higher risk of all-cause mortality than a 5-year increase in chronological age (CXR-Age hazard ratio [HR]: 2.26 [95% confidence interval (CI): 2.24 to 2.29] vs. chronological age HR: 1.77 [95% CI: 1.75 to 1.78]; p < 0.001). A similar pattern was found for cardiovascular mortality (CXR-Age cause-specific HR: 2.45 per 5 years [95% CI: 2.34 to 2.56] vs. chronological age HR: 1.82 per 5 years [95% CI: 1.74 to 1.90]). Similar results were seen for both outcomes in the NLST external testing dataset. Adding CXR-Age to the multivariable model resulted in significant improvements for predicting both outcomes in both testing datasets (p < 0.001 for all comparisons). CONCLUSIONS Based on a CXR image, CXR-Age predicted long-term all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. (J Am Coll Cardiol Img 2021;14:2226-2236 ) (c) 2021 by the American College of Cardiology Foundation

Small whole heart volume predicts cardiovascular events in patients with stable chest pain: insights from the PROMISE trial

Objectives The size of the heart may predict major cardiovascular events (MACE) in patients with stable chest pain. We aimed to evaluate the prognostic value of 3D whole heart volume (WHV) derived from non-contrast cardiac computed tomography (CT). Methods Among participants randomized to the CT arm of the Prospective Multicenter Imaging Study for Evaluation of Chest Pain (PROMISE), we used deep learning to extract WHV, defined as the volume of the pericardial sac. We compared the WHV across categories of cardiovascular risk factors and coronary artery disease (CAD) characteristics and determined the association of WHV with MACE (all-cause death, myocardial infarction, unstable angina; median follow-up: 26 months). Results In the 3798 included patients (60.5 +/- 8.2 years; 51.5% women), the WHV was 351.9 +/- 57.6 cm(3)/m(2). We found smaller WHV in no- or non-obstructive CAD, women, people with diabetes, sedentary lifestyle, and metabolic syndrome. Larger WHV was found in obstructive CAD, men, and increased atherosclerosis cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk score (p < 0.05). In a time-to-event analysis, small WHV was associated with over 4.4-fold risk of MACE (HR (per one standard deviation) = 0.221; 95% CI: 0.068-0.721; p = 0.012) independent of ASCVD risk score and CT-derived CAD characteristics. In patients with non-obstructive CAD, but not in those with no- or obstructive CAD, WHV increased the discriminatory capacity of ASCVD and CT-derived CAD characteristics significantly. Conclusions Small WHV may represent a novel imaging marker of MACE in stable chest pain. In particular, WHV may improve risk stratification in patients with non-obstructive CAD, a cohort with an unmet need for better risk stratification

Computed tomography-based radiomics for the differential diagnosis of pneumonitis in stage IV non-small cell lung cancer patients treated with immune checkpoint inhibitors

Introduction: Immunotherapy-induced pneumonitis (IIP) is a serious side-effect which requires accurate diagnosis and management with high-dose corticosteroids. The differ-ential diagnosis between IIP and other types of pneumonitis (OTP) remains challenging due to similar radiological patterns. This study was aimed to develop a prediction model to differentiate IIP from OTP in patients with stage IV non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) who developed pneumonitis during immunotherapy. Methods: Consecutive patients with metastatic NSCLC treated with immunotherapy in six centres in the Netherlands and Belgium from 2017 to 2020 were reviewed and cause-specific pneumonitis events were identified. Seven regions of interest (segmented lungs and sphe-roidal/cubical regions surrounding the inflammation) were examined to extract the most pre-dictive radiomic features from the chest computed tomography images obtained at pneumonitis manifestation. Models were internally tested regarding discrimination, calibra-tion and decisional benefit. To evaluate the clinical application of the models, predicted labels were compared with the separate clinical and radiological judgements. Results: A total of 556 patients were reviewed; 31 patients (5.6%) developed IIP and 41 pa-tients developed OTP (7.4%). The line of immunotherapy was the only predictive factor in the clinical model (2nd versus 1st odds ratio Z 0.08, 95% confidence interval:0.01-0.77). The best radiomic model was achieved using a 75-mm spheroidal region of interest which showed an optimism-corrected area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.83 (95% confidence interval:0.77-0.95) with negative and positive predictive values of 80% and 79%, respectively. Good calibration and net benefits were achieved for the radiomic model across the entire range of probabilities. A correct diagnosis was provided by the radiomic model in 10 out of 12 cases with non-conclusive radiological judgements. Conclusion: Radiomic biomarkers applied to computed tomography imaging may support cli-nicians making the differential diagnosis of pneumonitis in patients with NSCLC receiving immunotherapy, especially when the radiologic assessment is non-conclusive. 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).Pathogenesis and treatment of chronic pulmonary disease

Decoding tumour phenotype by noninvasive imaging using a quantitative radiomics approach

Human cancers exhibit strong phenotypic differences that can be visualized noninvasively by medical imaging. Radiomics refers to the comprehensive quantification of tumour phenotypes by applying a large number of quantitative image features. Here we present a radiomic analysis of 440 features quantifying tumour image intensity, shape and texture, which are extracted from computed tomography data of 1,019 patients with lung or head-and-neck cancer. We find that a large number of radiomic features have prognostic power in independent data sets of lung and head-and-neck cancer patients, many of which were not identified as significant before. Radiogenomics analysis reveals that a prognostic radiomic signature, capturing intratumour heterogeneity, is associated with underlying gene-expression patterns. These data suggest that radiomics identifies a general prognostic phenotype existing in both lung and head-and-neck cancer. This may have a clinical impact as imaging is routinely used in clinical practice, providing an unprecedented opportunity to improve decision-support in cancer treatment at low cost

Prognostic value of deep learning-mediated treatment monitoring in lung cancer patients receiving immunotherapy

BackgroundCheckpoint inhibitors provided sustained clinical benefit to metastatic lung cancer patients. Nonetheless, prognostic markers in metastatic settings are still under research. Imaging offers distinctive advantages, providing whole-body information non-invasively, while routinely available in most clinics. We hypothesized that more prognostic information can be extracted by employing artificial intelligence (AI) for treatment monitoring, superior to 2D tumor growth criteria.MethodsA cohort of 152 stage-IV non-small-cell lung cancer patients (NSCLC) (73 discovery, 79 test, 903CTs), who received nivolumab were retrospectively collected. We trained a neural network to identify morphological changes on chest CT acquired during patients' follow-ups. A classifier was employed to link imaging features learned by the network with overall survival.ResultsOur results showed significant performance in the independent test set to predict 1-year overall survival from the date of image acquisition, with an average area under the curve (AUC) of 0.69 (p < 0.01), up to AUC 0.75 (p < 0.01) in the first 3 to 5 months of treatment, and 0.67 AUC (p = 0.01) for durable clinical benefit (6 months progression-free survival). We found the AI-derived survival score to be independent of clinical, radiological, PDL1, and histopathological factors. Visual analysis of AI-generated prognostic heatmaps revealed relative prognostic importance of morphological nodal changes in the mediastinum, supraclavicular, and hilar regions, lung and bone metastases, as well as pleural effusions, atelectasis, and consolidations.ConclusionsOur results demonstrate that deep learning can quantify tumor- and non-tumor-related morphological changes important for prognostication on serial imaging. Further investigation should focus on the implementation of this technique beyond thoracic imaging.Pathogenesis and treatment of chronic pulmonary disease

The artificial intelligence-based model ANORAK improves histopathological grading of lung adenocarcinoma

The introduction of the International Association for the Study of Lung Cancer grading system has furthered interest in histopathological grading for risk stratification in lung adenocarcinoma. Complex morphology and high intratumoral heterogeneity present challenges to pathologists, prompting the development of artificial intelligence (AI) methods. Here we developed ANORAK (pyrAmid pooliNg crOss stReam Attention networK), encoding multiresolution inputs with an attention mechanism, to delineate growth patterns from hematoxylin and eosin-stained slides. In 1,372 lung adenocarcinomas across four independent cohorts, AI-based grading was prognostic of disease-free survival, and further assisted pathologists by consistently improving prognostication in stage I tumors. Tumors with discrepant patterns between AI and pathologists had notably higher intratumoral heterogeneity. Furthermore, ANORAK facilitates the morphological and spatial assessment of the acinar pattern, capturing acinus variations with pattern transition. Collectively, our AI method enabled the precision quantification and morphology investigation of growth patterns, reflecting intratumoral histological transitions in lung adenocarcinoma

Evolutionary characterization of lung adenocarcinoma morphology in TRACERx

Lung adenocarcinomas (LUADs) display a broad histological spectrum from low-grade lepidic tumors through to mid-grade acinar and papillary and high-grade solid, cribriform and micropapillary tumors. How morphology reflects tumor evolution and disease progression is poorly understood. Whole-exome sequencing data generated from 805 primary tumor regions and 121 paired metastatic samples across 248 LUADs from the TRACERx 421 cohort, together with RNA-sequencing data from 463 primary tumor regions, were integrated with detailed whole-tumor and regional histopathological analysis. Tumors with predominantly high-grade patterns showed increased chromosomal complexity, with higher burden of loss of heterozygosity and subclonal somatic copy number alterations. Individual regions in predominantly high-grade pattern tumors exhibited higher proliferation and lower clonal diversity, potentially reflecting large recent subclonal expansions. Co-occurrence of truncal loss of chromosomes 3p and 3q was enriched in predominantly low-/mid-grade tumors, while purely undifferentiated solid-pattern tumors had a higher frequency of truncal arm or focal 3q gains and SMARCA4 gene alterations compared with mixed-pattern tumors with a solid component, suggesting distinct evolutionary trajectories. Clonal evolution analysis revealed that tumors tend to evolve toward higher-grade patterns. The presence of micropapillary pattern and ‘tumor spread through air spaces’ were associated with intrathoracic recurrence, in contrast to the presence of solid/cribriform patterns, necrosis and preoperative circulating tumor DNA detection, which were associated with extra-thoracic recurrence. These data provide insights into the relationship between LUAD morphology, the underlying evolutionary genomic landscape, and clinical and anatomical relapse risk

The evolution of lung cancer and impact of subclonal selection in TRACERx

Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer-associated mortality worldwide1. Here we analysed 1,644 tumour regions sampled at surgery or during follow-up from the first 421 patients with non-small cell lung cancer prospectively enrolled into the TRACERx study. This project aims to decipher lung cancer evolution and address the primary study endpoint: determining the relationship between intratumour heterogeneity and clinical outcome. In lung adenocarcinoma, mutations in 22 out of 40 common cancer genes were under significant subclonal selection, including classical tumour initiators such as TP53 and KRAS. We defined evolutionary dependencies between drivers, mutational processes and whole genome doubling (WGD) events. Despite patients having a history of smoking, 8% of lung adenocarcinomas lacked evidence of tobacco-induced mutagenesis. These tumours also had similar detection rates for EGFR mutations and for RET, ROS1, ALK and MET oncogenic isoforms compared with tumours in never-smokers, which suggests that they have a similar aetiology and pathogenesis. Large subclonal expansions were associated with positive subclonal selection. Patients with tumours harbouring recent subclonal expansions, on the terminus of a phylogenetic branch, had significantly shorter disease-free survival. Subclonal WGD was detected in 19% of tumours, and 10% of tumours harboured multiple subclonal WGDs in parallel. Subclonal, but not truncal, WGD was associated with shorter disease-free survival. Copy number heterogeneity was associated with extrathoracic relapse within 1 year after surgery. These data demonstrate the importance of clonal expansion, WGD and copy number instability in determining the timing and patterns of relapse in non-small cell lung cancer and provide a comprehensive clinical cancer evolutionary data resource