Time Series Analysis of Nyala Rainfall Using ARIMA Method

This paper presents linear stochastic models known as multiplicative seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model (SARIMA).The model is used to simulate monthly rainfall in Nyala station, Sudan. For the analysis, monthly rainfall data for the years 1971–2010 were used. The seasonality observed in Auto Correlation Function(ACF) and Partial Auto Correlation Function(PACF) plots of monthly rainfall data was removed using first order seasonal differencing prior to the development of the SARIMA model. Interestingly, the SARIMA (0,0,0)x(0,1,1)12 model developed was found to be most suitable for simulating monthly rainfall over Nyala station. This model is considered appropriate to forecast the monthly rainfall to assist decision makers to establish priorities for water demand, storage, distribution and disaster management

Fitting Probability Distributions of Annual Rainfall in Sudan

Annual rainfall data for fourteen rainfall stations in Sudan during the period 1971 to 2010 were analyzed to select the best probability distribution for every station. The rainfall data was obtained from the Sudan Meteorological Authority (SMA). Five distributions were tested, namely Normal, Log normal, Gamma, Weibull and exponential distribution. Three statistical goodness of fit test were used on the basis of the minimum value of test statistic. The best fit probability distribution was selected based on the minimum deviation between observed and estimated values. The normal and gamma distribution were selected as the best fit probability distribution for the annual rainfall in Sudan during the period of the study, respectively

Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019 : a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2019

Background: Rigorous analysis of levels and trends in exposure to leading risk factors and quantification of their effect on human health are important to identify where public health is making progress and in which cases current efforts are inadequate. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a standardised and comprehensive assessment of the magnitude of risk factor exposure, relative risk, and attributable burden of disease. Methods: GBD 2019 estimated attributable mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years of life lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 87 risk factors and combinations of risk factors, at the global level, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories. GBD uses a hierarchical list of risk factors so that specific risk factors (eg, sodium intake), and related aggregates (eg, diet quality), are both evaluated. This method has six analytical steps. (1) We included 560 risk–outcome pairs that met criteria for convincing or probable evidence on the basis of research studies. 12 risk–outcome pairs included in GBD 2017 no longer met inclusion criteria and 47 risk–outcome pairs for risks already included in GBD 2017 were added based on new evidence. (2) Relative risks were estimated as a function of exposure based on published systematic reviews, 81 systematic reviews done for GBD 2019, and meta-regression. (3) Levels of exposure in each age-sex-location-year included in the study were estimated based on all available data sources using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression method, or alternative methods. (4) We determined, from published trials or cohort studies, the level of exposure associated with minimum risk, called the theoretical minimum risk exposure level. (5) Attributable deaths, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs were computed by multiplying population attributable fractions (PAFs) by the relevant outcome quantity for each age-sex-location-year. (6) PAFs and attributable burden for combinations of risk factors were estimated taking into account mediation of different risk factors through other risk factors. Across all six analytical steps, 30 652 distinct data sources were used in the analysis. Uncertainty in each step of the analysis was propagated into the final estimates of attributable burden. Exposure levels for dichotomous, polytomous, and continuous risk factors were summarised with use of the summary exposure value to facilitate comparisons over time, across location, and across risks. Because the entire time series from 1990 to 2019 has been re-estimated with use of consistent data and methods, these results supersede previously published GBD estimates of attributable burden. Findings: The largest declines in risk exposure from 2010 to 2019 were among a set of risks that are strongly linked to social and economic development, including household air pollution; unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing; and child growth failure. Global declines also occurred for tobacco smoking and lead exposure. The largest increases in risk exposure were for ambient particulate matter pollution, drug use, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body-mass index. In 2019, the leading Level 2 risk factor globally for attributable deaths was high systolic blood pressure, which accounted for 10·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 9·51–12·1) deaths (19·2% [16·9–21·3] of all deaths in 2019), followed by tobacco (smoked, second-hand, and chewing), which accounted for 8·71 million (8·12–9·31) deaths (15·4% [14·6–16·2] of all deaths in 2019). The leading Level 2 risk factor for attributable DALYs globally in 2019 was child and maternal malnutrition, which largely affects health in the youngest age groups and accounted for 295 million (253–350) DALYs (11·6% [10·3–13·1] of all global DALYs that year). The risk factor burden varied considerably in 2019 between age groups and locations. Among children aged 0–9 years, the three leading detailed risk factors for attributable DALYs were all related to malnutrition. Iron deficiency was the leading risk factor for those aged 10–24 years, alcohol use for those aged 25–49 years, and high systolic blood pressure for those aged 50–74 years and 75 years and older. Interpretation: Overall, the record for reducing exposure to harmful risks over the past three decades is poor. Success with reducing smoking and lead exposure through regulatory policy might point the way for a stronger role for public policy on other risks in addition to continued efforts to provide information on risk factor harm to the general public. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens

Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. Methods: GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution. Findings: Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990–2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0–9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10–24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10–24 years were also in the top ten in the 25–49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50–74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI. Interpretation: As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and developm nt investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. **Please note that there are multiple authors for this article therefore only the name of the first 5 including Federation University Australia affiliate “Muhammad Rahman” is provided in this record*

Post-Thoracotomy Pain: Review Article

Background: Thoracotomy is a very painful surgical procedure that is used to get access into the pleural space, to the lungs, to the heart, to the esophagus or to get access to the thoracic aorta or anterior mediastinum. Objective: To study different modalities of treatment used for post thoracotomy pain control. Recent Findings: Inadequate post-thoracotomy analgesia enhances the postoperative stress response with deleterious effects on respiratory, cardiovascular, gastrointestinal, urinary, immune and coagulation systems. In addition to anxiety and increased risk of Post Thoracotomy Pain Syndrome (PTPS), which can interfere with normal life and may persist for years or even for life?Conclusion: Providing adequate post-thoracotomy analgesia can be challenging, as patients are often elderly or having multiple comorbidities. A multimodal approach is considered in managing post-thoracotomy pain starting with preemptive analgesia and cognitive behavioral modalities in addition to conventional multimodal systemic regimens as opioids, acetaminophen, NSAID, cyclooxygenase (COX)-2-specific inhibitors, gabapentin and pregabalin, steroids, IV lidocaine infusion, ketamine, and many regional analgesic modalities to avoid or decrease adverse effects of systemic regimens. These regional analgesic modalities include thoracic epidural blocks, thoracic paravertebral blocks, intrathecal opioid analgesia, serratus anterior plane blocks, intercostal nerve blocks, interscalene block, erector spinae block and interpleural block

Gene expression of IQGAPs and Ras families in an experimental mouse model for hepatocellular carcinoma: a mechanistic study of cancer progression

IQGAPs genes play critical role in either induction or suppression of cancer and its progression, however the relationship between Ras genes and these genes are still unclear. In this study, we tried to understand the mechanistic action of IQGAPs genes and its correlation with Ras genes in mouse hepatic cancer model. The genetic expressions of IQGAP1, IQGAP2, IQGAP3, Hras, Kras, Nras, Mras, Caspase3, and BAX were followed in both hepatocellular carcinoma and normal liver cells of Balbc mice. Genotoxic agent diethylnitrosamine (DEN)-induced hepatic cancer model was induced in male mice and recorded the occurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma by morphological and histological changes in the liver. It was observed that mRNA expressions of IQGAP1, Hras, Kras, Nras, Mras, Caspase3, and BAX genes were highly elevated in hepatocellular carcinoma cells when compared with normal liver cells, additionally their expressions increased by concentrating the dose of DEN. While, the expressions of IQGAP2 and IQGAP3 were significantly decreased in hepatocellular carcinoma cells when compared with normal liver cells, as well as their expressions decreased more with increasing the dose of DEN. It was concluded from this study that IQGAP1 has a strong signaling relationship with Ras genes in induction of cancer and it is considered as a key gene for induction or suppression of the hepatocellular carcinoma

Thymoquinone suppression of the human hepatocellular carcinoma cell growth involves inhibition of IL-8 expression, elevated levels of TRAIL receptors, oxidative stress and apoptosis

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the fourth most common solid tumor worldwide. The chemokine interleukin-8 (IL-8) is overexpressed in HCC and is a potential target for therapy. Although the transcription factor NF-κB regulates IL-8 expression, and while thymoquinone (TQ; the most bioactive constituent of black seed oil) inhibits NF-κB activity, the precise mechanisms by which TQ regulates IL-8 and cancer cell growth remain to be clarified. Here, we report that TQ inhibited growth of HCC cells in a dose- and time-dependent manner, caused G2M cell cycle arrest, and stimulated apoptosis. Apoptosis was substantiated by activation of caspase-3 and -9, as well as cleavage of poly(ADP-ribose)polymerase. TQ treatments inhibited expression of NF-κB and suppressed IL-8 and its receptors. TQ treatments caused increased levels of reactive oxygen species (ROS) and mRNAs of oxidative stress-related genes, NQO1 and HO-1. Pretreatment of HepG2 cells with N-acetylcysteine, a scavenger of ROS, prevented TQ-induced cell death. TQ treatment stimulated mRNA expression of pro-apoptotic Bcl-xS and TRAIL death receptors, and inhibited expression of the anti-apoptotic gene Bcl-2. TQ enhanced TRAIL-induced death of HepG2 cells, in part by up-regulating TRAIL death receptors, inhibiting NF-κB and IL-8 and stimulating apoptosis. Altogether, these findings provide insights into the pleiotropic molecular mechanisms of TQ-dependent suppression of HCC cell growth and underscore potential of this compound as anti-HCC drug

Antimikrobno djelovanje nekih glukopiranozil-pirimidin karbonitrila i fuzioniranih pirimidinskih sustava

3-Amino-5-(4-chlorophenylamino)-4-cyanofuran-2-carboxamide (2) was used as the key molecule for preparation of various furo- pyrimidines 3-9 and formation of spiro-cycloalkane furopyrimidines 10, 11. Also, poly fused heterocyclic compounds 13-17 were prepared from compound 2. The synthesized compounds were screened for their antimicrobial activity.3-Amino-5-(4-klorfenilamino)-4-cijanofuran-2-karboksamid (2) upotrebljen je kao ključni spoj za pripravu različitih furo-pirimidina 3-9 i spiro-cikloalkane furopirimidina 10 i 11. Fuzionirani heterociklički spojevi 13-17 pripravljeni su također polazeći iz spoja 2. Sintetizirani spojevi ispitani su na antimikrobno djelovanje

Naringin attenuates the development of carrageenan-induced acute lung inflammation through inhibition of NF-κb, STAT3 and pro-inflammatory mediators and enhancement of IκBα and anti-inflammatory cytokines

Naringin has been reported to possess diverse pharmacological properties, including anti-arthritic and anti-inflammatory activities. The aim of the present study was to determine the potential anti-inflammatory effect of naringin in a mouse model of carrageenan-induced pleurisy. A single dose of naringin (40 and 80 mg/kg) was administered per oral (p.o.) 1 h before carrageenan (Cg) administration. Pro- and anti-inflammatory cytokines were analysed in pleural fluid. We also assessed the effects of naringin on the expression levels of iNOS, inducible cyclooxygenase isoform (COX-2), ICAM-1, MIP-2, PGE2, STAT3, TGF-β1, nuclear factor kappa B (NF-κB) and inhibitor of kappa B (IκBα) in lung tissue. The histological examinations revealed anti-inflammatory effect of naringin while Cg group deteriorated. Naringin downregulated Th1 and upregulated Th2 cytokines. Western blot analyses revealed increased protein expression of NF-κB, STAT3 and COX-2 and decreased IκBα in response to Cg treatment, which were reversed by the treatment with naringin. In the Cg group, mRNA expression levels of pro-inflammatory mediators upregulated and anti-inflammatory mediators downregulated. Naringin reversed these actions