Lateral thermokarst patterns in permafrost peat plateaus in northern Norway

Subarctic peatlands underlain by permafrost contain significant amounts of organic carbon. Our ability to quantify the evolution of such permafrost landscapes in numerical models is critical for providing robust predictions of the environmental and climatic changes to come. Yet, the accuracy of large-scale predictions has so far been hampered by small-scale physical processes that create a high spatial variability of thermal surface conditions, affecting the ground thermal regime and thus permafrost degradation patterns. In this regard, a better understanding of the small-scale interplay between microtopography and lateral fluxes of heat, water and snow can be achieved by field monitoring and process-based numerical modeling. Here, we quantify the topographic changes of the Šuoššjávri peat plateau (northern Norway) over a three-year period using drone-based repeat high-resolution photogrammetry. Our results show thermokarst degradation is concentrated on the edges of the plateau, representing 77 % of observed subsidence, while most of the inner plateau surface exhibits no detectable subsidence. Based on detailed investigation of eight zones of the plateau edge, we show that this edge degradation corresponds to an annual volume change of 0.13±0.07 m3 yr−1 per meter of retreating edge (orthogonal to the retreat direction). Using the CryoGrid3 land surface model, we show that these degradation patterns can be reproduced in a modeling framework that implements lateral redistribution of snow, subsurface water and heat, as well as ground subsidence due to melting of excess ice. By performing a sensitivity test for snow depths on the plateau under steady-state climate forcing, we obtain a threshold behavior for the start of edge degradation. Small snow depth variations (from 0 to 30 cm) result in highly different degradation behavior, from stability to fast degradation. For plateau snow depths in the range of field measurements, the simulated annual volume changes are broadly in agreement with the results of the drone survey. As snow depths are clearly correlated with ground surface temperatures, our results indicate that the approach can potentially be used to simulate climate-driven dynamics of edge degradation observed at our study site and other peat plateaus worldwide. Thus, the model approach represents a first step towards simulating climate-driven landscape development through thermokarst in permafrost peatlands

Simultaneous Resection of Primary Colorectal Cancer and Synchronous Liver Metastases: Contemporary Practice, Evidence and Knowledge Gaps

The timing of surgical resection of synchronous liver metastases from colorectal cancer has been debated for decades. Several strategies have been proposed, but high-level evidence remains scarce. Simultaneous resection of the primary tumour and liver metastases has been described in numerous retrospective audits and meta-analyses. The potential benefits of simultaneous resections are the eradication of the tumour burden in one procedure, overall shorter procedure time, reduced hospital stay with the likely benefits on quality of life and an expected reduction in the use of health care services compared to staged procedures. However, concerns about accumulating complications and oncological outcomes remain and the optimal selection criteria for whom simultaneous resections are beneficial remains undetermined. Based on the current level of evidence, simultaneous resection should be restricted to patients with a limited liver tumour burden. More high-level evidence studies are needed to evaluate the quality of life, complication burden, oncological outcomes, as well as overall health care implications for simultaneous resections

A Comparison between Simulated and Observed Surface Energy Balance at the Svalbard Archipelago

The surface energy balance at the Svalbard Archipelago has been simulated at high resolution with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model and compared with measurements of the individual energy fluxes from a tundra site near Ny-Ålesund (located north of Norway), as well as other near-surface measurements across the region. For surface air temperature, a good agreement between model and observations was found at all locations. High correlations were also found for daily averaged surface energy fluxes within the different seasons at the main site. The four radiation components showed correlations above 0.5 in all seasons (mostly above 0.9), whereas correlations between 0.3 and 0.8 were found for the sensible and latent heat fluxes. Underestimation of cloud cover and cloud optical thickness led to seasonal biases in incoming shortwave and longwave radiation of up to 30%. During summer, this was mainly a result of distinct days on which the model erroneously simulated cloud-free conditions, whereas the incoming radiation biases appeared to be more related to underestimation of cloud optical thickness during winter. The model overestimated both sensible and latent heat fluxes in most seasons. The model also initially overestimated the average Bowen ratio during summer by a factor of 6, but this bias was greatly reduced with two physically based model modifications that are related to frozen-ground hydrology. The seasonally averaged ground/snow heat flux was mostly in agreement with observations but showed too little short-time variability in the presence of thick snow. Overall, the model reproduced average temperatures well but overestimated diurnal cycles and showed considerable biases in the individual energy fluxes on seasonal and shorter time scales

Inclusion of a cold hardening scheme to represent frost tolerance is essential to model realistic plant hydraulics in the Arctic-boreal zone in CLM5.0-FATES-Hydro

As temperatures decrease in autumn, vegetation of temperate and boreal ecosystems increases its tolerance to freezing. This process, known as hardening, results in a set of physiological changes at the molecular level that initiate modifications of cell membrane composition and the synthesis of anti-freeze proteins. Together with the freezing of extracellular water, anti-freeze proteins reduce plant water potentials and xylem conductivity. To represent the responses of vegetation to climate change, land surface schemes increasingly employ "hydrodynamic"models that represent the explicit fluxes of water from soil and through plants. The functioning of such schemes under frozen soil conditions, however, is poorly understood. Nonetheless, hydraulic processes are of major importance in the dynamics of these systems, which can suffer from, e.g., winter "frost drought"events. In this study, we implement a scheme that represents hardening into CLM5.0-FATES-Hydro. FATES-Hydro is a plant hydrodynamics module in FATES, a cohort model of vegetation physiology, growth, and dynamics hosted in CLM5.0. We find that, in frozen systems, it is necessary to introduce reductions in plant water loss associated with hardening to prevent winter desiccation. This work makes it possible to use CLM5.0-FATES-Hydro to model realistic impacts from frost droughts on vegetation growth and photosynthesis, leading to more reliable projections of how northern ecosystems respond to climate change

Integration of a Frost Mortality Scheme Into the Demographic Vegetation Model FATES

Frost is damaging to plants when air temperature drops below their tolerance threshold. The set of mechanisms used by cold-tolerant plants to withstand freezing is called “hardening” and typically take place in autumn to protect against winter damage. The recent incorporation of a hardening scheme in the demographic vegetation model FATES opens up the possibility to investigate frost mortality to vegetation. Previously, the hardening scheme was used to improve hydraulic processes in cold-tolerant plants. In this study, we expand upon the existing hardening scheme by implementing hardiness-dependent frost mortality into CLM5.0-FATES to study the impacts of frost on vegetation in temperate and boreal sites from 1950 to 2015. Our results show that the original freezing mortality approach of FATES, where each plant type had a fixed freezing tolerance threshold—an approach common to many other dynamic vegetation models, was restricted to predicting plant type distribution. The main results emerging from the new scheme are a high autumn and spring frost mortality, especially at colder sites, and increasing mid-winter frost mortality due to global warming, especially at warmer sites. We demonstrate that the new frost scheme is a major step forward in dynamically representing vegetation in ESMs by for the first time including a level of frost tolerance that is responding to the environment and includes some level of cost (implicitly) and benefit. By linking hardening and frost mortality in a land surface model, we open new ways to explore the impact of frost events in the context of global warming

Towards representing small-scale changes in permafrost hydrology in Earth System Models

Field observations from a range of permafrost landscapes convincingly show that melting of ground ice can lead to modifications of the drainage regime so that soil moisture conditions can radically change in short time. This not only leads to significant changes in the carbon turnover, but can also trigger further permafrost thaw through complicated feedback loops. Representation of small-scale interactions between hydrology and ground thermal state are a crucial prerequisite for credible projections on a future permafrost carbon feedback. However, the present generation of Earth System Models, based on single column ground models representing coarse grid cells, can not account for such processes, although spatial heterogeneity is to a certain extent represented by means of tiling. Aiming for structural changes to overcome these challenges, we present the concept of “interacting tiles” developed in the Permanor, COUP and PermaRisk projects: by coupling tiles through lateral fluxes of heat, water and snow, it becomes possible to explicitly represent changes of microtopography, drainage regime and soil watercontents triggered by melting ground ice. Simulations with the CryoGrid permafrost model and the Noah-MP land surface scheme suggest that “interacting tiles” is capable of representing a range of thaw phenomena in strongly different permafrost landscapes, ranging from lateral erosion of peat plateaus (sporadic permafrost) to formation of thermokarst ponds and ice-wedge degradation in polygonal tundra (continuous permafrost). Using field observations from permafrost landscapes, we discuss prospects and challenges for application in coupled circulation models, focusing on model architecture and possibilities for model calibration/validation with field and remote sensing data sets

Trends, composition, and sources of carbonaceous aerosol at the Birkenes Observatory, northern Europe, 2001–2018

We present 18 years (2001–2018) of aerosol measurements, including organic and elemental carbon (OC andEC), organic tracers (levoglucosan, arabitol, mannitol, trehalose, glucose, and 2-methyltetrols), trace elements, andions, at the Birkenes Observatory (southern Norway) – a site representative of the northern European region. The OC/EC (2001–2018) and the levoglucosan (2008–2018) time series are the longest in Europe, with OC/EC available for the PM10, PM2.5 (fine), and PM10–2.5 (coarse) size fractions, providing the opportunity for a nearly 2-decade-long assessment. Using positive matrix factorization (PMF), we identify seven carbonaceous aerosol sources at Birkenes: mineral-dust-dominated aerosol (MIN), traffic/industry-like aerosol (TRA/IND), short-range-transported biogenic secondary organic aerosol (BSOASRT), primary biological aerosol particles (PBAP), biomass burning aerosol (BB), ammonium-nitrate-dominated aerosol (NH4NO3), and (one low carbon fraction) sea salt aerosol (SS). We observed significant (p < 0.05), large decreases in EC in PM10 (−3.9 % yr−1) and PM2.5 (−4.2 % yr−1) anda smaller decline in levoglucosan (−2.8 % yr−1), suggesting that OC/EC from traffic and industry is decreasing, whereas the abatement of OC/EC from biomass burning has beenslightly less successful. EC abatement with respect to anthropogenic sources is further supported by decreasing EC fractions in PM2.5 (−3.9 % yr−1) and PM10(−4.5 % yr−1). PMF apportioned 72 % of EC to fossil fuel sources; this was further supported by PMF applied to absorption photometer data, which yielded a two-factor solution with alow aerosol Ångstrøm exponent (AAE=0.93) fraction, as-sumed to be equivalent black carbon from fossil fuel combustion (eBCFF), contributing 78 % to eBC mass. The higher AAE fraction (AAE=2.04) is likely eBC from BB (eBCBB). Source–receptor model calculations (FLEXPART) showed that continental Europe and western Russia were the main source regions of both elevated eBCBB and eBCFF. Dominating biogenic sources explain why there was no downward trend for OC. A relative increase in the OC fraction in PM2.5(+3.2 % yr−1) and PM10(+2.4 % yr−1) underscores the importance of biogenic sources at Birkene (BSOA and PBAP), which were higher in the vegetative season and dominated both fine (53 %) and coarse (78 %) OC. Furthermore, 77 %–91 % of OC in PM2.5, PM10–2.5, and PM10 was attributed to biogenic sources in summer vs. 22 %–37 % in winter. The coarse fraction had the highest share of biogenic sources regardless of season and was dominated by PBAP, except in winter. Our results show a shift in the aerosol composition at Birkenes and, thus, also in the relative source contributions. The need for diverse offline and online carbonaceous aerosol speciation to understand carbonaceous aerosol sources, including their seasonal, annual, and long-term variability, has been demonstrated