Validation of earthquake ground-motion models in southern California, USA, using precariously balanced rocks

Accurate estimates of earthquake ground shaking rely on uncertain ground-motion models derived from limited instrumental recordings of historical earthquakes. A critical issue is that there is currently no method to empirically validate the resultant ground-motion estimates of these models at the timescale of rare, large earthquakes; this lack of validation causes great uncertainty in ground-motion estimates. Here, we address this issue and validate ground-motion estimates for southern California utilizing the unexceeded ground motions recorded by 20 precariously balanced rocks. We used cosmogenic 10Be exposure dating to model the age of the precariously balanced rocks, which ranged from ca. 1 ka to ca. 50 ka, and calculated their probability of toppling at different ground-motion levels. With this rock data, we then validated the earthquake ground motions estimated by the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3) seismic-source characterization and the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA)-West2 ground-motion models. We found that no ground-motion model estimated levels of earthquake ground shaking consistent with the observed continued existence of all 20 precariously balanced rocks. The ground-motion model I14 estimated ground-motion levels that were inconsistent with the most rocks; therefore, I14 was invalidated and removed. At a 2475 year mean return period, the removal of this invalid ground-motion model resulted in a 2−7% reduction in the mean and a 10−36% reduction in the 5th−95th fractile uncertainty of the ground-motion estimates. Our findings demonstrate the value of empirical data from precariously balanced rocks as a validation tool for removing invalid ground-motion models and, in turn, reducing the uncertainty in earthquake ground-motion estimates

The Genome of a Southern Hemisphere Seagrass Species (Zostera muelleri).

Seagrasses are marine angiosperms that evolved from land plants but returned to the sea around 140 million years ago during the early evolution of monocotyledonous plants. They successfully adapted to abiotic stresses associated with growth in the marine environment, and today, seagrasses are distributed in coastal waters worldwide. Seagrass meadows are an important oceanic carbon sink and provide food and breeding grounds for diverse marine species. Here, we report the assembly and characterization of the Zostera muelleri genome, a southern hemisphere temperate species. Multiple genes were lost or modified in Z. muelleri compared with terrestrial or floating aquatic plants that are associated with their adaptation to life in the ocean. These include genes for hormone biosynthesis and signaling and cell wall catabolism. There is evidence of whole-genome duplication in Z. muelleri; however, an ancient pan-commelinid duplication event is absent, highlighting the early divergence of this species from the main monocot lineages

REDUCE (Reviewing long-term antidepressant use by careful monitoring in everyday practice) internet and telephone support to people coming off long-term antidepressants: protocol for a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Around one in ten adults take antidepressants for depression in England, and their long-term use is increasing. Some need them to prevent relapse, but 30-50% could possibly stop them without relapsing and avoid adverse effects and complications of long-term use. However, stopping is not always easy due to withdrawal symptoms and a fear of relapse of depression. When general practitioners review patients on long-term antidepressants and recommend to those who are suitable to stop the medication, only 6-8% are able to stop. The Reviewing long-term antidepressant use by careful monitoring in everyday practice (REDUCE) research programme aims to identify safe and cost-effective ways of helping patients taking long-term antidepressants taper off treatment when appropriate. METHODS: Design: REDUCE is a two-arm, 1:1 parallel group randomised controlled trial, with randomisation clustered by participating family practices. SETTING: England and north Wales. POPULATION: patients taking antidepressants for longer than 1 year for a first episode of depression or longer than 2 years for repeated episodes of depression who are no longer depressed and want to try to taper off their antidepressant use. INTERVENTION: provision of 'ADvisor' internet programmes to general practitioners or nurse practitioners and to patients designed to support antidepressant withdrawal, plus three patient telephone calls from a psychological wellbeing practitioner. The control arm receives usual care. Blinding of patients, practitioners and researchers is not possible in an open pragmatic trial, but statistical and health economic data analysts will remain blind to allocation. OUTCOME MEASURES: the primary outcome is self-reported nine-item Patient Health Questionnaire at 6 months for depressive symptoms. SECONDARY OUTCOMES: depressive symptoms at other follow-up time points, anxiety, discontinuation of antidepressants, social functioning, wellbeing, enablement, quality of life, satisfaction, and use of health services for costs. SAMPLE SIZE: 402 patients (201 intervention and 201 controls) from 134 general practices recruited over 15-18 months, and followed-up at 3, 6, 9 and 12 months. A qualitative process evaluation will be conducted through interviews with 15-20 patients and 15-20 practitioners in each arm to explore why the interventions were effective or not, depending on the results. DISCUSSION: Helping patients reduce and stop antidepressants is often challenging for practitioners and time-consuming for very busy primary care practices. If REDUCE provides evidence showing that access to internet and telephone support enables more patients to stop treatment without increasing depression we will try to implement the intervention throughout the National Health Service, publishing practical guidance for professionals and advice for patients to follow, publicised through patient support groups. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN:12417565. Registered on 7 October 2019

Pharmacokinetics of Two Common Antiretroviral Regimens in Older HIV-Infected Patients: A Pilot Study

The pharmacokinetics (PK) of antiretrovirals (ARVs) in older HIV-infected patients are poorly described. Here, the steady-state PK of 2 common ARV regimens (tenofovir [TFV]/emtricitabine [FTC]/efavirenz [EFV]; TFV/FTC/atazanavir [ATV]/ritonavir [RTV]) in older non-frail HIV-infected patients are presented

Factors influencing time from presentation to treatment of colorectal and breast cancer in urban and rural areas

Stage at diagnosis and survival from cancer vary according to where people live, suggesting some may have delays in diagnosis. The aim of this study was to determine if time from presentation to treatment was longer for colorectal and breast cancer patients living further from cancer centres, and identify other important factors in delay. Data were collected on 1097 patients with breast and 1223 with colorectal cancer in north and northeast Scotland. Women with breast cancer who lived further from cancer centres were treated more quickly than those living closer to cancer centres (P = 0.011). Multilevel modelling found that this was largely due to them receiving earlier treatment at hospitals other than cancer centres. Breast lump, change in skin contour, lymphadenopathy, more symptoms and signs, and increasing age predicted faster treatment. Screen detected cancers and private referrals were treated more quickly. For colorectal cancer, time to treatment was similar for people in rural and urban areas. Quicker treatment was associated with palpable rectal or abdominal masses, tenesmus, abdominal pain, frequent GP consultations, age between 50 and 74 years, tumours of the transverse colon, and iron medication at presentation. Delay was associated with past anxiety or depression. There was variation between general practices and treatment appeared quicker at practices with more female general practitioners

Increasing socioeconomic inequalities in first acute myocardial infarction in Scotland, 1990–92 and 2000–02

<p>Background: Despite substantial declines, Ischaemic Heart Disease (IHD) remains the largest cause of death in Scotland and mortality rates are among the worst in Europe. There is evidence of strong, persisting regional and socioeconomic inequalities in IHD mortality, with the majority of such deaths being due to Acute Myocardial Infarction (AMI). We examine the changes in socioeconomic and geographic inequalities in first AMI events in Scotland and their interactions with age and gender.</p> <p>Methods: We used linked hospital discharge and death records covering the Scottish Population (5.1 million). Risk ratios (RR) of AMI incidence by area deprivation and age for men and women were estimated using multilevel Poisson modelling. Directly standardised rates were presented within these stratifications.</p> <p>Results: During 1990–92 74,213 people had a first AMI event and 56,995 in 2000–02. Adjusting for area deprivation accounted for 59% of the geographic variability in AMI incidence rates in 1990–92 and 33% in 2000–02. Geographic inequalities in male incidence reduced; RR for smaller areas (comparing area on 97.5th centile to 2.5th) reduced from 1.42 to 1.19. This was not true for women; RR increased from 1.45 to 1.59. The socioeconomic gradient in AMI incidence increased over time (p-value < 0.001) but this varied by age and gender. The gradient across deprivation categories for male incidence in 1990–92 was most pronounced at younger ages; RR of AMI in the most deprived areas compared to the least was 2.6 (95% CI: 1.6–4.3) for those aged 45–59 years and 1.6 (1.1–2.5) at 60–74 years. This association was also evident in women with even stronger socioeconomic gradients; RRs for these age groups were 4.4 (3.4–5.5), and 1.9 (1.7–2.2). Inequalities increased by 2000–02 for both sexes; RR for men aged 45–59 years was 3.3 (3.0–3.6) and for women was 5.6 (4.1–7.7)</p> <p>Conclusion: Relative socioeconomic inequalities in AMI incidence have increased and gradients are steepest in young women. The geographical patterning of AMI incidence cannot be fully explained by socioeconomic deprivation. The reduction of inequalities in AMI incidence is key to reducing overall inequalities in mortality and must be a priority if Scotland is to achieve its health potential.</p&gt

Smoking among pregnant women in Cantabria (Spain): trend and determinants of smoking cessation

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Cantabria (Spain) has one of the highest prevalence of smoking among women of the European Union. The objectives are to assess the trend of smoking during pregnancy in a five-year period and the determinants of smoking cessation during pregnancy in Cantabria.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A 1/6 random sample of all women delivering at the reference hospital of the region for the period 1998–2002 was drawn, 1559 women. Information was obtained from personal interview, clinical chart, and prenatal care records. In the analysis relative risks and 95% confidence intervals were estimated. Multivariable analysis was carried out using stepwise logistic regression.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Smoking prior to pregnancy decreased from 53.6% in 1998 to 39.4% in 2002. A decrease in smoking cessation among women smoking at the beginning of pregnancy was observed, from 37.3% in 1998 to 20.6% in 2002. The mean number of cigarettes/day (cig/d) before pregnancy remained constant, around 16 cig/d, whereas a slight trend to increase over time was seen, from 7.7 to 8.9 cig/d. In univariate analysis two variables favoured significantly smoking cessation, although they were not included in the stepwise logistic regression analysis, a higher education level and to be married. The logistic regression model included five significant predictors (also significant in univariate analysis): intensity of smoking, number of previous pregnancies, partner's smoking status, calendar year of study period (these four variables favoured smoking continuation), and adequate prenatal care (which increased smoking cessation).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The frequency of smoking among pregnant women is very high in Cantabria. As smoking cessation rate has decreased over time, a change in prenatal care programme on smoking counseling is needed. Several determinants of smoking cessation, such as smoking before pregnancy and partner's smoking, should be also addressed by community programmes.</p

The granite‑hosted Variscan gold deposit from Santo António mine in the Iberian Massif (Penedono, NW Portugal): constraints from mineral chemistry, fuid inclusions, sulfur and noble gases isotopes

The study area is located in the Central Iberian Zone, a major tectonic unit of the Iberian Massif (Variscan belt). In this region the basement is composed of Cambrian-Ordovician sedimentary and minor volcanic rocks that underwent deformation and metamorphism during the Carboniferous. These metamorphic rocks host ca. 331–308 Ma granitic plutons emplaced during the D2 extensional and D3–D4 contractional deformation phases. The gold-bearing quartz veins from the Santo António mine (Penedono region) occur in granite formed at 310.1 ± 1.1 Ma and post-dated the peak of metamorphism. Gold–silver alloy is included in quartz, but mainly occurs in spaces between grains or micro-fractures within arsenopyrite of all three generations and less in pyrite. Late sulphides and sulphosalts were deposited along fractures mainly in arsenopyrite, and locally surrounding the gold–silver alloy grains. Ferberite, scheelite and stolzite replace arsenopyrite. The abundant aqueous carbonic fluids and the occurrence of a low-salinity fluid and their minimum possible entrapment temperature of 360–380 °C suggest that this gold-forming event began during the waning stages of the Variscan orogeny. The mean δ34S values of arsenopyrite and pyrite are − 4.7‰ and − 3.8‰, respectively. He–Ar–Ne isotopic data suggest a crustal origin. The ascent of the granite magma has provided the heat for remobilization of gold, other metals and metalloids from the metamorphic rocks. This gold-arsenopyrite deposit has thus similar characteristics as other selected gold-arsenopyrite deposits from the Iberian Massif, but it contains tungstates.El área de estudio está ubicada en la Zona Centroibérica, una importante unidad tectónica del Macizo Ibérico (cinturón varisco). En esta región el basamento está compuesto por rocas sedimentarias y volcánicas del Cámbrico-Ordovícico tectonizadas y metamorfzadas durante el Carbonífero. Estas rocas metamórfcas sirven como caja de los plutones graníticos datados en torno a 331–308 Ma y que fueron emplazados durante la fase de deformación extensional D2 y las fases de deformación contraccional D3 y D4. Las venas de cuarzo ricas en oro de la mina de Santo António (región de Penedono) que aparecen en un granito datado a los 310.1 ± 1.1 Ma son posteriores al pico metamórfco regional. La aleación de oro y plata se incluye en el cuarzo, pero se produce principalmente en los espacios entre granos o micro-fracturas dentro de arsenopirita de las tres generaciones y menos en pirita. Los sulfuros y sulfuros tardíos se depositaron a lo largo de las fracturas principalmente en arsenopirita, y alrededor de los granos de aleación de oro y plata. Ferberita, scheelita y la estolzita sustituyen a la arsenopirita. Los abundantes líquidos acuosos carbónicos y la presencia de un fuido de baja salinidad y su posible temperatura de atrapamiento mínima en torno de 360-380 ºC sugieren que este evento de formación de oro comenzó durante las etapas fnales de la orogenia varisca. Los valores medios de S de arsenopirita y pirita son − 4.7 ‰ y − 3.8 ‰, respectivamente. Los datos isotópicos de He–Ar–Ne sugieren que en el origen de los fuidos mineralizados participa la corteza continental. El ascenso del magma granítico ha provisto el calor para la movilización del oro, otros metales y metaloides desde las rocas metamórfcas. Este depósito de oroarsenopirita tiene así características similares a otros yaciamientos con arsenopirita y oro del Macizo Ibérico, pero sin embargo contienen tungstates.This research was financially supported by Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia through the projects GOLDGranites, Orogenesis, Long-term strain/stress and Deposition of ore metals—PTDC/GEO-GEO/2446/2012: COMPETE: FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER-029192 and UID/GEO/04035/2013

Unravelling a simple method for the low temperature synthesis of silicon nanocrystals and monolithic nanocrystalline thin films

In this work, we present new results on the plasma processing and structure of hydrogenated polymorphous silicon (pm-Si:H) thin films. pm-Si:H thin films consist of a low volume fraction of silicon nanocrystals embedded in a silicon matrix with medium range order, and they possess this morphology as a significant contribution to their growth comes from the impact on the substrate of silicon clusters and nanocrystals synthesized in the plasma. Quadrupole mass spectrometry, ion flux measurements, and material characterization by transmission electron microscopy (TEM) and atomic force microscopy all provide insight on the contribution to the growth by silicon nanocrystals during PECVD deposition. In particular, cross-section TEM measurements show for the first time that the silicon nanocrystals are uniformly distributed across the thickness of the pm-Si:H film. Moreover, parametric studies indicate that the best pm-Si:H material is obtained at the conditions after the transition between a pristine plasma and one containing nanocrystals, namely a total gas pressure around 2 Torr and a silane to hydrogen ratio between 0.05 to 0.1. From a practical point of view these conditions also correspond to the highest deposition rate achievable for a given RF power and silane flow rate.ope

Structural Brain Changes Related to Disease Duration in Patients with Asthma

Dyspnea is the impairing, cardinal symptom patients with asthma repeatedly experience over the course of the disease. However, its accurate perception is also crucial for timely initiation of treatment. Reduced perception of dyspnea is associated with negative treatment outcome, but the underlying brain mechanisms of perceived dyspnea in patients with asthma remain poorly understood. We examined whether increasing disease duration in fourteen patients with mild-to-moderate asthma is related to structural brain changes in the insular cortex and brainstem periaqueductal grey (PAG). In addition, the association between structural brain changes and perceived dyspnea were studied. By using magnetic resonance imaging in combination with voxel-based morphometry, gray matter volumes of the insular cortex and the PAG were analysed and correlated with asthma duration and perceived affective unpleasantness of resistive load induced dyspnea. Whereas no associations were observed for the insular cortex, longer duration of asthma was associated with increased gray matter volume in the PAG. Moreover, increased PAG gray matter volume was related to reduced ratings of dyspnea unpleasantness. Our results demonstrate that increasing disease duration is associated with increased gray matter volume in the brainstem PAG in patients with mild-to-moderate asthma. This structural brain change might contribute to the reduced perception of dyspnea in some patients with asthma and negatively impact the treatment outcome