The HTA risk analysis chart: visualising the need for and potential value of managed entry agreements in health technology assessment

Background Recent changes to the regulatory landscape of pharmaceuticals may sometimes require reimbursement authorities to issue guidance on technologies that have a less mature evidence base. Decision makers need to be aware of risks associated with such health technology assessment (HTA) decisions and the potential to manage this risk through managed entry agreements (MEAs). Objective This work develops methods for quantifying risk associated with specific MEAs and for clearly communicating this to decision makers. Methods We develop the ‘HTA risk analysis chart’, in which we present the payer strategy and uncertainty burden (P-SUB) as a measure of overall risk. The P-SUB consists of the payer uncertainty burden (PUB), the risk stemming from decision uncertainty as to which is the truly optimal technology from the relevant set of technologies, and the payer strategy burden (PSB), the additional risk of approving a technology that is not expected to be optimal. We demonstrate the approach using three recent technology appraisals from the UK National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE), each of which considered a price-based MEA. Results The HTA risk analysis chart was calculated using results from standard probabilistic sensitivity analyses. In all three HTAs, the new interventions were associated with substantial risk as measured by the P-SUB. For one of these technologies, the P-SUB was reduced to zero with the proposed price reduction, making this intervention cost effective with near complete certainty. For the other two, the risk reduced substantially with a much reduced PSB and a slightly increased PUB. Conclusions The HTA risk analysis chart shows the risk that the healthcare payer incurs under unresolved decision uncertainty and when considering recommending a technology that is not expected to be optimal given current evidence. This allows the simultaneous consideration of financial and data-collection MEA schemes in an easily understood format. The use of HTA risk analysis charts will help to ensure that MEAs are considered within a standard utility-maximising health economic decision-making framework

A hysteretic multiscale formulation for validating computational models of heterogeneous structures

A framework for the development of accurate yet computationally efficient numerical models is proposed in this work, within the context of computational model validation. The accelerated computation achieved herein relies on the implementation of a recently derived multiscale finite element formulation, able to alternate between scales of different complexity. In such a scheme, the micro-scale is modelled using a hysteretic finite elements formulation. In the micro-level, nonlinearity is captured via a set of additional hysteretic degrees of freedom compactly described by an appropriate hysteric law, which gravely simplifies the dynamic analysis task. The computational efficiency of the scheme is rooted in the interaction between the micro- and a macro-mesh level, defined through suitable interpolation fields that map the finer mesh displacement field to the coarser mesh displacement field. Furthermore, damage related phenomena that are manifested at the micro-level are accounted for, using a set of additional evolution equations corresponding to the stiffness degradation and strength deterioration of the underlying material. The developed modelling approach is utilized for the purpose of model validation; firstly, in the context of reliability analysis; and secondly, within an inverse problem formulation where the identification of constitutive parameters via availability of acceleration response data is sought

GLAST: Understanding the High Energy Gamma-Ray Sky

We discuss the ability of the GLAST Large Area Telescope (LAT) to identify, resolve, and study the high energy gamma-ray sky. Compared to previous instruments the telescope will have greatly improved sensitivity and ability to localize gamma-ray point sources. The ability to resolve the location and identity of EGRET unidentified sources is described. We summarize the current knowledge of the high energy gamma-ray sky and discuss the astrophysics of known and some prospective classes of gamma-ray emitters. In addition, we also describe the potential of GLAST to resolve old puzzles and to discover new classes of sources.Comment: To appear in Cosmic Gamma Ray Sources, Kluwer ASSL Series, Edited by K.S. Cheng and G.E. Romer

Decaying Dark Matter in Supersymmetric Model and Cosmic-Ray Observations

We study cosmic-rays in decaying dark matter scenario, assuming that the dark matter is the lightest superparticle and it decays through a R-parity violating operator. We calculate the fluxes of cosmic-rays from the decay of the dark matter and those from the standard astrophysical phenomena in the same propagation model using the GALPROP package. We reevaluate the preferred parameters characterizing standard astrophysical cosmic-ray sources with taking account of the effects of dark matter decay. We show that, if energetic leptons are produced by the decay of the dark matter, the fluxes of cosmic-ray positron and electron can be in good agreements with both PAMELA and Fermi-LAT data in wide parameter region. It is also discussed that, in the case where sizable number of hadrons are also produced by the decay of the dark matter, the mass of the dark matter is constrained to be less than 200-300 GeV in order to avoid the overproduction of anti-proton. We also show that the cosmic gamma-ray flux can be consistent with the results of Fermi-LAT observation if the mass of the dark matter is smaller than nearly 4 TeV.Comment: 24 pages, 5 figure

A systematic review and meta-synthesis of the impact of low back pain on people's lives

Copyright @ 2014 Froud et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly credited.Background - Low back pain (LBP) is a common and costly problem that many interpret within a biopsychosocial model. There is renewed concern that core-sets of outcome measures do not capture what is important. To inform debate about the coverage of back pain outcome measure core-sets, and to suggest areas worthy of exploration within healthcare consultations, we have synthesised the qualitative literature on the impact of low back pain on people’s lives. Methods - Two reviewers searched CINAHL, Embase, PsycINFO, PEDro, and Medline, identifying qualitative studies of people’s experiences of non-specific LBP. Abstracted data were thematic coded and synthesised using a meta-ethnographic, and a meta-narrative approach. Results - We included 49 papers describing 42 studies. Patients are concerned with engagement in meaningful activities; but they also want to be believed and have their experiences and identity, as someone ‘doing battle’ with pain, validated. Patients seek diagnosis, treatment, and cure, but also reassurance of the absence of pathology. Some struggle to meet social expectations and obligations. When these are achieved, the credibility of their pain/disability claims can be jeopardised. Others withdraw, fearful of disapproval, or unable or unwilling to accommodate social demands. Patients generally seek to regain their pre-pain levels of health, and physical and emotional stability. After time, this can be perceived to become unrealistic and some adjust their expectations accordingly. Conclusions - The social component of the biopsychosocial model is not well represented in current core-sets of outcome measures. Clinicians should appreciate that the broader impact of low back pain includes social factors; this may be crucial to improving patients’ experiences of health care. Researchers should consider social factors to help develop a portfolio of more relevant outcome measures.Arthritis Research U

The distribution of pond snail communities across a landscape: separating out the influence of spatial position from local habitat quality for ponds in south-east Northumberland, UK

Ponds support a rich biodiversity because the heterogeneity of individual ponds creates, at the landscape scale, a diversity of habitats for wildlife. The distribution of pond animals and plants will be influenced by both the local conditions within a pond and the spatial distribution of ponds across the landscape. Separating out the local from the spatial is difficult because the two are often linked. Pond snails are likely to be affected by both local conditions, e.g. water hardness, and spatial patterns, e.g. distance between ponds, but studies of snail communities struggle distinguishing between the two. In this study, communities of snails were recorded from 52 ponds in a biogeographically coherent landscape in north-east England. The distribution of snail communities was compared to local environments characterised by the macrophyte communities within each pond and to the spatial pattern of ponds throughout the landscape. Mantel tests were used to partial out the local versus the landscape respective influences. Snail communities became more similar in ponds that were closer together and in ponds with similar macrophyte communities as both the local and the landscape scale were important for this group of animals. Data were collected from several types of ponds, including those created on nature reserves specifically for wildlife, old field ponds (at least 150 years old) primarily created for watering livestock and subsidence ponds outside protected areas or amongst coastal dunes. No one pond type supported all the species. Larger, deeper ponds on nature reserves had the highest numbers of species within individual ponds but shallow, temporary sites on farm land supported a distinct temporary water fauna. The conservation of pond snails in this region requires a diversity of pond types rather than one idealised type and ponds scattered throughout the area at a variety of sites, not just concentrated on nature reserves

Cerebellar Integrity in the Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis - Frontotemporal Dementia Continuum

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) and behavioural variant frontotemporal dementia (bvFTD) are multisystem neurodegenerative disorders that manifest overlapping cognitive, neuropsychiatric and motor features. The cerebellum has long been known to be crucial for intact motor function although emerging evidence over the past decade has attributed cognitive and neuropsychiatric processes to this structure. The current study set out i) to establish the integrity of cerebellar subregions in the amyotrophic lateral sclerosis-behavioural variant frontotemporal dementia spectrum (ALS-bvFTD) and ii) determine whether specific cerebellar atrophy regions are associated with cognitive, neuropsychiatric and motor symptoms in the patients. Seventy-eight patients diagnosed with ALS, ALS-bvFTD, behavioural variant frontotemporal dementia (bvFTD), most without C9ORF72 gene abnormalities, and healthy controls were investigated. Participants underwent cognitive, neuropsychiatric and functional evaluation as well as structural imaging using voxel-based morphometry (VBM) to examine the grey matter subregions of the cerebellar lobules, vermis and crus. VBM analyses revealed: i) significant grey matter atrophy in the cerebellum across the whole ALS-bvFTD continuum; ii) atrophy predominantly of the superior cerebellum and crus in bvFTD patients, atrophy of the inferior cerebellum and vermis in ALS patients, while ALS-bvFTD patients had both patterns of atrophy. Post-hoc covariance analyses revealed that cognitive and neuropsychiatric symptoms were particularly associated with atrophy of the crus and superior lobule, while motor symptoms were more associated with atrophy of the inferior lobules. Taken together, these findings indicate an important role of the cerebellum in the ALS-bvFTD disease spectrum, with all three clinical phenotypes demonstrating specific patterns of subregional atrophy that associated with different symptomology

Engaging Caregivers and Providers of Children With Sickle Cell Anemia in Shared Decision Making for Hydroxyurea: Protocol for a Multicenter Randomized Controlled Trial

BACKGROUND: Sickle cell anemia (SCA) is a genetic blood disorder that puts children at a risk of serious medical complications, early morbidity and mortality, and high health care utilization. Until recently, hydroxyurea was the only disease-modifying treatment for this life-threatening disease and has remained the only option for children younger than 5 years. Evidence-based guidelines recommend using a shared decision-making (SDM) approach for offering hydroxyurea to children with SCA (HbSS or HbS/β0 thalassemia) aged as early as 9 months. However, the uptake remains suboptimal, likely because caregivers lack information about hydroxyurea and have concerns about its safety and potential long-term side effects. Moreover, clinicians do not routinely receive training or tools, especially those that provide medical evidence and consider caregivers' preferences and values, to facilitate a shared discussion with caregivers. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study is to understand how best to help parents of young children with sickle cell disease and their clinicians have a shared discussion about hydroxyurea (one that considers medical evidence and parent values and preferences). METHODS: We designed our study to compare the effectiveness of two methods for disseminating hydroxyurea guidelines to facilitate SDM: a clinician pocket guide (ie, usual care) and a clinician hydroxyurea SDM toolkit (H-SDM toolkit). Our primary outcomes are caregiver reports of decisional uncertainty and knowledge of hydroxyurea. The study also assesses the number of children (aged 0-5 years) who were offered and prescribed hydroxyurea and the resultant health outcomes. RESULTS: The Ethics Committee of the Cincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center approved this study in November 2017. As of February 2021, we have enrolled 120 caregiver participants. CONCLUSIONS: The long-term objective of this study is to improve the quality of care for children with SCA. Using multicomponent dissemination methods developed in partnership with key stakeholders and designed to address barriers to high-quality care, caregivers of patients with SCA can make informed and shared decisions about their health. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03442114; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03442114. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): DERR1-10.2196/27650

Longitudinal changes in sedentary time and physical activity during adolescence

BACKGROUND: Low levels of physical activity and high time spent in sedentary activities have been associated with unfavourable health outcomes in adolescents. During adolescence, physical activity declines and sedentary time increases, however little is known about whether the magnitude of these changes differs within or between school-time, after-school time, or at weekends. METHODS: Adolescents (n = 363) participating in the PEACH (Personal and Environmental Associations with Children’s Health) project provided accelerometer data at 12 and 15 years of age. Data were collected in 2008/2009 and 2012/2013. Time spent sedentary (<100 cpm), in light physical activity (LPA (100-2295 cpm) and in moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA: ≥ 2296 cpm) were generated for school-time, after-school time and for weekends using school-specific start and finish times. All data were analysed in 2014. RESULTS: The proportion of time spent sedentary significantly increased during school (+8.23%, 95% CI = 7.35 to 9.13), after-school (+6.99%, 95% CI = 5.91 to 8.07) and at weekends (+6.86%, 95% CI = 5.10 to 8.62). A parallel decrease was found in the proportion of time spent in LPA during school (-7.62%, 95% CI = -8.26 to -6.98), after-school (-7.01%, 95% CI = -7.74 to -6.28) and at weekends (-6.72%, 95% CI = -7.80 to -5.65). The proportion of time spent in MVPA remained relatively stable during school (-0.64, 95% CI = -1.11 to -0.18), after-school (0.04%, 95% CI = -0.58 to 0.67) and at weekends (-0.14%, 95% CI = -1.18 to 0.90). CONCLUSIONS: Objectively measured sedentary time increased between 12 and 15 years of age during-school, after-school, and at weekends, suggesting that interventions aiming to reduce the age-associated changes in sedentary time are needed in all three time contexts. Future work should identify which sedentary activities change more than others to inform interventions which aim to minimise the increase in time spent sedentary during adolescence