Optimizing fire station locations for the Istanbul metropolitan municipality

Copyright @ 2013 INFORMSThe Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (IMM) seeks to determine locations for additional fire stations to build in Istanbul; its objective is to make residences and historic sites reachable by emergency vehicles within five minutes of a fire station’s receipt of a service request. In this paper, we discuss our development of a mathematical model to aid IMM in determining these locations by using data retrieved from its fire incident records. We use a geographic information system to implement the model on Istanbul’s road network, and solve two location models—set-covering and maximal-covering—as what-if scenarios. We discuss 10 scenarios, including the situation that existed when we initiated the project and the scenario that IMM implemented. The scenario implemented increases the city’s fire station coverage from 58.6 percent to 85.9 percent, based on a five-minute response time, with an implementation plan that spans three years

A problem-structuring model for analyzing transportation–environment relationships

This is the post-print version of the final paper published in European Journal of Operational Research. The published article is available from the link below. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. Copyright @ 2009 Elsevier B.V.This study discusses a decision support framework that guides policy makers in their strategic transportation related decisions by using multi-methodology. For this purpose, a methodology for analyzing the effects of transportation policies on environment, society, economy, and energy is proposed. In the proposed methodology, a three-stage problem structuring model is developed. Initially, experts’ opinions are structured by using a cognitive map to determine the relationships between transportation and environmental concepts. Then a structural equation model (SEM) is constructed, based on the cognitive map, to quantify the relations among external transportation and environmental factors. Finally the results of the SEM model are used to evaluate the consequences of possible policies via scenario analysis. In this paper a pilot study that covers only one module of the whole framework, namely transportation–environment interaction module, is conducted to present the applicability and usefulness of the methodology. This pilot study also reveals the impacts of transportation policies on the environment. To achieve a sustainable transportation system, the extent of the relationships between transportation and the environment must be considered. The World Development Indicators developed by the World Bank are used for this purpose

Are road transportation investments in line with demand projections? A gravity-based analysis for Turkey

This is the post-print version of the article which has been published and is available at the link below.In this research, an integrated gravity-based model was built, and a scenario analysis was conducted to project the demand levels for routes related to the highway projects suggested in TINA-Turkey. The gravity-based model was used to perform a disaggregated analysis to estimate the demand levels that will occur on the routes which are planned to be improved in specific regions of Turkey from now until 2020. During the scenario development phase for these gravity-based models, the growth rate of Turkey's GDP, as estimated by the World Bank from now until 2017, was used as the baseline scenario. Besides, it is assumed that the gross value added (GVA) of the origin and destination regions of the selected routes will show a pattern similar to GDP growth rates. Based on the estimated GDP values, and the projected GVA growth rates, the demand for each selected route was projected and found that the demand level for some of these road projects is expected to be very low, and hence additional measures would be needed to make these investments worthwhile

Senaryo analizi için dinamik bir yaklaşım önerisi

This paper proposes a dynamic scenario analysis approach in order to understand the uncertainties about the future.  The development of alternative futures/scenarios is an important part of strategy making. This paper's objective is to propose an improved scenario analysis model based on Powell's scenario analysis approach, namely, EFAR (Extended Field Anomaly Relaxation) (Powell, 1997). This improved model is referred as REFAR (Revised EFAR) hereinafter and is expected to provide a useful guide both in public and private organizations, during their scenario planning activities. REFAR aims to eliminate the basic drawbacks of EFAR and improve its efficiency by the help of cognitive maps and artificial neural networks. In the application part of the research, REFAR is applied to Turkey's inflation analysis. Initially the probable scenarios are built, and the transitions between them are analysed. The basic scenarios finally reached through REFAR, the transition among each key scenarios as well as among the scenarios grouped under each key scenario are explained in detail. The scenarios within each key scenario clusters provide a detailed picture of all the possible futures that may be encountered. Using them, it is also possible to see the possible transition and the resulting changes that will occur within the other scenarios in the same key cluster and in the scenarios of other clusters that the scenario of interest is in direct relation with. Keywords: Cognitive mapping, neural networks, scenarios.Bu çalışmada, gelecekteki belirsizlikleri anlamaya yönelik olarak kullanılan senaryo analizi için dinamik bir yaklaşım önerilmektedir. Powell (1997) tarafından ortaya konan EFAR (Durum Bozukluklarının Giderilmesine Yönelik Bir Yaklaşım / Extended Field Anomaly Relaxation) modeli; senaryo analizine dinamik bir yapı kazandırmıştır. Ancak bazı zayıf yönleri mevcuttur ve geliştirilmeye açıktır. Bu amaçla, bu çalışmada EFAR yaklaşımındaki zayıf yönleri gidermeyi ve böylece onu, daha etkinleştirmeyi hedefleyen yeni bir model: REFAR (Düzeltilmiş / Revised EFAR) modeli önerilmektedir. Bu doğrultuda bilişsel haritalar ve yapay sinir ağlarından yararlanılmıştır. Uygulamada REFAR modeli aracılığıyla, Türkiye’de enflasyon konusunda karar vericilere destek olabilecek nitelikte dinamik bir senaryo analiz yapısı oluşturulmuştur. Anahtar Kelimeler: Bilişsel haritalar, senaryolar, yapay sinir ağları

Prospects for Research in Transport and Logistics on a Regional: Global Perspective (I: February 2009: İstanbul: Turkey)

"International Conference on Prospects for Research in Transport and Logistics on a Global - Regional Perspective" has undertaken the challenge to host very important experts and practitioners of Transport and Logistics from a large spectrum of countries. In our opinion, the conference has fulfilled the purpose of establishing an International Society; "Eurasian and Eastern Mediterranean Institute of Transportation and Logistics Association (EMIT)" that is expected to have a very promising role in the Eurasian and Eastern Mediterranean countries. The purpose of the Association is to contribute to establishing and developing the exchange of research work between all parts of the world in all fields of transportation and logistics. This proceedings book consists of 13 chapters, grouping the contributed papers into the following categories: Global Issues in Logistics and Transportation (3 papers), Regional Issues in Logistics and Transportation (2 papers), Education and Training in Logistics and Transportation (2 papers), Supply Chain Management (3 papers), Sustainable Transport Policies, Traffic Engineering (4 papers), Evaluation of Public Policies, Network Models and Environment (4 papers), Contemporary Topics in Transport and Logistics (7 papers), Transport Planning and Economics (3 papers), Planning, Operations, Management and Control of Transport and Logistics (3 papers), Transport Modeling (5 papers), Freight Transportation and Logistics Management (7 papers), Transport and Land Use (3 papers), Transport Infrastructure and Investment Appraisal (2 papers) It can be readily seen from this volume of selected papers that all papers do elaborate on rather timely problems in the fields of expertise related to Transport and Logistics, which have a considerable global importance.TÜBİTAK; Doğuş Üniversitesi ; Uluslararası Nakliyeciler Derneği ; İDO ; Tırsan ; Türk Hava YollarıCommittees, i -- Words of Welcome and Gratitude, ii -- Introduction, iii -- Chapter 1 Global Issues in Logistics and Transportation, 1 -- Potential to Reduce GHG through Efficient Logistic Concepts, 3 -- Werner Rothengatter -- A methodological framework for the evaluation and prioritisation of multinational transport projects: the Case of euro-asian transport linkages, 21 / Dimitrios TSAMBOULAS, Angeliki KOPSACHEILI -- Container port throughput performance - case study: Far east, north west european and mediterranean ports, 29 / Vesna DRAGOVIC-RADINOVIC, Branislav DRAGOVIC, Maja SKURIC, EmirĞIKMIROVlC and Ivan KRAPOVIC -- Chapter 2 Regional Issues in Logistics and Transportation, 35 -- Logistics service providers in turkey: A panel data analysis, 37 / Emel AKTAŞ, Füsun ÜLENGİN, Berrin AĞARAN, Şule ÖNSEL -- Milestones in the process of survey preparation for the logistics sector: case study for Istanbul, Turkey, 43 / Evren POSACI, Darçın AKIN -- Chapter 3 Education and Training in Logistics and Transportation, 51 -- Education in transport and logistics in an age of global economy, 53 / Yücel Candemlr -- The role of education and training in the supply chain sector, 59 / David Maunder -- Chapter 4 Supply Chain Management, 64 -- Modeling reverse flows in a closed -loop supply chain network, 67 / Vildan ÖZKIR, Önder ÖNDEMİR and Hüseyin BAŞLIGİL -- Strategic analysis of green supply chain management practices in T urkish automotive industry, 73 / Gülçin BÜYÜKÖZKAN and Alişan ÇAPAN -- A new framework for port competitiveness: the network approach, 79 / Marcella DE MARTINO, Alfonso MORVILLO -- Chapter 5 Sustainable Transport Policies, Traffic Engineering, 87 -- Clean transport: innovative solutions to the creation of a more sustainable urban transport system, 89 / Ela BABALIK-SUTCLIFFE -- Effects of urban bottlenecks on highway traffic congestion: case study of Istanbul, Turkey, 95 / Darçın AKIN and Mehtap ÇELİK -- Establishing an effective training module for IMDG code in MET institutions, 105 / Kadir CICEK, Metin CELIK -- An investment decision aid proposal towards choice of container terminal operating systems based on information axioms, 109 / Metin CELIK, Selcuk CEBI -- Chapter 6 Evaluation of Public Policies, Network Models and Environment, 115 -- Possibilistic linear programming approach for strategic resource planning, 117 / Özgür KABAK, Füsun ÜLENGİN -- A structural equation model for measuring service quality in passenger transportation, 125 / G.Nilay YÜCENUR and Nihan ÇETİN DEMİREL -- Analysis of potential gain from using hybrid vehicles in public transportation, 133 / İrem DÜZDAR and Özay ÖZAYDIN -- Optimization of e-waste management in Marmara region - Turkey, 141 / İlke BEREKETLİ, Müjde EROL GENEVOIS -- Chapter 7 Contemporary Topics in Transport and Logistics, 147 -- Future prospects on urban logistic research, 149 / Rosârio MACÂRIO, Vasco REIS -- An analyze of relationship between container ships and ports development, 155 / Branislav DRAGOVIC, Vesna Dragovic-Radinovic, Dusanka Jovovic, Romeo Mestrovic and Emir Ğikmirovic -- A holistic framework for performance measurement in logistics management, 161 / Yasemin Claire ERENSAL -- Heuristics for a generalization of tsp in the context of PCB assembly, 167 / Ali Fuat ALKAYA and Ekrem DUMAN -- Premium e-grocery: Exploring value in logistics integrated service solutions, 173 / Burçin BOZKAYA, Ronan De KERVENOAEL and D. Selcen Ö. AYKAÇ -- T ravelers response to VMS in the Athens area, 179 / Athena TSIRIMPA and Amalia POLYDOROPOULOU -- Regional airports and local development: the challenging balance between sustainability and economic growth, 189 / Rosârio MACÂRIO and Jorge SILVA -- Chapter 8 Transport Planning and Economics, 195 -- How financial constraints and non-optimal pricing affect the design of public transport services, 197 / Sergio R. Jara-Diaz and Antonio Gschwender -- Revenue management for returned products in reverse logistics, 203 / Mesut KUMRU -- Intra-city bus planning using computer simulation, 211 / Reza AZIMI and Amin ALVANCHI -- Chapter 9 Planning, Operations, Management and Control of Transport and Logistics, 217 -- A review of timetabling and resource allocation models for light-rail transportation systems, 219 / Selmin D. ÖNCÜL, D. Selcen Ö. AYKAÇ, Demet BAYRAKTAR and Dilay ÇELEBİ -- An approach of integrated logistics HMMS model under environment constraints and an application of time scale, 225 / Fahriye Uysal, Ömür Tosun, Orhan Kuruüzüm -- Freight transport planning with genetic algorithm based projected demand, 231 / Soner HALDENBILEN, Ozgur BASKAN, Huseyin CEYLAN and Halim CEYLAN -- Chapter 10 Transport Modeling, 239 -- Inverse model to estimate o-d matrix from link traffic counts using ant colony optimization, 241 / Halim CEYLAN, Soner HALDENBILEN, Huseyin CEYLAN, Ozgur BASKAN -- The impact of logistics on modelling commercial freight traffic, 251 / Ute IDDINK and Uwe CLAUSEN -- A comparative reviewof simulation-based behavior modeling for travel demand generation, 257 / Seda Yanık, Mehmet Tanyaş -- An efficiency analysis of turkish container ports using the analytic network process, 269 / Senay OĞUZTİMUR, Umut Rıfat TUZKAYA -- A multi-objective approach to designing a multicommudity supply chain distribution network with multiple capacities, 277 / Gholam Reza Nasiri, Hamid Davoudpour and B.Karimi -- Chapter 11 Freight Transportation and Logistics Management, 283 -- Evaluation of turkey’s freight transportation, 285 / Burcu KULELİ PAKand BaharSENNAROĞLU -- Short sea shipping, intermodality and parameters influencing pricing policies in the Mediterranean region: The Italian context, 291 / Monica GROSSO, Ana-Rita LYNCE, Anne SILLA, Georgios K. VAGGELAS -- Relevant strategic criteria when choosing a container port - the case of the port of Genoa, 299 / Monica Grosso, Feliciana Monteiro -- Determination of optimum fleet size and composition - A case study of retailer in Thailand, 307 / Terdsak RONGVIRIYAPANICH and Kawee SRIMUANG -- New container port development: forecasting future container throughput, 313 / Dimitrios TSAMBOULAS, Panayota MORAITI -- Sea port hinterland flows and opening hours: the way forward to make them match better 319 / Marjan BEELEN, Hilde MEERSMAN, Evy ONGHENA, Eddy VAN DE VOORDE and Thierry VANELSLANDER -- International road freight transport in Germany and the Netherlands driver costs analysis and French perspectives, 327 / Laurent GUIHERY -- Chapter 12 Transport and Land Use, 335 -- Land rent and new transport infrastructure: How to manage this relationship?, 337 / Elena SCOPEL -- Effects of pavement characteristics on the traffic noise levels, 345 / Aybike ONGEL and John HARVEY -- Fuzzy medical waste disposal facility location problem, 351 / Yeşim KOP, Müjde EROL GENEVOIS and H. Ziya ULUKAN -- Chapter 13 T ransport Infrastructure and Investment Appraisal, 357 -- Agents’ behavior in financing Italian transport infrastructures, 359 / Paolo BERIA -- Free trade agreements in the mediterranean region: a box-cox analysis, 367 / Matthew KARLAFTIS, Konstantinos KEPAPTSOGLOU and Dimitrios TSAMBOULA

How to improve the innovation level of a country? A Bayesian net approach

This study aims to provide strategic guidelines to policy makers who are developing strategies to improve their country’s innovativeness. In this paper, we claim that innovation cannot be related only to some factors inherent in the environment of a country, nor is it a single entity to be managed without any linkages to the rest of the actors comprising the competitiveness of a country. Hence, a comprehensive study on innovation should cover the interaction between competitiveness indicators and innovation. For this purpose, the innovation performance of 148 countries is analyzed using an integrated cluster analysis and a Bayesian network framework. These countries are first clustered based on the average values of their competitiveness indicators representing 12 pillars and several sub-pillars adopted from the Global Competitiveness Reports of World Economic Forum for the 2009-2012 period. As a result, five appropriate clusters emerge: Leaders, Followers, Runners Up, Developing Ones, and Laggers. A factor analysis is then conducted to reveal the main characteristics of each cluster in terms of competitiveness indicators. Subsequently, a Bayesian network is constructed and sensitivity analyses are performed to reveal important policies for each cluster

International competitiveness power and human development of countries

Human development should be the ultimate objective of human activity and its aim should be healthier, longer, and fuller lives. It is expected that if the competitiveness of a country is suitably managed, human welfare will be enhanced as a consequence. The research described here seeks to explore the relationship between the competitiveness of a country and its use for human development. For this purpose, 45 countries were evaluated using data envelopment analysis, where the global competitiveness indicators are taken as input variables and the human development index indicators as output variables. A detailed analysis is also conducted for the emerging economies

A decision support methodology to enhance the competitiveness of the Turkish automotive industry

This is the post-print (final draft post-refereeing) version of the article. Copyright @ 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.Three levels of competitiveness affect the success of business enterprises in a globally competitive environment: the competitiveness of the company, the competitiveness of the industry in which the company operates and the competitiveness of the country where the business is located. This study analyses the competitiveness of the automotive industry in association with the national competitiveness perspective using a methodology based on Bayesian Causal Networks. First, we structure the competitiveness problem of the automotive industry through a synthesis of expert knowledge in the light of the World Economic Forum’s competitiveness indicators. Second, we model the relationships among the variables identified in the problem structuring stage and analyse these relationships using a Bayesian Causal Network. Third, we develop policy suggestions under various scenarios to enhance the national competitive advantages of the automotive industry. We present an analysis of the Turkish automotive industry as a case study. It is possible to generalise the policy suggestions developed for the case of Turkish automotive industry to the automotive industries in other developing countries where country and industry competitiveness levels are similar to those of Turkey

Tüketici temelli marka değerinin finansal performans üzerine etkisi

Gerçekleştirilen çalışmada önemi artan (tüketici temelli) marka değeri konusu ve finansal performans üzerine etkileri incelenmiştir. Tüketici gözünde oluşan marka değerinin alt boyutlarıyla ortaya konularak, bu boyutların şirkete somut finansal katkıları olup olmadığı ve katkı şekilleri Türkiye menşeli firmalar için analiz edilmiştir. Yöntem olarak çalışma, Türkiye’de tüketici temelli marka değerinin (brand equity) bir anket çalışmasından elde edilecek veriler ile belirlenmesi, firmaların finansal performansının halka açık finansal tablolardan elde edilmesi ve bu iki veri grubu arasında istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir ilişki bulunup bulunmadığının detaylı olarak analizi ve yorumlanması şeklindedir. Tüketici temelli firma gücünün (değerinin) ölçümünde pazarlama literatüründe genel kabul gören Aaker (1991)’in önerdiği boyutlar üzerine geliştirilen çok boyutlu bir model kullanılmıştır. Aaker’in önerdiği ve çalışma içerisinde kullanılan boyutlar marka farkındalığı, algılanan kalite, marka sadakati ve marka çağrışımları olarak sıralanabilir. Bu boyutların ölçümü için geçtiğimiz yıllar içerisinde uluslararası literatürde yer alan çalışmalarda kullanılarak geçerliliği test edilmiş ölçeklerden faydalanılmıştır. Bu ölçeklerde yer alan ölçüm soruları Türkçe’ye ve Türkiye şartlarına uyarlanarak, uzman görüşleri ve pilot çalışma doğrultusunda yapılan ekleme ve değişiklikler sonucunda nihai haline getirilmiştir. Firmaların finansal performanslarının karşılaştırılabilmesi için uluslararası kabul görmüş çeşitli finansal performans göstergelerinden faydalanılmıştır. Finansal performans göstergelerinin her bir firma için değerini hesap etmekte İstanbul Menkul Kıymetler Borsası vasıtasıyla elde edilen halka açık finansal tablolar kullanılmıştır. Anahtar Kelimeler: Tüketici temelli marka değeri, marka ederi, marka sermayesi, finansal performans.This study analyzes the brand and brand equity concepts and the financial performance that is expected to be improved as a result of branding activities and brand equity. This study is carried out to understand whether the consumer based brand equity affect the firms' financial performance and the degree and type of the relationship between these if there is a significant correlation is available.In the analysis stage, the consumer based brand equity's dimensions are revealed for companies from different business sectors in Turkey and these are compared with the financial performance indicators to understand whether a statistically significant relation is visible. The methodology used may be summarized as follows: the determination of the consumer based brand equity for each firm in the study by a field study (questionnaire), the acquirement of the financial data from Istanbul Stock Exchange, calculation of related variables and factors, the detailed analysis of the consumer based data and financial data together to understand the relationships between them and finally the interpretation of the results.The model used in the determination and measurement of the consumer based brand equity in this study is fundamentally based on the model proposed by Aaker (1991) and the scale developed by Yoo and Donthu (2001). The consumer based brand equity dimensions proposed by Aaker are; "Brand awareness", "Perceived quality", "Brand loyalty", and "Brand associations". The data needed for comparing the consumer based brand equity dimensions among the firms are obtained using a questionnaire, which is applied with face-to-face interview in Istanbul to 505 subjects. The scale used for measuring these dimensions is based on popular and verified scales referenced in international literature. The questions in the mentioned scales (Yoo and Donthu, 2001; Bruner and Hensel, 2001; Bearden and Netemeyer, 1999) are translated to Turkish and are modified to give the same meaning and feeling, moreover some questions were omitted and new ones are added in the light of a pilot study and expert opinions. The companies and brand that are included in this study are selected using the following criteria: publicly listed companies (to be able to have audited and comparable financial performance data), companies with a family brand (to be able to use the firm's financial data as the brand's data), not operating in the financial services sector (as the performance indicators are different in this sector). A total of 28 firms are included in the study. The questionnaire is structured to include; brand experience, category knowledge, consumer based brand equity dimensions (perceived quality, brand awareness, brand associations and brand loyalty), attitude towards brand, purchase intention, demographical and socio-economic-status questions. The internationally accepted financial ratios used in the study for comparison of financial performance between the firms may be listed as: Annual return on shares, Firm Value / Market Value, Price / Earnings, Price / Net Sales per share, EBITDA / Net Sales, Return on Assets, Operational Profit, Net Sales, Market Value, Financial Leverage Ratio, Current Ratio, and Annual Change in Net Sales. The balance sheets, income statements and related annotations that are publicly available through the Istanbul Stock Exchange for years 2007 and 2006 are used as data in calculating the aforementioned financial performance measures for the companies included in the study. The data obtained through questionnaires and from publicly available financials are processed and analyzed. An explanatory factor analysis is carried out to derive the brand equity dimensions from the questionnaire. Three different factors are obtained as a result of the factor analysis. These three factors of the brand equity are then used as the independent variables in the regression analysis with the financial performance measures, which are entered as dependent variables. As an outcome of the statistical analysis conducted, it has been seen that the consumer based brand equity positively affects most of the financial performance indicators to varying extents. Keywords: Consumer based brand equity, financial performance

İstanbul`da itfaiye istasyonu yerlerinin seçimi için yeni bir model - Fire station location selection for Istanbul

This Article is in Turkish and can be accessed from the link below.Özellikle acil hizmetler veren polis, hastane, itfaiye gibi kurumlar için yer seçimi büyük önem taşımaktadır. Uygun bir yer seçimi gerçekleştirilmediği takdirde bunun sonuçları insan hayatını tehlikeye atabilir niteliktedir. İstanbul gibi büyük metropollerde, artan nüfus ve trafik yoğunluğunun yanı sıra bir de metropolün deprem kuşağında olması durumunda, itfaiye araçlarının olay yerine en hızlı şekilde ulaşması hayati önem taşımakta; bu da itfaiye istasyonu yerinin etkin seçimine kritik bir rol yüklemektedir. Bu çalışma; İstanbul Büyükşehir Belediyesi tarafından kararlaştırıldığı gibi, itfaiye teşkilatının her bölgeye en çok beş dakikada erişebilmesi ve kapsama alanının %100 olması hedeflenerek yeni kurulacak olan itfaiye istasyonlarının küme kapsama modeli yardımıyla konumlandırılmasını içermektedir. Bu amaçla bir tamsayı programlama modeli kurulmuş, coğrafi bilgi sistemlerinden elde edilen verilerle model çözülmüş, seçilen yerler için itfaiye kurulması durumunda yangın hizmet düzeyinin değişimi incelenmiştir. - For emergency services such as ambulance systems and fire departments, location selection plays a critical role due to the direct impact of these services on human lives. Timeliness plays a primary role in location selection decision of fire stations for large metropolitan cities such as Istanbul with increasing population with a high level of congestion coupled with an imminent earthquake risk. This study is based on a set-covering model for locating new fire stations, which target to serve each area at most in five minutes and improve their coverage area to 100% for Istanbul Municipality Fire Department. Accordingly, a set-covering model is built and solved using the data retrieved from geographical information systems. Finally the change in service level with proposed fire station locations is investigated and further suggestions are provided