An empirical investigation of the relationship between the real economy and stock returns for the United States

This is the post-print version of the final paper published in the Journal of Policy Modeling. The published article is available from the link below. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. Copyright @ 2009 Elsevier B.V.US asset prices are modelled in the short- and long-run with the use of a seemingly unrelated system using monthly data over the time period, 1983–2004. Once the shocks of 1987, 1997 and post-“9·11” have been accounted for, then volatility only affects the consumption and inflation equations. In the long run excess returns and inflation are driven by consumption growth. Money growth impacts excess returns and inflation via consumption. Income is super exogenous implying that policy can be made conditional on this variable and that in the long run investors are primarily concerned with income growth

Against Explanatory Minimalism in Psychiatry

The idea that psychiatry contains, in principle, a series of levels of explanation has been criticised both as empirically false but also, by Campbell, as unintelligible because it presupposes a discredited pre-Humean view of causation. Campbell’s criticism is based on an interventionist-inspired denial that mechanisms and rational connections underpin physical and mental causation respectively and hence underpin levels of explanation. These claims echo some superficially similar remarks in Wittgenstein’s Zettel. But attention to the context of Wittgenstein’s remarks suggests a reason to reject explanatory minimalism in psychiatry and reinstate a Wittgensteinian notion of level of explanation. Only in a context broader than the one provided by interventionism is the ascription of propositional attitudes, even in the puzzling case of delusions, justified. Such a view, informed by Wittgenstein, can reconcile the idea that the ascription mental phenomena presupposes a particular level of explanation with the rejection of an a priori claim about its connection to a neurological level of explanation

Exploring demographic and lifestyle associations with patient experience following telephone triage by a primary care doctor or nurse:secondary analyses from a cluster randomised controlled trial

The ESTEEM trial was a cluster randomised controlled trial that compared two telephone triage management systems (general practitioner (GP) or a nurse supported by computer decision support software) with usual care, in response to a request for same-day consultation in general practice

Employee Heterogeneity and Within-Firm Experience-Earnings Profiles: A Nonparametric Analysis

Abstract Motivated by a priori uncertainty with respect to the parametric specification of the earnings function, I model the earnings function as semiparametric partially linear model and follow the estimation approach described in Robinson (1988). Using data from the personnel records of a large major UK based financial sector employer, I let years of within-firm and pre-firm experience form the nonparametrically modelled component of the earnings function. It is shown that the estimated within-firm experience earnings profiles, which are conditional upon a given number years of pre-firm experience accumulated before entry, converge and even overtake as years of pre-firm experience increases. This result can be explained with the recognition of unobservable explanatory variables, such as the match and individual quality of the employees, both of which are a function of years of within- and pre-firm experience and wages

Recommendations to Improve GSP Labor Rights Criteria and Review Process

Testimony by Brian Campbell of ILRF to the Committee on Ways and Means, Sub-Committee on Trade, recommending the improvement of the generalized System of Preferences labor rights criteria

The Bernstein Center of a p-adic Unipotent Group

Francois Rodier proved that it is possible to view smooth representations of certain totally disconnected abelian groups (the underlying additive group of a finite-dimensional p-adic vector space, for example) as sheaves on the Pontryagin dual group. For nonabelian totally disconnected groups, the appropriate dual space necessarily includes representations which are not one-dimensional, and does not carry a group structure. The general definition of the topology on the dual space is technically unwieldy, so we provide three different characterizations of this topology for a large class of totally disconnected groups (which includes, for example, p-adic unipotent groups), each with a somewhat different flavor. We then use these results to demonstrate some formal similarities between smooth representations and sheaves on the dual space, including a concrete description of the Bernstein center of the category of smooth representations

A fisheries management plan for the River Tweed in the Scottish Borders

The River Tweed is, in rod-catch terms, the second most important river in Britain for Atlantic salmon, with an annual rod catch of ca.10,000 fish. This article gives an outline of the second edition of the Tweed Fisheries Management Plan, which is defined as "The co-ordination of data collection and analyses with fundamental research into relevant topics to devise management actions that will beneficially affect the future state of fish stocks". Much of the work set down for the present is concerned with setting up recording and measuring systems for fish catches and exploitation rates, and for the operation of monitoring sites for juvenile densities and adult trout and salmon spawning runs. While surveys show the present state of affairs, the collection of records and regular monitoring of sites will mean that in the future, the past will be better known through a longer series of records. Two case histories are described. The first is concerned with setting aims for managing the brown trout of the Tweed and defining the present state of the fishery. The second is an investigation into the spring salmon of the Tweed