Portfolio allocation: Getting the most out of realised volatility

Recent advances in the measurement of volatility have utilized high frequency intraday data to produce what are generally known as realised volatility estimates. It has been shown that forecasts generated from such estimates are of positive economic value in the context of portfolio allocation. This paper considers the link between the value of such forecasts and the loss function under which models of realised volatility are estimated. It is found that employing a utility based estimation criteria is preferred over likelihood estimation, however a simple mean squared error criteria performs in a similar manner. These findings have obvious implications for the manner in which volatility models based on realised volatility are estimated when one wishes to inform the portfolio allocation decision.Volatility, utility, portfolio allocation, realized volatility, MIDAS

Financialization, Crisis and Commodity Correlation Dynamics

We study bi-variate conditional volatility and correlation dynamics for individual commodity futures and financial assets from May 1990-July 2009 using DSTCC-GARCH (Silvennoinen and Terasvirta 2009). These models allow correlation to vary smoothly between extreme states via transition functions driven by indicators of market conditions. Expected stock volatility and money manager open interest in futures markets are relevant transition variables. Results point to increasing integration between commodities and financial markets. Higher commodity returns volatility is predicted by lower interest rates and corporate bond spreads, US dollar depreciations, higher expected stock volatility and financial traders open positions. We observe higher and more variable correlations between commodity futures and financial asset returns, particularly from mid-sample, often predicted by higher expected stock volatility. For many pairings, we observe a structural break in the conditional correlation processes from the late 1990s.commodity futures; double smooth transition; conditional correlation; financialization

Parameterizing Unconditional Skewness in Models for Financial Time Series

In this paper we consider the third-moment structure of a class of nonlinear time series models. Empirically it is often found that the marginal distribution of financial time series is skewed. Therefore it is of importance to know what properties a model should possess if it is to accommodate for unconditional skewness. We consider modelling the unconditional mean and variance using models which respond nonlinearly or asymmetrically to shocks. We investigate the implications these models have on the third moment structure of the marginal distribution and different conditions under which the unconditional distribution exhibits skewness as well as nonzero third-order autocovariance structure. With this respect, the asymmetric or nonlinear specification of the conditional mean is found to be of greater importance than the properties of the conditional variance. Several examples are discussed and, whenever possible, explicit analytical expressions are provided for all third order moments and cross-moments. Finally, we introduce a new tool, shock impact curve, that can be used to investigate the impact of shocks on the conditional mean squared error of the return.asymmetry; GARCH; nonlinearity; stock impact curve; time series; unconditional skewness

PAIKALLISJOURNALISMI JA SOSIAALINEN MEDIA : Mikä on sosiaalisen median rooli paikallislehdessä?

Tutkielman tavoite on tarkastella, mikä on sosiaalisen median rooli paikallisjournalismissa. Tutkielma selventää sosiaalisen median ja journalismin nykyistä suhdetta niin sanomalehtien kuin toimittajien näkökulmasta. Aihetta käsitellään suomalaisten, ja erityisesti nuorten, mediankäytön kannalta. Aiheen valintaan vaikuttivat tekijän henkilökohtaiset kokemukset työstä paikallislehdessä ja vahva kiinnostus sosiaaliseen mediaan. Opinnäytetyön tietoperusta koostuu paikallisjournalismia ja sosiaalista mediaa käsittelevästä kirjallisuudesta ja verkkolähteistä sekä tutkimuksista, artikkeleista, tutkielmista ja Digisilta- ja Lokkaali-hankkeiden julkaisuista. Lisäksi tietoperustaan kuuluu nuoria käsitteleviä tutkimuksia, verkkolähteitä ja tutkielmia. Tutkimusmenetelmänä on käytetty laadullista eli kvalitatiivista aineistonhankintamenetelmää, jonka avulla pyritään ymmärtämään yksilön tai ryhmän toimintaa ihmisten niille antamien merkitysten eli laatujen avulla. Tutkimushaastattelussa kartoitettiin sosiaalisen median käytön nykytilaa sekä päätoimittajien kokemuksia esimerkiksi siitä, miten sosiaalista mediaa hyödynnetään. Haastattelukutsu lähettiin sähköpostitse 16 päätoimittajalle, jotka työskentelevät paikallislehdessä Pohjois-Pohjanmaalla. Tutkimusaineisto kerättiin lokakuussa 2015, ja siihen vastasi kahdeksan päätoimittajaa. Tutkimuksen analysoinnissa käytetään sisällönanalyysiä, jossa aineistoa tarkastellaan eritellen, yhtäläisyyksiä ja eroja etsien ja tiivistäen. Tutkimus ja sen pohjalta tehdyt johtopäätökset antavat osviittaa, minkälainen rooli sosiaalisella medialla on tai voisi olla paikallislehtien toiminnassa. Keskeisin tulos on, että paikallislehtien resurssit eivät riitä aktiivisuuteen sosiaalisessa mediassa. Yleinen haaste on ajanpuute ja laitteiston vanhanaikaisuus. Myös osaamisen puute on ongelma. Tulosten perusteella Facebook on paikallislehtien ykköskanava, ja lehdet käyttävät hyvin vähän muita sosiaalisen median kanavia. Yleisö ja etenkin nuoret ovat sosiaalisessa mediassa ja siksi on tärkeää, että uutismedia on läsnä siellä, missä yleisö osallistuu aktiivisesti. Yleisö ei ole enää passiivinen vastaanottaja, vaan aktiivinen osallistuja Suunnitelmallisuus, nykyaikaiset työvälineet, innostuminen ja kannustaminen madaltavat sosiaalisen median kynnystä.The goal of this thesis was to examine what is the role of social media in local journalism. Thesis clarifies the current situation of social media and journalism from many perspectives, such as local newspapers, journalists and Finnish people, particular the young people. Choosing the subject was affected the author's personal work experience in a local newspaper and a strong interest in social media. The data base of the thesis consists literature about local journalism and social media, web sources, studies, articles, thesis and publications of Digisilta and Lokkaali projects. The knowledge base also includes studies, online resources and studies about young people in Finland. The research method used in this thesis was qualitative data acquisition method. The study was carried out by an electronic inquiry. Invitation to the inquiry was sent by email to the sixteen editor-in-chief, who works in local newspaper in Northern Ostrobothnia. Eight out of sixteen responded. The data were collected in October 2015 and it was analyzed by the content analysis method. Research, and conclusions based on it, give an indication of what role social media has or could have in local newspapers. The main result is that local newspapers don’t have enough resources to be active in social media. The overall challenge is the lack of time and old-fashioned devices. Also the lack of skills is a problem. Based on the results Facebook is the number one for local newspapers and they rarely use other social media channels. The public, especially young people, are in the social media and therefore it is important that the news media is also presented there where the audience participates actively. The audience is no longer a passive recipient, but an active participant. Planning, modern tools, enthusiasm and encouragement sets the threshold lower for active use of social media

"Home, Religion, Fatherland" : Movements of the Radical Right in Finland

This article charts the history of fascism in Finland and looks for the causes of its failure. Like most of its European contemporaries, Finnish nationalism was radicalized in similar processes which produced successful fascist movements elsewhere. After the end of the Great War, Finnish nationalists were engaged first in a bitter civil war, and then in a number of Freikorps-style attempts to expand the borders of the newly-made Finnish state. Like elsewhere, these experiences produced a generation of frustrated and embittered, radicalized nationalists to serve as the cadre of Finnish fascist movements. The article concentrates on the Lapua movement, in which fascist influences and individuals were in a prominent position, even though the movement publicly adopted a predominantly conservative anti-communist outlook centred on the values of home, religion and fatherland.Peer reviewe

Forecasting multivariate volatility in larger dimensions: some practical issues

The importance of covariance modelling has long been recognised in the field of portfolio management and large dimensional multivariate problems are increasingly becoming the focus of research. This paper provides a straightforward and commonsense approach toward investigating whether simpler moving average based correlation forecasting methods have equal predictive accuracy as their more complex multivariate GARCH counterparts for large dimensional problems. We find simpler forecasting techniques do provide equal (and often superior) predictive accuracy in a minimum variance sense. A portfolio allocation problem is used to compare forecasting methods. The global minimum variance portfolio and Model Confidence Set (Hansen, Lunde, and Nason (2003)) are used to compare methods, whilst portfolio weight stability and computational time are also considered.Volatility, multivariate GARCH, portfolio allocation

Environmentally friendly forest industry? : Motives and strategies for environmental responsibility

Environmental responsibility has become a major part of companies’ corporate social responsibility (CSR) functions and its’ role has been growing especially during the past decade. Reasons for the development include public concern for the environment caused by global warming and other environmental threats. Due to the nature of its’ operations, forest industry has been facing intense pressure for environmental responsibility and has been developing the business into a more sustainable direction. Thus, the purpose of the research is to study the environmental responsibility approaches of forest industry multinational enterprises (MNEs). The purpose is further divided into three sub-objectives: • What is the role of environmental responsibility in the forest industry? • What motives do forest industry MNEs have for environmental responsibility? • What environmental strategies forest industry MNEs apply? The research was conducted as a qualitative interview study by interviewing three environmental responsibility specialists from two forest industry MNEs, three environmental responsibility consultants and two local stakeholders on environmental issues related to forest industry in order to get a broad perspective on the current state of the topic. In addition to the interview data, secondary data sources were used to complement the data. The findings of the research suggest that environmental responsibility has a special role in the forest industry and a lot of attention is paid to certain issues, such as environmental reporting and material and energy efficiency. Forest industry companies have various motives for implementing environmental responsibility, including environmental values, stakeholder pressures, and hopes for increased performance, which can be simultaneous and lead to proactive or reactive environmental strategies. The study indicates that even though environmental values have been gaining more foothold in corporate decision-making, stakeholder pressure is the most influential driver for environmental responsibility in the forest industry, followed by performance-driven motives emphasizing the importance of cost savings. In addition, the environmental responsibility strategies of forest industry MNEs seem to be combinations of reactive and proactive approaches, implying that some environmental issues are more proactively handled than others. Furthermore, sustainability communication is an important tool for proactive companies, whereas a reactive strategy does not put much effort into communication. Both stakeholder- and value-driven motives are driving forest industry MNEs towards proactive environmental actions, whereas the lack of stakeholder pressures and mere performance-driven motives can be associated with a more reactive approach

Burden of Influenza in Children

Background: Most children with influenza are treated as outpatients but, especially among young children, influenza-attributable illnesses often result in hospitalization. However, relatively scarce data exist on the clinical picture and the full disease burden of pediatric influenza. Prompt diagnosis of influenza could enable the institution of antiviral therapy and adequate cohorting of patients. Data are needed to help clinicians correctly suspect influenza at the time of hospital admission. Aims and methods: We conducted a prospective 2-year cohort study of respiratory infections in children aged ≤13 years to determine the incidence of influenza in outpatient children and to assess the clinical presentation of influenza in various age groups seen in primary care. We also determined the rates of different complications attributable to influenza and the absenteeism of the children and their parents due to the child’s influenza infection. We then conducted a further 16-year retrospective study of children ≤16 years of age, hospitalized with virologically confirmed influenza. We estimated the population-based rates of hospitalizations and determined the primary admission diagnoses of the hospitalized children in different age groups. Results: The average annual rate of influenza was highest (179 / 1000) among children <3 years old. In this age group, acute otitis media was diagnosed as a complication of influenza in 40% of children. High fever was the most prominent sign of influenza, and 20% of children <3 years of age had a fever ≥40oC. Most children had rhinitis already during the first days of the illness. The average annual incidence of influenzarelated hospitalization was highest (276 / 100,000) among infants <6 months of age, of whom 52% were primarily admitted due to sepsis-like illnesses. Respiratory symptoms accounted for 38% of the hospitalizations. Conclusions: Influenza causes a substantial burden of illness on outpatient children and their families. The clinical presentation of influenza is most severe in children <3 years of age. The high incidence of influenza-associated hospitalizations among infants aged <6 months calls for more effective ways to prevent influenza in this age group. The clinical manifestations of influenza vary widely in different age groups of children at the time of hospital admission. Awareness of this phenomenon is important for the early recognition of the illness and the potential initiation of effective antiviral treatment of these patients.Influenssan lapsille aiheuttama tautitaakka Tausta: Vaikka suurin osa influenssaa sairastavista lapsista hoidetaan avohoidossa, erityisesti pikkulapset joutuvat influenssan vuoksi usein sairaalahoitoon. Influenssan kliinisestä kuvasta ja kokonaistautitaakasta lapsipotilailla on kuitenkin olemassa suhteellisen vähän tutkimustietoa. Influenssan nopea tunnistaminen mahdollistaisi niin viruslääkehoidon aloittamisen ajoissa kuin sairaalapotilaiden oikeanlaisen sijoittelun. Influenssan varhaisesta oirekuvasta sairaalahoitoa tarvitsevilla lapsilla tarvitaan lisää tutkimustietoa. Tavoitteet ja menetelmät: Selvitimme kaksivuotisessa seurantatutkimuksessa ≤13-vuotiaiden lasten sairastuvuutta influenssaan sekä influenssan kliinistä taudinkuvaa eri-ikäisillä avohoidossa hoidettavilla lapsilla. Tutkimme myös influenssan aiheuttamien komplikaatioiden sekä taudista aiheutuvien lasten ja heidän vanhempiensa poissaolojen esiintyvyyttä. Retrospektiivisen, väestöpohjaisen tutkimuksen avulla selvitimme ≤16-vuotiaiden lasten influenssasta johtuvia sairaalahoitoja 16 vuoden seurantajakson aikana. Selvitimme niin influenssaan liittyvien sairaalahoitojen esiintyvyyttä kuin influenssan oirekuvaa sairaalaan tulovaiheessa eri ikäryhmissä. Tulokset: Influenssan ilmaantuvuus oli suurinta (179/1000 lasta) alle 3-vuotiaiden ryhmässä. Akuutti välikorvatulehdus todettiin tässä ikäryhmässä noin 40 %:lla influenssaan sairastuneista lapsista. Korkea kuume oli influenssan tyypillisin oire, ja 20 %:lla alle 3-vuotiaista lapsista kuumetta oli ≥40˚C. Suurimmalla osalla lapsista esiintyi nuhaa jo taudin ensipäivistä alkaen. Influenssan aiheuttamien sairaalahoitojen ilmaantuvuus oli suurinta alle 6 kuukauden ikäisillä lapsilla, joista 52 %:lla pääasiallinen sairaalaan joutumisen syy oli sepsisepäily. Hengitystieoireet olivat tärkein sairaalahoidon syy 38 %:lla influenssaan sairastuneista lapsista. Päätelmät: Influenssa aiheuttaa lapsille ja heidän perheilleen merkittävän tautitaakan. Influenssan kliininen kuva on vakavin alle 3-vuotiailla lapsilla. Koska influenssan aiheuttamat sairaalahoidot ovat yleisimpiä alle 6 kuukauden ikäisillä lapsilla, influenssan ehkäisyyn tarvittaisiin tehokkaampia keinoja nimenomaan tässä ikäryhmässä. Influenssan oirekuvassa esiintyy suurta vaihtelua eri ikäryhmissä sairaalaan tulovaiheessa. Tämän huomioon ottaminen on tärkeää influenssan nopeaksi tunnistamiseksi ja mahdollisen viruslääkehoidon aloittamiseksi ajoissa.Siirretty Doriast

Nuoruusiän akuutti lymfaattinen leukemia ja sen myöhäisvaikutukset : Kuvaileva kirjallisuuskatsaus

Opinnäytetyössä selvitettiin millaisia erilaisia myöhäisvaikutuksia nuorena sairastettu akuutti lymfaattinen leukemia (ALL) voi tulevaisuudessa aiheuttaa, sekä tarkasteltiin nuorena sairastetun pitkäaikaissairauden erityispiirteitä. Työssä keskityttiin akuutin ALL:n taudinkuvaan sen ollessa nuorten yleisin syöpä. Nuorella tarkoitettiin 13-17- vuotiasta henkilöä. Tavoitteena oli lisätä tietoisuutta ALL:n myöhäisvaikutuksista sekä niiden esiintyvyydestä. Työ toteutettiin kirjallisuuskatsauksena integroivaa menetelmää hyödyntäen. Työssä käytettiin tuoreita tutkimuksia, ja niiden tuloksista koottiin yhteenvedot aihepiireittäin. Aineiston haussa käytettiin tunnettuja hakukoneita Pubmedia, Melindaa ja Mediciä. Tuloksista voidaan päätellä myöhäisvaikutusten olevan todella yleisiä pitkäaikaisselviytyjien joukossa. Yleisimmin raportoituja myöhäisvaikutuksia ovat sydän- ja verisuonisairaudet, hormonaaliset ongelmat, syövän uusiutuminen, neurologiset ongelmat ja tuki- ja liikuntaelinten sairaudet. Nuoruudessaan ALL:n sairastaneet ovat aikuisiällä keskimääräistä sairaampia kuin muut henkilöt. Pitkäaikaisselviytyjien keskuudessa korostuivat krooniset sairaudet. ALL:n hoidoista johtuvat myöhäisvaikutukset voivat ilmaantua jopa vuosien päästä hoitojen loppumisesta. Hoidot vaikuttavat eri tavalla elimistön toimintaan, ja sitä myötä aiheuttavat erilaisia muutoksia ja myöhäisvaikutuksia. Leukemian hoidot ovat suurempi terveysuhka nuorelle kuin aikuiselle, koska nuoren kehitys on vielä kesken ja alttiimpi hoitojen haittavaikutuksille. Tutkimuksia löytyi useampia samoista myöhäisvaikutuksista. Tutkimukset tukivat toisiaan ja korostivat myöhäisvaikutusten todellista riskiä. Koska pitkäaikaisselviytyjiä on vuosi vuodelta enemmän, myöhäisvaikutukset pitäisi toden teolla huomioida terveydenhuollossa. Säännölliset ja täsmälliset terveystarkastukset ALL:n sairastaneilla voisi kartoittaa ajoissa hoidoista aiheutuneet sairaudet.In this thesis it was examined what kind of post effects acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) may cause in the future and characteristics of long-term sickness in adolescence. Being the most common cancer among the youth this work focuses on ALL. This piece of work was carried out as a literature review by utilizing integrative method. This work used up-to-date researches and from the results the summaries were combined. Well-known search engines Pubmed, Melinda and Medic were used in research. From results it can concluded that post effects are especially common among long-term survivors. Cardiac and vascular diseases, hormonal problems, regeneration of the cancer, neurological issues and musculoskeletal diseases are the most commonly reported post effects. Former ALL patients in adolescence are more likely to get sick on average than others. Chronic diseases were highlighted among long-term survivors. Post effects due to ALL treatments can appear as late as years after the end of the treatments. Treatments affect bodily functions differently and cause variable changes and post effects. Due to the development of adolescent being still in progress and minors being more vulnerable to adverse effects of the treatment, ALL treatment presents a bigger hazard to a minor compared to an adult. Several researches about same post effects were found. The researches supported each other’s and highlighted the real risk of post effects. Because the amount of long-term survivors increases every year the post effects should be taken on account in health care. Regular and punctual physicals among the ALL survivors could expose diseases caused by the treatments in time