Modelling the hydrological impacts of climate change on UK lowland wet grassland

Hydrological impacts of climate change upon the Elmley Marshes, southeast England, are simulated using a coupled hydrological/hydraulic model developed using MIKE SHE/MIKE 11 and calibrated to contemporary conditions. Predicted changes in precipitation, temperature, radiation and wind speed from the UK Climate Impacts Programme associated with four emissions scenarios for the 2050s are used to modify precipitation and potential evapotranspiration data. For each emissions scenario two sets of potential evapotranspiration data are derived, one using changes in temperature (PETtemp), the other incorporating changes in temperature, radiation and wind speed (PETtrws). Results indicate drier conditions through the progressively higher emissions scenarios when compared to contemporary conditions. Changes are particularly pronounced when using PETtrws. Summer water tables are lower (PETtemp 0.01�0.08 m; PETtrws 0.07�0.27 m) and the duration of high winter water tables is reduced. Although water tables still intercept the surface in winter when using PETtemp, this ceases when PETtrws is employed. Summer ditch water levels for the PETtemp scenarios are lower (0.01�0.21 m) and in dry winters they do not reach mean field level. Under the PETtrws scenarios summer and winter ditch water levels are lower by on average 0.21 and 0.30 m, respectively. Levels never reach the elevation of the marsh surface. Lower groundwater and ditch water levels result in declines in the magnitude and duration of surface inundation which is virtually eliminated with the PETtrws scenarios. The changes in hydrological conditions simulated by the model are of sufficiently fine resolution to infer ecological impacts which are likely to include the loss of some grassland species adapted to high water tables. Reductions in the extent of surface water in spring, especially for the PETtrws scenarios, are likely to reduce suitability for wading birds including lapwing (Vanellus vanellus) and redshank (Tringa totanus) for which the marshes are internationally renowned

International Frameworks Dealing with Human Risk Assessment of Combined Exposure to Multiple Chemicals

The development of harmonised terminology and frameworks for the human risk assessment of combined exposure to multiple chemicals (“chemical mixtures”) is an important area for EFSA and a number of activities have already been undertaken, i.e. in the fields of pesticides and contaminants. The first step prior to a risk assessment of combined exposure to multiple chemicals is problem formulation defining the relevant exposure, hazard and population to be considered. In practice, risk assessment of multiple chemicals is conducted using a tiered approach for exposure assessment, hazard assessment and risk characterisation. Higher tiers require increasing knowledge about the group of chemicals under assessment and the tiers can range from tier 0 (default values, data poor situation) to tier 3 (full probabilistic models). This scientific report reviews the terminology, methodologies and frameworks developed by national and international agencies for the human risk assessment of combined exposure to multiple chemicals and provides recommendations for future activities at EFSA in this area

Abdominal aortic aneurysm is associated with a variant in low-density lipoprotein receptor-related protein 1

Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) is a common cause of morbidity and mortality and has a significant heritability. We carried out a genome-wide association discovery study of 1866 patients with AAA and 5435 controls and replication of promising signals (lead SNP with a p value < 1 × 10-5) in 2871 additional cases and 32,687 controls and performed further follow-up in 1491 AAA and 11,060 controls. In the discovery study, nine loci demonstrated association with AAA (p < 1 × 10-5). In the replication sample, the lead SNP at one of these loci, rs1466535, located within intron 1 of low-density-lipoprotein receptor-related protein 1 (LRP1) demonstrated significant association (p = 0.0042). We confirmed the association of rs1466535 and AAA in our follow-up study (p = 0.035). In a combined analysis (6228 AAA and 49182 controls), rs1466535 had a consistent effect size and direction in all sample sets (combined p = 4.52 × 10-10, odds ratio 1.15 [1.10-1.21]). No associations were seen for either rs1466535 or the 12q13.3 locus in independent association studies of coronary artery disease, blood pressure, diabetes, or hyperlipidaemia, suggesting that this locus is specific to AAA. Gene-expression studies demonstrated a trend toward increased LRP1 expression for the rs1466535 CC genotype in arterial tissues; there was a significant (p = 0.029) 1.19-fold (1.04-1.36) increase in LRP1 expression in CC homozygotes compared to TT homozygotes in aortic adventitia. Functional studies demonstrated that rs1466535 might alter a SREBP-1 binding site and influence enhancer activity at the locus. In conclusion, this study has identified a biologically plausible genetic variant associated specifically with AAA, and we suggest that this variant has a possible functional role in LRP1 expression

Modeling of Microdevices for SAW-Based Acoustophoresis — A Study of Boundary Conditions

We present a finite-element method modeling of acoustophoretic devices consisting of a single, long, straight, water-filled microchannel surrounded by an elastic wall of either borosilicate glass (pyrex) or the elastomer polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) and placed on top of a piezoelectric transducer that actuates the device by surface acoustic waves (SAW). We compare the resulting acoustic fields in these full solid-fluid models with those obtained in reduced fluid models comprising of only a water domain with simplified, approximate boundary conditions representing the surrounding solids. The reduced models are found to only approximate the acoustically hard pyrex systems to a limited degree for large wall thicknesses and but not very well for acoustically soft PDMS systems shorter than the PDMS damping length of 3 mm