Application of Machine Learning to Mortality Modeling and Forecasting

Estimation of future mortality rates still plays a central role among life insurers in pricing their products and managing longevity risk. In the literature on mortality modeling, a wide number of stochastic models have been proposed, most of them forecasting future mortality rates by extrapolating one or more latent factors. The abundance of proposed models shows that forecasting future mortality from historical trends is non-trivial. Following the idea proposed in Deprez et al. (2017), we use machine learning algorithms, able to catch patterns that are not commonly identifiable, to calibrate a parameter (the machine learning estimator), improving the goodness of fit of standard stochastic mortality models. The machine learning estimator is then forecasted according to the Lee-Carter framework, allowing one to obtain a higher forecasting quality of the standard stochastic models. Out-of sample forecasts are provided to verify the model accuracy

I fiori di Innsbruck: Lorenzo Lippi e Pietro Andrea Mattioli

Grazie al riconoscimento di un’edizione del celebre erbario di Pietro Andrea Mattioli (I Discorsi…, Venezia, 1573), che Lorenzo Lippi (1606-1664) ha puntualmente riprodotto alle spalle del San Cosma conservato al Museum of Art di New Orleans, è stato possibile formulare alcune ipotesi sul significato e sulla destinazione del dipinto. In particolare, analizzando i valori simbolici delle tre piante raffigurate (elicriso, stecade citrina, amaranto), come sono stati codificati da Pierio Valeriano prima, da Cesare Ripa e Giovanni Zaratino Castellini poi, si può ragionevolmente supporre che il quadro sia stato eseguito durante il soggiorno del pittore a Innsbruck (1643-1644), e che fosse destinato a celebrare la figura e l’opera dell’Arciduchessa Claudia de’ Medici, allora regnante sul Tirolo

Roman congregation ‘De propaganda fide’ and the double fidelity of the missionaries between colonial monarchies and pontifical universalism (17th century)

En la época de la expansión europea, las monarquías coloniales católicas organizaban incluso la actividad misionera en los territorios de su competencia según el sistema de patronato o de la protección del rey. Los misioneros estaban principalmente subordinados a la autoridad del rey. En el curso de los siglos XVI y XVII, los papas restauraron su autoridad spiritual universal en el mundo. La Congregación de Propaganda Fide fue fundada en 1622 con la jurisdiccion sobre sus misioneros, acordando ellos la facultad apostólica (poderes espirituales). Aunque no todas las órdenes religiosas aceptaron un control completo de su actividad (por ejemplo los jesuitas) de parte de Propaganda, después de 1622 los misioneros apostólicos , repartidos por los cuatro continentes, debían respetar, a menudo en al mismo tiempo, una doble lealtad a su rey y “nación” y al papa. Este texto examina brevemente las estrategias de Propaganda para valorar la lealtad de los minioneros o para incrementar su fidelidad a Roma, y también las repsuestas, a menudo ambiguas, ofrecidas por los religiososIn the age of European expansion, catholic colonial monarchies organized the missionary effort in their territories according to the system of royal patronage or protection. Missionaries were mainly subject of the king’s authority. During the 16th 228 and 17th centuries, popes restored their universal spiritual authority over the world. The Congregation « de Propaganda Fide » (founded in 1622) was empowered to have jurisdiction on the missionaries, granting them the apostolic faculties (spiritual powers). Even if not every missionary orders accepted full control over their activities (e.g. the Jesuits) by Propaganda, after 1622 apostolic missionaries in the four continents had to respect, often simultaneously, a double loyalty to their monarchy or “nation” and to the pope. This paper examines briefly the strategies of Propaganda to evaluate the loyalty of missionaries or to enhance their fidelity to Rome and the responses, often ambiguous, offered by the religiou