A Theory of Child Protection against Kidnapping

This paper studies the microeconomics of child vulnerability to kidnapping in an environment where child protection is produced through a private effort, a public investment and a foreign aid. We first show that in absence of public investment and foreign aid, private investment in child protection may exhibit a vicious cycle of rising child's vulnerability, which justify public production of child safety resources on efficiency grounds. However, the introduction of a redistributive taxation to finance public investment may lead to a reduction of the global child protection, and then to an increase of the number of kidnapped children. In addition, richer families prefer private production of child safety resources to public production, while poorer families are in favour of public production. In this context, a foreign help is useful to deal with this disagreement. Nevertheless, foreign aid may raise an aid dependency. We then conclude that State and international organisms have a duty to assist households for building a protective environment. However, State's policy and foreign aid have to be chosen with care in order to avoid crowding out the parents' effort, and create an aid dependency.Child trafficking, child kidnapping, public policy, foreign aid, vulnerability

Innovation and Information Acquisition Under Time Inconsistency and Uncertainty

We propose to analyse the hyperbolic discounting preferences effect on the innovator's research investment decision. Investing in research allows him to acquire information, and then to reduce the uncertainty of the risks of his project. We find that whatever the innovator's preferences, that is hyperbolic or time-consistent, there exists a research investment constraint that limits the information acquisition. However, even if the information is free, while a time-consistent agent always acquires information, a hyperbolic agent may prefer staying ignorant. We also emphasize that hyperbolic discounting preferences induce and information precision constraint that leads the hyperbolic innovator to ignore the information whilethe time-consistent innovator gets it. Moreover, the possibility that the agent has a commitment power in the future strengthens this ignorance strategy. Finally, we investigate the impact of existing liability rules on the innovator's decision to acquire information.Innovation, information acquisition, uncertainty, self-control, time inconsistency, liability rules

Innovation and information acquisition under time inconsistency and uncertainty

This paper analyzes the impact of hyperbolic discounting preferences on theagent's information acquisition decision who wants to undertake a potentialdangerous activity for human health or the environment. We find that belowcertain discount rate threshold, an agent prefers ignoring information andcontinuing his project. On the other hand, above this threshold, it is optimal forhim to acquire information, and the investment for acquiring the information isincreasing with the discount rate. We then conclude that hyperbolic discountingpreferences limit the information acquisition. Moreover, we explain that the lackof self-control induced by hyperbolic discounting preferences also restraints theinformation acquisition. Finally, we analyze the efficiency of the strict liabilityrule and the negligence rule to motivate the agent to acquire information.Innovation, information acquisition, uncertainty, self-control, time inconsistency,liability rules

Swiss holacratic organizations’ strategies illustrated by their recruitment practices

The ability to respond quickly to an increasingly changing environment is nowadays an important business imperative for organizations. Hierarchical models are reaching their limits. With a shift towards agility coupled to new employee expectations for a meaningful occupational environment, self-managing models have developed worldwide over the last decade and are getting more managerial and scholarly attention. One of these new organizational models is Holacracy, where authority is decentralized, that dynamically updates and where changes sensed in the environment are rapidly processed. Switzerland is one of the countries with the highest relative (number 1) and absolute (number 4) number of organizations using Holacracy. In holacratic organisations where each individual has a high responsibility in fulfilling the company purpose and strategy, the recruitment process is expected to reflect more directly the company purpose and strategy than in hierarchical organisations. Through a qualitative analysis of the holacratic organizations in Switzerland, using the analysis of their digital resources and semi-structured interviews, it was possible to assess their recruiting strategy, practices and targeted candidate profiles. Among the main findings, we saw their recruiting strategies are closely related to their main strategies, and both are continuously adjusted according to tensions sensed in the environment. Another element is that most interviewed companies (small and medium) rely a lot on their network for recruiting. Lastly, we learned that individuals’ qualities like self-organization, eagerness to learn, standing up for yourself, communicating well with your peers, the ability to question oneself, and sometimes having past experience in self-management models, are among the characteristics likely to help a candidate enter and thrive in a Holacracy

People's perception and cost effectiveness of home confinement during an influenza pandemic evidence from the French case

Online firstIn France, home confinement is not a common preventive measure against an influenza pandemic, although it is used around the world. Based on a stated method approach, we analyze the attitude that the French would adopt if this measure were put in place. Next, we propose a cost–benefit analysis to discuss the cost-effectiveness of this measure. We find that over three-quarters of respondents report complying with home confinement. Their choice depends on their individual characteristics, the interaction they may have with an infected person and home confinement conditions, but not their experience with preventive measures. We find that behaviors such as sensitivity to certainty, selfishness and altruism emerge. As far as cost-effectiveness is concerned, our study shows that home confinement is a prevention path that should not be neglected and should even be prescribed.Bien que le confinement soit utilisé dans le monde entier comme mesure préventive contre une pandémie de grippe, en France, il n'est encore pas très employé. Nous analysons l'attitude que les Français adopteraient si cette mesure était mise en place. Ensuite, nous proposons une analyse pour discuter du rapport coût-efficacité de cette mesure. Nous obtenons que plus des trois quarts des répondants déclarent qu'ils se conformeraient au confinement. Leur choix dépend de leurs caractéristiques individuelles, de l'interaction qu'ils peuvent avoir avec une personne infectée et des conditions de confinement, mais pas de leur expérience des mesures préventives. Nous constatons que des comportements tels que la sensibilité à la certitude, l'égoïsme et l'altruisme émergent. En ce qui concerne le rapport coût-efficacité, notre étude montre que le confinement est une voie de prévention qui ne devrait pas être négligée et devrait même être prescrite

Manufacturing Doubt

In their persistent fight to affect regulation, firms have developed specific strategies to exploit scientific uncertainty. They have spent large amounts of money to generate and publicize favorable scientific findings, to discredit and downplay unfavorable ones and to shape the public’s perceptions through large-scale communication campaigns. We develop a new model to study the interplay between scientific uncertainty, firms’ communication and public policies. The government is benevolent but populist and maximizes social welfare as perceived by citizens. The industry can provide costly evidence that its activity is not harmful. Citizens incorrectly treat the industry’s information on par with scientific knowledge. We characterize the industry’s optimal communication policy. As scientists become increasingly convinced that the industrial activity is harmful, firms first devote more and more resources to reassure people. When scientists’ beliefs reach a critical threshold, however, the industry stops its efforts abruptly. We then study the impact of firms’ communication on scientific funding. A populist government may, perversely, want to support research to better allow firms to miscommunicate. Populist policies can entail significant welfare losses. Establishing an independent funding agency always reduces these losses and may lead to under- or over- investment in research with respect to the first-best

L’affaire Eugène Turpin

En 1891, dans la tourmente croissante des scandales politico-financiers et des tensions nationalistes, le chimiste français Eugène Turpin est accusé d’avoir vendu à l’Angleterre les secrets de la mélinite, explosif qu’il avait découvert puis cherché en vain à exploiter auprès du ministère de la Guerre dès 1885. Puisant à la source de l’actualité, Verne et Zola s’emparent successivement de cette affaire médiatique pour tisser le fil d’une nouvelle intrigue romanesque. Dans Face au Drapeau (189..

Bruk av værdata i statistiske modeller for varsling av snøskred ved Strynefjellsveien

En varslingsmodell har blitt utarbeidet for Sætreskardfjellet ved RV 15, Strynefjellsveien. Feltarbeid ble gjennomført vinteren 2002/03 der det ble logget snøtemperatur og gravd snøprofiler i ulike eksposisjoner og høydeintervaller. Snøen ble isoterm først i slutten av mars ved Fonnbu på 920 moh. Over 1000 moh. var det fortsatt temperaturer under 0 °C i hele snøpakka ved utgangen av mars. Snøprofilene ved Fonnbu viste store endringer mellom hver gang det ble gravd. Lagdelingen var vanskelig å kjenne igjen selv om snømengdene var stabile. I fjellsidene der profilene var mer spredt var det færre og mer homogene lag men likevel store forskjeller, både i snømengde hardhet og krystallform. Alle stabilitetstester som ble gravd gav få signaler om ustabile lag. Fraværet av skred indikerte at dette stemte, men så store variasjoner i snødekket gjør at en likevel ikke kan konkludere med at snødekket var stabilt over alt. Vær og skreddata fra NGI sin forskningsstasjon Fonnbu ble studert for vintrene 1989/90 til 1999/00. Det ble benyttet logistisk regresjon på datasettet som bestod av 25 skredobservasjoner og 105 kontrollhendelser. Dette er lite brukt i snøskredsammenheng tidligere. 17 ulike værfaktorer ble analysert. Tre modeller ble utarbeidet med ulikt antall faktorer. Den enkleste med kun to faktorer, 3-døgnsnedbør og maksimal vindkasthastighet siste døgn fikk akseptabel signifikanssannsynlighet (bedre enn 5 %). De to andre modeller gav for usikre verdier. Den enkleste modellen ble sammenlignet med nedbørsmodell basert på kumulativ sannsynlighetsfordeling av 3-døgnsnedbør. Korrelasjonen viste r2 på 0,82 og ved testing gjennom vinteren 1988/89 varslet begge modellene meget stor skredfare ved tre skred i Sætreskardfjellet. Det er likevel mange usikkerheter og muligheter til forbedring med en logistisk regresjonsmodell. Samtidig er det behov for mer data om snødekket og værdata fra løsneområdet

Does cow-calf-contact give prolonged puerperal anoestrus in NRF cows?

I denne fordypningsoppgaven har vi sett på avstand fra kalving til siste inseminering (KSI), antall insemineringer per påbegynte ku/kvige (videre omtalt som insemineringer per ku) brunstaktivitet og ovarieaktivitet hos en gruppe kyr som har hatt kontakt med kalven sin i ti uker etter kalving. Studiepopulasjonen bestod av 30 kyr fordelt på fire grupper, som gjennom fire ulike perioder var med i SUCCEED-forsøket på SHF. Vi har sammenlignet KSI og antall insemineringer per ku med to referansepopulasjoner, melkebesetningen på Senter for husdyrforsøk (SHF) og alle melkekubesetninger registrert i TINEs Kukontrollen (videre omtalt som landets melkebesetninger). KSI og antall insemineringer per ku ble hentet fra Kukontrollen. Brunstaktivitet ble vurdert ut frabrunstobservasjoner gjort av røktere og av to ulike aktivitetsmålere. Parallelt med dette ble kyrnes ovarier undersøkt ved rektal palpasjon og transrektal ultralydundersøkelse for å vurdere ovarieaktivitet. Det var forskjell i både KSI og antall insemineringer per ku mellom studiepopulasjonen og referansepopulasjonene. I begge tilfeller hadde studiepopulasjonen lavest tall, som vil si best verdi. Disse konkrete tallene, sammen med gode resultater på brunst- og ovarieobservasjonene, gjør at vi kan si at det ikke ser ut til at ku-kalv-kontakt har en negativ effekt på KSI, insemineringer per ku, brunstaktivitet og ovarieaktivitet. Det ser derfor ut til at ku-kalv-kontakt ikke gir forlenget puerperal anøstrus hos kyrne i denne studien