Construction of symmetry triangular fuzzy number procedure (STFNP) using statistical information for autoregressive forecasting

Single-point data are used for data collection. However, data collected by various data collection methods are often exposed to uncertainties that may affect the information presented by the quantitative results. This also causes the forecast model developed to be less precise because of the uncertainties contained in the input data. It is essential to describe the uncertainty in data to obtain a realistic result from data analysis. However, most studies focus on model uncertainty regardless of data uncertainty. The data processing carried out may not always take care of uncertainty. When uncertainties in the raw data are not sufficiently handled, this creates more errors that are included in the predicted model. Standard procedures are also very limited to be followed in order to transform a single-point value into Triangular Fuzzy Number (TFN), which addresses the uncertainty. Thus, the data preparation procedure of Symmetry Triangular Fuzzy Number (STFN) is presented in this study to build an improved autoregressive model for time series forecasting. This study presents the proposed Symmetry Triangular Fuzzy Number Procedure (STFNP) using percentage error method and standard deviation method for first-order autoregressive forecasting. Percentage error rate method involves three different percentage rates, while the second method uses the standard deviation of the data. Simulations and verification procedures are presented and are accompanied with numerical examples using actual datasets of Air Pollutant Index and stock markets of selected ASEAN countries. This study reveals that the percentage error and standard deviation methods, which were used to construct the TFN, can achieve the same or better accuracy as compared to a single-point procedure. The results of the simulations and experiments show that the standard deviation method produces better results compared to the other proposed approaches and the conventional approach. Besides, the systematic procedure to construct the TFN does not deviate from single-point procedures. Importantly, uncertain data being treated avoids more uncertainties that would have been brought to the outcome of the forecast model and consequently improves prediction accuracy

Becoming more human: a phenomenological exploration of embodied emotional awareness in psychotherapy

This heuristic phenomenological research explores the lived experience of embodied emotional awareness in psychotherapy and counselling psychology. The research springs from an embodied perspective of considering all human experiences holistically. It is an embodied research designed and conducted so it gathers data in an embodied way, and attends to the relationship between knowledge and experience, to share a more embodied way of being where understanding and feeling, self and other, inner and outer, head and heart, are intrinsically intertwined. Heuristic research (Moustakas, 1990) along with the researcher’s self-inquiry are guiding the study. Additionally, the experience of seven participants is explored with in-depth semi-structured interviews and a research process of reflexive embodied empathy (Finlay, 2005). The analysis using Moustakas’s (1990) seven stages of heuristic research reveals five major themes: embodiment is a process, being is feeling, disembodied being, multidimensional being, and relational connection points. The findings show the important and multidimensional connection between the body, emotions and awareness within psychotherapy: the therapist can feel themselves and the client, connect with the client, be aware of the two, discern between the two, choose what to bracket or what to focus on, and choose attitude and action. This research identifies embodied emotional awareness as a way of being where we simultaneously allow ourselves to feel everything in the present moment while staying aware of feeling. It also reveals that embodied emotional awareness is merely one aspect of embodiment, which is a process of integrating the multidimensionality of our whole being and bringing awareness into it. Embodied emotional awareness seems to be contagious; when we become more embodied it has a rippling effect on others. The implication for psychotherapy and counselling psychology is that they need to reintegrate the body into its core practice and training, and as psychotherapists become more embodied, this gets transmitted and supports the clients to become more embodied. Heuristic research is experienced as a multidimensional interactive and synchronistic process of embodiment, intimately intertwined with the researcher’s life

Molecular Characterization of Clinical Isolates of Enteropathogenic Escherichia Coli from Miri Sarawak

A total of thirty two strains of clinical enteropathogenic Escherichia coli (EPEC) isolated from Hospital Miri, Sarawak were examined and further characterized by various molecular techniques. These techniques include the plasmid profiling, antimicrobial resistance, resistance and virulence genes detection by multiplex PCR, RAPD, ERIC and PFGE genomic fingerprinting. All the strains studied were found to exhibit multiple antibiotics resistance patterns to twelve antibiotics [penicillin (100%), teicoplanin (100%), vancomycin (100%), bacitrasin (97%), methicillin (97%), erythromycin (69%), ampicillin (63%), cephalothin (47%), streptomycin (25%), chloramphenicol (16%), kanamycin (6%) and nalidixic acid (3%)] used. Thirteen EPEC isolates were shown to encode ampicillin resistance by means of the blaTEM gene respectively, and none of the EPEC isolates showed the presence of the sipB/C, cmlA/tetR and blaPSE-1 genes. The plasmid profiles obtained ranged in size from 1.8 MDa to 57 MDa. Two types of specific primer encoding the Shiga-like Toxin gene, the SLTII (584 bp) gene and SLTI (348 bp) were utilized in the multiplex PCR assay. Analysis carried out demonstrated that all were positive for the presence of the SLTII and SLTI gene. Two EPEC isolates analysed by PCR were confirmed to be the O157:H7 serogroup as determined by agglutination tests with specific antisera. Three 50% G+C contents 10-mer random primers, the Gen 1-50-02 (5’- CCAAACTGCT-3’), Gen 1-50-08 (5’-GAGATGACGA-3’), and Gen1-50-09 (5’- TCGCTATCTC-3’) were chosen after screening through ten random primers. In PFGE technique carried out, two kinds of restriction enzymes, the SpeI (5’-A CTAGT-3’) and XbaI (5’- T CTAGA-3’) were used to check for the in-situ DNA digestion pattern due to their inherit advantages of the short sequence of these enzymes. Both the RAPD polymorphism pattern and PFGE profile obtained showed a significant discriminatory fingerprinting among the 32 isolates under studied. A respective dendrogram was constructed from the binary data matrix obtained from the RAPD, ERIC and PFGE fingerprints to compare the diversity relationship among the 32 isolates. All the dendrograms were constructed utilizing the RAPDistance software package based on the data retrieved from the presence or absence of banding pattern. All the three molecular techniques of RAPD-, ERIC-, and PFGE genotyping showed a significant correlation whereby the first 16 and the second 16 strains of EPEC used in this study showed a closer relationship in the respective cluster groups as shown in the constructed dendrograms. From the overall results obtained both the RAPD and ERIC analysis showed greater discriminatory power compared to the other phenotypic and molecular characterization techniques used in this study. Our results demonstrate that the antimicrobial resistance,presence of resistance and virulence genes, plasmid profiling, multiplex PCR, RAPD-PCR fingerprinting, ERIC and PFGE profiling methods are useful as a suitable analysis tools for a rapid and reliable molecular typing and identification of EPEC

Continuity and change : dealing with political volatility to advance climate change mitigation strategies ; examples from the transport sector

As the recent withdrawal of the United States from the Paris Agreement has shown, political volatility directly affects climate change mitigation policies, in particular in sectors, such as transport associated with long-term investments by individuals (vehicles) and by local and national governments (urban form and transport infrastructure and services). There is a large potential for cost-effective solutions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to improve the sustainability of the transport sector that is yet unexploited. Considering the cost-effectiveness and the potential for co-benefits, it is hard to understand why efficiency gains and CO2 emission reductions in the transport sector are still lagging behind this potential. Particularly interesting is the fact that there is substantial difference among countries with relatively similar economic performances in the development of their transport CO2 emissions over the past thirty years despite the fact that these countries had relatively similar access to efficient technologies and vehicles. This study aims to explore some well-established political science theories on the particular example of climate change mitigation in the transport sector in order to identify some of the factors that could help explain the variations in success of policies and strategies in this sector. The analysis suggests that institutional arrangements that contribute to consensus building in the political process provide a high level of political and policy stability which is vital to long-term changes in energy end-use sectors that rely on long-term investments. However, there is no direct correlation between institutional structures, e.g., corporatism and success in reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the transport sector. Environmental objectives need to be built into the consensus-based policy structure before actual policy progress can be observed. This usually takes longer in consensus democracies than in politically more agile majoritarian policy environments, but the policy stability that builds on corporatist institutional structures is likely to experience changes over a longer-term, in this case to a shift towards low-carbon transport that endures

Textbooks and their Portrayal of Japan in World War II

“Good morning class, now if you’ll turn in your books with me to page...” drones the voice of the teacher, it can be any teacher, teaching history in a typical high school. Those words dreaded by students of all ages and from all generations that attended schools within the public school system of their respective states. Many students dreaded these classes, but they were no doubt influenced by them. By sitting in these classes they were presented with both new information as well as reinforcement of old information about their state and country from their teacher, and perhaps more significantly, whatever textbook they had in class.1 While they are perhaps not the most exciting classes for many students, history classes, as well as the teachers and books within them, help shape how students view their country in relation to themselves and the world

Textbooks and their Portrayal of Japan in World War II

“Good morning everyone, now if you’ll turn in your books with me to page...” drones the voice of the teacher, it can be any teacher, teaching history in a typical high school. Those words dreaded by students of all ages and from all generations that attended schools within the public school system of their respective states. Many students dreaded these classes, but they were no doubt influenced by them. By sitting in them they were presented with information both new and old about their state and country from their teacher, and perhaps more significantly, whatever textbook they had in school.1 While they are perhaps not the most exciting places for many students, history classes, as well as the teachers and books within them, help shape how students view their country in relation to themselves and the world