Does global liquidity matter for monetary policy in the Euro area?

Global excess liquidity roaming the world’s financial markets (or its sudden absence) is sometimes believed to limit sovereign monetary policy even in large economies such as the euro area. However, there is still discussion about what constitutes global excess liquidity and how exactly it shapes the policy environment. Our approach adjusts liquidity for longerterm interest rate and output effects and focuses on U.S. and Japanese liquidity as relevant proxies for global developments from a euro area perspective. We find that both excess liquidity in Japan and, in particular, the U.S. tend to lead developments in euro area liquidity. U.S. excess liquidity also enters consistently positive as a determinant of euro area inflation and is shown to be Granger-causal for euro area inflation in an out-of-sample forecasting exercise. In part, this result seems to be related to a weakening of the euro area interest rate channel during times of excessive U.S. liquidity. In contrast, the influence of Japanese and euro area excess liquidity on euro area inflation is more limited. --Global excess liquidity,euro area,inflation,monetary policy,interest rate channel,forecasting accuracy.

The ECB's monetary analysis revisited

Monetary aggregates continue to play an important role in the ECB's policy strategy. This paper revisits the case for money, surveying the ongoing theoretical and empirical debate. The key conclusion is that an exclusive focus on non-monetary factors alone may leave the ECB with an incomplete picture of the economy. However, treating monetary factors as a separate matter is a second-best solution. Instead, a general-equilibrium inspired analytical framework that merges the economic and monetary pillars of the ECB's policy strategy appears the most promising way forward. The role played by monetary aggregates in such unified framework may be rather limited. However, an integrated framework would facilitate the presentation of policy decisions by providing a clearer narrative of the relative role of money in the interaction with other economic and financial sector variables, including asset prices, and their impact on consumer prices. --ECB,monetary analysis,monetary pillar,New Keynesian model,DSGE model,P* model,Twopillar Phillips curve,VAR model,generalized dynamic factor model

Does global liquidity matter for monetary policy in the Euro area?

Global excess liquidity roaming the world’s financial markets (or its sudden absence) is sometimes believed to limit sovereign monetary policy even in large economies such as the euro area. However, there is still discussion about what constitutes global excess liquidity and how exactly it shapes the policy environment. Our approach adjusts liquidity for longerterm interest rate and output effects and focuses on U.S. and Japanese liquidity as relevant proxies for global developments from a euro area perspective. We find that both excess liquidity in Japan and, in particular, the U.S. tend to lead developments in euro area liquidity. U.S. excess liquidity also enters consistently positive as a determinant of euro area inflation and is shown to be Granger-causal for euro area inflation in an out-of-sample forecasting exercise. In part, this result seems to be related to a weakening of the euro area interest rate channel during times of excessive U.S. liquidity. In contrast, the influence of Japanese and euro area excess liquidity on euro area inflation is more limited

Consumer Confidence and the Performance of the Hospitality Industry in Business Cycles

The purpose of this research is to examine if consumer confidence plays a role in explaining the financial performance of firms in the hospitality industry. Previous research has shown that consumer confidence has predictive power in forecasting future changes in household spending, and personal consumption growth in the US. Our findings are derived from regression analysis using the Fama-French Five Factor Model, which captures all variations of expected market returns. In order to adequately capture significant findings, we separated abnormal returns into pre-recessionary, recessionary, and post-recessionary time periods. From these findings, we will be able to determine with some certainty if consumer confidence has predictive power on returns in the hospitality industry in these three time periods

The ECB’s monetary analysis revisited

Monetary aggregates continue to play an important role in the ECB’s policy strategy. This paper revisits the case for money, surveying the ongoing theoretical and empirical debate. The key conclusion is that an exclusive focus on non-monetary factors alone may leave the ECB with an incomplete picture of the economy. However, treating monetary factors as a separate matter is a second-best solution. Instead, a general-equilibrium inspired analytical framework that merges the economic and monetary “pillars” of the ECB’s policy strategy appears the most promising way forward. The role played by monetary aggregates in such unified framework may be rather limited. However, an integrated framework would facilitate the presentation of policy decisions by providing a clearer narrative of the relative role of money in the interaction with other economic and financial sector variables, including asset prices, and their impact on consumer prices

The Developmental Features of Marrow Stroma in Ectopic Bone Marrow Implants

Implantation of bits of marrow in ectopic sites is followed by reorganization of tissue and the formation of a hemopoietic nodule surrounded by a shell of bone. This regenerative process is reminiscent of marrow ontogeny and the model can serve to study marrow ontogeny in a relatively short period of time. Early events during this regeneration were studied by scanning (SEM) and transmission electron microscopy (TEM). Within 24 hours the implant elicited an angiogenic reaction and new vessels penetrated the implant. Intense circulation, thus established, divested the implant from hemopoietic cells, leaving the stroma behind. Stromal cells proliferated and the impetus for this proliferation appeared to result from an impulse caused by the presence of bony fragments outside and within the stromal cells. Previous studies of this model have not appreciated the presence of non-viable bone in the implant, although the fact that non-viable bone can trigger osteogenesis and new bone marrow formation is well-known. This experimental model lends itself to the study of the interrelationship of hemopoietic cells and their supporting stroma as well as the interrelationship of bone and hemopoiesis

Knowing Values and Public Inspection

We present a basic dynamic epistemic logic of "knowing the value". Analogous to public announcement in standard DEL, we study "public inspection", a new dynamic operator which updates the agents' knowledge about the values of constants. We provide a sound and strongly complete axiomatization for the single and multi-agent case, making use of the well-known Armstrong axioms for dependencies in databases

Selbststeuernde Disposition im Umlaufmanagement von Verleihartikeln

Being successful in global markets is a challenging task. Individual customer requirements induce a change from a seller-oriented towards a customer- oriented market. Further, technical advances lead to an adaption of production and logistic processes in individual companies and global networks. Therefore, the required methods are subject to manifold research projects. At this, the efforts reach from the development of new paradigms for the handling of complex and dynamic processes over the integration of modern information and communication technologies up to concepts for the implementation of production and logistic systems. Yet, the majority of methods show a good performance in academic scenarios, but lack an evaluation in practice. The presented work considers autonomous control in event logistics. At this, the application of methods from this field in a practice-oriented scenario is from central interest

High throughput optical sensor arrays for drug screening

Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Mechanical Engineering, 2006.Vita. Page 131 blank.Includes bibliographical references (p. 127-130).In the world of drug discovery, high throughput whole cell assays are a critical step in discovering therapeutically relevant drug compounds [1]. This report details the development of several novel sensor systems capable of detecting cellular ion flux in multi-well plate format. Optodes are employed as the primary sensors, which are an optically based ion selective polymer. These assays utilize both potassium and sodium selective optodes to provide real time measurements of extracellular ion concentration, which can yield extremely valuable information regarding compound induced cellular activity [2]. Individual assay formats have been specifically tailored for use with both adherent and suspended cell lines. For adherent cell lines, the optode based sensor system was evaluated using an HEK 293 cell model. To evoke cellular activity, the cells were exposed to Isoproterenol and Forskolin, which are known to elicit intracellular cyclic AMP production. The assay proved robust in detecting long term drug induced extracellular potassium flux. Ion flux magnitude was used to generate EC50 values of 1.185 nM and 66.5 nM for Isoproterenol and Forskolin, respectively. These values correlate closely with reported values that were attained with assays using intracellular calcium as the active biomarker [3-5].(cont.) In a secondary application, a potassium optode based system was developed to screen for QT prorogating compounds, such as Haloperidol. Modem hERG screening protocols are relatively low throughput and expensive using existing commercially available patch clamping techniques [6]. The system described in this report offers a less expensive alternative technology that permits cells to operate under natural biological conditions. Test data indicates the system was able to detect 30% reductions in potassium flux magnitude from neonatal mouse cardiac Myocytes upon exposure to 2.0 uM Haloperidol. The changes in action potential properties were not detectable using transmitted light data alone.by Daniel I. Harjes.S.M

Randspaltbreiten im Dentin - eine neue Methode zur Evaluation der benötigten Leistungsfähigkeit moderner Adhäsive

Ziel dieser Studie war es, die benötigte Leistungsfähigkeit moderner Adhäsive zu bestimmen. Hierzu wurden In-Vitro-Randspaltuntersuchungen von direkten Kompositfüllungen mit zwei unterschiedlichen Kompositarten durchgeführt (ein Nanohybridkomposit und ein SDR-Komposit). Um von den entstehenden Randspalten Rückschlüsse auf die notwendige adhäsive Performance zu ziehen, welche diese Randspalten verhindern könnte, kam die in dieser Studie vorgestellte modifizierten Kavitätenkonditionierung zum Einsatz. Für diese Studie wurden 32 menschliche dritte Molaren verwendet, an denen je mesial und distal standardisierte approximale Klasse-II-Slotpräparationen mit runden bzw. eckigen Kastenböden angelegt wurden. Es erfolgte eine randomisierte Einteilung der 64 Kavitäten in acht Gruppen zu jeweils acht Proben (n = 8). Die modifizierte Konditionierung sah vor, auf den amphiphilen Primer zu verzichten und die Konditionierung auf die Vorbehandlung der Kavitäten mit Phosphorsäuregel und dem lichthärtenden, dünnfließenden Kunststoff Heliobond zu beschränken. Je nach Versuchsgruppe wurden die zwei verschiedenen Komposite (Venus Diamond und SDR) in unterschiedlichen Schichtstärken appliziert und gehärtet. Nach Ausarbeitung und Politur der Füllungen wurden die Originalproben im Rasterelektronenmikroskop in Bezug auf die Randqualität untersucht und vermessen. Die gewonnenen Daten wurden mit dem Programm R statistisch ausgewertet. Erwartungsgemäß wiesen alle Restaurationen aufgrund der modifizierten Konditionierung Randspalten auf. Die Inkrementstärke hatte bei beiden Kompositarten einen signifikanten Einfluss auf die Randqualität (p ≤ 0,05), wobei jeweils signifikant bessere Ergebnisse erzielt wurden, je kleiner die applizierten Schichtstärken waren. Die präparierte Kastenform (rund bzw. eckig) hatte keinen signifikanten Einfluss auf die Qualität der dentinbegrenzten Füllungsränder (p > 0,05). Es konnte ein signifikanter Unterschied zwischen den beiden untersuchten Kompositen Venus Diamond und SDR festgestellt werden. Während Venus Diamond in kleinen Inkrementen verarbeitet besonders gut abschneiden konnte, wurden für SDR in sog. Bulk-fill-Schichtstärken von 5 mm die signifikant besseren Resultate erzielt (p ≤ 0,05). Die Ergebnisse dieser Studie konnten zeigen, dass das Bulk-fill-Komposit SDR ohne negativen Einfluss auf die Randqualität von Füllungen verwendet werden kann. Die entstandenen Spalten am Füllungsrand sind das Resultat der nicht-kompensierten Polymerisationsschrumpfung und des Polymerisationsstresses der verwendeten Komposite. Um diese unerwünschte Spaltbildung zu verhindern, ist die Anwendung effektiver Dentinadhäsive essentiell. Die jeweils benötigte Leistungsfähigkeit der Adhäsive ist dabei abhängig von dem verwendeten Komposit sowie von der verarbeiteten Schichtstärke. Um eine sichere Adhäsion einer Restauration an der Zahnhartsubstanz Dentin zu gewährleisten, sollte ein Adhäsiv gefunden werden, welches in klinisch relevanten (Bulk-fill-) Schichtstärken eine ausreichend hohe kompensatorisch wirkende, klebende Kraft mit sich bringt, ohne bei der Verarbeitung geringerer Schichtstärken eines Komposits negativ Einfluss auf das System Zahn – Restauration zu nehmen