Determinants of the Crime Rate in Argentina during the 90's

Since Adam Smith, economists have emphasized income distribution and unemployment as key elements to explain criminal behavior. However, the empirical evidence did not always confirm such conjecture. Departing from the theoretical framework proposed by Becker (1968), the present paper identifies the determinants of the crime rate in Argentina using a panel data for 1990-99. As in previous papers studying the Argentina case, it is found that deterrence variables are important. However, unlike those papers, income distribution, unemployment and per capita GDP also played crucial roles, which has important implications for policy design. Classification JEL: K4, I3Crime rate, income distribution, unemployment, Argentina

CRISES & CRASHES: ARGENTINA 1885 – 2003

This paper is aimed at studying the determinants of currency crises suffered by Argentina from 1885 to 2003, on one hand, and at characterizing each particular currency crisis, on the other hand. Firstly, we identify crises episodes throughout the Argentine history. We apply the Eichengreen, Rose and Wyplosz (1994) methodology to sort crises from non-crises periods, and we distinguish among deep crises (crashes), mild crises and minor turbulences. Secondly, we look for regularities and common factors throughout history. We report the two- sample Kolmogorv-Smirnov test of equality of distributions and the Kruskal-Wallis test of equality of population. We complemented it by estimating a logit model including a set of variables chosen from the prescriptions of the existing currency crises theories. Thirdly, following Kaminsky (2003) we perform regression tree analysis to classify crises and crashes into different varieties proposed by the theories at stake. We use fifteen financial and macroeconomic variables suggested by the empirical literature. It is found that fiscal imbalances were always present, which is consistent with the predictions of the first generation speculative attack models. All three methods used to characterize currency crises in Argentina show the importance of the fiscal side. Adverse foreign factors had also a key role in explaining crises. Finally, in most of the crises, regularities in the behavior of macroeconomic variables can be detected.currency crises - Argentina - regression tree analysis -

First order transitions by conduction calorimetry: Application to deuterated potassium dihydrogen phosphate ferroelastic crystal under uniaxial pressure

The specific heat c and the heat power W exchanged by a Deuterated Potassium Dihydrogen Phosphate ferroelectric-ferroelastic crystal have been measured simultaneously for both decreasing and increasing temperature at a low constant rate (0.06 K/h) between 175 and 240 K. The measurements were carried out under controlled uniaxial stresses of 0.3 and 4.5±0.1 bar applied to face (110). At Tt=207.9 K, a first order transition is produced with anomalous specific heat behavior in the interval where the transition heat appears. This anomalous behavior is explained in terms of the temperature variation of the heat power during the transition. During cooling, the transition occurs with coexistence of phases, while during heating it seems that metastable states are reached. Excluding data affected by the transition heat, the specific heat behavior agrees with the predictions of a 2-4-6 Landau potential in the range of 4–15 K below Tt while logarithmic behavior is obtained in the range from Tt to 1 K below Tt. Data obtained under 0.3 and 4.5 bar uniaxial stresses exhibit the same behavior.Dirección General de Investigación Científica y Técnica. Gobierno de España-PB91-60

An Ordinal View of Independence with Application to Plausible Reasoning

An ordinal view of independence is studied in the framework of possibility theory. We investigate three possible definitions of dependence, of increasing strength. One of them is the counterpart to the multiplication law in probability theory, and the two others are based on the notion of conditional possibility. These two have enough expressive power to support the whole possibility theory, and a complete axiomatization is provided for the strongest one. Moreover we show that weak independence is well-suited to the problems of belief change and plausible reasoning, especially to address the problem of blocking of property inheritance in exception-tolerant taxonomic reasoning.Comment: Appears in Proceedings of the Tenth Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI1994

Picosecond laser machined designed patterns with anti-ice effect

Micromachining using ultra short laser pulses (USLP) has evolved over the past years as a versatile tool for introducing functional features in surfaces at a micrometric and even at a sub wavelength scale. Being able to control the surface topography at this level provides a method to change the wetting behavior of a great number of materials. In most cases, when a surface has a natural tendency to be wetted (high surface energy), increasing its roughness will increase the spreading of water over it, and when it is naturally hydrophobic this roughness can dramatically enhance the water repellency. In this study, anti-ice properties of water repellent laser machined materials are investigated. Therefore, a stainless steel substrate (AISI 304L) has been textured with regular hatched patterns, using UV and green laser pulses of 6.7ps. In order to decrease the surface energy, a thin hydrophobic\ud coating has been applied on top of these structures. Super-hydrophobic state has been reached for many of the samples, and small hysteresis values have been measured to confirm the socalled, self-cleaning, or “lotus effect” properties of the engineered surfaces

Making Explosive Cocktails: recipes and costs for 26 Crises from 1823 to 2003

Crises, like “explosive cocktails” are made by mixing powerful ingredients. Argentina has made 26 “explosive cocktails” since 1823. How many ingredients are needed to make an “explosive cocktail”? Which are these ingredients? Which is the most expensive mix? This paper attempts to identify the different recipes that ended up in economic crisis throughout argentine economic history by means of the regression tree analysis technique. The paper also measures Argentina’s crises costs in terms output losses. We follow the methodology used by the IMF (1998), that is, computing cumulative output lost relative to trend. It is found that there are four explosive mixes, having Fiscal Deficit, Real Exchange Rate Overvaluation, Bank Deposit growth rate decline and the ratio of External Debt to Exports as the key ingredients. The most frequent crises are those having high fiscal deficit; though average cost is higher for crises mixing moderate fiscal with strong decline in Real Bank Deposits, presumably entailing banking crises.Currency Crises, Regression Tree Analysis, Crises Costs

Barcelona y sus alcaldes mayores: perfil sociológico de una élite letrada al servicio de los Borbones (1718-1750)

--In January 1716 the King Philip V imposed the Decree of the Nueva Planta and abolished the "fueros" of Catalonia. This Decree established in the Principality the new castillian magistracy of the alcaldes mayores and Barcelona was only Catalonia's city wich had two lawyer: one for the civils and another one for the criminals lawsuits. Between 1718 and 1749 the city had eight civils and criminals alcaldes mayores who were designated by corregidor and military governor of the town. For most of the eighteenth century, Valencia, Zaragoza, Madrid, Murcia, Cádiz, Granada, Málaga and Córdoba too had two civils and criminals alcaldes mayores. Many of these were doctors in law of Bachelors and all of they have been followers of Philip during the Spanish War of Succession (1700-1714).En enero de 1716 el Rey Felipe V impuso el Decreto de Nueva Planta y abolió los fueros de Cataluña. Éste Decreto estableció en el Principado la nueva magistratura castellana de los alcaldes mayores y Barcelona fue la única ciudad de Cataluña con dos letrados: uno para las causas civiles y otro para las criminales. Entre 1718 y 1749, la ciudad tuvo ocho alcaldes mayores civiles y criminales que designará el corregidor y gobernador militar de la plaza. Pero durante la mayor parte del siglo XVIII también Valencia, Zaragoza, Madrid, Murcia, Cádiz, Granada, Málaga y Córdoba tendrán dos alcaldes mayores civiles y criminales. Muchos eran doctores en Derecho o Bachilleres, y todos fueron partidarios de Felipe durante la Guerra de Sucesión Española (1 700- 17 14)