An assessment of the benefits of yellow Sigatoka (Mycosphaerella musicola) control in the Queensland Northern Banana Pest Quarantine Area

The banana leaf spotting disease yellow Sigatoka is established and actively controlled in Australia through intensive chemical treatments and diseased leaf removal. In the State of Queensland, the State government imposes standards for de-leafing to minimise the risk of the disease spreading in 6 banana pest quarantine areas. Of these, the Northern Banana Pest Quarantine Area is the most significant in terms of banana production. Previous regulations imposed obligations on owners of banana plants within this area to remove leaves from plants with visible spotting on more than 15 per cent of any leaf during the wet season. Recently, this leaf disease threshold has been lowered to 5 per cent. In this paper we examine the likely impact this more-costly regulation will have on the spread of the disease. We estimate that the average net benefit of reducing the diseased leaf threshold is only likely to be $1.4 million per year over the next 30 years, expressed as the annualised present value of tightened regulation. This result varies substantially when the timeframe of the analysis is changed, with shorter time frames indicating poorer net returns from the change in protocols. Overall, the benefit of the regulation change is likely to be minor

Visualizing climate change impact with ubiquitous spatial technologies

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Environmental Sustainability Assessment of Bioeconomy Products and Processes – Progress Report 1

The present document compiles the main outputs of the environmental sustainability assessment in the framework of the Bioeconomy Observatory as at the end of 2014, for the purposes of the EU Bioeconomy Investment Summit 2015. The selection includes fourteen environmental sustainability factsheets and a brief explanatory document that provides an overview of the structure and content of the factsheets.All these documents were already approved in PUBSY (PUBSY Ref. JRC93246).JRC.H.8-Sustainability Assessmen

An analysis of water consumption in Europe’s energy production sector: The potential impact of the EU Energy Reference Scenario 2013 (LUISA configuration 2014)

This report presents the outcome of a study carried out in the frame of a wider assessment performed with the LUISA (Land Use-based Integrated Sustainability Assessment) modelling platform, configured in compliance with the “EU Energy, Transport and GHG emissions trends until 2050” (EU Energy Reference Scenario 2013). A new methodology has been implemented to estimate and map water requirements for energy production in Europe. In this study, the category of dedicated energy crops (ENCR) played an important role. These crops are expected to emerge as additional fuel sources within the EU28 by 2020. Water requirements in the remaining energy sectors have also been estimated in order to assess whether the introduction of these ENCR may, in any way, compete with the existing water requirements for energy production. More specifically, the study tackles the following questions: • Where and to what extent will there be potential competition with cooling water required for electricity generation related to the introduction of these crops? • How will these trends evolve over time? • How will the introduction of energy crops affect the overall water consumption trends in Europe? The analysis indicates that high irrigation requirements for ENCR are foreseen in France, Poland, Spain, eastern Germany, and regions of Italy and the UK. Substantial increases in requirements are seen for several regions from 2020 to 2030. ENCR are absent in Finland, Denmark, Greece, Malta, Cyprus and Croatia for the whole simulation period. Water consumption for cooling in electricity production has been quantified for the years 2020 and 2030 for 2 scenarios with a minimum and a maximum value. There is notable variation in overall water consumption, both over time and between the scenarios. There is an increase in cooling water consumption for most regions in both scenarios over the period 2020 to 2030, which is especially high in France for the minimum scenario. The values given by the two scenarios vary greatly due to the wide range in water consumption between the different cooling technologies assumed in the two cases. In some regions there is even up to a factor 10 difference in total consumption for cooling. As for any modelling exercise, the study presents a level of uncertainty due to the number of external models giving input and to the assumptions made. In the case of the cooling water mapping, a possible range of minimum/maximum values has been used to reflect the large variation due to the type of cooling system used by each power plant. For the energy crop water requirements we relied on estimates found in the literature. Nevertheless, the study presents an overall continental scale analysis of the potential impacts of the 2013 Energy Reference scenario, covering many of the involved sectors and provides the framework for further refinements and improvements.JRC.B.3-Territorial Developmen

Regional patterns of energy production and consumption factors in Europe Exploratory Project EREBILAND - European Regional Energy Balance and Innovation Landscape

The Resilient Energy Union with Forward Looking Climate Change Policy is one the ten priorities of the overarching Agenda for Jobs, Growth, Fairness and Democratic Change of the European Commission. The Communication on the Energy Union package and its Annex clearly identify EU-wide targets and policy objectives. The Exploratory Project EREBILAND (European Regional Energy Balance and Innovation Landscape) aims at supporting efficient patterns of regional energy supply and demand in Europe. Integration of spatial scales, from EU-wide to regional or local, and a cross-sector approach, are at the core of the project. The approach is based on territorial disaggregation of information, and the development of optimisation scenarios at regional scale. It is centred around the Land Use-based Integrated Sustainability Assessment (LUISA) modelling platform for the assessment of policies and investments that have spatial impacts, in interaction with the JRC-EU-TIMES model – a bottom-up, technology-rich model representing the EU28+ energy system – and the model RHOMOLO that integrates economic and some social dimensions of regional development. Based on currently operational and up-to-date tools available within the EC, the purpose of the EREBILAND project is to: • provide an overview of the current trends of regional energy production and consumption patterns, and • link these patterns to the structural characteristics of the regions, among which: population density and urbanisation trends, development of different economic sectors, and availability of resources and technological infrastructure. This report presents the outcomes of the EREBILAND Project during its first year. In particular, electricity generation and energy consumed by transport sector are analysed, under the EU Energy Reference Scenario 2013, throughout the period 2015 - 2030. Main results of the analysis dedicated to the electricity generation are: • Electricity generation from biomass increases in the large majority of European regions; a slight decrease can be found only in regions producing electricity already in 2015 above the EU28 average (in Denmark). • Electricity produced from biogas experiences less steep changes then biomass, with almost 50% of NUTS2 decreasing or not changing considerably the amount of electricity produced from this source. • Coal: electricity generated from lignite undergoes a significant reduction in all regions using this fuel already in 2015. Conversely, trends in electricity generated from hard coal are more stable, with some regions experiencing an increase: the average change is higher than 50% (a few regions in Eastern European countries), but steeper increases can be found in Austria, Sweden and the United Kingdom. • The amount of electricity generated from gas generally decreases across Europe from 2015 to 2030, with an average decrease higher than 90%. • Geothermal is the least diffuse source used to generate electricity in Europe and only few regions are represented. • Hydroelectric: the amount of electricity generated from this source is in general forecasted to increase in Europe from 2015 to 2030. Exceptions are a few regions in Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Germany, Spain, Greece, Hungary, Portugal, Romania, Sweden and most NUTS2 in the UK. • Electricity generated from nuclear is forecasted to decrease in the majority of the regions with active nuclear power plants in 2015. • Oil: the majority of the regions generating electricity from this fuel in 2015, experience a decrease in 2030. Notable exceptions are a few regions in Austria, Belgium, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Poland and Slovenia. • Electricity produced from solar is forecasted to increase in almost three quarters of European regions. The only regions where electricity from solar is forecasted to decrease are located in Greece and Romania. • Wind: electricity generated from wind, both on- and off-shore, is in general forecasted to increase in Europe. The largest increases in electricity generated from on-shore wind (above 5 times the 2015 generation levels) can be found in few regions in Czech Republic, Finland, Lubuskie in Poland, the north-est NUTS2 in Romania, Western Slovakia and Slovenia. Main results of the analysis dedicated to energy consumption of the transport sector are: • In more than two thirds of European regions, the energy supplied to cars (fuel: diesel) decreases from 2015 to 2030, with an average decrease of almost 20%. • The energy supplied to cars (fuels: gas and LPG) is forecasted to decrease throughout all European regions. The decrease is more gradual in few regions in Denmark, Portugal, Greece, Spain and Italy. • Energy supplied to cars (fuel: gasoline) is forecasted to decrease in more than 80% of the European regions, with an average decrease of 27%. • The energy supplied to heavy duty trucks (fuel: diesel) is forecasted to progressively decrease from 2015 to 2030 in 66% of the European regions, with an average decrease of more than 8%. • The energy supplied to light duty trucks (fuel: diesel) is forecasted to steeply decrease throughout European regions. • The energy supplied to light duty trucks (fuel: gasoline) is forecasted to increase in more than 90% of European regions, with an average increase of more than 40% from 2015 to 2030. The highest increases (above 70%) take place in eleven regions in Germany, Walloon Brabant in Belgium, Flevoland in the Netherlands, Lower Austria and Eastern Macedonia and Thrace. • The energy supplied to inter-city buses running on diesel is forecasted to increase from 2015 to 2030 in the large majority of European regions, with an average increase of more than 19%. • The energy supplied to urban buses (fuels: gas, diesel and gasoline) is going to moderately increase from 2015 to 2030 in almost 90% regions throughout EU-28, with an average growth of 15%. • Energy supplied to motorcycles (fuel: gasoline) is forecasted to increase in more than 80% of European NUTS2, with an average growth of 16%. • Energy supplied to cars (fuels: hybrid, electric and hydrogen) is forecasted to increase throughout Europe, in general with sharp increases. • Energy supplied to heavy duty trucks (fuel: gas) and light duty trucks (fuel: LPG) is forecasted to increase in all European regions from 2015 to 2020. In most NUTS2 this trend is kept or even accelerates between 2020 and 2030. The only regions where the trend is reversed (lower energy supplied in 2030 compared to 2020) are located in Poland, Greece, Finland (only Åland) and Croatia (only Jadranska Hrvatska).JRC.H.8-Sustainability Assessmen

European landscape changes between 2010 and 2050 under the EU Reference Scenario: EU Reference Scenario 2013 LUISA platform – Updated Configuration 2014

The ‘Land-Use-based Integrated Sustainability Assessment’ modelling platform (LUISA) is primarily used for the ex-ante evaluation of EC policies that have a direct or indirect territorial impact. It is based on the concept of ‘land function’ for cross-sector integration and for the representation of complex system dynamics. Beyond a traditional land use model, LUISA adopts a new approach towards activity-based modelling based upon the endogenous dynamic allocation of population, services and activities. LUISA has been applied to address the competition for land arising from the energy, transport and climate dimensions of EU policies and configured according to the EU Energy Reference scenario 2013 (updated configuration 2014) to produce high-resolution land use/cover projections up to 2050 and a related series of thematic indicators. This report describes the stocks and the main land cover/use flows (LCF) taking place in Europe in the period 2010-2050 and the processes that cause those flows, thus providing insight on how the European landscape might change if the future happens according to a reference scenario consistent with settings (economic and demographic in particular) and policies in place in 2013 (hence including in particular the 2020 renewable energy targets). Main findings: • The extent of the land for housing and leisure (urban) and industrial/commercial and services (ICS) increases, while the area of agriculture, forest and natural land decreases; • Urban and industrial land are expected to represent the highest share of net formation as % of the initial year (2010); • Energy crops appear in the model as of 2020 and are expected to reach 135,479 km2 across Europe in 2050; • Energy crops become the second most important land transformation in Europe (17%); approximately 90 % of the land consumed for energy purposes comes from land for food and feed, followed by forest and natural land; • While a large proportion of land dedicated to food and feed crops is expected to be converted into dedicated energy crops, the net land losses are very small as a results of the conversion from forest land into food and feed production; • New forest and natural land compensate in some way for quantity of losses or consumption by other uses; however the high value of the turnover indicator, reveal that those land-uses are unstable and vulnerable to the fast changes driven by economic development and climate changes, thus compromising the biodiversity and habitat conservation status; • The conversion between farming types represent 35% over the total land changes between 2010 and 2050; The results show the loss of natural and agricultural land because of ever-ongoing urbanisation and industrialization processes. The loss of natural and agricultural land for food production is even larger because of the advent of energy crops production incited by shifts in the European Energy supply system.JRC.H.8-Sustainability Assessmen

European cities: territorial analysis of characteristics and trends - An application of the LUISA Modelling Platform (EU Reference Scenario 2013 - Updated Configuration 2014)

Cities and towns are at the core of the European economy but they are often also the places where problems related to the quality of life of citizens such as unemployment, segregation and poverty are most evident. To curtail the negative impacts and foster the positive effects of ongoing urban processes in Europe, policies have to be adjusted and harmonised to accommodate future urbanization trends. Such an analysis of the evolution of European cities requires the evaluation of impacts of continent-wide drivers and, at the same time, assessment of the effect of national and local strategies. As a contribution to this analysis of the current and future evolution of European territories (countries, macro-regions, regions or urban areas), the Directorate-General Joint Research Centre (DG JRC) of the European Commission (EC) has developed the Land-Use-based Integrated Sustainability Assessment (LUISA) Modelling Platform. Based on the concept of ‘dynamic land functions’, LUISA has adopted a novel approach towards activity-based modelling and endogenous dynamic allocation of population, services and activities. This report illustrates how European cities could potentially evolve over the time period 2010-2050, according to the reference configuration of the LUISA modelling platform, on the basis of a collection of spatial indicators covering several thematic fields. These spatial indicators aim to improve our understanding of urbanization and urban development processes in Europe; explore territorial dimensions of projected demographic and economic changes, and finally examine some key challenges that urban areas are or may be exposed to. Some of the key findings of this report are given below: - The proportion of the population living in cities, towns and suburbs is higher in the EU than in the rest of the world. According to the LUISA forecasts, the urban proportion will continue to increase up to 2030; subsequently slow down, and reach a relatively steady state by 2050. - In 2010, 65% of the EU population were living in Functional Urban Areas (FUA, the city and its commuting zone). This figure is expected to reach 70% by 2050. The total EU-28 population is expected to grow by 4.6%. Most of this population growth will occur particularly in FUA which will grow by an average 14%. - As of 2010, the amount of artificial areas per inhabitant in the EU-28 was estimated as 498 m2: it becomes 539 m2 in 2050 with an 8% increase. Although there is not a unique spatial pattern, land take tends to start peak at 5 km distance from the city centre. This is due to the fact that land is often less available for development within city centres and that the majority of land take therefore will occur firstly in the suburbs and then in rural areas. - By 2050, potential accessibility – as measure of economic opportunities - will be higher in the urban areas of north-western Europe, while it will not improve in lagging European regions. Urban form has a considerable impact on average travelled distances and thus potentially on the energy dependence of transport. - Green infrastructure is mainly located at the periphery of urban areas. Its share per person is generally low or very low in most of the European cities, with few exceptions. Green infrastructure per capita in FUA shows a general trend towards a decrease across the EU-28 (by approximately 13%) between 2010 and 2050. - Larger cities tend to have higher average flood risk, especially due to the higher sensitivity in terms of potential human and physical losses. The analysis herein presented is part of a wider initiative of DG JRC and DG REGIO aiming to improve the management of knowledge and sharing of information related to territorial policies, such as those concerning urban development. In this framework, the work will be further developed, covering the following main elements: - Development of the European Urban Data Platform, providing a single access point for data and indicators on the status and trends of European urban areas; - Updates of the LUISA configuration, to account for new socio-economic projections; - Support to the development of the EU Urban Agenda and related initiatives; - Provision of evidence-based support for the evaluation of territorial policies in particular to proof the role of cities in the implementation of EU priorities.JRC.H.8-Sustainability Assessmen

LUISA Dynamic Land Functions: Catalogue of Indicators – Release I: EU Reference Scenario 2013 LUISA Platform - Updated Configuration 2014

The concept of ‘dynamic land function’ is a new notion for cross-sector integration and for the representation of complex system dynamics. A land function can be societal (e.g. provision of housing, leisure and recreation), economic (e.g. provision of production factors - employment, investments, energy – or provision of manufacturing products and services – food, fuels, consumer goods, etc.) or environmental (e.g. supply of ecosystem services). Land functions are temporally and spatially dynamic, and are constrained and driven by natural, socio-economic, and techno-economic processes. Based on the concept of ‘land function’ and beyond a traditional land use model, the Land-Use based Integrated Sustainability Assessment (LUISA) modelling platform adopts a new approach towards activity-based modelling based upon the endogenous dynamic allocation of population, services and activities. The ultimate product of LUISA is a set of territorial indicators that can be grouped and combined according to the ‘land function’ of interest and/or to the sector under assessment. The herein presented indicators measure the provision of land functions in the period 2010-2050, according to the EU Reference Scenario (LUISA, updated configuration 2014), consistent with settings (economic and demographic in particular) and policies in place in 2013 (hence including the 2020 renewable energy targets). The indicators are aggregated by Member States and Regions (Administrative Units NUTS-2) and can be employed as benchmark to monitor sectorial and territorial evolutions of alternative scenarios (e.g. to simulate policy options or specific measures), and for future updates of the reference scenario, to capture policy impacts (for example when changing energy targets) and their territorial effects. This catalogue aims to provide the description of the land functions and the list of related indicators and an indicator factsheet (metadata). 30 indicators, out of the more than 50 currently produced by LUISA, are included in the first release of the catalogue. The catalogue is periodically up-dated, following the updates of the configurations of the LUISA modelling platform and the definition, computation and validation of new indicators. Indicators and basic spatial layers used for the simulations will be made available in the frame of the framework for the management of knowledge and dissemination of information being set up by the Pilot Knowledge Centre on Territorial Policies.JRC.H.8-Sustainability Assessmen

European Territorial Trends - Facts and Prospects for Cities and Regions Ed. 2017

This report analyses a set of territorial trends at continental and sub-national scale, looking at patterns and determinants of regional growth, while considering pan-European and national characteristics. Past and prospective demographic and economic trends are analysed to provide a picture of ‘what, where, when and how’ things happen in European cities and regions. Specific emphasis is placed on urban areas since acknowledged sources of both opportunities and challenges. The indicators used in the analysis herein presented are freely and openly accessible in the Territorial Dashboard of the Knowledge Centre for Territorial Policies at: http://urban.jrc.ec.europa.eu/t-board/index.htmlJRC.B.3-Territorial Developmen