Forecasting technology costs via the Learning Curve - Myth or Magic?

To further our understanding of the effectiveness of learning or experience curves to forecast technology costs, a statistical analysis using historical data has been carried out. Three hypotheses have been tested using available data sets that together shed light on the ability of experience curves to forecast future technology costs. The results indicate that the Single Factor Learning Curve is a highly effective estimator of future costs with little bias when errors were viewed in their log format. However, it was also found that due to the convexity of the log curve an overestimation of potential cost reductions arises when returned to their monetary units. Furthermore the effectiveness of increasing weights for more recent data was tested using Weighted Least Squares with exponentially increasing weights. This resulted in forecasts that were typically less biased than when using Ordinary Least Square and highlighted the potential benefits of this method

Forecasting technology costs via the Learning Curve – Myth or Magic?

To further our understanding of the effectiveness of learning or experience curves to forecast technology costs, a statistical analysis using historical data has been carried out. Three hypotheses have been tested using available data sets that together shed light on the ability of experience curves to forecast future technology costs. The results indicate that the Single Factor Learning Curve is a highly effective estimator of future costs with little bias when errors were viewed in their log format. However it was also found that due to the convexity of the log curve an overestimation of potential cost reductions arises when returned to their monetary units. Furthermore the effectiveness of increasing weights for more recent data was tested using Weighted Least Squares with exponentially increasing weights. This resulted in forecasts that were typically less biased than when using Ordinary Least Square and highlighted the potential benefits of this method.Forecasting, Learning curves, Renewable energy

How Important Is Communicating with Native English Speakers to EFL Learners’ Self-Confidence in their English Language Proficiency?

Research evidence shows that communicating and interacting with native speakers could boost students’ self-confidence in their language proficiency. If this claim proves to be veritable, students who have the experience communicating and interacting with native speakers, either online or offline, would expectedly feel more confident than those who do not. The present study sought to examine whether significant differences existed in the self-confidence level of EFL (English as a Foreign Language) learners who (a) had the experience communicating with native English speakers and who did not; (b) had the intention to communicate with native English speakers and who did not; (c) were males and females, and (d) who were in different academic years (year 1, year 2, and year 3 respectively). Independent samples t-test revealed that, whereas males and females were equally confident, learners who had the experience interacting, or who had the intention communicating, with native English speakers were significantly more confident in their English language proficiency than those who had never interacted, or who did not have the intention to communicate, with native English speakers. No significant differences were observed based on year of enrollment. Implications of this study on the English language teaching and learning will be critically discussed in this paper

Policy Implications of Stochastic Learning Using a Modified PAGE2002 Model

We consider the importance of Endogenous Technical Change (ETC) on the risk profiles for different abatement strategies using the PAGE2002 model with ETC. Three outcomes from this modelling research have significant impacts on the way we ‘optimise’ the greenhouse gas abatement path. Firstly, it was found that for most standard abatement paths there would be an initial "learning investment" required that would substantially reduce the unit costs of CO2 abatement as compared to a business as usual scenario. Secondly, optimising an abatement program where ETC has been included can lead to an increased risk profile during the time of widespread CO2 abatements due to the costs associated with learning. Finally, the inclusion of ETC leads to a slightly deferred optimised abatement path followed by a drastic abatement program that itself would seem highly impractical. Together, the results draw attention to the possibilities of uncovering uncertainty through proactive abatements

Pengaruh Model Project Based Learning (Pjbl) terhadap Hasil Belajar Sbdp Materi Membuat Karya Kolase Siswa Kelas IV SD Negeri Kecamatan Wolasi

Pendidikan SBK memiliki peranan dalam pembentukan pribadi peserta didik yang harmonis dengan memperhatikan kebutuhan perkembangan anak dalam mencapai multikecerdasan. Berdasarkan hasil observasi dan wawancara, pembelajaran SBK di SD Negeri se-Kecamatan Wolasi masih kurang optimal. Yang menjadi rumusan masalah dalam penelitian ini adalah bagaimana aktivitas pembelajaran model Direct Instruction dan perbedaan hasil belajar SBK materi membuat karya kolase melalui Model Direct Instruction, serta pengaruh model Direct Instruction dan motivasi terhadap hasil belajar siswa kelas IV SD Negeri se-Kec. Wolasi Kabupaten Konawe Selatan. Tujuan dalam penelitian ini adalah Untuk mengetahui pengaruh model Direct Instruction terhadap hasil belajar SBK pada materi membuat karya kolase siswa kelas IV SD Negeri se-Kec. Wolasi Kabupaten Konawe Selatan. penelitian ini bermanfaat untuk mengetahui pengaruh model Direct Instruction terhadap hasil belajar SBK materi membuat karya kolase. Model pembelajaran project based-learning (PjBL) berpengaruh terhadap hasil belajar membuat karya kolase di kelas IV SDN 6 Wolasi. Hal ini didasarkan pada nilai signifikan uji independent sample t-test diperoleh bahwa thitung= 2,604 ≥ ttabel= 2,021 dan nilai Sig. (2-tailed) 0,006 <α = 0,05, sehingga H0ditolak, yang berarti model pembelajaran project based learning(PjBL) berpengaruh terhadap hasil belajar membuat karya kolase

TECHNOLOGY-ENHANCED TEACHING: A REVOLUTIONARY APPROACH TO TEACHING ENGLISH AS A FOREIGN LANGUAGE

The online course offerings have grown exponentially globally since the turn of the 21st century – be they as a primary mode of instruction or as a supplement to traditional face-to-face classroom instruction, and this phenomenon is most noticeable in higher education. More recently, the new technology has also been integrated into the English as a Foreign Language, henceforth called EFL, classrooms. This article argues that the notion of technology-enhanced language learning is not just an intriguing idea – it is a necessity, for it has a great potential to offer in facilitating the development of English language proficiency of EFL learners through computer-mediated communication. Additionally, it contends that the new technology can potentially address most, if not all, of the shortcomings inherent to the EFL classroom including, but not limited to, lack of exposure to the target language, lack of practice, and lack of learning resources. Theoretical implications of technology-enhanced language teaching and learning will also be explored

Developing the PAGE2002 Model with Endogenous Technical Change

Presented research demonstrates the inclusion of endogenous technical change into the PAGE2002 integrated assessment model of climate change. The ‘experience curve’ or learning-by-doing concept, made popular by the Boston Consulting Group during the 1960’s provides a mechanism with which to describe cost reduction through experiential learning. The implementation of learning requires both a restructuring of the way costs are modelled as well as the inclusion of an explicit learning function with initial abatement costs and learning coefficients calibrated to historical renewable energy data. The discounted values for total abatement costs are calculated for both the standard PAGE2002 model without an explicit learning function and the modified PAGE2002 model. The results were found to be of a similar magnitude, partially due to the myopic effects of discounting, though the result was found to be highly sensitive to the learning rate used, which in our case was a conservative estimate

How effective are technology-enhanced teaching techniques in the EFL classroom?

The past decade has seen almost exponential growth in online course offerings across the globe and online courses have now become ubiquitous. However, our current understanding of the effectiveness of this mode of delivery in learning, especially when compared to traditional face-to-face classroom instruction, remains insufficient. In fact, researchers have been engaged in an extended debate over the effectiveness of ‘online’ versus traditional ‘face-to-face’ classroom instruction. As part of this ongoing debate, there is now extensive research into the respective merits of these forms of instruction. This particular study responds to some gaps in this research. The first gap is that much of this work represents science-related subjects and relatively few studies concern the teaching and learning of foreign languages, such as English. Second, whereas there is a plethora of research outside Indonesia, relatively little, if any, has been conducted with student populations from this country, thus limiting our understanding of the merit of new technology in this particular context.Conducted in Indonesia, this study examines students’ learning experiences and learning outcomes in three different modes of delivery: conventional face-to-face, online, and hybrid instruction. Students across the three groups reported that they had experienced an interesting learning experience, a high level of interactivity, and quality learning. However, the online group reported more negative experiences than the other two groups, both in terms of types and frequency. Interestingly, it also reported unique positive learning experiences not found elsewhere. In terms of learning outcomes, as indicated by students’ pre- and post-test scores, all groups experienced a significant increase in their post-test scores. The difference in the groups’ post-test scores, after controlling for pre-existing differences in the pre-test, proved to be insignificant.This finding provides strong support for the well-known ‘nonsignificant phenomenon’, but offers new insights into the merit of new technology in the EFL classroom in this particular context. Overall, both students’ learning experience and their learning outcomes lead to the conclusion that online learning appears to be a viable mode of instruction, despite it being more challenging than hybrid and face-to-face tuition. The implications of these findings for the integration of technology into the language classroom have been critically examined in this thesis