Forecasting Financial Extremes: A Network Degree Measure of Super-exponential Growth

Investors in stock market are usually greedy during bull markets and scared during bear markets. The greed or fear spreads across investors quickly. This is known as the herding effect, and often leads to a fast movement of stock prices. During such market regimes, stock prices change at a super-exponential rate and are normally followed by a trend reversal that corrects the previous over reaction. In this paper, we construct an indicator to measure the magnitude of the super-exponential growth of stock prices, by measuring the degree of the price network, generated from the price time series. Twelve major international stock indices have been investigated. Error diagram tests show that this new indicator has strong predictive power for financial extremes, both peaks and troughs. By varying the parameters used to construct the error diagram, we show the predictive power is very robust. The new indicator has a better performance than the LPPL pattern recognition indicator.Comment: 16 pages, 6 figure

Parent-perceived autonomy-supportive experiences and basic psychological needs of people with complex support needs:Development and preliminary psychometric evaluation of two questionnaires

BackgroundUnderstanding and supporting basic psychological needs of persons with complex support needs is important but difficult because of communicative challenges . We developed and tested questionnaires to obtain parents’ perspectives on autonomy support and basic psychological needs of autonomy, competence, and relatedness. MethodTwo parent-informant questionnaires were developed, administered, and subjected to psychometric property analyses. Participants were 63 Dutch parents of persons diagnosed with severe or profound intellectual and multiple disabilities. ResultsPrincipal component analyses revealed a one-factor structure for the Parental Perceptions on Autonomy-Supportive Experiences questionnaire, while the Parental Perceptions on Basic Psychological Need Signals questionnaire yielded two-factors interpreted as Noticing Signals of Autonomy and Noticing Signals of Competence/Relatedness. Evidence for construct validity was found for both instruments. ConclusionsPreliminary evaluation of the new questionnaires is encouraging, but further validation with a larger sample size is warranted

Satisfying basic psychological needs among people with complex support needs:A self-determination theory-guided analysis of primary relatives' perspectives

Background: The fulfilment of basic psychological needs (BPNs) is seen as an integral part of human self-determination, subjective wellbeing, and overall quality of life. However, the meaning of these psychological constructs for individuals with the most extensive support needs remains elusive. Methods: Primary relatives of nine people diagnosed with severe or profound intellectual and multiple disabilities were interviewed about their perceptions of autonomy, competence, and relatedness regarding their family member with complex care needs, and about the ways in which they tried to support their family member in fulfilling specific BPNs. The interview analysis followed a grounded theory with the sensitizing concepts approach. Results: The relatives assigned important meaning to the BPNs, providing insights into their subtle nature, their implicit drivers, and how they were experienced. The relatives also identified serious challenges in detecting, clarifying, and creating opportunities for BPNs. Conclusions: The themes in the relatives’ perspectives can be summarized into a conceptual framework that may contribute to better mutual understanding between people with complex care needs, their relatives, and healthcare providers

A case report of a blueberry muffin baby caused by congenital self-healing indeterminate cell histiocytosis

Background: Blueberry muffin is a descriptive term for a neonate with multiple purpuric skin lesions. Many causes are known, amongst them life-threatening diseases like congenital infections or leukemia. Indeterminate cell histiocytosis (ICH) is an exceptionally rare cause of blueberry muffin rash. ICH is a histiocytic disorder which can be limited to the skin or can present with systemic involvement. A mutation that has been described in histiocytic disorders is a MAP2K1 mutation. In ICH, this mutation has previously been described in merely one case. Case presentation: A term male neonate was admitted to the neonatology ward directly after birth because of a blueberry muffin rash. ICH was diagnosed on skin biopsy. The lesions resolved spontaneously. The patient is currently 3 years old and has had no cutaneous lesions or systemic involvement so far. This disease course is similar to that of the Hashimoto-Pritzker variant of LCH. Conclusions: ICH can manifest in neonates as resolving skin lesions. It is limited to the skin in most cases, but systemic development is possible. Therefore, it is essential to confirm the diagnosis with a biopsy before the lesions resolve and to monitor these patients closely with routine follow-up.</p

A mapping of parenting support policies worldwide to prevent violence against children

BACKGROUND: While recent systematic reviews indicate that parenting interventions reduce negative parenting behaviours, including child maltreatment, only 26 % of governments worldwide indicate that parenting support programs reach all parents in their country. OBJECTIVE: This mapping study investigates which countries have a government policy to provide such parenting support aimed at reducing child-directed violence. SETTING: To analyse parenting support within the broad cultural and historical contexts, this study covers all 194 countries and territories worldwide. METHODS: A systematic stepwise online search was conducted to establish the existence, or not, of a parenting support policy to prevent violence against children and in the case that a policy was identified, the sectoral policy portfolio in which the policy was published. RESULTS: Findings showed that almost half of countries globally have a policy relating to parenting support to prevent child maltreatment. The highest concentration of such policies is in the European, Southeast Asia and Western Pacific Regions and globally parenting support are mainly stand-alone policies or embedded within a child protection policy. CONCLUSIONS: Ideas around parenting support have evolved over time however the link between policy and practice as well as the reality of implementation modalities remains unclear. The translation of policy to practice merits further attention if we want to reach every parent in the world who needs it

Childhood outcome after correction of long-gap esophageal atresia by thoracoscopic external traction technique

Background: Thoracoscopic external traction technique (TTT) is a relatively new surgical intervention for patients with long-gap esophageal atresia (LGEA) that preserves the native esophagus. The major accomplishment with TTT is that esophageal repair can be achieved within days after birth. This study evaluates the childhood outcome in LGEA patients treated with TTT, including gastrointestinal outcome, nutritional status and Health-Related Quality of Life (HRQoL). Methods: A cohort study including all LGEA patients that underwent TTT between 2006-2017 was conducted. Patients and/or their parents were invited to fill out questionnaires regarding reflux symptoms and HRQoL. Results: TTT was successful in 11/13 patients (85%). Esophageal anastomosis was accomplished at a median age of 12 days (range 7-138), first oral feeding was started at a median of 16 days postoperatively (range 5-37). All patients required multiple dilatations and 10 patients required anti-reflux surgery. At median follow-up of seven years, five patients reported mild and one moderate reflux complaints. All patients but one reached age-appropriate oral diet. Most patients (80%) were within normal growth range. Overall HRQoL was comparable to healthy controls. Conclusion: TTT provides acceptable results in childhood. Oral feeding can be started as soon as two weeks postoperatively. Almost all patients are able to eat an age-appropriate oral diet. Overall HRQoL was comparable to healthy controls

Quality of life after esophageal replacement in children

Purpose: Assessing quality of life (QoL) after esophageal replacement (ER) for long gap esophageal atresia (LGEA). Methods: All patients after ER for LGEA with gastric pull-up (GPU n = 9) or jejunum interposition (JI n = 14) at the University Medical Center Groningen and Utrecht (1985–2007) were included. QoL was assessed with 1) gastrointestinal-related QoL using the Gastrointestinal Quality of Life Index (GIQLI)), 2) general QoL (Child Health questionnaire CHF87-BREF (children)/World Health Organization questionnaire WHOQOL-BREF (adults)), and 3) health-related QoL (HRQoL) (TNO AZL TACQoL/TAAQoL). Association of morbidity (heartburn, dysphagia, dyspnea on exertion, recurrent cough) and (HR)QoL was evaluated. Results: Six patients after GPU (75%) and eight patients after JI (57%) responded to the questionnaires (mean age 15.7, SD 5.9, 12 male, two female). Mean gastrointestinal, general and health-related QoL total scores of the patients were comparable to healthy controls. However, young adults reported a worse physical functioning (p = 0.02) but better social functioning compared to peers (p = 0.01). Morbidity was not associated with significant differences in (HR)QoL. Conclusions: With the current validated QoL most patients after ER with GPU and JI for LGEA have normal generic and disease specific QoL scores. Postoperative morbidity does not seem to influence (HR)QoL. Type of Study: Prognosis Study. Level of evidence: III

Primary Posterior Tracheopexy in Esophageal Atresia Decreases Respiratory Tract Infections

Background: Esophageal atresia (EA) is often accompanied by tracheomalacia (TM). TM can lead to severe respiratory complaints requiring invasive treatment. This study aims to evaluate if thoracoscopic primary posterior tracheopexy (PPT) can prevent the potential sequelae of TM in patients with EA. Methods: A cohort study including all consecutive EA patients treated between 2014 and July 2019 at the Wilhelmina Children's Hospital was conducted. Two groups were distinguished: (group 1) all EA patients born between January 2014 and December 2016 and (group 2) all EA patients born between January 2017 and July 2019, after introduction of PPT. In the latter group, PPT was performed in EA patients with moderate (33–66%) or severe (67–100%) tracheomalacia, seen during preoperative bronchoscopy. Group differences were assessed using the Fisher's exact test for bivariate variables and the Mann–Whitney U-test for continuous variables. Results: A total of 64 patients were included in this study (28 patients in group 1; 36 patients in group 2). In group 2, PPT was performed in 14 patients. Respiratory tract infections (RTIs) requiring antibiotics within the first year of life occurred significantly less in group 2 (61 vs. 25%, p = 0.004). Brief resolved unexplained events (BRUEs) seemed to diminish in group 2 compared to group 1 (39 vs. 19%, p = 0.09). Conclusion: Thoracoscopic primary posterior tracheopexy decreases the number of respiratory tract infections in EA patients. The clinical impact of reducing RTIs combined with the minimal additional operating time and safety of PPT outweighs the risk of overtreatment

Systemic treatment of children and adolescents with atopic dermatitis aged ≥2 years : a Delphi consensus project mapping expert opinion in Northern Europe

Publisher Copyright: © 2022 The Authors. Journal of the European Academy of Dermatology and Venereology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of European Academy of Dermatology and Venereology.Background: Paediatric atopic dermatitis (AD) can be burdensome, affecting mental health and impairing quality of life for children and caregivers. Comprehensive guidelines exist for managing paediatric AD, but practical guidance on using systemic therapy is limited, particularly for new therapies including biologics and Janus kinase (JAK) inhibitors, recently approved for various ages in this indication. Objectives: This expert consensus aimed to provide practical recommendations within this advancing field to enhance clinical decision-making on the use of these and other systemics for children and adolescents aged ≥2 years with moderate-to-severe AD. Methods: Nineteen physicians from Northern Europe were selected for their expertise in managing childhood AD. Using a two-round Delphi process, they reached full or partial consensus on 37 statements. Results: Systemic therapy is recommended for children aged ≥2 years with a clear clinical diagnosis of severe AD and persistent disease uncontrolled after optimizing non-systemic therapy. Systemic therapy should achieve long-term disease control and reduce short-term interventions. Recommended are cyclosporine A for short-term use (all ages) and dupilumab or methotrexate for long-term use (ages ≥6 years). Consensus was not reached on the best long-term systemics for children aged 2–6 years, although new systemic therapies will likely become favourable: New biologics and JAK inhibitors will soon be approved for this age group, and more trial and real-world data will become available. Conclusions: This article makes practical recommendations on the use of systemic AD treatments for children and adolescents, to supplement international and regional guidelines. It considers the systemic medication that was available for children and adolescents with moderate-to-severe AD at the time this consensus project was done: azathioprine, cyclosporine A, dupilumab, methotrexate, mycophenolate mofetil and oral glucocorticosteroids. We focus on the geographically similar Northern European countries, whose healthcare systems, local preferences for AD management and reimbursement structures nonetheless differ significantly.Peer reviewe