A Simulation-Based Approach to Understanding the Wisdom of Crowds Phenomenon in Aggregating Expert Judgment

Research has shown that aggregation of independent expert judgments significantly improves the quality of forecasts as compared to individual expert forecasts. This “wisdom of crowds” (WOC) has sparked substantial interest. However, previous studies on strengths and weaknesses of aggregation algorithms have been restricted by limited empirical data and analytical complexity. Based on a comprehensive analysis of existing knowledge on WOC and aggregation algorithms, this paper describes the design and implementation of a static stochastic simulation model to emulate WOC scenarios with a wide range of parameters. The model has been thoroughly evaluated: the assumptions are validated against propositions derived from literature, and the model has a computational representation. The applicability of the model is demonstrated by investigating aggregation algorithm behavior on a detailed level, by assessing aggregation algorithm performance, and by exploring previously undiscovered suppositions on WOC. The simulation model helps expand the understanding of WOC, where previous research was restricted. Additionally, it gives directions for developing aggregation algorithms and contributes to a general understanding of the WOC phenomenon

The biggest business process management problems to solve before we die

It may be tempting for researchers to stick to incremental extensions of their current work to plan future research activities. Yet there is also merit in realizing the grand challenges in one’s field. This paper presents an overview of the nine major research problems for the Business Process Management discipline. These challenges have been collected by an open call to the community, discussed and refined in a workshop setting, and described here in detail, including a motivation why these problems are worth investigating. This overview may serve the purpose of inspiring both novice and advanced scholars who are interested in the radical new ideas for the analysis, design, and management of work processes using information technology

The biggest business process management problems to solve before we die

It may be tempting for researchers to stick to incremental extensions of their current work to plan future research activities. Yet there is also merit in realizing the grand challenges in one's field. This paper presents an overview of the nine major research problems for the Business Process Management discipline. These challenges have been collected by an open call to the community, discussed and refined in a workshop setting, and described here in detail, including a motivation why these problems are worth investigating. This overview may serve the purpose of inspiring both novice and advanced scholars who are interested in the radical new ideas for the analysis, design, and management of work processes using information technology

Urocortin-1 within the Centrally-Projecting Edinger-Westphal Nucleus Is Critical for Ethanol Preference

Converging lines of evidence point to the involvement of neurons of the centrally projecting Edinger-Westphal nucleus (EWcp) containing the neuropeptide Urocortin-1 (Ucn1) in excessive ethanol (EtOH) intake and EtOH sensitivity. Here, we expanded these previous findings by using a continuous-access, two-bottle choice drinking paradigm (3%, 6%, and 10% EtOH vs. tap water) to compare EtOH intake and EtOH preference in Ucn1 genetic knockout (KO) and wild-type (WT) mice. Based on previous studies demonstrating that electrolytic lesion of the EWcp attenuated EtOH intake and preference in high-drinking C57BL/6J mice, we also set out to determine whether EWcp lesion would differentially alter EtOH consumption in Ucn1 KO and WT mice. Finally, we implemented well-established place conditioning procedures in KO and WT mice to determine whether Ucn1 and the corticotropin-releasing factor type-2 receptor (CRF-R2) were involved in the rewarding and aversive effects of EtOH (2 g/kg, i.p.). Results from these studies revealed that (1) genetic deletion of Ucn1 dampened EtOH preference only in mice with an intact EWcp, but not in mice that received lesion of the EWcp, (2) lesion of the EWcp dampened EtOH intake in Ucn1 KO and WT mice, but dampened EtOH preference only in WT mice expressing Ucn1, and (3) genetic deletion of Ucn1 or CRF-R2 abolished the conditioned rewarding effects of EtOH, but deletion of Ucn1 had no effect on the conditioned aversive effects of EtOH. The current findings provide strong support for the hypothesis that EWcp-Ucn1 neurons play an important role in EtOH intake, preference, and reward

Customers Like It Hot and Fast – Incorporating Customer Effects into the Meal Delivery Process

Delivering meal orders as fast as possible and the meal itself as hot as possible are the most important factorsin the meal delivery process as they drive customer satisfaction. High customer satisfaction leads to loyal customers, implying a higher rate of recurring orders, in return. Existing approaches tackle the meal delivery process by taking a short-term perspective on a single optimization criterion (e.g. minimizing delivery costs). Still missing is an alternative perspective that also incorporates the long-term value contribution of individual customers. By neglecting this customer-centric perspective, frequent out-of-town located ordering customers might be disadvantaged as they are repeatedly served at the end of the route. To close this research gap, we propose a decision model (C2RG) that incorporates a long-term customer-centric view. Depending on different short- and long-term preferences, the model can be appropriately customized. We observe a significant increase in a long-term factor, such as customer fairness by only slightly reducing short-term route performance. We instantiated a software prototype of the C2RG and evaluated it with real-world data of a local platform-to-consumer delivery service located in Germany. The results show the importance of considering a customer-centric long-term perspective in the meal delivery process

Using Blockchain to Coordinate Federal Processes: The Case of Germany's Federal Office for Migration and Refugees

(a)Situation faced: The German asylum procedure requires close cooperation and information exchange between various authorities at the municipal, state, and federal levels. Federal separation of competencies inhibits the delegation of process governance to a central authority such as the Federal Office for Migration and Refugees (BAMF). This separation also leads to regional differences as federal laws govern the procedure's general steps, whereas state laws govern implementation. Moreover, existing solutions for cross-organizational collaboration are limited in terms of flexibility, security, and data quality. As a result, the exchange of certain data on asylum procedures still occurs using Excel spreadsheets and e-mails.(b)Action taken: Against this backdrop, the BAMF explored technological options that would support the decentralized governance of the asylum procedure. After a preliminary evaluation, the BAMF decided to explore a solution based on blockchain technology. Building upon a successful proof of concept, the BAMF initiated a pilot project with Saxony's central immigration authority. This project aims to develop a blockchain solution that supports the coordination of asylum procedures and can be easily adapted to local differences and functional requirements.(c)Results achieved: The use of the blockchain solution allows for efficient, secure, and timely distribution of status information. It supports communication and improves coordination between authorities. Despite an apparent conflict between blockchain principles and data privacy requirements, the BAMF's design complies with relevant regulation (notably the GDPR). As a first-of-its-kind project, it outlines best practices and provides valuable insights into opportunities and challenges arising from the use of blockchain in the public sector.(d)Lessons learned: The BAMF's case demonstrates that blockchain solutions can be promising alternatives when the delegation of process governance to a central party is not desirable and when federal principles of organization are to be reflected technologically. However, blockchain projects require special attention to managing know-how and capabilities, software development activities, stakeholders, the regulatory context, and cross-organizational governance

Adapting APSIM to model the physiology and genetics of complex adaptive traits in field crops

Progress in molecular plant breeding is limited by the ability to predict plant phenotype based on its genotype, especially for complex adaptive traits. Suitably constructed crop growth and development models have the potential to bridge this predictability gap. A generic cereal crop growth and development model is outlined here. It is designed to exhibit reliable predictive skill at the crop level while also introducing sufficient physiological rigour for complex phenotypic responses to become emergent properties of the model dynamics. The approach quantifies capture and use of radiation, water, and nitrogen within a framework that predicts the realized growth of major organs based on their potential and whether the supply of carbohydrate and nitrogen can satisfy that potential. The model builds on existing approaches within the APSIM software platform. Experiments on diverse genotypes of sorghum that underpin the development and testing of the adapted crop model are detailed. Genotypes differing in height were found to differ in biomass partitioning among organs and a tall hybrid had significantly increased radiation use efficiency: a novel finding in sorghum. Introducing these genetic effects associated with plant height into the model generated emergent simulated phenotypic differences in green leaf area retention during grain filling via effects associated with nitrogen dynamics. The relevance to plant breeding of this capability in complex trait dissection and simulation is discussed. © 2010 The Authors