The Association between Acute and Late Genitourinary and Gastrointestinal Toxicities: An Analysis of the PACE B Study

Several studies have demonstrated the association between acute and late radiotherapy toxicity in prostate cancer using older radiotherapy techniques. However, whether this association is present with newer techniques such as stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT), remains unclear. We use univariable and multivariable logistic regression to analyse the association between grade 2 or worse acute gastrointestinal (GI) and genitourinary (GU) toxicities with equivalent late toxicities in patients treated with SBRT and conventional or moderately fractionated radiotherapy (CRT) within the PACE-B study. 842 patients were included in this analysis. Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events (CTCAE) was the primary clinician reported outcome measure used in this analysis. In univariable analysis, experiencing a grade 2+ acute GU toxicity was significantly associated with developing a grade 2+ late GU toxicity after SBRT (OR 4.63, 95% CI (2.96–7.25), p < 0.0001) and CRT (OR 2.83, 95% CI (1.69–4.71), p < 0.0001). This association remained significant in multivariable analysis. In univariable analysis, experiencing a grade 2+ acute GI toxicity was also associated with developing a grade 2+ late GI toxicity after SBRT (OR 3.67, 95% CI (1.91–7.03), p < 0.0001) and CRT (OR 4.4, 95% CI (2.04–9.47), p < 0.0001). This association also remained significant in multivariable analysis. Grade 2+ baseline GU symptoms were also associated with grade 2+ late urinary toxicity in both univariable and multivariable analysis. Overall, acute toxicity is an important predictor variable for late GU/GI toxicity after localised prostate radiotherapy using SBRT and CRT. Future work should test whether optimising symptoms pre-treatment and early intervention in those with significant acute toxicities could mitigate the development late of toxicity

Stereotactic body radiotherapy for primary prostate cancer

Prostate cancer is the most common non-cutaneous cancer in males. There are a number of options for patients with localized early stage disease, including active surveillance for low-risk disease, surgery, brachytherapy, and external beam radiotherapy. Increasingly, external beam radiotherapy, in the form of dose-escalated and moderately hypofractionated regimens, is being utilized in prostate cancer, with randomized evidence to support their use. Stereotactic body radiotherapy, which is a form of extreme hypofractionation, delivered with high precision and conformality typically over 1 to 5 fractions, offers a more contemporary approach with several advantages including being non-invasive, cost-effective, convenient for patients, and potentially improving patient access. In fact, one study has estimated that if half of the patients currently eligible for conventional fractionated radiotherapy in the United States were treated instead with stereotactic body radiotherapy, this would result in a total cost savings of US$250 million per year. There is also a strong radiobiological rationale to support its use, with prostate cancer believed to have a low alpha/beta ratio and therefore being preferentially sensitive to larger fraction sizes. To date, there are no published randomized trials reporting on the comparative efficacy of stereotactic body radiotherapy compared to alternative treatment modalities, although multiple randomized trials are currently accruing. Yet, early results from the randomized phase III study of HYPOfractionated RadioTherapy of intermediate risk localized Prostate Cancer (HYPO-RT-PC) trial, as well as multiple single-arm phase I/II trials, indicate low rates of late adverse effects with this approach. In patients with low-to intermediate-risk disease, excellent biochemical relapse-free survival outcomes have been reported, albeit with relatively short median follow-up times. These promising early results, coupled with the enormous potential cost savings and implications for resource availability, suggest that stereotactic body radiotherapy will take center stage in the treatment of prostate cancer in the years to come

Estimates of Alpha/Beta (alpha/beta) Ratios for Individual Late Rectal Toxicity Endpoints: An Analysis of the CHHiP Trial

Purpose: Changes in fraction size of external beam radiation therapy exert nonlinear effects on subsequent toxicity. Commonly described by the linear-quadratic model, fraction size sensitivity of normal tissues is expressed by the α/β ratio. We sought to study individual α/β ratios for different late rectal effects after prostate external beam radiation therapy. Methods and Materials: The CHHiP trial (ISRCTN97182923) randomized men with nonmetastatic prostate cancer 1:1:1 to 74 Gy/37 fractions (Fr), 60 Gy/20 Fr, or 57 Gy/19 Fr. Patients in the study had full dosimetric data and zero baseline toxicity. Toxicity scales were amalgamated to 6 bowel endpoints: bleeding, diarrhea, pain, proctitis, sphincter control, and stricture. Lyman-Kutcher-Burman models with or without equivalent dose in 2 Gy/Fr correction were log-likelihood fitted by endpoint, estimating α/β ratios. The α/β ratio estimate sensitivity was assessed using sequential inclusion of dose modifying factors (DMFs): age, diabetes, hypertension, inflammatory bowel or diverticular disease (IBD/diverticular), and hemorrhoids. 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were bootstrapped. Likelihood ratio testing of 632 estimator log-likelihoods compared the models. Results: Late rectal α/β ratio estimates (without DMF) ranged from bleeding (G1 + α/β = 1.6 Gy; 95% CI, 0.9-2.5 Gy) to sphincter control (G1 + α/β = 3.1 Gy; 95% CI, 1.4-9.1 Gy). Bowel pain modelled poorly (α/β, 3.6 Gy; 95% CI, 0.0-840 Gy). Inclusion of IBD/diverticular disease as a DMF significantly improved fits for stool frequency G2+ (P = .00041) and proctitis G1+ (P = .00046). However, the α/β ratios were similar in these no-DMF versus DMF models for both stool frequency G2+ (α/β 2.7 Gy vs 2.5 Gy) and proctitis G1+ (α/β 2.7 Gy vs 2.6 Gy). Frequency-weighted averaging of endpoint α/β ratios produced: G1 + α/β ratio = 2.4 Gy; G2 + α/β ratio = 2.3 Gy. Conclusions: We estimated α/β ratios for several common late adverse effects of rectal radiation therapy. When comparing dose-fractionation schedules, we suggest using late a rectal α/β ratio ≤ 3 Gy

Genitourinary α/β Ratios in the CHHiP Trial the Fraction Size Sensitivity of Late Genitourinary Toxicity: Analysis of Alpha/Beta (α/β) Ratios in the CHHiP Trial

PURPOSE: Moderately hypofractionated external beam intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) for prostate cancer is now standard-of-care. Normal tissue toxicity responses to fraction size alteration are non-linear: the linear-quadratic model is a widely-used framework accounting for this, through the α/β ratio. Few α/β ratio estimates exist for human late genitourinary endpoints; here we provide estimates derived from a hypofractionation trial. METHODS AND MATERIALS: The XXXXXX trial randomised 3216 men with localised prostate cancer 1:1:1 between conventionally fractionated IMRT (74Gy/37 fractions (Fr)) and two moderately hypofractionated regimens (60Gy/20Fr & 57Gy/19Fr). Radiotherapy plan and suitable follow-up assessment was available for 2206 men. Three prospectively assessed clinician-reported toxicity scales were amalgamated for common genitourinary endpoints: Dysuria, Haematuria, Incontinence, Reduced flow/Stricture, Urine Frequency. Per endpoint, only patients with baseline zero toxicity were included. Three models for endpoint grade ≥1 (G1+) and G2+ toxicity were fitted: Lyman Kutcher-Burman (LKB) without equivalent dose in 2Gy/Fr (EQD2) correction [LKB-NoEQD2]; LKB with EQD2-correction [LKB-EQD2]; LKB-EQD2 with dose-modifying-factor (DMF) inclusion [LKB-EQD2-DMF]. DMFs were: age, diabetes, hypertension, pelvic surgery, prior transurethral resection of prostate (TURP), overall treatment time and acute genitourinary toxicity (G2+). Bootstrapping generated 95% confidence intervals and unbiased performance estimates. Models were compared by likelihood ratio test. RESULTS: The LKB-EQD2 model significantly improved performance over LKB-NoEQD2 for just three endpoints: Dysuria G1+ (α/β=2.0 Gy, 95%CI 1.2-3.2Gy), Haematuria G1+ (α/β=0.9 Gy, 95%CI 0.1-2.2Gy) and Haematuria G2+ (α/β=0.6Gy, 95%CI 0.1-1.7Gy). For these three endpoints, further incorporation of two DMFs improved on LKB-EQD2: acute genitourinary toxicity and Prior TURP (Haematuria G1+ only), but α/β ratio estimates remained stable. CONCLUSIONS: Inclusion of EQD2-correction significantly improved model fitting for Dysuria and Haematuria endpoints, where fitted α/β ratio estimates were low: 0.6-2 Gy. This suggests therapeutic gain for clinician-reported GU toxicity, through hypofractionation, might be lower than expected by typical late α/β ratio assumptions of 3-5 Gy

Probing empirical contact networks by simulation of spreading dynamics

Disease, opinions, ideas, gossip, etc. all spread on social networks. How these networks are connected (the network structure) influences the dynamics of the spreading processes. By investigating these relationships one gains understanding both of the spreading itself and the structure and function of the contact network. In this chapter, we will summarize the recent literature using simulation of spreading processes on top of empirical contact data. We will mostly focus on disease simulations on temporal proximity networks -- networks recording who is close to whom, at what time -- but also cover other types of networks and spreading processes. We analyze 29 empirical networks to illustrate the methods

Long-Term Follow-Up of the Intergroup Exemestane Study

Purpose: The Intergroup Exemestane Study, an investigator-led study of 4,724 postmenopausal patients with early breast cancer (clinical trial information: ISRCTN11883920), has previously demonstrated that a switch from adjuvant endocrine therapy after 2 to 3 years of tamoxifen to exemestane was associated with clinically relevant improvements in efficacy. Here, we report the final efficacy analyses of this cohort. Patients and Methods: Patients who remained disease free after 2 to 3 years of adjuvant tamoxifen were randomly assigned to continue tamoxifen or switch to exemestane to complete a total of 5 years of adjuvant endocrine therapy. Given the large number of non–breast cancer–related deaths now reported, breast cancer–free survival (BCFS), with censorship of intercurrent deaths, was the primary survival end point of interest. Analyses focus on patients with estrogen receptor-positive or unknown tumors (n = 4,599). Results: At the time of the data snapshot, median follow-up was 120 months. In the population that was estrogen receptor positive or had unknown estrogen receptor status, 1,111 BCFS events were observed with 508 (22.1%) of 2,294 patients in the exemestane group and 603 (26.2%) of 2,305 patients in the tamoxifen group. The data corresponded to an absolute difference (between exemestane and tamoxifen) at 10 years of 4.0% (95% CI, 1.2% to 6.7%), and the hazard ratio (HR) of 0.81 (95% CI, 0.72 to 0.92) favored exemestane. This difference remained in multivariable analysis that was adjusted for nodal status, prior use of hormone replacement therapy, and prior chemotherapy (HR, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.71 to 0.90; P < .001). A modest improvement in overall survival was seen with exemestane; the absolute difference (between exemestane and tamoxifen) at 10 years in the population that was estrogen receptor positive or had unknown estrogen receptor status was 2.1% (95% CI, −0.5% to 4.6%), and the HR was 0.89 (95% CI, 0.78 to 1.01; P = .08). For the intention-to-treat population, the absolute difference was 1.6% (95% CI, −0.9% to 4.1%); the HR was 0.91 (95% CI, 0.80 to 1.03, P = .15). No statistically significant difference was observed in the proportion of patients who reported a fracture event in the post-treatment period. Conclusion: The Intergroup Exemestane Study and contemporaneous studies have established that a strategy of switching to an aromatase inhibitor after 2 to 3 years of tamoxifen can lead to sustained benefits in terms of reduction of disease recurrence and breast cancer mortality

Immune-mediated competition in rodent malaria is most likely caused by induced changes in innate immune clearance of merozoites

Malarial infections are often genetically diverse, leading to competitive interactions between parasites. A quantitative understanding of the competition between strains is essential to understand a wide range of issues, including the evolution of virulence and drug resistance. In this study, we use dynamical-model based Bayesian inference to investigate the cause of competitive suppression of an avirulent clone of Plasmodium chabaudi (AS) by a virulent clone (AJ) in immuno-deficient and competent mice. We test whether competitive suppression is caused by clone-specific differences in one or more of the following processes: adaptive immune clearance of merozoites and parasitised red blood cells (RBCs), background loss of merozoites and parasitised RBCs, RBC age preference, RBC infection rate, burst size, and within-RBC interference. These processes were parameterised in dynamical mathematical models and fitted to experimental data. We found that just one parameter μ, the ratio of background loss rate of merozoites to invasion rate of mature RBCs, needed to be clone-specific to predict the data. Interestingly, μ was found to be the same for both clones in single-clone infections, but different between the clones in mixed infections. The size of this difference was largest in immuno-competent mice and smallest in immuno-deficient mice. This explains why competitive suppression was alleviated in immuno-deficient mice. We found that competitive suppression acts early in infection, even before the day of peak parasitaemia. These results lead us to argue that the innate immune response clearing merozoites is the most likely, but not necessarily the only, mediator of competitive interactions between virulent and avirulent clones. Moreover, in mixed infections we predict there to be an interaction between the clones and the innate immune response which induces changes in the strength of its clearance of merozoites. What this interaction is unknown, but future refinement of the model, challenged with other datasets, may lead to its discovery

Effect of 18F-fluciclovine positron emission tomography on the management of patients with recurrence of prostate cancer: Results from the FALCON Trial

Purpose: Early and accurate localization of lesions in patients with biochemical recurrence (BCR) of prostate cancer may guide salvage therapy decisions. The present study, 18F-Fluciclovine PET/CT in biochemicAL reCurrence Of Prostate caNcer (FALCON; NCT02578940), aimed to evaluate the effect of 18F-fluciclovine on management of men with BCR of prostate cancer. Methods and Materials: Men with a first episode of BCR after curative-intent primary therapy were enrolled at 6 UK sites. Patients underwent 18F-fluciclovine positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) according to standardized procedures. Clinicians documented management plans before and after scanning, recording changes to treatment modality as major and changes within a modality as other. The primary outcome measure was record of a revised management plan postscan. Secondary endpoints were evaluation of optimal prostate specific antigen (PSA) threshold for detection, salvage treatment outcome assessment based on 18F-fluciclovine-involvement, and safety. Results: 18F-Fluciclovine was well tolerated in the 104 scanned patients (median PSA = 0.79 ng/mL). Lesions were detected in 58 out of 104 (56%) patients. Detection was broadly proportional to PSA level; ≤1 ng/mL, 1 out of 3 of scans were positive, and 93% scans were positive at PSA &gt;2.0 ng/mL. Sixty-six (64%) patients had a postscan management change (80% after a positive result). Major changes (43 out of 66; 65%) were salvage or systemic therapy to watchful waiting (16 out of 66; 24%); salvage therapy to systemic therapy (16 out of 66; 24%); and alternative changes to treatment modality (11 out of 66, 17%). The remaining 23 out of 66 (35%) management changes were modifications of the prescan plan: most (22 out of 66; 33%) were adjustments to planned brachytherapy/radiation therapy to include a 18F-fluciclovine-guided boost. Where 18F-fluciclovine guided salvage therapy, the PSA response rate was higher than when 18F-fluciclovine was not involved (15 out of 17 [88%] vs 28 out of 39 [72%]). Conclusions: 18F-Fluciclovine PET/CT located recurrence in the majority of men with BCR, frequently resulting in major management plan changes. Incorporating 18F-fluciclovine PET/CT into treatment planning may optimize targeting of recurrence sites and avoid futile salvage therapy