Avon Hotham catchment appraisal 2005

This report summarises current information on risks and impacts to agricultural production and natural resources within the Avon Hotham study area. It then identifies suitable options to manage such risks. The Avon Hotham study area is 1.9 million hectares and is made up of three sub catchments: West Avon, South Avon and Hotham, in south west Western Australia. Among the risks and impacts discussed are rainfall, surface drainage; major land degredation hazards are subsurface compaction and acidification

Greenhouse gas implications of mobilizing agricultural biomass for energy: a reassessment of global potentials in 2050 under different food-system pathways

Global bioenergy potentials have been the subject of extensive research and continued controversy. Due to vast uncertainties regarding future yields, diets and other influencing parameters, estimates of future agricultural biomass potentials vary widely. Most scenarios compatible with ambitious climate targets foresee a large expansion of bioenergy, mainly from energy crops that needs to be kept consistent with projections of agriculture and food production. Using the global biomass balance model BioBaM, we here present an assessment of agricultural bioenergy potentials compatible with the Food and Agriculture Organization's (2018) 'Alternative pathways to 2050' projections. Mobilizing biomass at larger scales may be associated with systemic feedbacks causing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, e.g. crop residue removal resulting in loss of soil carbon stocks and increased emissions from fertilization. To assess these effects, we derive 'GHG cost supply-curves', i.e. integrated representations of biomass potentials and their systemic GHG costs. Livestock manure is most favourable in terms of GHG costs, as anaerobic digestion yields reductions of GHG emissions from manure management. Global potentials from intensive livestock systems are about 5 EJ/yr. Crop residues can provide up to 20 EJ/yr at moderate GHG costs. For energy crops, we find that the medium range of literature estimates (~40 to 90 EJ/yr) is only compatible with FAO yield and human diet projections if energy plantations expand into grazing areas (~4–5 million km2) and grazing land is intensified globally. Direct carbon stock changes associated with perennial energy crops are beneficial for climate mitigation, yet there are—sometimes considerable—'opportunity GHG costs' if one accounts the foregone opportunity of afforestation. Our results indicate that the large potentials of energy crops foreseen in many energy scenarios are not freely and unconditionally available. Disregarding systemic effects in agriculture can result in misjudgement of GHG saving potentials and flawed climate mitigation strategies

Biomass turnover time in terrestrial ecosystems halved by land use

The terrestrial carbon cycle is not well quantified1. Biomass turnover time is a crucial parameter in the global carbon cycle2–4, and contributes to the feedback between the terrestrial carbon cycle and climate2–7. Biomass turnover time varies substantially in time and space, but its determinants are not well known8,9, making predictions of future global carbon cycle dynamics uncertain5,10–13. Land use—the sum of activities that aim at enhancing terrestrial ecosystem services14—alters plant growth15 and reduces biomass stocks16, and is hence expected to aect biomass turnover. Here we explore land-use-induced alterations of biomass turnover at the global scale by comparing the biomass turnover of the actual vegetation with that of a hypothetical vegetation state with no land use under current climate conditions. We find that, in the global average, biomass turnover is 1.9 times faster with land use. This acceleration aects all biomes roughly equally, but with large dierences between land-use types. Land conversion, for example fromforests to agricultural fields, is responsible for59%of the acceleration; the use of forestsand natural grazing land accounts for 26% and 15% respectively. Reductions in biomass stocks are partly compensated by reductions in net primary productivity. We conclude that land use significantly and systematically aects the fundamental trade-off between carbon turnover and carbon stocks

Food systems in a zero-deforestation world: Dietary change is more important than intensification for climate targets in 2050

Global food systems contribute to climate change, the transgression of planetary boundaries and deforestation. An improved understanding of the environmental impacts of different food system futures is crucial for forging strategies to sustainably nourish a growing world population. We here quantify the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of global food system scenarios within a biophysically feasible “option space” in 2050 comprising all scenarios in which biomass supply – calculated as function of agricultural area and yields – is sufficient to cover biomass demand – derived from human diets and the feed demand of livestock. We assessed the biophysical feasibility of 520 scenarios in a hypothetical no-deforestation world. For all feasible scenarios, we calculate (in) direct GHG emissions related to agriculture. We also include (possibly negative) GHG emissions from land-use change, including changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) and carbon sinks from vegetation regrowth on land spared from food production. We identify 313 of 520 scenarios as feasible. Agricultural GHG emissions (excluding land use change) of feasible scenarios range from 1.7 to 12.5 Gt CO2e yr−1. When including changes in SOC and vegetation regrowth on spare land, the range is between −10.7 and 12.5 Gt CO2e yr−1. Our results show that diets are the main determinant of GHG emissions, with highest GHG emissions found for scenarios including high meat demand, especially if focused on ruminant meat and milk, and lowest emissions for scenarios with vegan diets. Contrary to frequent claims, our results indicate that diets and the composition and quantity of livestock feed, not crop yields, are the strongest determinants of GHG emissions from food-systems when existing forests are to be protected

Renormalization Group Analysis of a Quivering String Model of Posture Control

Scaling concepts and renormalization group (RG) methods are applied to a simple linear model of human posture control consisting of a trembling or quivering string subject to damping and restoring forces. The string is driven by uncorrelated white Gaussian noise intended to model the corrections of the physiological control system. We find that adding a weak quadratic nonlinearity to the posture control model opens up a rich and complicated phase space (representing the dynamics) with various non-trivial fixed points and basins of attraction. The transition from diffusive to saturated regimes of the linear model is understood as a crossover phenomenon, and the robustness of the linear model with respect to weak non-linearities is confirmed. Correlations in posture fluctuations are obtained in both the time and space domain. There is an attractive fixed point identified with falling. The scaling of the correlations in the front-back displacement, which can be measured in the laboratory, is predicted for both the large-separation (along the string) and long-time regimes of posture control.Comment: 20 pages, 13 figures, RevTeX, accepted for publication in PR

Bioenergy production and sustainable development: science base for policymaking remains limited

The possibility of using bioenergy as a climate change mitigation measure has sparked a discussion of whether and how bioenergy production contributes to sustainable development. We undertook a systematic review of the scientific literature to illuminate this relationship and found a limited scientific basis for policymaking. Our results indicate that knowledge on the sustainable development impacts of bioenergy production is concentrated in a few well-studied countries, focuses on environmental and economic impacts, and mostly relates to dedicated agricultural biomass plantations. The scope and methodological approaches in studies differ widely and only a small share of the studies sufficiently reports on context and/or baseline conditions, which makes it difficult to get a general understanding of the attribution of impacts. Nevertheless, we identified regional patterns of positive or negative impacts for all categories – environmental, economic, institutional, social and technological. In general, economic and technological impacts were more frequently reported as positive, while social and environmental impacts were more frequently reported as negative (with the exception of impacts on direct substitution of GHG emission from fossil fuel). More focused and transparent research is needed to validate these patterns and develop a strong science underpinning for establishing policies and governance agreements that prevent/mitigate negative and promote positive impacts from bioenergy production

Tacit collusion, firm asymmetries and numbers:evidence from EC merger cases

The purpose of this paper is to identify empirically the implicit structural model, especially the roles of size asymmetries and concentration, used by the European Commission to identify mergers with coordinated effects (i.e. collective dominance). Apart from its obvious policy-relevance, the paper is designed to shed empirical light on the conditions under which tacit collusion is most likely. We construct a database relating to 62 candidate mergers and find that, in the eyes of the Commission, tacit collusion in this context virtually never involves more than two firms and requires close symmetry in the market shares of the two firms

Anthromes dispaying evidence of weekly cycles in active fire data cover 70% of the global land surface

Across the globe, human activities have been gaining importance relatively to climate and ecology as the main controls on fire regimes and consequently human activity became an important driver of the frequency, extent and intensity of vegetation burning worldwide. Our objective in the present study is to look for weekly cycles in vegetation fire activity at global scale as evidence of human agency, relying on the original MODIS active fire detections at 1 km spatial resolution (MCD14ML) and using novel statistical methodologies to detect significant periodicities in time series data. We tested the hypotheses that global fire activity displays weekly cycles and that the weekday with the fewest fires is Sunday. We also assessed the effect of land use and land cover on weekly fire cycle significance by testing those hypotheses separately for the Villages, Settlements, Croplands, Rangelands, Seminatural, and Wildlands anthromes. Based on a preliminary data analysis of the daily global active fire counts periodogram, we developed an harmonic regression model for the mean function of daily fire activity and assumed a linear model for the de-seasonalized time series. For inference purposes, we used a Bayesian methodology and constructed a simultaneous 95% credible band for the mean function. The hypothesis of a Sunday weekly minimum was directly investigated by computing the probabilities that the mean functions of every weekday (Monday to Saturday) are inside the credible band corresponding to mean Sunday fire activity. Since these probabilities are small, there is statistical evidence of significantly fewer fires on Sunday than on the other days of the week. Cropland, rangeland, and seminatural anthromes, which cover 70% of the global land area and account for 94% of the active fires analysed, display weekly cycles in fire activity. Due to lower land management intensity and less strict control over fire size and duration, weekly cycles in Rangelands and Seminatural anthromes, which jointly account for 53.46% of all fires, although statistically significant are weaker than those detected in Croplandsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio