Exploring Connections between Global Climate Indices and African Vegetation Phenology

Variations in agricultural production due to rainfall and temperature fluctuations are a primary cause of food insecurity on the continent in Africa. Agriculturally destructive droughts and floods are monitored from space using satellite remote sensing by organizations seeking to provide quantitative and predictive information about food security crises. Better knowledge on the relation between climate indices and food production may increase the use of these indices in famine early warning systems and climate outlook forums on the continent. Here we explore the relationship between phenology metrics derived from the 26 year AVHRR NDVI record and the North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). We explore spatial relationships between growing conditions as measured by the NDVI and the five climate indices in Eastern, Western and Southern Africa to determine the regions and periods when they have a significant impact. The focus is to provide a clear indication as to which climate index has the most impact on the three regions during the past quarter century. We found that the start of season and cumulative NDVI were significantly affected by variations in the climate indices. The particular climate index and the timing showing highest correlation depended heavily on the region examined. The research shows that climate indices can contribute to understanding growing season variability in Eastern, Western and Southern Africa

Variability of African Farming Systems from Phenological Analysis of NDVI Time Series

Food security exists when people have access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food at all times to meet their dietary needs. The natural resource base is one of the many factors affecting food security. Its variability and decline creates problems for local food production. In this study we characterize for sub-Saharan Africa vegetation phenology and assess variability and trends of phenological indicators based on NDVI time series from 1982 to 2006. We focus on cumulated NDVI over the season (cumNDVI) which is a proxy for net primary productivity. Results are aggregated at the level of major farming systems, while determining also spatial variability within farming systems. High temporal variability of cumNDVI occurs in semiarid and subhumid regions. The results show a large area of positive cumNDVI trends between Senegal and South Sudan. These correspond to positive CRU rainfall trends found and relate to recovery after the 1980's droughts. We find significant negative cumNDVI trends near the south-coast of West Africa (Guinea coast) and in Tanzania. For each farming system, causes of change and variability are discussed based on available literature (Appendix A). Although food security comprises more than the local natural resource base, our results can perform an input for food security analysis by identifying zones of high variability or downward trends. Farming systems are found to be a useful level of analysis. Diversity and trends found within farming system boundaries underline that farming systems are dynamic

Estimating the Effect of Gypsy Moth Defloiation Using MODIS

The area of North American forests affected by gypsy moth defoliation continues to expand despite efforts to slow the spread. With the increased area of infestation, ecological, environmental and economic concerns about gypsy moth disturbance remain significant, necessitating coordinated, repeatable and comprehensive monitoring of the areas affected. In this study, our primary objective was to estimate the magnitude of defoliation using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) imagery for a gypsy moth outbreak that occurred in the US central Appalachian Mountains in 2000 and 2001. We focused on determining the appropriate spectral MODIS indices and temporal compositing method to best monitor the effects of gypsy moth defoliation. We tested MODIS-based Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), and two versions of the Normalized Difference Infrared index (NDIIb6 and NDIIb7, using the channels centered on 1640 nm and 2130 nm respectively) for their capacity to map defoliation as estimated by ground observations. In addition, we evaluated three temporal resolutions: daily, 8-day and 16-day data. We validated the results through quantitative comparison to Landsat based defoliation estimates and traditional sketch maps. Our MODIS based defoliation estimates based on NDIIb6 and NDIIb7 closely matched Landsat defoliation estimates derived from field data as well as sketch maps. We conclude that daily MODIS data can be used with confidence to monitor insect defoliation on an annual time scale, at least for larger patches (greater than 0.63 km2). Eight-day and 16-day MODIS composites may be of lesser use due to the ephemeral character of disturbance by the gypsy moth

Effects of City Size on Thunderstorm Evolution Revealed Through a Multi-Radar Climatology of the Central United States

Five years of 0.01° latitude x 0.01° longitude multi-radar multi-sensor grids of composite reflectivity and vertically-integrated signals from maximum expected size of hail (MESH) and vertically integrated liquid (VIL) were created to examine the role of city size on thunderstorm occurrence and strength around four cities: Dallas/Ft. Worth, TX; Minneapolis/St. Paul, MN; Oklahoma City, OK; and Omaha, NE. A storm-tracking algorithm identified thunderstorm areas every minute and connected them together to form tracks. These tracks defined the upwind and downwind regions around each city on a storm-by-storm basis and were analyzed in two ways: (1) by sampling the maximum value every 10 min. and (2) accumulating the spatial footprint over its lifetime. Beyond examining all events, a subset of events corresponding to favorable conditions for urban modification were explored. This urban favorable (UF) subset consisted of non-supercells occurring in the late afternoon/evening in the meteorological summer on weak synoptically forced days. When examining all thunderstorm events, regions at variable ranges upwind of all four cities generally had higher areal mean values of reflectivity, MESH, and VIL compared to downwind areas. In the UF subset, the larger cities (Dallas/Ft. Worth and Minneapolis/St. Paul) had a 24-50% increase in the number of downwind thunderstorms, resulting in a higher areal mean reflectivity, MESH, and VIL in this region. The smaller cities (Oklahoma City and Omaha) did not show such a downwind enhancement in thunderstorm occurrence and strength for the radar variables examined. This pattern suggests that larger cities could increase thunderstorm occurrence and intensity downwind of the prevailing flow under unique environmental conditions

Maintenance of Ecosystem Nitrogen Limitation by Ephemeral Forest Disturbance: An Assessment using MODIS, Hyperion, and Landsat ETM+

Ephemeral disturbances, such as non-lethal insect defoliations and crown damage from meteorological events, can significantly affect the delivery of ecosystem services by helping maintain nitrogen (N) limitation in temperate forest ecosystems. However, the impacts of these disturbances are difficult to observe across the broad-scales at which they affect ecosystem function. Using remotely sensed measures and field data, we find support for the hypothesis that ephemeral disturbances help maintain landscape-wide ecosystem N limitation. Specifically, a phenology-based defoliation index derived from daily MODIS satellite imagery predicts three ecosystem responses from oak-dominated forested watersheds: elevated stream water N export (R(exp 2) = 0.48), decreased foliar N (R(exp 2) = 0.69, assessed with Hyperion imagery), and reduced vegetation growth vigor (R(exp 2) = 0.49, assessed with Landsat ETM+ imagery). The results indicate that ephemeral disturbances and other forest stressors may sustain N limitation by reducing the ability of trees to compete for--and retain--soil available N

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