Assessing time, cost and quality trade-offs in forecast-based action for floods

Forecast-based actions are increasingly receiving attention in flood risk management. However, uncertainties and constraints in forecast skill highlight the need to carefully assess the costs and benefits of the actions in relation to the limitations of the forecast information. Forecast skill decreases with increasing lead time, and therefore, an inherent trade-off between timely and effective decisions and accurate information exists. In our paper, we present a methodology to assess the potential added value of early warning early action systems (EWEAS), and we explore the decision-makers’ dilemma between acting upon limited-quality forecast information and taking less effective actions. The assessment is carried out for one- and a two-stage action systems, in which a first action that is based on a lower skill and longer lead time forecast may be followed up by a second action that is based on a short-term, higher-confidence forecast. Through an idealized case study, we demonstrate that a) that the optimal lead time to trigger action is a function of the forecast quality, the local geographic conditions and the operational characteristics of the forecast-based actions and b) even low-certainty, long lead time forecasts can become valuable when paired with short-term, higher quality ones in a two-stage action approach

Anomaly Mediated Supersymmetry Breaking in Four Dimensions, Naturally

We present a simple four-dimensional model in which anomaly mediated supersymmetry breaking naturally dominates. The central ingredient is that the hidden sector is near a strongly-coupled infrared fixed-point for several decades of energy below the Planck scale. Strong renormalization effects then sequester the hidden sector from the visible sector. Supersymmetry is broken dynamically and requires no small input parameters. The model provides a natural and economical explanation of the hierarchy between the supersymmetry-breaking scale and the Planck scale, while allowing anomaly mediation to address the phenomenological challenges posed by weak scale supersymmetry. In particular, flavor-changing neutral currents are naturally near their experimental limits.Comment: 14 pages, Late

Climate change adaptation in conflict-affected countries:A systematic assessment of evidence

People affected by conflict are particularly vulnerable to climate shocks and climate change, yet little is known about climate change adaptation in fragile contexts. While climate events are one of the many contributing drivers of conflict, feedback from conflict increases vulnerability, thereby creating conditions for a vicious cycle of conflict. In this study, we carry out a systematic review of peer-reviewed literature, taking from the Global Adaptation Mapping Initiative (GAMI) dataset to documenting climate change adaptation occurring in 15 conflict-affected countries and compare the findings with records of climate adaptation finance flows and climate-related disasters in each country. Academic literature is sparse for most conflict-affected countries, and available studies tend to have a narrow focus, particularly on agriculture-related adaptation in rural contexts and adaptation by low-income actors. In contrast, multilateral and bilateral funding for climate change adaptation addresses a greater diversity of adaptation needs, including water systems, humanitarian programming, and urban areas. Even among the conflict-affected countries selected, we find disparity, with several countries being the focus of substantial research and funding, and others seeing little to none. Results indicate that people in conflict-affected contexts are adapting to climate change, but there is a pressing need for diverse scholarship across various sectors that documents a broader range of adaptation types and their results

Global predictability of temperature extremes

Extreme temperatures are one of the leading causes of death and disease in both developed and developing countries, and heat extremes are projected to rise in many regions. To reduce risk, heatwave plans and cold weather plans have been effectively implemented around the world. However, much of the world’s population is not yet protected by such systems, including many data-scarce but also highly vulnerable regions. In this study, we assess at a global level where such systems have the potential to be effective at reducing risk from temperature extremes, characterizing (1) long-term average occurrence of heatwaves and coldwaves, (2) seasonality of these extremes, and (3) short-term predictability of these extreme events three to ten days in advance. Using both the NOAA and ECMWF weather forecast models, we develop global maps indicating a first approximation of the locations that are likely to benefit from the development of seasonal preparedness plans and/or short-term early warning systems for extreme temperature. The extratropics generally show both short-term skill as well as strong seasonality; in the tropics, most locations do also demonstrate one or both. In fact, almost 5 billion people live in regions that have seasonality and predictability of heatwaves and/or coldwaves. Climate adaptation investments in these regions can take advantage of seasonality and predictability to reduce risks to vulnerable populations

Weak Scale Supersymmetry Without Weak Scale Supergravity

It is generally believed that weak scale supersymmetry implies weak scale supergravity, in the sense that the masses of the gravitino and gravitationally coupled moduli have masses below 100 TeV. This paper presents a realistic framework for supersymmetry breaking in the hidden sector in which the masses of the gravitino and gravitational moduli can be much larger. This cleanly eliminates the cosmological problems of hidden sector models. Supersymmetry breaking is communicated to the visible sector by anomaly-mediated supersymmetry breaking. The framework is compatible with perturbative gauge coupling unification, and can be realized either in models of "warped" extra dimensions, or in strongly-coupled four-dimensional conformal field theories.Comment: 9 pages, LaTeX2e, no figure

Search for Doubly-Charged Higgs Boson Production at HERA

A search for the single production of doubly-charged Higgs bosons H^{\pm \pm} in ep collisions is presented. The signal is searched for via the Higgs decays into a high mass pair of same charge leptons, one of them being an electron. The analysis uses up to 118 pb^{-1} of ep data collected by the H1 experiment at HERA. No evidence for doubly-charged Higgs production is observed and mass dependent upper limits are derived on the Yukawa couplings h_{el} of the Higgs boson to an electron-lepton pair. Assuming that the doubly-charged Higgs only decays into an electron and a muon via a coupling of electromagnetic strength h_{e \mu} = \sqrt{4 \pi \alpha_{em}} = 0.3, a lower limit of 141 GeV on the H^{\pm\pm} mass is obtained at the 95% confidence level. For a doubly-charged Higgs decaying only into an electron and a tau and a coupling h_{e\tau} = 0.3, masses below 112 GeV are ruled out.Comment: 15 pages, 3 figures, 1 tabl

Multiplicity Structure of the Hadronic Final State in Diffractive Deep-Inelastic Scattering at HERA

The multiplicity structure of the hadronic system X produced in deep-inelastic processes at HERA of the type ep -> eXY, where Y is a hadronic system with mass M_Y< 1.6 GeV and where the squared momentum transfer at the pY vertex, t, is limited to |t|<1 GeV^2, is studied as a function of the invariant mass M_X of the system X. Results are presented on multiplicity distributions and multiplicity moments, rapidity spectra and forward-backward correlations in the centre-of-mass system of X. The data are compared to results in e+e- annihilation, fixed-target lepton-nucleon collisions, hadro-produced diffractive final states and to non-diffractive hadron-hadron collisions. The comparison suggests a production mechanism of virtual photon dissociation which involves a mixture of partonic states and a significant gluon content. The data are well described by a model, based on a QCD-Regge analysis of the diffractive structure function, which assumes a large hard gluonic component of the colourless exchange at low Q^2. A model with soft colour interactions is also successful.Comment: 22 pages, 4 figures, submitted to Eur. Phys. J., error in first submission - omitted bibliograph

Differential (2+1) Jet Event Rates and Determination of alpha_s in Deep Inelastic Scattering at HERA

Events with a (2+1) jet topology in deep-inelastic scattering at HERA are studied in the kinematic range 200 < Q^2< 10,000 GeV^2. The rate of (2+1) jet events has been determined with the modified JADE jet algorithm as a function of the jet resolution parameter and is compared with the predictions of Monte Carlo models. In addition, the event rate is corrected for both hadronization and detector effects and is compared with next-to-leading order QCD calculations. A value of the strong coupling constant of alpha_s(M_Z^2)= 0.118+- 0.002 (stat.)^(+0.007)_(-0.008) (syst.)^(+0.007)_(-0.006) (theory) is extracted. The systematic error includes uncertainties in the calorimeter energy calibration, in the description of the data by current Monte Carlo models, and in the knowledge of the parton densities. The theoretical error is dominated by the renormalization scale ambiguity.Comment: 25 pages, 6 figures, 3 tables, submitted to Eur. Phys.

Forward pi^0 Production and Associated Transverse Energy Flow in Deep-Inelastic Scattering at HERA

Deep-inelastic positron-proton interactions at low values of Bjorken-x down to x \approx 4.10^-5 which give rise to high transverse momentum pi^0 mesons are studied with the H1 experiment at HERA. The inclusive cross section for pi^0 mesons produced at small angles with respect to the proton remnant (the forward region) is presented as a function of the transverse momentum and energy of the pi^0 and of the four-momentum transfer Q^2 and Bjorken-x. Measurements are also presented of the transverse energy flow in events containing a forward pi^0 meson. Hadronic final state calculations based on QCD models implementing different parton evolution schemes are confronted with the data.Comment: 27 pages, 8 figures and 3 table

Searches at HERA for Squarks in R-Parity Violating Supersymmetry

A search for squarks in R-parity violating supersymmetry is performed in e^+p collisions at HERA at a centre of mass energy of 300 GeV, using H1 data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 37 pb^(-1). The direct production of single squarks of any generation in positron-quark fusion via a Yukawa coupling lambda' is considered, taking into account R-parity violating and conserving decays of the squarks. No significant deviation from the Standard Model expectation is found. The results are interpreted in terms of constraints within the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (MSSM), the constrained MSSM and the minimal Supergravity model, and their sensitivity to the model parameters is studied in detail. For a Yukawa coupling of electromagnetic strength, squark masses below 260 GeV are excluded at 95% confidence level in a large part of the parameter space. For a 100 times smaller coupling strength masses up to 182 GeV are excluded.Comment: 32 pages, 14 figures, 3 table