The Impact of Climate on Economic and Financial Cycles: A Markov-switching Panel Approach

This paper examines the impact of climate shocks on 13 European economies analysing jointly business and financial cycles, in different phases and disentangling the effects for different sector channels. A Bayesian Panel Markov-switching framework is proposed to jointly estimate the impact of extreme weather events on the economies as well as the interaction between business and financial cycles. Results from the empirical analysis suggest that extreme weather events impact asymmetrically across the different phases of the economy and heterogeneously across the EU countries. Moreover, we highlight how the manufacturing output, a component of the industrial production index, constitutes the main channel through which climate shocks impact the EU economies

Alleviating inequality in climate policy costs: An integrated perspective on mitigation, damage and adaptation

Equity considerations play an important role in international climate negotiations. While policy analysis has often focused on equity as it relates to mitigation costs, there are large regional differences in adaptation costs and the level of residual damage. This paper illustrates the relevance of including adaptation and residual damage in equity considerations by determining how the allocation of emission allowances would change to counteract regional differences in total climate costs, defined as the costs of mitigation, adaptation, and residual damage. We compare emission levels resulting from a global carbon tax with two allocations of emission allowances under a global cap-and-trade system: one equating mitigation costs and one equating total climate costs as share of GDP. To account for uncertainties in both mitigation and adaptation, we use a model-comparison approach employing two alternative modeling frameworks with different damage, adaptation cost, and mitigation cost estimates, and look at two different climate goals. Despite the identified model uncertainties, we derive unambiguous results on the change in emission allowance allocation that could lessen the unequal distribution of adaptation costs and residual damages through the financial transfers associated with emission trading

Impacts of a warmer world on space cooling demand in Brazilian households

Air Conditioning (AC) appliances are a highly effective adaptation strategy to rising temperatures, thus making future climate conditions an important driver of space cooling energy demand. The main goal of this study is to assess the impacts of climate change on Cooling Degree Days computed with wet-bulb temperature (CDDwb) and household space cooling demand in Brazil. We compare the needs under three specific warming levels (SWLs) scenarios (1.5 °C, 2 °C and 4 °C) to a baseline with historically observed meteorological parameters by combining CDDwb projections with an end-use model to evaluate the energy requirements of air conditioning. The effects of the climate change were isolated, and no future expansion in AC ownership considered. Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions associated with AC energy demand are also calculated. Results show an increase in both average CDDwb and AC electricity consumption for the global warming scenarios in all Brazilian regions. The Northern region shows the highest increase in CDDwb (187% in CDDwb for SWL 4 °C), while the Southeast presents the highest AC energy consumption response (326% in the AC energy consumption for SWL 4 °C) compared to the baseline. At the national level, CDDwb and the AC energy consumption in all SWLs scenarios grow by 70%, 99% and 190%, respectively

Predictors of morbidity and mortality in patients submitted to cytoreductive surgery plus hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy for ovarian carcinomatosis: A multicenter study

The aim of this retrospective study is to assess the incidence of morbidity and mortality related to cytoreductive surgery (CRS) plus hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy (HIPEC) and to evaluate their predictors, in patients with peritoneal metastasis of ovarian origin. A retrospective multicenter study was carried out investigating results from eight Italian institutions. A total of 276 patients met inclusion criteria. Predictors of morbidity and mortality were evaluated with univariate and multivariate analysis. Overall morbidity was 71.4%, and severe complications occurred in 23.9% of the sample; 60-day mortality was 4.3%. According to univariate logistic regression models, grade 3-4 morbidity was related to Peritoneal Cancer Index (PCI) (OR 1.06; 95% CI 1.02-1.09; p<0.001), number of intraoperative blood transfusions (OR 1.21; 95% CI 1.10-1.34; p<0.001), Completeness of Cytoreduction (CC) score (OR 1.68; 95% CI 1.16-2.44; p=0.006) and number of anastomoses (OR 1.32; 95% CI 1.00-1.73; p=0.046). However, at the multivariate logistic regression analysis, only the number of intraoperative blood transfusions (OR 1.17; 95% CI 1.5-1.30; p=0.004) and PCI (OR 1.04; 95% CI 1.01-1.08; p=0.010) resulted as key predictors of severe morbidity. Furthermore, using multivariate logistic regression model, ECOG score (OR 2.45; 95% CI 1.21-4.93; p=0.012) and the number of severe complications (OR 2.16; 95% CI 1.03-4.52; p=0.042) were recorded as predictors of exitus within 60 days. The combination of CRS and HIPEC for treating peritoneal metastasis of ovarian origin has acceptable morbidity and mortality and, therefore, it can be considered as an option in selected patients

Improved performance of the LHCb Outer Tracker in LHC Run 2

The LHCb Outer Tracker is a gaseous detector covering an area of $5\times 6 m^2$ with 12 double layers of straw tubes. The performance of the detector is presented based on data of the LHC Run 2 running period from 2015 and 2016. Occupancies and operational experience for data collected in $p p$, pPb and PbPb collisions are described. An updated study of the ageing effects is presented showing no signs of gain deterioration or other radiation damage effects. In addition several improvements with respect to LHC Run 1 data taking are introduced. A novel real-time calibration of the time-alignment of the detector and the alignment of the single monolayers composing detector modules are presented, improving the drift-time and position resolution of the detector by 20\%. Finally, a potential use of the improved resolution for the timing of charged tracks is described, showing the possibility to identify low-momentum hadrons with their time-of-flight.Comment: 29 pages, 20 figures, minor changes to match the published versio

Commissioning and performance of the LHCb Silicon Tracker

The LHCb Silicon Tracker is a silicon micro-strip detector with a sensitive area of 12 m2 and a total of 272k readout channels. The Silicon Tracker consists of two parts that use different detector modules. The detector installation was completed by early summer 2008 and the commissioning without beam has reached its final stage, successfully overcoming most of the encountered problems. Currently, the detector has more than 99% of the channels fully functioning. Commissioning with particles has started using beam-induced events from the LHC injection tests in 2008 and 2009. These events allowed initial studies of the detector performance. Especially, the detector modules could be aligned with an accuracy of about 20μm. Furthermore, with the first beam collisions that took place end of 2009 we could further study the performance and improve the alignment of the detector

Search for the rare decay KS0→μ+μ−K_S^0 \to \mu^+ \mu^-

A search for the decay $K_S^0 \to \mu^+ \mu^-$ is performed, based on a data sample of 1.0 fb$^{−1}$ of $pp$ collisions at $\sqrt(s)=7TeV$ collected by the LHCb experiment at the Large Hadron Collider. The observed number of candidates is consistent with the background-only hypothesis, yielding an upper limit of $B(K_S^0 \to \mu^+ \mu^-) < 11(9) × 10^{−9}$ at 95 (90)% confidence level. This limit is a factor of thirty below the previous measurement

Different features of tumor-associated NK cells in patients with low-grade or high-grade peritoneal carcinomatosis

Peritoneal carcinomatosis (PC) is a rare disease defined as diffused implantation of neoplastic cells in the peritoneal cavity. This clinical picture occurs during the evolution of peritoneal tumors, and it is the main cause of morbidity and mortality of patients affected by these pathologies, though cytoreductive surgery with heated intra-peritoneal chemotherapy (CRS/HIPEC) is yielding promising results. In the present study, we evaluated whether the tumor microenvironment of low-grade and high-grade PC could affect the phenotypic and functional features and thus the anti-tumor potential of NK cells. We show that while in the peritoneal fluid (PF) of low-grade PC most CD56dim NK cells show a relatively immature phenotype (NKG2A+KIR\u2013CD57\u2013CD16dim), in the PF of high-grade PC NK cells are, in large majority, mature (CD56dimKIR+CD57+CD16bright). Furthermore, in low-grade PC, PF-NK cells are characterized by a sharp down-regulation of some activating receptors, primarily NKp30 and DNAM-1, while, in high-grade PC, PF-NK cells display a higher expression of the PD-1 inhibitory checkpoint. The compromised phenotype observed in low-grade PC patients corresponds to a functional impairment. On the other hand, in the high-grade PC patients PF-NK cells show much more important defects that only partially reflect the compromised phenotype detected. These data suggest that the PC microenvironment may contribute to tumor escape from immune surveillance by inducing different NK cell impaired features leading to altered anti-tumor activity. Notably, after CRS/HIPEC treatment, the altered NK cell phenotype of a patient with a low-grade disease and favorable prognosis was reverted to a normal one. Our present data offer a clue for the development of new immunotherapeutic strategies capable of restoring the NK-mediated anti-tumor responses in association with the CRS/HIPEC treatment to increase the effectiveness of the current therapy