Approximating the Nonlinear Newsvendor and Single-Item Stochastic Lot-Sizing Problems When Data Is Given by an Oracle

The single-item stochastic lot-sizing problem is to find an inventory replenishment policy in the presence of discrete stochastic demands under periodic review and finite time horizon. A closely related problem is the single-period newsvendor model. It is well known that the newsvendor problem admits a closed formula for the optimal order quantity whenever the revenue and salvage values are linear increasing functions and the procurement (ordering) cost is fixed plus linear. The optimal policy for the single-item lot-sizing model is also well known under similar assumptions. In this paper we show that the classical (single-period) newsvendor model with fixed plus linear ordering cost cannot be approximated to any degree of accuracy when either the demand distribution or the cost functions are given by an oracle. We provide a fully polynomial time approximation scheme for the nonlinear single-item stochastic lot-sizing problem, when demand distribution is given by an oracle, procurement costs are provided as nondecreasing oracles, holding/backlogging/disposal costs are linear, and lead time is positive. Similar results exist for the nonlinear newsvendor problem. These approximation schemes are designed by extending the technique of K-approximation sets and functions.National Science Foundation (U.S.) (Contract CMMI-0758069)United States. Office of Naval Research (Grant N000141110056

Brand Identity and Online Self-Customisation Usefulness Perception

Online self-customisation (OSC) enables customers to tailor their preferences to certain product features via a brand-hosted online platform. Recent literature has given increasing attention to how consumers value OSC. However, extant research is characterised by a scarcity of understanding the effects of brand identity and individual differences on consumer responses to OSC. The purpose of this paper is to examine the mediating role of trust and the moderating role of need for uniqueness on the effects of brand identity prestige and brand identity similarity on consumer perceived usefulness of OSC. A field survey, through mall intercept, was conducted to test this conceptual framework. Our findings advance this field by finding that, not only the brand identity and consumer need for uniqueness, but also the interaction between them may affect consumers’ evaluation of OSC

Strategies for fitting nonlinear ecological models in R, AD Model Builder, and BUGS

Summary: 1. Ecologists often use nonlinear fitting techniques to estimate the parameters of complex ecological models, with attendant frustration. This paper compares three open-source model fitting tools and discusses general strategies for defining and fitting models. 2. R is convenient and (relatively) easy to learn, AD Model Builder is fast and robust but comes with a steep learning curve, while BUGS provides the greatest flexibility at the price of speed. 3. Our model-fitting suggestions range from general cultural advice (where possible, use the tools and models that are most common in your subfield) to specific suggestions about how to change the mathematical description of models to make them more amenable to parameter estimation. 4. A companion web site (https://groups.nceas.ucsb.edu/nonlinear-modeling/projects) presents detailed examples of application of the three tools to a variety of typical ecological estimation problems; each example links both to a detailed project report and to full source code and data

Effect of exercise on fluoride metabolism in adult humans: a pilot study

An understanding of all aspects of fluoride metabolism is critical to identify its biological effects and avoid fluoride toxicity in humans. Fluoride metabolism and subsequently its body retention may be affected by physiological responses to acute exercise. This pilot study investigated the effect of exercise on plasma fluoride concentration, urinary fluoride excretion and fluoride renal clearance following no exercise and three exercise intensity conditions in nine healthy adults after taking a 1-mg Fluoride tablet. After no, light, moderate and vigorous exercise, respectively, the mean (SD) baseline-adjusted i) plasma fluoride concentration was 9.6(6.3), 11.4(6.3), 15.6(7.7) and 14.9(10.0) ng/ml; ii) rate of urinary fluoride excretion over 0–8 h was 46(15), 44(22), 34(17) and 36(17) μg/h; and iii) rate of fluoride renal clearance was 26.5(9.0), 27.2(30.4), 13.1(20.4) and 18.3(34.9) ml/min. The observed trend of a rise in plasma fluoride concentration and decline in rate of fluoride renal clearance with increasing exercise intensity needs to be investigated in a larger trial. This study, which provides the first data on the effect of exercise with different intensities on fluoride metabolism in humans, informs sample size planning for any subsequent definitive trial, by providing a robust estimate of the variability of the effect

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

SummaryBackground The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation