The Search for Invariance: Repeated Positive Testing Serves the Goals of Causal Learning

Positive testing is characteristic of exploratory behavior, yet it seems to be at odds with the aim of information seeking. After all, repeated demonstrations of one’s current hypothesis often produce the same evidence and fail to distinguish it from potential alternatives. Research on the development of scientific reasoning and adult rule learning have both documented and attempted to explain this behavior. The current chapter reviews this prior work and introduces a novel theoretical account—the Search for Invariance (SI) hypothesis—which suggests that producing multiple positive examples serves the goals of causal learning. This hypothesis draws on the interventionist framework of causal reasoning, which suggests that causal learners are concerned with the invariance of candidate hypotheses. In a probabilistic and interdependent causal world, our primary goal is to determine whether, and in what contexts, our causal hypotheses provide accurate foundations for inference and intervention—not to disconfirm their alternatives. By recognizing the central role of invariance in causal learning, the phenomenon of positive testing may be reinterpreted as a rational information-seeking strategy

The rolling problem: overview and challenges

In the present paper we give a historical account -ranging from classical to modern results- of the problem of rolling two Riemannian manifolds one on the other, with the restrictions that they cannot instantaneously slip or spin one with respect to the other. On the way we show how this problem has profited from the development of intrinsic Riemannian geometry, from geometric control theory and sub-Riemannian geometry. We also mention how other areas -such as robotics and interpolation theory- have employed the rolling model.Comment: 20 page

Predicting prostate cancer treatment choices: The role of numeracy, time discounting, and risk attitudes

Prostate cancer is the most common cancer among males in the United States and there is lack of consensus as to whether active surveillance (AS) or radical prostatectomy (RP) is the best course of treatment. In this study we examined the role of three overlooked determinants of decision making about prostate cancer treatment in a hypothetical experiment—numeracy, time discounting, and risk taking in 279 men over age 50 without a prior prostate cancer diagnosis. Results showed that AS was the most frequently chosen option. Furthermore, numeracy and time discounting significantly predicted participants’ preference for AS, whereas a propensity to take risks was associated with a preference for RP. Such insights into the factors that affects cancer treatment preferences may improve tailored decision aids and help physicians be better poised to engage in shared decision-making to improve both patient-reported and clinical outcomes

Efficacy, safety and tolerability of escitalopram in doses up to 50 mg in Major Depressive Disorder (MDD): an open-label, pilot study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Escitalopram is licensed for use at doses up to 20 mg but is used clinically at higher doses. There is limited published data at higher doses and none in the treatment of Major Depressive Disorder (MDD).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This open-label, pilot study was designed to investigate the efficacy, safety and tolerability of escitalopram in doses up to 50 mg in MDD. It was conducted in 60 primary care patients with MDD who had not responded to adequate treatment with citalopram. Patients were treated with escalating doses of escitalopram up to 50 mg for up to 32 weeks until they achieved remission (Montgomery-Asberg Depression Rating Scale [MADRS] ≤8) or failed to tolerate the dose.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Forty-two patients (70%) completed the study. Twenty-one patients (35%) achieved remission with 8 of the 21 patients (38%) needing the 50 mg dose to achieve remission. Median time to remission was 24 weeks and median dose in remission was 30 mg. No significant safety issues were identified although tolerability appeared to decline above a dose of 40 mg with 26% of patients unable to tolerate 50 mg. Twelve (20%) patients had adverse events leading to discontinuation. The most common adverse events were headache (35%), nausea, diarrhoea and nasopharyngitis (all 25%). Minor mean weight gain was found during the study, which did not appear to be dose-related. Half of the patients who completed the study chose to continue treatment with escitalopram rather than taper down the dose at 32 weeks.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Dose escalation with escitalopram above 20 mg may have a useful role in the management of patients with MDD, although further studies are needed to confirm this finding.</p> <p>Trial Registration</p> <p>ClinicalTrials.gov: <a href="http://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT00785434">NCT00785434</a></p

Of, By, and For Which People? Government and Contested Heritage in the American Midwest

Two government-owned and managed heritage sites in Indiana, USA, offer an opportunity to explore the role of governments in adjudicating the competing paradigms of value and contested uses. Strawtown Koteewi is a Hamilton County park and Mounds State Park is part of the Indiana Department of Natural Resources statewide park system. Each site has come under scrutiny in recent years. Strawtown Koteewi is one of the most significant sites in the area for understanding the history of Native peoples. After almost a decade of archaeological excavations, several Native American groups, under the auspices of the Native American Graves Protection and Repatriation Act (NAGPRA), initiated repatriation processes for the recovery of human remains, and some objected to the ongoing archaeological research. At Mounds State Park a coalition of citizens opposed a planned dam project intended to ensure a safe and plentiful water supply and to spur economic development in the area. In each case, the government entities have had to navigate the political landscapes of competing claims about the sites. These case studies expose the fissures between authorized heritage discourse and the paradigms of meaning among the diverse constituencies of the sites, and they highlight the tenuous position of public governance in privileging competing cultural, economic, and social interests. While not unique, the state and county agencies’ positions within these fields of power and their strategic choices reveal some of the barriers and constraints that limit their actions as well as the deep-seated ideologies of policies that perpetuate settler colonial politics in the control and interpretation of indigenous heritage

The ethics of uncertainty for data subjects

Modern health data practices come with many practical uncertainties. In this paper, I argue that data subjects’ trust in the institutions and organizations that control their data, and their ability to know their own moral obligations in relation to their data, are undermined by significant uncertainties regarding the what, how, and who of mass data collection and analysis. I conclude by considering how proposals for managing situations of high uncertainty might be applied to this problem. These emphasize increasing organizational flexibility, knowledge, and capacity, and reducing hazard

A predictive model for the early identification of patients at risk for a prolonged intensive care unit length of stay

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Patients with a prolonged intensive care unit (ICU) length of stay account for a disproportionate amount of resource use. Early identification of patients at risk for a prolonged length of stay can lead to quality enhancements that reduce ICU stay. This study developed and validated a model that identifies patients at risk for a prolonged ICU stay.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We performed a retrospective cohort study of 343,555 admissions to 83 ICUs in 31 U.S. hospitals from 2002-2007. We examined the distribution of ICU length of stay to identify a threshold where clinicians might be concerned about a prolonged stay; this resulted in choosing a 5-day cut-point. From patients remaining in the ICU on day 5 we developed a multivariable regression model that predicted remaining ICU stay. Predictor variables included information gathered at admission, day 1, and ICU day 5. Data from 12,640 admissions during 2002-2005 were used to develop the model, and the remaining 12,904 admissions to internally validate the model. Finally, we used data on 11,903 admissions during 2006-2007 to externally validate the model.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The variables that had the greatest impact on remaining ICU length of stay were those measured on day 5, not at admission or during day 1. Mechanical ventilation, PaO₂: FiO₂ratio, other physiologic components, and sedation on day 5 accounted for 81.6% of the variation in predicted remaining ICU stay. In the external validation set observed ICU stay was 11.99 days and predicted total ICU stay (5 days + day 5 predicted remaining stay) was 11.62 days, a difference of 8.7 hours. For the same patients, the difference between mean observed and mean predicted ICU stay using the APACHE day 1 model was 149.3 hours. The new model's r²was 20.2% across individuals and 44.3% across units.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>A model that uses patient data from ICU days 1 and 5 accurately predicts a prolonged ICU stay. These predictions are more accurate than those based on ICU day 1 data alone. The model can be used to benchmark ICU performance and to alert physicians to explore care alternatives aimed at reducing ICU stay.</p

Standing orders for influenza and pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccination: Correlates identified in a national survey of U.S. Primary care physicians

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Standing orders programs (SOPs) allow non-physician medical staff to assess eligibility and administer vaccines without a specific physician's order. SOPs increase vaccination rates but are underutilized.</p> <p>Method</p> <p>In 2009, correlates of SOPs use for influenza vaccine and pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccination (PPV) were assessed in a nationally representative, stratified random sample of U.S. physicians (n = 880) in family and internal medicine who provided office immunization. The response rate was 67%. Physicians reporting no SOPs, only influenza SOPs, and joint influenza and PPV SOPs were compared using multinomial and logistic regression models to examine individual and practice-level correlates.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>23% reported using SOPs consistently for both influenza vaccine and PPV, and 20% for influenza vaccination only, with the remainder not using SOPs. Practice-level factors that distinguished practices with joint influenza-PPV SOPs included perceived practice openness to change, strong practice teamwork, access to an electronic medical record, presence of an immunization champion in the practice, and access to nurse/physician assistant staff as opposed to medical assistants alone.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>Physicians in practices with SOPs for both vaccines reported greater awareness of ACIP recommendations and/or Medicare regulations and were more likely to agree that SOPs are an effective way to boost vaccination coverage. However, implementation of both influenza and PPV SOPs was also associated with a variety of practice-level factors, including teamwork, the presence of an immunization champion, and greater availability of clinical assistants with advanced training.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Practice-level factors are critical for the adoption of more complex SOPs, such as joint SOPs for influenza and PPV.</p

Search for flavor-changing neutral currents and lepton-family-number violation in two-body D0 decays

Results of a search for the three neutral charm decays, D0 -> mu e, D0 -> mu mu, and D0 -> e e, are presented. This study was based on data collected in Experiment 789 at the Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory using 800 GeV/c proton-Au and proton-Be interactions. No evidence is found for any of the decays. Upper limits on the branching ratios, at the 90% confidence level, are obtained.Comment: 28 pages, 18 figures. Submitted to Physical Review