Climate change and landscape-ecological effects in the Western Mediterranean: future, present and learning from the past

Der westliche Mediterranraum ist eine vom globalen Klimawandel am stärksten betroffenen Regionen weltweit. Klimamodelle sagen einen starken Anstieg der jährlichen Durchschnittstemperaturen auf der Iberischen Halbinsel voraus. Bis zum Ende dieses Jahrhunderts wird mit einem Anstieg der mittleren Temperaturen um bis zu 5 °C gerechnet. Bei einem gleichzeitig starken Rückgang der Jahresniederschläge wird sich in Zukunft die Ressource Wasser drastisch verknappen und das bei einem derzeitigen Rekordwasserverbrauch von 200 Liter pro Tag und Einwohner. Bei Zunahmen von Dürren, Waldbränden, Sturzfluten sowie weiteren Umweltkrisen wie Grundwasserversalzung und -verknappung muss auch mit verschärften ökonomischen Krisen in der Region gerechnet werden. Instrumentelle Klimaaufzeichnungen der letzten hundert Jahre aber auch Geoarchive und archäologische Grabungen aus dem westlichen Mediterranraum belegen, dass klimainduzierte Veränderungen der Landschaft und daraus resultierte Umstellungen der menschlichen Aktivitäten auch in der Vergangenheit nicht die Ausnahme sondern vielmehr die Regel darstellten. (Autorenreferat)The western Mediterranean is one of the regions in the world most strongly affected by global climate change. Climate models predict a strong rise in the mean annual temperatures on the Iberian peninsula. A rise of up to 5 °C is forecast by the end of this century. In combination with a concurrent strong reduction in the annual precipitations, in future there will be a drastic shortage of the resource water, and this at a current record water consumption of 200 litres per head of population per day. In combination with increases in the numbers of droughts, wildfires, flash floods, and other ecological crises -for instance saltwater intrusion and decreases in water availability- exacerbated economic crises in the region must be reckoned with. Instrumental climate records taken in the past one hundred years as well as terrestrial archives und archaeological excavations demonstrate that in the past, too. Climate-induced modifications of Mediterranean ecosystems and resulting changes in human activities are not the exception, but rather the rule. (author's abstract

Management of Global Warming Effects in the European Water Framework Directive: Consideration of Social–Ecological System Features in the Elbe River Basin District

In this study, we examined the extent to which global warming management is currently integrated into the European Water Framework Directive (WFD), the central legal framework for water management in the EU. We focused on the Elbe River Basin District and how global warming is addressed in its water management. We used the social–ecological systems (SES) approach as our theoretical framework, representing an eminent analytical frame of biosphere-based sustainability science. In our study, we analysed core characteristics of SES in the context of global warming to evaluate the effectiveness of current water management in the Elbe River basin concerning long-term changing climate conditions. To determine to what extent each SES feature is considered in the Elbe water management, we applied a scale of 1 to 5. Our results show that the SES feature “scale and openness” is best addressed (score 4.0) by the Elbe River basin management, followed by “context dependency” (score 3.9); however, “non-linearity, uncertainty, unpredictability” (score 3.2), “self-organisation and adaptability” (score 3.1), and “dynamics” (score 3.0) have only moderate impacts. SES features can only be considered comprehensively if global warming is accounted for in an integrated way at a European level. In order to ensure effective implementation, explicit regulations and legally binding obligations are most likely required

On the Way to the Fluvial Anthroposphere—Current Limitations and Perspectives of Multidisciplinary Research

Floodplains represent a global hotspot of sensitive socioenvironmental changes and early human forcing mechanisms. In this review, we focus on the environmental conditions of preindustrial floodplains in Central Europe and the fluvial societies that operated there. Due to their high land-use capacity and the simultaneous necessity of land reclamation and risk minimisation, societies have radically restructured the Central European floodplains. According to the current scientific consensus, up to 95% of Central European floodplains have been extensively restructured or destroyed. Therefore, question arises as to whether or when it is justified to understand Central European floodplains as a ‘Fluvial Anthroposphere’. The case studies available to date show that human-induced impacts on floodplain morphologies and environments and the formation of specific fluvial societies reveal fundamental changes in the medieval and preindustrial modern periods. We aim to contribute to disentangling the questions of when and why humans became a significant controlling factor in Central European floodplain formation, and how humans in interaction with natural processes and other chains of effects have modified floodplains. As a conclusion, we superimpose emerging fields of research concerning the onset of the Fluvial Anthroposphere and provide 10 specific thematic objectives for future multidisciplinary work

Mississippi River discharge over the last ~560,000years — Indications from X-ray fluorescence core-scanning

The long term history of terrigenous flux to the Gulf of Mexico via the Mississippi River is hardly known. We here present geochemical and sedimentological data to approximate the varying Mississippi River sediment influx into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico (GoM) over the last six glacial-interglacial cycles (MIS 1 to 14). Our study is based on the IMAGES sediment core MD02-2576 that was recovered from the DeSoto Canyon and is located ~ 200 km south to the recent Mississippi River delta and ~ 150 km east of the recent coastline of Florida. Concentrations of siliciclastic elements in bulk sediment samples were estimated from XRF scanning and calibrated by single bulk XRF-analyses. Elemental ratios of the sedimentary record correspond to ratios from the Mississippi River catchment rather than to the core close Alabama and Mobile River catchments. The siliciclastic major element potassium (K) with enhanced surface concentrations in the northwestern Mississippi River catchment shows varying occurrence downcore and here serves as a proxy for Mississippi River sediment discharge variability. Changes in sedimentation rate and magnetic susceptibility further support the variations in Mississippi River influx. Our data were compared with Mississippi River terrestrial archives in the form of loess and terrace deposits that back up our interpretations of enhanced glacial phase Mississippi River influx triggered by strengthened fluvial river runoff and changing fluvial and ice sheet dynamics. Mississippi River influx was at a maximum during glacial MIS 2/3, MIS 8 and MIS 10. Late glacial MIS 6 deviates from this pattern being a period of reduced Mississippi River influx at the core location, probably due to a westward shift of the Mississippi River delta

Environmental Drivers of Holocene Forest Development in the Middle Atlas, Morocco

In semi-arid regions subject to rising temperatures and drought, palaeoecological insights into past vegetation dynamics under a range of boundary conditions are needed to develop our understanding of environmental responses to climatic changes. Here, we present a new high-resolution record of vegetation history and fire activity spanning the last 12,000 years from Lake Sidi Ali in the southern Middle Atlas Mountains, Morocco. The record is underpinned by a robust AMS radiocarbon and 210Pb/137Cs chronology and multi-proxy approach allowing direct comparison of vegetation, hydroclimate, and catchment tracers. The record reveals the persistence of steppic landscapes until 10,340 cal yr BP, prevailing sclerophyll woodland with evergreen Quercus until 6,300 cal yr BP, predominance of montane conifers (Cedrus and Cupressaceae) until 1,300 cal yr BP with matorralization and increased fire activity from 4,320 cal yr BP, and major reduction of forest cover after 1,300 cal yr BP. Detailed comparisons between the pollen record of Lake Sidi Ali (2,080m a.s.l.) and previously published data from nearby Tigalmamine (1,626m a.s.l.) highlight common patterns of vegetation change in response to Holocene climatic and anthropogenic drivers, as well as local differences relating to elevation and bioclimate contrasts between the sites. Variability in evergreen Quercus and Cedrus at both sites supports a Holocene summer temperature maximum between 9,000 and 7,000 cal yr BP in contrast with previous large-scale pollen-based climate reconstructions, and furthermore indicates pervasive millennial temperature variability. Millennial-scale cooling episodes are inferred from Cedrus expansion around 10,200, 8,200, 6,100, 4,500, 3,000, and 1,700 cal yr BP, and during the Little Ice Age (400 cal yr BP). A two-part trajectory of Late Holocene forest decline is evident, with gradual decline from 4,320 cal yr BP linked to synergism between pastoralism, increased fire and low winter rainfall, and a marked reduction from 1,300 cal yr BP, attributed to intensification of human activity around the Early Muslim conquest of Morocco. This trajectory, however, does not mask vegetation responses to millennial climate variability. The findings reveal the sensitive response ofMiddle Atlas forests to rapid climate changes and underscore the exposure of the montane forest ecosystems to future warming

Determining the Pace and Magnitude of Lake Level Changes in Southern Ethiopia Over the Last 20,000 Years Using Lake Balance Modeling and SEBAL

The Ethiopian rift is known for its diverse landscape, ranging from arid and semi-arid savannahs to high and humid mountainous regions. Lacustrine sediments and paleo-shorelines indicate water availability fluctuated dramatically from deep fresh water lakes, to shallow highly alkaline lakes, to completely desiccated lakes. To investigate the role lakes have played through time as readily available water sources to humans, an enhanced knowledge of the pace, character and magnitude of these changes is essential. Hydro-balance models are used to calculate paleo-precipitation rates and the potential pace of lake level changes. However, previous models did not consider changes in hydrological connectivity during humid periods in the rift system, which may have led to an overestimation of paleo-precipitation rates. Here we present a comprehensive hydro-balance modeling approach that simulates multiple rift lakes from the southern Ethiopian Rift (lakes Abaya, Chamo, and paleo-lake Chew Bahir) simultaneously, considering their temporal hydrological connectivity during high stands of the African Humid Period (AHP, ~15–5 ka). We further used the Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL) to calculate the evaporation of paleo-lake Chew Bahir's catchment. We also considered the possibility of an additional rainy season during the AHP as previously suggested by numerous studies. The results suggest that an increase in precipitation of 20–30% throughout the southern Ethiopian Rift is necessary to fill paleo-lake Chew Bahir to its overflow level. Furthermore, it was demonstrated that paleo-lake Chew Bahir was highly dependent on the water supply from the upper lakes Abaya and Chamo and dries out within ~40 years if the hydrological connection is cut off and the precipitation amount decreases to present day conditions. Several of such rapid lake level fluctuations, from a freshwater to a saline lake, might have occurred during the termination of the AHP, when humid conditions were less stable. Fast changes in fresh water availability requires high adaptability for humans living in the area and might have exerted severe environmental stress on humans in a sub-generational timescale

Sediment budgeting of short‐term backfilling processes: The erosional collapse of a Carolingian canal construction

Sediment budgeting concepts serve as quantification tools to decipher the erosion and accumulation processes within a catchment and help to understand these relocation processes through time. While sediment budgets are widely used in geomorphological catchment-based studies, such quantification approaches are rarely applied in geoarchaeological studies. The case of Charlemagne's summit canal (also known as Fossa Carolina) and its erosional collapse provides an example for which we can use this geomorphological concept and understand the abandonment of the Carolingian construction site. The Fossa Carolina is one of the largest hydro-engineering projects in Medieval Europe. It is situated in Southern Franconia (48.9876°N, 10.9267°E; Bavaria, southern Germany) between the Altmühl and Swabian Rezat rivers. It should have bridged the Central European watershed and connected the Rhine–Main and Danube river systems. According to our dendrochronological analyses and historical sources, the excavation and construction of the Carolingian canal took place in AD 792 and 793. Contemporary written sources describe an intense backfill of excavated sediment in autumn AD 793. This short-term erosion event has been proposed as the principal reason for the collapse and abandonment of the hydro-engineering project. We use subsurface data (drillings, archaeological excavations, and direct-push sensing) and geospatial data (a LiDAR digital terrain model (DTM), a pre-modern DTM, and a 3D model of the Fossa Carolina] for the identification and sediment budgeting of the backfills. Dendrochronological findings and radiocarbon ages of macro remains within the backfills give clear evidence for the erosional collapse of the canal project during or directly after the construction period. Moreover, our quantification approach allows the detection of the major sedimentary collapse zone. The exceedance of the manpower tipping point may have caused the abandonment of the entire construction site. The spatial distribution of the dendrochronological results indicates a north–south direction of the early medieval construction progress