The impact of data revisions on the robustness of growth determinants: A note on 'determinants of economic growth: will data tell?'

Ciccone and Jarocínski (2010) show that inference in Bayesian model averaging (BMA) can be highly sensitive to small changes in the dependent variable. In particular they demonstrate that the importance of growth determinants in explaining growth varies tremendously over different revisions of Penn World Table (PWT) income data. They conclude that 'agnostic' priors appear too sensible for this strand of growth empirics. In response, we show that the instability found owes much to a specific BMA set-up: the variation in results can be considerably reduced by applying an evenly 'agnostic', but exible prior

Finflows: database for bilateral financial investment stocks and flows

Bilateral financial investments are not commonly available from a single source. Our database Finflows aims at centralising the information on bilateral capital financial stocks and financial flows in a single place. It provides estimates of external assets and liabilities flows between around 80 countries including those from European Union, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Russia, China, Brazil, India and the largest offshore countries. The database contains yearly data from 2000 to the last available year (in general with a 20 months delay). Initially developed by (Hobza & Zeugner, 2014) under the scope of the macroeconomic surveillance work, we provide bilateral financial investment links broken by class of investment such foreign direct investment, banking flows or portfolio investment following the Sixth Edition of the IMF's Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual (BPM6, 2009). The specificity of this database lies in the fact that it includes official intermediated links either via European Central Bank’s funding or other official flows which were providing financial assistance to Euro-area countries in distress helping them to refinance their liabilities. We also consider the investment made during the quantitative easing program of the European Central Bank in 2010 and redirect those inter-banking transactions and customer payments that are settled, in real time, within the Euro-zone system when necessary. Another advantage of the database Finflows relies in the resolution of potential mismatch between countries’ declarations.JRC.B.1-Finance and Econom

Bayesian Model Averaging Employing Fixed and Flexible Priors: The BMS Package for R

This article describes the BMS (Bayesian model sampling) package for R that implements Bayesian model averaging for linear regression models. The package excels in allowing for a variety of prior structures, among them the "binomial-beta" prior on the model space and the so-called "hyper-g" specifications for Zellner's g prior. Furthermore, the BMS package allows the user to specify her own model priors and offers a possibility of subjective inference by setting "prior inclusion probabilities" according to the researcher's beliefs. Furthermore, graphical analysis of results is provided by numerous built-in plot functions of posterior densities, predictive densities and graphical illustrations to compare results under different prior settings. Finally, the package provides full enumeration of the model space for small scale problems as well as two efficient MCMC (Markov chain Monte Carlo) samplers that sort through the model space when the number of potential covariates is large

Using Supra-Covered Bonds to Enhance Liquidity in the Euro Area: Assessment of Advantages for the Banking Sector

The discussion on the necessity of a larger volume of very highly quality liquid assets (VHQLA) in the euro area has been very extensive. The debate on expanding the pool of comparable euro area assets focuses on “safe assets”, often on various combinations of government bonds, most of which would not entail a strong increase in euro VHQLA. This paper explores a dierent option, complementary to the existing ones, based on the creation of a safe European asset backed by fully private assets. The paper proposes the issuance of supra-covered bonds by a central European institution. The latter are bonds issued by the central issuer and backed by covered bonds, which banks would have created using their mortgages as their cover pool. The aim is to increase substantially the outstanding amount of euro VHQLA. Such an asset would also be very beneficial during crisis periods, such as the current COVID19 crisis, by allowing banks to transform mortgages into very high quality liquid assets that can be used for funding and as a collateral in operations with the Eurosystem, thus enhancing the possible credit to sustain small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). This paper assesses the main eects of such a proposal on banks under dierent possible scenarios

Surface states and Rashba-type spin polarization in antiferromagnetic MnBi2_2Te4_4

The layered van der Waals antiferromagnet MnBi$_2$Te$_4$ has been predicted to combine the band ordering of archetypical topological insulators such as Bi$_2$Te$_3$ with the magnetism of Mn, making this material a viable candidate for the realization of various magnetic topological states. We have systematically investigated the surface electronic structure of MnBi$_2$Te$_4$(0001) single crystals by use of spin- and angle-resolved photoelectron spectroscopy experiments. In line with theoretical predictions, the results reveal a surface state in the bulk band gap and they provide evidence for the influence of exchange interaction and spin-orbit coupling on the surface electronic structure.Comment: Revised versio

SHARED SERVICES 2.0: COMPETENCIES AND CAPABILITIES IN A MULTINATIONAL INSTITUTION

Action research and action learning have been applied in a shared service organisation as part of a global financial institute. Shared services aim for benefits, such as economies of scale and quality improvements for internal clients. However, various research indicates that there are also side effects. This research project starts from known issues of a local shared service entity with regard to its shared service delivery to clients and end-users. The concept of competencies and capabilities, as key focus areas to differentiate in competition, is applied through action learning sets. Based on two action cycles, primary and secondary data are captured, analysed and processed. Action learning is achieved for the learning set members for their personal development. The organisation also gains learning and competency from the project. Finally, the project suggests solutions to performance and quality issues as well as knowledge to apply action research and action learning in future projects. Limitations and directions for future research are also presented

Zu weltanschaulichen Einstellungen von Studenten künstlerischer Hoch- und Fachschulen im Vergleich der SIL-Untersuchung

In der ersten repräsentativen Untersuchung von Kunststudenten in der DDR wurden 1986 rund 2.000 Studenten und Studentinnen an 14 Hoch- und Fachschulen der DDR befragt; die Ergebnisse werden mit Befragungen von Studenten anderer Fachrichtungen im gleichen Zeitraum verglichen. Schwerpunkt der Untersuchung war die Frage der religiösen bzw. atheistischen Orientierung in Abhängigkeit von sozialer Herkunft, "weltanschaulicher Erziehung" und politischer Einstellung. Als wichtigster Unterschied gegenüber anderen Fächern wird festgestellt, daß weniger als 50% der Kunststudenten atheistisch sind und von den religiös orientierten fast 90% aus einem christlichen Elternhaus kommen. In der Gesamteinschätzung wird gefolgert, daß sich rund ein Drittel der religiös orientierten Studenten politisch und gesellschaftlich konform verhalte, obwohl deren Interesse an marxistisch-leninistischen Studien gering ist. Allerdings zeige sich auch bei atheistischen Kunststudenten eine zunehmend kritische Haltung gegenüber diesem Studienfach. Obwohl das "Vertauensverhältnis und die Verbundenheit mit der SED und FDJ" nachlasse, bescheinigen die Autoren den Kunststudenten ein großes Interesse am politischen Geschehen in der DDR. (psz