IMPACT OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT GROWTH ON BRAZILIAN NATIVE FORESTS: A COMPUTABLE GENERAL BALANCE ANALYSIS /Impacto do crescimento do Produto Interno Bruto sobre as florestas nativas brasileiras: uma análise de balanço geral computável

Brazil is one of the world's leading producers and exporters of agricultural products. And it should continue to expand its production in the coming decades, thus remaining one of the main providers of food, fiber and bioenergy for domestic and foreign consumption. This study aimed to analyze, through the Static Computable General Equilibrium model, BREA, the impacts on intermediate demand and on the growth of agricultural production necessary for GDP to reach the expected projection for 2030, both for Brazilian macro-regions and for the MATOPIBA as well as the loss of native forest necessary for this to occur. As a result, to compose the GDP growth in the North region, fruit growing would emerge with a growth of 9.2%. In MATOPIBA, soybean growth in suppressed forest areas showed a growth of approximately 9.7%. It is observed that soy would continue to migrate to regions that hold cheap land and without the embargo of the soy moratorium. The total number of forests suppressed in Brazil for this to occur would be 490 thousand hectares. It is concluded that economic growth related to agricultural sectors is also linked to the conversion of areas of native vegetation for the growth of future production of commodities.Brasil es uno de los principales productores y exportadores mundiales de productos agrícolas. Y deberá seguir ampliando su producción en las próximas décadas, manteniéndose así como uno de los principales proveedores de alimentos, fibras y bioenergía para el consumo interno y externo. Este estudio tuvo como objetivo analizar, utilizando el modelo Computable Static General Equilibrium, BREA, los impactos sobre la demanda intermedia y sobre el crecimiento de la producción agrícola necesarios para que el PIB alcance la proyección esperada para 2030, tanto para las macrorregiones brasileñas como para el MATOPIBA así como la pérdida de bosque nativo necesaria para que esto ocurra. En consecuencia, para componer el crecimiento del PIB de la región Norte, la fruticultura crecería un 9,2%. En MATOPIBA, el crecimiento de la soja en áreas de bosque suprimido mostró un aumento de aproximadamente 9,7%. Se observa que la soja seguiría migrando a regiones que tienen tierra barata y sin el embargo de la moratoria de la soja. La cantidad total de bosques suprimidos en Brasil para que esto suceda sería de 490.000 hectáreas. Se concluye que el crecimiento económico relacionado con los sectores agrícolas también está ligado a la conversión de áreas de vegetación nativa para el crecimiento de la futura producción de commodities.The Brazil is one of the world's leading producers and exporters of agricultural products, and it should continue to expand its production in the coming decades, remaining one of the main providers of food, fiber, and bioenergy for domestic and foreign consumption. This study aimed to analyze, by using Static Computable General Equilibrium model (BREA), the impacts on intermediate demand and the growth of agricultural production necessary for GDP to reach the expected projection for 2030, both for Brazilian macro-regions and for the MATOPIBA as well as the loss of native forest necessary for this happens. As a result, to compose the GDP growth in the North region, fruit growing would emerge with an increase of 9.2%. In MATOPIBA, soybean growth in suppressed forest areas showed an elevation of approximately 9.7%. It is observed that soy would continue to migrate to regions that hold cheap land and without the soybean moratorium embargo. The total amount of forests suppressed in Brazil for the expected economic growth to occur would be 490,000 ha. It is concluded that the economic growth related to the agricultural sectors is also linked to the conversion of native vegetation areas for future economic growth.   Resumo: O Brasil é um dos principais produtores e exportadores mundiais de produtos agrícolas e deve continuar expandindo sua produção nas próximas décadas, mantendo-se como um dos principais fornecedores de alimentos, fibras e bioenergia para consumo interno e externo. Este estudo teve como objetivo analisar, por meio do modelo de Equilíbrio Geral Estático Computável (BREA), os impactos sobre a demanda intermediária e o crescimento da produção agrícola necessários para que o PIB atinja a projeção esperada para 2030, tanto para as macrorregiões brasileiras quanto para o MATOPIBA como bem como a perda de mata nativa necessária para que isso aconteça. Com isso, para compor o crescimento do PIB da região Norte, a fruticultura despontaria com crescimento de 9,2%. No MATOPIBA, o crescimento da soja em áreas de floresta suprimida apresentou uma elevação de aproximadamente 9,7%. Observa-se que a soja continuaria migrando para regiões que possuem terras baratas e sem o embargo da moratória da soja. A quantidade total de florestas suprimidas no Brasil para que ocorra o crescimento econômico esperado seria de 490.000 ha. Conclui-se que o crescimento econômico relacionado aos setores agropecuários também está atrelado à conversão de áreas de vegetação nativa para o crescimento econômico futuro

Impactos da agricultura de baixo carbono no Brasil: uma aplicação de EGC

Brazil is considered one of the major players in World agriculture. Besides the economic relevance of agriculture and livestock productions in Brazil, the country has an active role in the international discussion about climate change. The agricul- ture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) sector is the main source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. It is a peculiar pattern among developing countries. At COP-15 2009, Brazil made a voluntary commitment to reduce emissions by 37% until 2025 and by 43% until 2030 compared to 2005 levels. The agricultural and livestock sectors are responsible to contribute With 22.5% of this total. The Brazil- ian Government released in the same year the Low Carbon Agriculture Plan (ABC Plan) as part of National Policy for Climate Change (PNMC) to achieve the GHG emissions reduction in the AFOLU sector. The ABC Plan has several actions, e.g., recover 15 million hectares (Mha) of degraded pasture, and increase by 4 Mha the integrated systems (crop-livestock integration and/or crop-livestock-forestry inte- gration). The objective of this thesis is to evaluate the economic impacts and the land-use changes resulting from these actions present in the ABC Plan, such as pasture recovery (PR) and integrated systems (IS). I have built a new computable general equilibrium model (CGE) (BREA version 1.0) With detailed representation of six regions in Brazil representing the economic relevance and agricultural frontier. The regions are: South, Southeast, North (Amazon biome), Center-West (Without Amazon biome), Northeast, and Northeast Cerrado (Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí, and Bahia States) Which is considered the neW agricultural frontier in Brazil. The model represents several land uses, agricultural sectors, and it is the first CGE model to explicitly represent these technologies. Under different simulated scenarios, the outcomes indicate that the higher supply of recovered areas With high productivity pastures, combined With the integrated systems, promotes the land sparing effect. There is a reduction in the pressure to clear natural and forest areas made by live- stock sector. Also, there is a decrease in the cropland use and an increase in the area of planted forest. However, regional results show that regions in the agricultural frontier respond differently to the ABC Plan. In the Center-West and North regions the pasture area increases more than recovered areas. At the same time, the crop land area is converted to high quality pasture. In the South and Southeast regions the pasture area increases less than the recovered areas. It means that part of this area is converted in cropland, forest or secondary vegetation. At macroeconomic level, there are welfare gains in all regions, except in the Northeast and Northeast Cerrado regions. Also, regional GDP changes indicate significant losses in these regions. Modern compensation mechanisms should be develop to avoid these losses increasing the production capacity and the technology absorption in these regions. Considering the economic costs of PR and IS the model projects R$39 billion (2009 values). This value is significantly lower compared to those projected in the origi- nal text of the ABC Plan (around R$ 37 billion for PR and R$57 billion for IS). The actual adoption level of resources present in the ABC Program is also lower compared to the value projected by the model. By the end of 2015/2016 crop-year the volume of credit taken by farmers reached R$ 13.8 billion, including all actions present in the ABC Plan and not only PR and IS. It suggests that if the adoption of the ABC credit continue in a low rate the goals of the ABC Plan Will not be met.Além da relevância econômica, o setor agrícola fez com que o Brasil assumisse um papel ativo na discussão internacional das mudanças climáticas. O setor de agri- cultura, floresta e outros usos da terra (AFOLU) é a principal fonte de emissão de gases de efeito estufa no país, padrão peculiar entre os países em desenvolvimento. Durante a Conferência das Nações Unidas sobre as Mudanças Climáticas de 2009 (COP-15) o país assumiu o compromisso voluntário de reduzir suas emissões em 37 até 2025 e em 43% até 2030 em relação aos níveis de 2005. O setor agropecuario é responsável por contribuir com 22,5% do compromisso voluntario. Afim de atin- gir essa meta, foi criado em 2009 o Plano Setorial de Mitigação e de Adaptação as Mudanças Climáticas para a Consolidação de uma Economia de Baixa Emissão de Carbono na Agricultura (Plano ABC). O Plano ABC faz parte da Política Nacional de Mudanças Climáticas (PNMC). Entre as diversas ações do Plano ABC, estão a re- cuperação de 15 milhões de hectares (Mha) de pastagens degradadas e aumentar em 4 Mha as areas de integração lavoura-pecuaria (iLP) e / ou lavoura-pecuaria-floresta (iLPF). O objetivo da tese é avaliar os impactos econômicos e de mudança no uso da terra decorrentes dessas duas ações presentes no Plano ABC. Para tal, foi con- struído um modelo de equilíbrio geral computavel (EGC) (BREA versão 1.0) com representação detalhada de seis grandes regiões brasileiras divididas por relevância econômica e fronteira agrícola: Sul, Sudeste, Norte (bioma Amazônia), Centro-Oeste (sem o bioma Amazônia), Nordeste, e Nordeste Cerrado (Estados do Maranhão, To- cantins, Piauí e Bahia) que é considerada a nova fronteira agrícola brasileira. O modelo representa diversos usos da terra com desagregação setorial agropecuaria, e é o primeiro modelo de EGC a explicitamente representar a implementação das tecnologias do Plano ABC. Sob diferentes cenários simulados, os resultados indicam que a maior oferta de pastagens recuperadas e com alta produtividade, somadas as tecnologias iLP e iLPF, promovem o efeito poupador de terra como resultado agre- gado. Ha redução na pressão que a atividade de pecuária promove sobre as áreas naturais e florestas. Ao mesmo tempo, há queda das áreas destinadas às atividades de grãos, principalmente soja e milho, e aumento da area de florestas plantadas. Entretanto, os resultados regionais mostram que as regiões de fronteira agrícola respondem diferentemente as ações do Plano ABC. Nas regiões Centro-Oeste e Norte as pastagens crescem mais do que as areas recuperadas, sendo que parte das áreas de culturas são convertidas para pasto de boa qualidade. Nas regiões Sudeste e Sul essas pastagens aumentam menos do que a area de pastagens recuperadas, o que significa que parte das pastagens boas são convertidas em areas de culturas ou em florestas e áreas de vegetação secundária. Em termos macroeconômicos, percebe-se ganhos de bem-estar para as regiões brasileiras, com exceção das regiões do Nordeste e Nordeste Cerrado. Ademais, a variação do PIB regional indica queda expressiva nessas regiões. Esses resultados sugerem que o Plano ABC aumenta as disparidades regionais no Brasil evidenciando que o desenho de políticas públicas precisa levar em conta tais diferenças. A pesquisa sugere mecanismos modernos de compensação de perdas reestruturando as cadeias de valor regionais, para que no longo prazo aumente a capacidade de produção e absorção de tecnologias. Em termos de custo econômico, o modelo indica que para o atingimento das metas do Plano ABC refer- entes a recuperação de pastagens e sistemas integrados seriam necessários cerca de R$39 bilhões (valores nominais de 2009), valor inferior aos valores projetados no lançamento do Plano ABC (cerca de R$ 37 bilhões para recupeção de pastagens e R$57 bilhões para iLP e iLPF). O atual nível de adoção de recursos do Programa ABC é bem inferior ao montante necessario projetado no presente estudo. Até o fi- nal do ano safra 2015/2016 os desembolsos haviam alcançado quase R$ 13,8 bilhões, incluindo os gastos não apenas com recuperação de pastagens e iLPF, mas também com as demais linhas do programa, como o plantio direto e o tratamento de dejetos de animais. Essa constatação sugere que, a continuar o ritmo atual observado de adoção do crédito do Programa ABC, as metas do Plano ABC no ambito da Política Nacional de Mudança do Clima não serão atingidas.Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de Minas Gerai

Uma avaliação da capacidade de pagamento de financiamentos em projetos de fruticultura no PRONAF em Pelotas/RS

The Programa Nacional de Fortalecimento da Agricultura Familiar (PRONAF) represents one of the most important conquests of social movements in contemporary Brazil. The program was created as the State’s response to the pressures of rural labor movement, carried out since the late 1980s, with the purpose of providing agricultural credit and institutional support to small farmers who were being priced out of the then existing policies and had serious difficulties in remaining in the countryside. Financial support for agricultural activities is correlated with the ability that this sector of the Brazilian economy has to create guarantees and capacity to pay. As funding is granted it is expected the same time reducing risk and default and that the ultimate goals of public policy are achieved. The risk in agricultural financing, through fluctuations in market prices or weather, which directly affect the income of agricultural production units, reinforces the range limit of financial services. The measure of ability to pay used is the ratio of the value of net farm revenue and the amount to be repaid in the contract. The simulation of specific scenarios, first with fixed price and fixed costs in relation to gross income was not sufficient to guide the decision making of funding; the second scenario with fixed price and variable costs was more efficient, but with restrictions with price variation; the latter scenario applied the Monte Carlo Method and this was useful in gauging the decision-making under uncertainty in agricultural prices, contributing to the reduction of default, since the real price that generates the ability to pay the contract is known.Sem bolsaO Programa Nacional de Fortalecimento da Agricultura Familiar (PRONAF) representa uma das mais importantes conquistas dos movimentos sociais do Brasil contemporâneo. O programa foi criado como resposta do Estado às pressões do movimento sindical rural, realizadas desde o final da década de 1980, com a finalidade de prover crédito agrícola e apoio institucional aos pequenos produtores rurais que vinham sendo alijados das políticas públicas até então existentes e encontravam sérias dificuldades de se manter no campo. O apoio financeiro às atividades agropecuárias está correlacionado com a capacidade que este setor da economia brasileira possui de gerar garantias e ao mesmo tempo capacidade de pagamento. À medida que os financiamentos são concedidos espera-se ao mesmo tempo redução de risco e inadimplência e que os objetivos finais da política pública sejam alcançados. A presença do risco em financiamentos agrícolas, através de oscilações de preços de mercado ou intempéries climáticas, as quais afetam diretamente a renda agrícola das unidades de produção, reforça o limite de alcance dos serviços financeiros. A medida de capacidade de pagamento utilizada é a razão entre o valor da receita agrícola líquida e o valor a ser reembolsado nas parcelas do contrato. A simulação de cenários específicos, primeiramente com preço fixo e custos fixos em relação à renda bruta não se mostrou suficiente para orientar a decisão da tomada dos financiamentos; o segundo cenário com preço fixo e custos variáveis mostrou-se mais eficiente, porém ainda com restrições com relação à variação dos preços; no último cenário aplicou-se o Método de Monte Carlo e este mostrou-se útil para balizar a tomada de decisão em condições de incerteza dos preços agrícolas, contribuindo também com a redução da inadimplência, uma vez que o preço real que gera capacidade de pagamento do contrato é conhecido

Climate Impacts on Agriculture: Searching for Keys under the Streetlight

This paper provides a critical assessment of the literature estimating the consequences of climate impacts in agriculture and the food system. This literature focuses overwhelmingly on the impact of elevated CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere, higher temperatures and changing precipitation on staple crop yields. While critically important for food security, we argue that researchers have gravitated to measuring impacts ‘under the streetlight’ where data and models are plentiful. We argue that prior work has largely neglected the vast majority of potential economic impacts of climate change on agriculture. A broader view must extend the impacts analysis to inputs beyond land, including the consequences of climate change for labor productivity, as well as the rate of total factor productivity growth in the face of more rapidly depreciating knowledge capital. This broader view must also focus more attention on non-staple crops, which, while less important from a caloric point of view, are critically important in redressing current micronutrient deficiencies in many diets around the world. The paper closes with numerical simulations that demonstrate the extent to which limited input and output coverage of climate impacts can lead to considerable underestimation of the consequences for food security and economic welfare – particularly in the poorest regions of the world

Climate Impacts on Agriculture: Searching for Keys under the Streetlight

This paper provides a critical assessment of the literature estimating the consequences of climate impacts in agriculture and the food system. This literature focuses overwhelmingly on the impact of elevated CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere, higher temperatures and changing precipitation on staple crop yields. While critically important for food security, we argue that researchers have gravitated to measuring impacts ‘under the streetlight’ where data and models are plentiful. We argue that prior work has largely neglected the vast majority of potential economic impacts of climate change on agriculture. A broader view must extend the impacts analysis to inputs beyond land, including the consequences of climate change for labor productivity, as well as the rate of total factor productivity growth in the face of more rapidly depreciating knowledge capital. This broader view must also focus more attention on non-staple crops, which, while less important from a caloric point of view, are critically important in redressing current micronutrient deficiencies in many diets around the world. The paper closes with numerical simulations that demonstrate the extent to which limited input and output coverage of climate impacts can lead to considerable underestimation of the consequences for food security and economic welfare – particularly in the poorest regions of the world

Margins of Adaptation to Human Heat Stress: Local, National, and Global Socioeconomic Responses

The majority of agricultural climate impact studies focus on crop yields, ignoring the impacts on labor productivity. The few studies on global labor productivity impacts of climate tend to ignore socioeconomic adaptations. This study provides a multi-scale and multi-sector analysis of how the socioeconomic system responds to lower labor capacity due to climate-induced heat stress. Combining the GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project) framework with high-resolution projections of climate and population, we quantify the cascading economic impacts of heat stress as it alters labor capacity in both the agricultural and non-agricultural sectors. Then we investigate the role of different adaptation solutions at local, regional, and global scales. This includes investing in automation, changing production location, labor migration, domestic and international trade, and changes in patterns of consumption as well as in the changes in the structure of national economies

Spillover effects of rural credit: a CGE application for Brazilian regions

This research aims to determine the spillover effects of rural credit promoted by the interest rate equalization policy (ETJ) on the Brazilian regions. This study uses the General Equilibrium Analysis Project for the Brazilian Economy (PAEG) to perform the analytical simulations. The results suggest that food, chemical, plastic and rubber, textile, and wood and furniture industries are indirectly positively affected by ETJ policy in Southern, Southeastern and Midwestern Brazil. The effects on service industry is small for all regions. For poor regions like the Northern and Northeastern, the results suggest a better public policy planning to maximize the direct and indirect effects

Margins of Adaptation to Human Heat Stress: Local, National, and Global Socioeconomic Responses

The majority of agricultural climate impact studies focus on crop yields, ignoring the impacts on labor productivity. The few studies on global labor productivity impacts of climate tend to ignore socioeconomic adaptations. This study provides a multi-scale and multi-sector analysis of how the socioeconomic system responds to lower labor capacity due to climate-induced heat stress. Combining the GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project) framework with high-resolution projections of climate and population, we quantify the cascading economic impacts of heat stress as it alters labor capacity in both the agricultural and non-agricultural sectors. Then we investigate the role of different adaptation solutions at local, regional, and global scales. This includes investing in automation, changing production location, labor migration, domestic and international trade, and changes in patterns of consumption as well as in the changes in the structure of national economies

Transportation Cost, Agricultural Production and Cropland Expansion in Brazil: A Multi-scale Analysis

Transportation cost has played an increasingly important role in Brazil agriculture, as the agricultural production frontier expands to inland area with less developed transportation network. High transportation cost would result in less agricultural profitability, which further reduces input use and causes lower yield. To deal with this problem, Brazil has set ambitious plan on improving transportation infrastructure, but its impact on agricultural production and deforestation remains unknown. To research the implications of transportation cost for Brazil agriculture and environment, we developed an innovation method of estimating transportation cost on spatial level for Brazil, and research the impact of projected transportation cost reduction with a grid-resolving partial equilibrium model on Brazilian agriculture, on national, state level and spatial level. Results indicates that the reduction of transportation cost causes moderate increase in both crop production and cropland expansion. However, that impact shows strong variance on State level, causing concentration of input allocations and output production to states of Mato Grosso and Bahia. Finally, spatial pattern within each state are also identified, which would contribute to local-targeted agricultural and transportation policy making

Transportation Cost, Agricultural Production and Cropland Expansion in Brazil: A Multi-scale Analysis

Transportation cost has played an increasingly important role in Brazil agriculture, as the agricultural production frontier expands to inland area with less developed transportation network. High transportation cost would result in less agricultural profitability, which further reduces input use and causes lower yield. To deal with this problem, Brazil has set ambitious plan on improving transportation infrastructure, but its impact on agricultural production and deforestation remains unknown. To research the implications of transportation cost for Brazil agriculture and environment, we developed an innovation method of estimating transportation cost on spatial level for Brazil, and research the impact of projected transportation cost reduction with a grid-resolving partial equilibrium model on Brazilian agriculture, on national, state level and spatial level. Results indicates that the reduction of transportation cost causes moderate increase in both crop production and cropland expansion. However, that impact shows strong variance on State level, causing concentration of input allocations and output production to states of Mato Grosso and Bahia. Finally, spatial pattern within each state are also identified, which would contribute to local-targeted agricultural and transportation policy making