On the Detection of Supermassive Primordial Stars. II. Blue Supergiants

Supermassive primordial stars in hot, atomically-cooling haloes at $z \sim$ 15 - 20 may have given birth to the first quasars in the universe. Most simulations of these rapidly accreting stars suggest that they are red, cool hypergiants, but more recent models indicate that some may have been bluer and hotter, with surface temperatures of 20,000 - 40,000 K. These stars have spectral features that are quite distinct from those of cooler stars and may have different detection limits in the near infrared (NIR) today. Here, we present spectra and AB magnitudes for hot, blue supermassive primordial stars calculated with the TLUSTY and CLOUDY codes. We find that photometric detections of these stars by the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) will be limited to $z \lesssim$ 10 - 12, lower redshifts than those at which red stars can be found, because of quenching by their accretion envelopes. With moderate gravitational lensing, Euclid and the Wide-Field Infrared Space Telescope (WFIRST) could detect blue supermassive stars out to similar redshifts in wide-field surveys.Comment: 9 pages, 5 figures, accepted by MNRA

Prospects for CDM sub-halo detection using high angular resolution observations

In the CDM scenario, dark matter halos are assembled hierarchically from smaller subunits. A long-standing problem with this picture is that the number of sub-halos predicted by CDM simulations is orders of magnitudes higher than the known number of satellite galaxies in the vicinity of the Milky Way. A plausible way out of this problem could be that the majority of these sub-halos somehow have so far evaded detection. If such "dark galaxies" do indeed exist, gravitational lensing may offer one of the most promising ways to detect them. Dark matter sub-halos in the 1e6 - 1e10 solar mass range should cause strong gravitational lensing on (sub)milliarcsecond scales. We study the feasibility of a strong lensing detection of dark sub-halos by deriving the image separations expected for density profiles favoured by recent simulations and comparing these to the angular resolution of both existing and upcoming observational facilities. We find that there is a reasonable probability to detect sub-halo lensing effects in high resolution observations at radio wavelengths, such as produced by the upcoming VSOP-2 satellite, and thereby test the existence of dark galaxies.Comment: 9 pages, 5 figures, Proceedings for "The Universe under the Microscope" (AHAR 2008), held in Bad Honnef (Germany) in April 2008, to be published in Journal of Physics: Conference Series by Institute of Physics Publishing, R. Schoedel, A. Eckart, S. Pfalzner, and E. Ros (eds.

Strong lensing by subhalos in the dwarf-galaxy mass range I: Image separations

The cold dark matter scenario predicts that a large number of dark subhalos should be located within the halo of each Milky-way sized galaxy. One tell-tale signature of such dark subhalos could be additional milliarcsecond-scale image splitting of quasars previously known to be multiply-imaged on arcsecond scales. Here, we estimate the image separations for the subhalo density profiles favoured by recent N-body simulations, and compare these to the angular resolution of both existing and upcoming observational facilities. We find, that the image separations produced are very sensitive to the exact subhalo density profile assumed, but in all cases considerably smaller than previous estimates based on the premise that subhalos can be approximated by singular isothermal spheres. Only the most optimistic subhalo models produce image separations that would be detectable with current technology, and many models produce image separations that will remain unresolved with all telescopes expected to become available in the foreseeable future. Detections of dark subhalos through image-splitting effects will therefore be far more challenging than currently believed, albeit not necessarily impossible.Comment: 7 pages, 3 figures, accepted for publication in Ap

Boreal forest floor greenhouse gas emissions across a Pleurozium schreberi-dominated, wildfire-disturbed chronosequence

The boreal forest is a globally critical biome for carbon cycling. Its forests are shaped by wildfire events that affect ecosystem properties and climate feedbacks including greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Improved understanding of boreal forest floor processes is needed to predict the impacts of anticipated increases in fire frequency, severity, and extent. In this study, we examined relationships between time since last wildfire (TSF), forest floor soil properties, and GHG emissions (CO2, CH4, N2O) along a Pleurozium schreberi-dominated chronosequence in mid- to late succession located in northern Sweden. Over three growing seasons in 2012–2014, GHG flux measurements were made in situ and samples were collected for laboratory analyses. We predicted that P. schreberi-covered forest floor GHG fluxes would be related to distinct trends in the soil properties and microbial community along the wildfire chronosequence. Although we found no overall effect of TSF on GHG emissions, there was evidence that soil C/N, one of the few properties to show a trend with time, was inversely linked to ecosystem respiration. We also found that local microclimatic conditions and site-dependent properties were better predictors of GHG fluxes than TSF. This shows that site-dependent co-variables (that is, forest floor climate and plant-soil properties) need to be considered as well as TSF to predict GHG emissions as wildfires become more frequent, extensive and severe

The nature of z ~ 2.3 Lyman-alpha emitters

We study the multi-wavelength properties of a set of 171 Ly-alpha emitting candidates at redshift z = 2.25 found in the COSMOS field, with the aim of understanding the underlying stellar populations in the galaxies. We especially seek to understand what the dust contents, ages and stellar masses of the galaxies are, and how they relate to similar properties of Ly-alpha emitters at other redshifts. The candidates here are shown to have different properties from those of Ly-alpha emitters found at higher redshift, by fitting the spectral energy distributions (SEDs) using a Monte-Carlo Markov-Chain technique and including nebular emission in the spectra. The stellar masses, and possibly the dust contents, are higher, with stellar masses in the range log M_* = 8.5 - 11.0 M_sun and A_V = 0.0 - 2.5 mag. Young population ages are well constrained, but the ages of older populations are typically unconstrained. In 15% of the galaxies only a single, young population of stars is observed. We show that the Ly-alpha fluxes of the best fit galaxies are correlated with their dust properties, with higher dust extinction in Ly-alpha faint galaxies. Testing for whether results derived from a light-weighted stack of objects correlate to those found when fitting individual objects we see that stellar masses are robust to stacking, but ages and especially dust extinctions are derived incorrectly from stacks. We conclude that the stellar properties of Ly-alpha emitters at z = 2.25 are different from those at higher redshift and that they are diverse. Ly-alpha selection appears to be tracing systematically different galaxies at different redshifts.Comment: 15 pages, 11 figures, 8 tables, accepted in A&A. Table 6 available in full from the author

Estimating attendance for breast cancer screening in ethnic groups in London

BACKGROUND: Breast screening uptake in London is below the Government's target of 70% and we investigate whether ethnicity affects this. Information on the ethnicity for the individual women invited is unavailable, so we use an area-based method similar to that routinely used to derive a geographical measure for socioeconomic deprivation. METHODS: We extracted 742,786 observations on attendance for routine appointments between 2004 and 2007 collected by the London Quality Assurance Reference Centre. Each woman was assigned to a lower super output (LSOA) based on her postcode of residence. The proportions of the ethnic groups within each LSOA are known, so that the likelihood of a woman belonging to White, Black and Asian groups can be assigned. We investigated screening attendance by age group, socioeconomic deprivation using the Index of Deprivation 2004 income quintile, invitation type and breast screening service. Using logistic regression analysis we calculated odds ratios for attendance based on ethnic composition of the population, adjusting for age, socioeconomic status, the invitation type and screening service. RESULTS: The unadjusted attendance odds ratios were high for the White population (OR: 3.34 95% CI [3.26-3.42]) and low for the Black population (0.13 [0.12-0.13]) and the Asian population (0.55 [0.53-0.56]). Multivariate adjustment reduced the differences, but the Black population remained below unity (0.47 [0.44-0.50]); while the White (1.30 [1.26-1.35]) and Asian populations (1.10 [1.05-1.15]) were higher. There was little difference in the attendance between age groups. Attendance was highest for the most affluent group and fell sharply with increasing deprivation. For invitation type, the routine recall was higher than the first call. There were wide variations in the attendance for different ethnic groups between the individual screening services. CONCLUSIONS: Overall breast screening attendance is low in communities with large Black populations, suggesting the need to improve participation of Black women. Variations in attendance for the Asian population require further investigation at an individual screening service level

On the detection of supermassive primordial stars

The collapse of supermassive primordial stars in hot, atomically-cooled halos may have given birth to the first quasars at $z \sim$ 15 - 20. Recent numerical simulations of these rapidly accreting stars reveal that they are cool, red hypergiants shrouded by dense envelopes of pristine atomically-cooled gas at 6,000 - 8,000 K, with luminosities $L$ $\gtrsim$ 10$^{10}$ L$_{\odot}$. Could such luminous but cool objects be detected as the first stage of quasar formation in future near infrared (NIR) surveys? We have now calculated the spectra of supermassive primordial stars in their birth envelopes with the Cloudy code. We find that some of these stars will be visible to JWST at $z \lesssim$ 20 and that with modest gravitational lensing Euclid and WFIRST could detect them out to $z \sim$ 10 - 12. Rather than obscuring the star, its accretion envelope enhances its visibility in the NIR today by reprocessing its short-wavelength flux into photons that are just redward of the Lyman limit in the rest frame of the star.Comment: 6 pages, 4 figures, accepted by ApJ

Are benefits and harms in mammography screening given equal attention in scientific articles? A cross-sectional study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The CONSORT statement specifies the need for a balanced presentation of both benefits and harms of medical interventions in trial reports. However, invitations to screening and newspaper articles often emphasize benefits and downplay or omit harms, and it is known that scientific articles can be influenced by conflicts of interest. We wanted to determine if a similar imbalance occurs in scientific articles on mammography screening and if it is related to author affiliation.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We searched PubMed in April 2005 for articles on mammography screening that mentioned a benefit or a harm and that were published in 2004 in English. Data extraction was performed by three independent investigators, two unblinded and one blinded for article contents, and author names and affiliation, as appropriate. The extracted data were compared and discrepancies resolved by two investigators in a combined analysis. We defined three groups of authors: (1) authors in specialties unrelated to mammography screening, (2) authors in screening-affiliated specialties (radiology or breast cancer surgery) who were not working with screening, or authors funded by cancer charities, and (3) authors (at least one) working directly with mammography screening programmes. We used a data extraction sheet with 17 items described as important benefits and harms in the 2002 WHO/IARC-report on breast cancer screening.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We identified 854 articles, and 143 were eligible for the study. Most were original research. Benefits were mentioned more often than harms (96% vs 62%, P < 0.001). Fifty-five (38%) articles mentioned only benefits, whereas seven (5%) mentioned only harms (P < 0.001). Overdiagnosis was mentioned in 35 articles (24%), but was more often downplayed or rejected in articles that had authors working with screening, (6/15; 40%) compared with authors affiliated by specialty or funding (1/6; 17%), or authors unrelated with screening (1/14; 7%) (P = 0.03). Benefits in terms of reduced breast cancer mortality were mentioned in 109 (76%) articles, and was more often provided as a relative risk reduction than an absolute risk reduction, where quantified (45 articles (31%) versus 6 articles (3%) (P < 0.001)).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Scientific articles tend to emphasize the major benefits of mammography screening over its major harms. This imbalance is related to the authors' affiliation.</p

21-cm cosmology

Imaging the Universe during the first hundreds of millions of years remains one of the exciting challenges facing modern cosmology. Observations of the redshifted 21 cm line of atomic hydrogen offer the potential of opening a new window into this epoch. This would transform our understanding of the formation of the first stars and galaxies and of the thermal history of the Universe. A new generation of radio telescopes is being constructed for this purpose with the first results starting to trickle in. In this review, we detail the physics that governs the 21 cm signal and describe what might be learnt from upcoming observations. We also generalize our discussion to intensity mapping of other atomic and molecular lines.Comment: 64 pages, 20 figures, submitted to Reports on Progress in Physics, comments welcom

Impacts of the Finnish service screening programme on breast cancer rates

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The aim of the current study was to examine impacts of the Finnish breast cancer (BC) screening programme on the population-based incidence and mortality rates. The programme has been historically targeted to a rather narrow age band, mainly women of ages 50–59 years.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The study was based on the information on breast cancer during 1971–2003 from the files of the Finnish Cancer Registry. Incidence, cause-specific mortality as well as incidence-based (refined) mortality from BC were analysed with Poisson regression. Age-specific incidence and routine cause-specific mortality were estimated for the most recent five-year period available; incidence-based mortality, respectively, for the whole steady state of the programme, 1992–2003.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>There was excess BC incidence with actual screening ages; incidence in ages 50–69 was increased 8% (95 CI 2.9–13.4). There was an increasing temporal tendency in the incidence of localised BC; and, respectively, a decrease in that of non-localised BC. The latter was most consistent in age groups where screening had been on-going several years or eventually after the last screen. The refined mortality rate from BC diagnosed in ages 50–69 was decreased with -11.1% (95% CI -19.4, -2.1).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The current study demonstrates that BC screening in Finland is effective in reducing mortality rates from breast cancers, even though the impact on the population level is smaller than expected based on the results from randomised trials among women screened in age 50 to 69. This may be explained by the rather young age group targeted in our country. Consideration whether to targeted screening up to age 69 is warranted.</p