Impact of the Topology of Global Macroeconomic Network on the Spreading of Economic Crises

Throughout economic history, the global economy has experienced recurring crises. The persistent recurrence of such economic crises calls for an understanding of their generic features rather than treating them as singular events. The global economic system is a highly complex system and can best be viewed in terms of a network of interacting macroeconomic agents. In this regard, from the perspective of collective network dynamics, here we explore how the topology of the global macroeconomic network affects the patterns of spreading of economic crises. Using a simple toy model of crisis spreading, we demonstrate that an individual country's role in crisis spreading is not only dependent on its gross macroeconomic capacities, but also on its local and global connectivity profile in the context of the world economic network. We find that on one hand clustering of weak links at the regional scale can significantly aggravate the spread of crises, but on the other hand the current network structure at the global scale harbors higher tolerance of extreme crises compared to more “globalized” random networks. These results suggest that there can be a potential hidden cost in the ongoing globalization movement towards establishing less-constrained, trans-regional economic links between countries, by increasing vulnerability of the global economic system to extreme crises

No systematic effects of sampling direction on climate-growth relationships in a large-scale, multi-species tree-ring data set

Ring-width series are important for diverse fields of research such as the study of past climate, forest ecology, forest genetics, and the determination of origin (dendro-provenancing) or dating of archaeological objects. Recent research suggests diverging climate-growth relationships in tree-rings due to the cardinal direction of extracting the tree cores (i.e. direction-specific effect). This presents an understudied source of bias that potentially affects many data sets in tree-ring research. In this study, we investigated possible direction-specific growth variability based on an international (10 countries), multi-species (8 species) tree-ring width network encompassing 22 sites. To estimate the effect of direction-specific growth variability on climate-growth relationships, we applied a combination of three methods: An analysis of signal strength differences, a Principal Component Gradient Analysis and a test on the direction-specific differences in correlations between indexed ring-widths series and climate variables. We found no evidence for systematic direction-specific effects on tree radial growth variability in high-pass filtered ring-width series. In addition, direction-specific growth showed only marginal effects on climate-growth correlations. These findings therefore indicate that there is no consistent bias caused by coring direction in data sets used for diverse dendrochronological applications on relatively mesic sites within forests in flat terrain, as were studied here. However, in extremely dry, warm or cold environments, or on steep slopes, and for different life-forms such as shrubs, further research is advisable.</p

Stable oxygen isotopes in Romanian oak tree rings record summer droughts and associated large-scale circulation patterns over Europe

We present the first annual oxygen isotope record (1900 – 2016) from the latewood (LW) cellulose of oak trees (Quercus robur) from NW Romania. As expected, the results correlate negatively with summer relative humidity, sunshine duration and precipitation and positively with summer maximum temperature. Spatial correlation analysis reveals a clear signal reflecting drought conditions at a European scale. Interannual variability is influenced by large-scale atmospheric circulation and by surface temperatures in the North Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea. There is considerable potential to produce long and well-replicated oak tree ring stable isotope chronologies in Romania which would allow reconstructions of both regional drought and large-scale circulation variability over southern and central Europe

Growth-climate relations and the enhancement of drought signals in pedunculate oak (Quercus robur L.) tree-ring chronology in Eastern Hungary

This paper presents an analysis of the climatic factors affecting tree-ring growth in pedunculate oak (Quercus robur L.), one of the most important species of Hungarian forests. A 221-year oak chronology was elaborated, covering the period 1789 to 2009 AD. The daily climate data for a ~110 year stretch offered a detailed insight into the climate-growth relations. The correlation function reached a maximum (r > 0.4) in the case of precipitation in May-August, providing evidence that water availability is the main factor driving the oak growth in the eastern part of the Great Hungarian Plain. Although there was no significant linear relation with temperature in the long term, moving window correlation analysis revealed that temperature response changed substantially over the course of the 20th century. While positive correlation with winter temperature was characteristic in the first decades, later the response to summer temperature strengthened remarkably, reaching r = -0.569 by the end of the analysed period (years 1978-2007). While the vulnerability of oak to drought stress is common across Europe, in southern and central Europe high summer temperatures impair tree growth. The enhanced sensitivity of pedunculate oaks to the water balance in the eastern part of the Great Hungarian Plain allows to surmise the presence of an evolving tendency towards drought risk and vulnerability in the case of these oak stands

Genetic Alterations in Hungarian Patients with Papillary Thyroid Cancer

The incidence of thyroid cancers is increasing worldwide. Some somatic oncogene mutations (BRAF, NRAS, HRAS, KRAS) as well as gene translocations (RET/PTC, PAX8/PPAR-gamma) have been associated with the development of thyroid cancer. In our study, we analyzed these genetic alterations in 394 thyroid tissue samples (197 papillary carcinomas and 197 healthy). The somatic mutations and translocations were detected by Light Cycler melting method and Real-Time Polymerase Chain Reaction techniques, respectively. In tumorous samples, 86 BRAF (44.2 %), 5 NRAS (3.1 %), 2 HRAS (1.0 %) and 1 KRAS (0.5 %) mutations were found, as well as 9 RET/PTC1 (4.6 %) and 1 RET/PTC3 (0.5 %) translocations. No genetic alteration was seen in the non tumorous control thyroid tissues. No correlation was detected between the genetic variants and the pathological subtypes of papillary cancer as well as the severity of the disease. Our results are only partly concordant with the data found in the literature